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Catapult

Squawkers
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Posts posted by Catapult

  1. The odds presented are the combined probabilities of all possible outcomes weighted by their individual probability.

    Case probability for Blazers to get 2nd pick:

    -Bulls (with 199 combinations = 19,9% probability) wins the 1st pick.

    -Bulls' combinations are removed, so there would be 801 combinations left.

    -Blazers have 250 combinations.

    -probability for the Blazers to win the second pick in case Bulls won the first pick is 250/801=31,2%

    -combining the probabilities Bulls-1st and Blazers-2nd = 19,9% * 31,2% = 6,2%

    - repeat the calculation for 12 other lottery teams by replacing the Bulls' 1st pick probability with each teams probability to win the 1st pick (like 8,8% for Raptors)

    - Sum the combined probabilities

    - The sum of all the possible combinations where Team X picks first and Blazers pick second (where X is any other lottery team than Blazers) is... 21,4759587%, rounded to 3 decimals = 0.215

    So YES the numbers take into consideration the "missing" balls.

  2. "The question still remains.

    Why have a draft lottery anyway???"

    One obvious reason is to avoid the following (this is the worst case scenario):

    You got the next LBJ in the draft, the worst two teams with the same record face each other in the last game - so both teams CERTAINLY miss the top pick if they win an otherwise meaningless game. So they both want to loose. That is an awkward starting point to any ballgame.

    With the present weighted lottery loosing does not GUARANTEE a lot. But as only top 3 picks are subject to lottery, the negative effect to unlucky bad teams is reduced. I think the basic idea is sound, what could be discussed is are the weights fair and how many teams should be included in the lottery.

  3. "The extra "European Step" that drivers are allowed makes playing legit defense impossible on a one-on-one basis."

    European Step? I have always thought that the interpretation of the rule is more loose in US than in Europe - at least so it seems when you watch american players here in the finnish league.

  4. Denver & Earl Watson, 2 games 2 DNP coatches decision.

    -they must be so happy the got him from free agency for 29m$

    NYK & Channing Frye, 1st game DNP coatches decision.

    -has Larry Brown found his new Darko?

    Milwaukee & Andrew Bogut, 2 games, 35 mpg, 45.5% fg, 11.5 ppg, 13 rpg, 1.5 bpg, 2.5 apg, 0.5 topg

    -not a bad start

    Sacramento & SAR, 2 games 15.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg, zero wins, two losses

    -some things never change

    Boston & Mark Blount, 19pts, 5reb, 2blocks,

    -they must have convinced him that it is a contract year again...

    Atlanta & Warriors front court (Murphy, Foyle, Biendrins, Taft, Cabarkapa) 15 FGA, 14 FGM = 93%!

  5. "Give me a break man, I'm not gonna lose any sleep if we don't go 3-0"

    Didn't really mean you personally - just an general statement that people sometimes expect rather improbable outcomes especially when multiple events are in question.

  6. "Thanks for the stats bro...they mean nothing at all...but, thanks anyway...."

    A little probability thinking would save a lot a people a lot of dissappointments...

    Just keep in mind the difference between what to expect, what is possible and what you hope for.

  7. Quote:


    Why did he decide to sign with the Hornets?

    "We looked at a lot of teams, but we thought New Orleans is a great place where
    he will have an opportunity to hopefully contribute right away
    ," Fleisher said.


    The answer is right there. He has established himself in Europe and I guess he doesn't want to get buried to the bench in a deep team because he's a rookie in nba. He wants to play and probably get a lot of shots too, not speculate where he has the best short term opportunity to go deep into the playoffs as a 3rd or 4th man off the bench.

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