…and starring Danny McBride in, “TOM THIBODEAU: The Wonder Years!”
No, the Suns are not terrorizing opponents. But lately, they have been tenderizing them, in advance of upcoming games versus the Atlanta Hawks.
Phoenix was the warm-up act for Oklahoma City over the past weekend, ahead of Atlanta’s Monday night thriller. As the Hawks were hanging on for dear life in OKC, the Suns had Minnesota Timberwolves fans biting their nails with the Suns, just days before their team headed south to visit Atlanta (7:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, Fox Sports North in MSP).
Will the Hawks offer themselves up as the entrée, following Minnesota’s appetizer? Or will Atlanta finally treat the fans who bothered to show up to a holiday feast?
Despite winning four of their last six overall, the Hawks (14-14) continue giving increasingly skeptical fans at the Strobelight Factory less and less reason to desire a return visit. Despite the halftime entertainment on tap at the end of this month, since mid-November Atlanta has performed at home exactly the way you might expect of a battle rapper named “Juzt 1 Chain”… half-baked efforts versus semi-serious competition, leading to one lonely W among the last six games in their own building.
It’s hard enough to get amped about heading downtown to see the Hawks during these wintry eves. It’s even harder when one considers the prospect that they might get shown up on their own floor by the likes of low-draw teams like New Orleans, Detroit, Orlando, and Charlotte. This is literally the Ish Smith Phase of the home schedule, yet the Hawks have been falling woefully short.
Never mind 2 Chainz. Keep losing at home to teams like Minnesota in mid-week, and it’ll take 2Pac crawling out from his grave just to fill up Philips’ lower bowl. Atlanta’s not the only NBA team struggling to keep their own fans enlivened and engaged, though.
The Wolves have the past two Rookies of the Year in Karl-Anthony Towns (22.3 PPG, 11.1 RPG; 28&15 vs. PHX) and Andrew Wiggins (22.0 PPG, 38.4 3FG%). They can boast of a highlight-reel-making dunkster who is just beginning to round out his offensive game in Zach LaVine (20.8 PPG, 38.1 3FG%, 86.2 FT%). They have a still fresh-faced point guard in Ricky Rubio (3.5 assist/turnover ratio) with an even fresher-faced backup, lotto rookie Kris Dunn, waiting in the wings.
On top of all that, they’ve got a new head coach in Tom Thibodeau, who won at least 45 games during all five seasons in his last NBA stop. None of that brimming potential has translated into win streaks (a win tonight would give them two in a row for the first time this season), or turnstiles turning, for Minnesota.
Sorry, Hawks fans, but it’s not looking too hot for that extra first-round draft pick in 2017, the one that cost us (“cost” may not be the proper word here) forward Adreian Payne. With the Wolves sitting at 8-19 (3.5 games behind division rival Portland; 1.5 games above the basement) and the Western Conference playoff picture calcifying by the day, it’s likely the lotto-protection on Minnesota’s first-rounder will simply carry over to 2018.
As often suggested previously, if the Wolves (zero playoff games since 2004) aren’t handing over this pick by 2020, the NBA franchise with the worst home-percentage attendance (outside of cavernous Auburn Hills) may have to relocate to Fargo, or perhaps the Corn Palace. It’s not like Atlanta needs to help them relinquish the pick, though, with losses tonight and next Monday in Minneapolis. And it isn’t like they’re not trying earnestly to get it to us.
In order, here are your top seven NBA teams in Net Rating efficiency during the FIRST halves of their games: Warriors, Clippers, Cavs, Raptors, Timberwolves, Rockets, Spurs… wait, the Timberwolves? One of these things is not like the other! Why are all the other teams ranging from 12-to-21 games above-.500, while Minnesota sticks out like a sore thumb, at 11 games below a break-even mark?
Pulling that off literally requires the league’s worst SECOND half rating and, indeed, the Wolves have been achieving that (minus-13.4 2nd-half net rating). That includes a 112.1 D-Rating (worst in NBA, not counting OTs) in back halves of games. In Houston over the weekend, they were enjoying a nine-point lead in the last minute of regulation before D’Antoniball happened, the Wolves done in by James Harden’s 10 points in OT.
Minnesota’s opponents are treated to 15.3 free throw shots per game (2nd-most in NBA, ahead of just the aforementioned Suns) in the third and fourth quarters, while shooting 38.7% on threes (2nd-highest in NBA, barely ahead of Dallas’ 38.8 opponent 3FG%).
You’d be waning, too, if your ears had to endure the dulcet tones of Coach Thibs for 48 minutes per night, plus locker room banter, plus practice runs. [WARNING: Unwavering Sam Mitchell Apologist talking!] Thibodeau was brought on to immerse this youthful bunch in the Dark Arts of Pick-and-Roll NBA defense.
The Wolves are impressionable, and it’s impossible for their coach to ever be tuned out (believe me, I’ve tried; the mute button is overrated). But his team, by design, is not yet instinctive. He hollers “BLUE!”, and they start looking around for Mr. Edwards.
Thibodeau was a raving success at his prior locales, in Boston (as an assistant) and Chicago (as the head honcho). But young pupils like Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, and Kevin Garnett literally walked in the door with some defensive aptitude. Not so with these young pups; Gorgui Dieng and Cole Aldrich are the closest thing to experienced defensive savants Minnesota has to offer. A defensive mindset has to be hammered home, and Thibs brings the vocal sledgehammer to every opponent possession.
On the floor, Minnesota’s not looking to Rubio, or KAT, or Dunn, to quarterback the defense. They’re receiving and interpreting instructions like a first-time IKEA furniture purchaser. The anticipation of what their coach is about to bark, and the reaction times needed for processing the directives, leaves them a step too slow against opposing pro offenses, especially when the game shifts to the final quarters. [/WARNING]
Tonight’s game will be a test to see how much the Hawks have learned about their own resiliency, specifically when opponents go on runs in their house.
Against visitors like the Pelicans (66 first-half points), Magic (72 first-half points) and Pistons (58 first-half points), Hawks players abandoned many of Coach Mike Budenholzer’s gameplans, resigned to tipping their caps while pumping up personal stats with iso-ball, in attempts to scurry behind boxscores after the games. The Wolves are going to sprint and leap and play their tender hearts out in the first half. Will we see a different response from Atlanta during, and after, Minnesota’s attempts to string buckets together?
Dwight Howard (back) remains questionable for tonight’s contest, and his ability to contain Towns from putting up mouthpiece-spewing numbers would be beneficial to Atlanta’s cause. Only 21, Towns has deft footwork in and around the paint, reminding yours truly [WARNING: Exaggerated Equivalency Ahead!] of peak Al Jefferson. But unlike Big Al, this young Wolf is blessed with superior range and hops, and less of an affinity for Popeye’s. [/WARNING].
Towns will likely switch off with Dieng to defend whichever is the cooler Hawk among Howard and Paul Millsap (30 points, 11 boards at OKC on Monday), in hopes of averting foul trouble. Along with Dieng, the league’s third-best offensive rebounding team (NBA-high 16.0 second-chance PPG) is likely to crash the glass when Howard isn’t patrolling, and Towns will try his wares at three-point shooting (34.0 3FG%, 36.4% on the road) when Hawk defenders don’t properly account for him.
Wiggins’ improving jumpshot (also 40.0 2FG% from 16 feet out) has added a second dimension to his contributions (scoring, and not much else) on the floor. The long-distance shooting comes at the expense of his ability to post up fellow wings, something Maple Jordan (then-career-best 33 points in his last visit to Atlanta, in November 2015) could exploit against Kent Bazemore or backup guard Kyle Korver.
Wiggins is, however, likely to stray off his assignments when on defense, while LaVine often gets caught anticipating his next highlight-reel offensive play. Baze needs to exploit that by continuing to attack the paint and make plays, as he did in OKC (4-for-7 2FGs, 6 assists) on Monday. It’s a similar deal for Kyle (6 assists, including the game-winning dime to Paul Millsap; 2-for-4 3FGs vs. OKC), who continues to look for other open shooters even as he strains to find daylight along the three-point line.
Dennis Schröder (31 points, 10-for-10 FTs, 8 assists vs. OKC) must execute plays quickly and force the pace of play at both ends, disallowing the Wolves from getting comfortable in halfcourt battles. He needs to be ready to attack just as Minnesota defenders adjust to the siren song of their head coach’s demands, but avoid the crafty hands of Rubio, whose team-high 1.5 SPG is currently a career-low.
Turnovers are never so much a problem when you’re averaging 20.6 PPG and 7.7 APG with shooting splits of 53.8/50.0/88.2 in a calendar month, values Schröder has been producing in December. But the Hawks will want to ensure his turnovers (3.1 TOs/game this month, down from 3.3 in prior games) do not translate into easy offense for Minnesota at the other end. Forwards Thabo Sefolosha and Millsap have to run the floor to keep Wiggins, Towns and LaVine from making quick transition sprints to the other hoop.
Atlanta’s beleaguered bench must step things up several notches, and there’s no better outfit to show improvements against than the underutilized Timberwolves (league-low 13.9 minutes per game by reserves). Especially when pitted against the likes of Shabazz Muhammad, Aldrich and Nemanja Bjelica, plus-performances by Tim Hardaway, Jr., Korver, and Mike Muscala are essential to take pressure off the Atlanta starters.
Right now, Bob Rathbun could be a better option than Mike Manbun (last 5 games: 86 minutes, 1.6 D-Rebs per game) when it comes to securing boards. The 6-foot-11 Muscala has only two more defensive rebounds on the season than Dennis, and that stat needs to change, stat.
Whether it’s Lou or Marvin Williams, Hawks fans have had enough of the ex-Hawk Makes Good tour routinely coming through Philips Arena. If anybody is talking about Adreian Payne’s evening by game’s end, it’s going to be just another long night at the Factory.
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
