We're all the way at the bottom
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A few weeks ago we documented what has become a lethargic offseason. While a number of teams have been busy, only two -- the Bulls and Hornets -- have done enough to give themselves a major boost in the playoff hunt next year.
The Pacers will join that group if they finally close on the Al Harrington deal with the Hawks. Sources say a deal is close and awaiting approval from Pacers owner Herb Simon. It's hard to fathom that Simon will pass on an opportunity to get Harrington at a below-market-value deal while giving up only a first-round pick in return.
What's interesting to me is the fact that so many bad teams did little to improve themselves this summer. A few, like the Blazers and Raptors, had significant movement. While I don't think it will be enough to push either into the playoffs, at least they can tell fans they're trying.
On the other hand, how do the advertising whizzes for the Sixers, Warriors, Knicks, Sonics and Hawks sell their fans on next season?
"Wait 'til '08!" doesn't sound like a slogan that's going to sell a lot of season tickets.
Here's a look at five lottery teams that have remained surprisingly quiet this offseason.
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are the most surprising of the 2006 offseason underachievers. They're coming off a disappointing lottery appearance. They own the fourth-highest payroll in the league. Allen Iverson looks like he already has his bags packed. They even have legit trade bait in Iverson and Samuel Dalembert.
Everyone thought the team was in for a radical overhaul.
And what have they done? They let John Salmons walk away and then signed Willie Green, coming off a season-long injury, to an overpriced deal.
Ugh. That's it, Sixers fans.
The fact that GM Billy King backed away from trading Iverson probably says more about Iverson's trade value than it does about Philly's resolve to change. The Sixers just didn't get the offers they were hoping for and don't seem to want to go into full rebuilding mode.
So what can Sixers fans look forward to this year?
While almost every team in the Atlantic Division improved modestly, the Sixers have nowhere to go but down. Look for them to battle the Knicks for the worst record in the Atlantic.
Golden State Warriors
After killing the Warriors for years, I got on the bandwagon last fall and predicted that Golden State would break the longest playoff drought in the league. Baron Davis and Jason Richardson gave them one of the most promising backcourts in the league. Warriors VP Chris Mullin was raving about Mike Dunleavy's improvement over the summer and eventually signed him to a substantial $45 million extension. Troy Murphy was healthy. Ike Diogu was supposed to add rebounding and toughness in the paint.
But once January hit, the wheels came off. The Warriors were 17-14 on December 31, but went 3-9 in January and never recovered. By the end of the season, the team had won just 34 games, duplicating their miserable 2004-05 outing. Losing Baron Davis for 28 games was part of the problem, but the truth is that the Warriors were just 23-31 when he played.
The last month was ugly. They endured a nine-game losing streak that stretched from March into April. It appeared that several players had quit. According to one player on the team, the tension between some players on the team and head coach Mike Montgomery was combustible.
Mullin went into the summer vowing to change the team's chemistry around, but three months later . . . the Warriors look the same.
Mullin has been working the phones all summer but has very little to show for it. He did manage to move Derek Fisher's hard-to-trade contract, but he got nothing but future salary cap relief in return.
The free agent market has been unkind. The team made a major push for Al Harrington, but the Hawks didn't want the bloated contract of Troy Murphy or Mike Dunleavy in return.
The Warriors' problem is that they continue to remain on the fence between winning and development. As always, they have a number of talented young players (Monta Ellis, Mickael Pietrus, Andris Biedrins, Diogu and rookie Patrick O'Bryant) in the pipeline. They don't want to trade them.
However, their veterans, with the exception of Jason Richardson, are virtually untradeable. Mullin is guilty for most of the bad contracts. He vastly overpaid Murphy, Dunleavy and Adonal Foyle, limiting his ability to make changes to his team. A number of GMs have told me they've been offered all three, but no one will touch them. The word around the league is that Davis is also available, but given his injury history and rep as a chemistry killer, no one will touch him.
If the Warriors can't trade the millstones that are dragging them down (those four are still owed a combined $182 million over the course of their Golden State careers) and refuse to trade the young talent that can't get them anywhere yet, then Warriors fans can rest assured that another 30-to-35-win season is coming.
New York Knicks
Last year the Knicks played for the right to hand the Bulls the No. 2 pick in the draft. Isiah Thomas still argues that he'd take Eddy Curry over who the Bulls got -- Tyrus Thomas -- any day. We'll see if the feels the same way once he's forced to hand over the Knicks' first-round pick to the Bulls again next summer.
If the Bulls hit the jackpot with the Knicks' No. 1 pick (and the right to draft Greg Oden), there could be a riot in New York.
As it stands, the Knicks' biggest offseason change is at coach. Larry Brown, the Knicks' savior this time last year, is out. Isiah Thomas, the Knicks' master architect, is in. I actually think the Knicks will be better with Isiah at the helm.
Brown sabotaged the team, in my opinion, to convince James Dolan that the roster needed a major overhaul. Thomas wasn't going to agree with Brown's assessment of Isiah's roster, so Brown dramatized the problems for Dolan.
Brown used 42 different starting lineups, an NBA record, last year in New York. Everyone was confused. No one knew where they stood. You could start one game and get a DNP the next. It was a mess.
With Thomas fighting for his professional life, things will be different. The Knicks do have talent and he'll lean heavily on Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, Jamal Crawford, Eddy Curry and probably Channing Frye to save his job.
The Knicks, with a steadier hand at the helm, will probably win 10 more games next season.
However, the rest of their summer has been anticlimactic by comparison. The Knicks did land Jared Jeffries in free agency, but I'm not a big fan. He's long and he hustles and since he doesn't shoot the ball, he'll actually be popular with all of the Knicks' gunners. But I don't think he wins New York any extra games. Ditto for rookies Renaldo Balkman and Mardy Collins, who likely won't see the light of day this year.
Surprisingly, the Knicks have restrained themselves from being more aggressive. Jalen Rose and Maurice Taylor are both very tradeable because they are in the last year of their contracts. Nate Robinson and David Lee have trade value as well.
But the word out of New York is that Isiah has no choice but to play the hand he's dealt. Dolan apparently isn't in the mood to swap any more expiring contracts for long-term deals. The Knicks' payroll is at an absurd $122 million this year.
Thomas fought for every one of the players on his roster. Now he'll find out whether they were worth fighting for. If this were a fantasy team, the answer may be yes. But as an NBA team, the Knicks' long-term future still looks very bleak.
Seattle SuperSonics
The team was everyone's darling in 2004-05 but reverted to form last season. The Sonics showed they could still light it up offensively, but so could every team that played against them.
This year, uncertainty surrounding the sale of the franchise has the potential to add to their woes. While the team did sign restricted free agent Chris Wilcox to a three-year deal on Tuesday, Mickael Gelabale, last year's second-round draft pick, is the only major addition to the club so far.
It's difficult to see what the long-term strategy in Seattle is. For this team to be a serious playoff contender, players like Wilcox, Luke Ridnour, Robert Swift, Johan Petro, Mouhamed Saer Sene and Gelebale are going to have to play over the heads.
If the team fails again, there's a good likelihood that potential free agent Rashard Lewis will bolt for greener pastures next summer. That leaves the team with a number of promising young players and an aging Ray Allen.
I know most Sonics fans quit caring when Gary Payton was shipped out of town. For the dozen or so that are left, it may be time to retire those jerseys.
Atlanta Hawks
What is Billy Knight doing?
That's been a key question in the NBA for the past several summers.
An ownership feud lies at the heart of much of the Hawks' inability to get things done this summer, but even that has to be contextualized. The feud began, in large part, over the performance of Knight. Steve Belkin thought Knight was killing the franchise and disagreed vehemently over giving up so many assets for the right to give Joe Johnson a max deal. The rest of the Hawks owners disagreed and a year later, they're still in court shouting it out.
In the meantime, the Hawks' hands have basically been tied. (Were Johnson and Knight really worth all of this?)
The drafting of Shelden Williams signaled that the Hawks were serious about getting a player who could help them now. But after watching Williams' miserable performance in the summer league, there are now serious questions about how NBA ready he really is.
They did throw a lot of money this summer at Speedy Claxton (a diminutive, oft-injured scoring guard in a point guard's body) and plan on giving Lorenzen Wright (a 30-year-old center who averaged 5 points and 5 rebounds last season) a two-year deal when they trade Al Harrington. Neither move will push them far out of the basement of the East.
Yes, expected improvements by Josh Smith, Josh Childress and Marvin Williams should help, but all of that will be offset by losing Harrington, the team's second-leading scorer and only real inside presence.
Maybe next year, when the Hawks' ownership question is answered, the Hawks will finally be able to rise out of the rubble. But this year? Pray for Greg Oden.
Chad Ford covers the NBA for ESPN Insider.
