“I WILL NOT EAT ANY MORE CRANBERRY BLISS BARS. I WILL NOT EAT ANY MORE CRANBERRY BLISS BARS. I WILL NOT EAT ANY…”
Will the Atlanta Hawks widen the Eastern Conference Crab Barrel? Heading into another tough matchup with the Raptors in Toronto (7:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, TSN in T-Dot), followed by a Saturday night trip back home to face the Hornets, it’s sure shaping up that way.
Our half-baked Hawks found plenty of offense on Tuesday. Problem was, they allowed Orlando (without Nik Vucevic) to get plenty more, in a 131-120 torching that was just the latest in a trend of embarrassing and/or lopsided losses. Orlando came in as the worst offense in the NBA outside of Philly or Dallas (or Atlanta). Guess who currently has the best?
Toronto (18-7) is threatening to shatter all-time NBA records for offensive efficiency. At 115.3 points per 100 possessions, that rate would be the highest in recorded league history (since such records were first kept in 1983-84). It’s better than Golden State’s current 113.5 O-Rating, and better than the Showtime Lakers of 1986-87, history’s current season-long leader. In more modern times, only Steve Nash and Alvin Gentry’s Suns of 2009-10 (112.3) came close to what the Dubs and Raps are doing right now.
Toronto is accomplishing this with a 2-guard that makes just 28.6% of his threes. They’re led, of course, by DeMar DeRozan (career-high 28.0 PPG; 2.9 more shots per game than last season, in 0.3 fewer minutes). Thanks largely to DeRozan, Toronto’s the only team that averages over one point per possession (1.03) on isolation plays, resulting in scores nearly half (49.6%) the time. Interestingly, the Hawks have a league-high 49.6 eFG% on isos, but as you know, relying just 6.0% of the Budball offense on those plays renders that fact trivial.
The Raps are breaking offensive records while averaging just 20.4 APG (26th in NBA). The antithesis of Budball, Dwane Casey’s club knows that their assists come not from passing, but in setting screens that allow Kyle Lowry (last ten games: 23.4 PPG, 56.8 FG%, 59.2 3FG%, 7.3 APG) to improvise.
In addition to isos, the Raps (guided by Lowry) lead the NBA with scores on 46.8% of P&R ballhandler plays, their 50.7 eFG% on those plays a league-best, their 0.96 points per possession behind only Portland’s 0.97. The roll man hardly gets touches (28th in play frequency), yet even they feast, the Raptors scoring on an NBA-high 57.7% of roll man plays.
Unlike the Hawks, who are constantly a work in progress/regress, there is no round-hole training in store for the Raps’ many square pegs. Casey allows his top talent to control the ball and make the plays they’re most comfortable executing. By doing so, his team becomes the RON RAPRS, by eliminating the TOs (12.3 turnovers per 100 possessions, 2nd-lowest in league to Charlotte’s 12.0). Against the eight teams that turn the ball over the least, the Hawks’ record is 0-5, allowing 126.7 PPG in those last three matchups.
Included in that group is the 128-84 pasting endured at the hands of the Raps on this Air Canada Centre floor just two weeks ago, the biggest beatdown Toronto has ever enjoyed against anybody pretending to be an NBA outfit.
The Hawks let the bottom fall completely out on December 3rd with a 42-14 Toronto advantage in the final quarter, Atlanta unable to keep the lead from widening even after Casey put four backups and rookie Pascal Siakam on the floor to close things out (our old friend Bebe Nogueira had 9 points and two blocks in the 4th). Toronto players coughed up the ball just 12 times (28 assists; 13-for-24 3FGs), compared to the Hawks’ 18 (21 assists; 7-for-28 3FGs), a modest number for the visitors these days.
The Hawks can give themselves half a chance tonight, not just by keeping the turnover margin close, but by keeping Toronto Canada-Dry at the line, where they get 26.1 shots per contest (second in the East only to…? Yep, Charlotte’s 26.5). Atlanta actually did this two weeks ago, “holding” Toronto to a season-low (for both teams) 11 FT attempts, or else that 44-point margin might have gotten even worse.
Hawks defenders have to draw lines from the rim out to the three-point break lines, and keep Lowry and DeRozan from getting open or lightly-contested looks from within the “funnel zone.” On-ball defenders need to ICE Toronto’s sideline screens and make their dynamic duo work from the corners and baselines. Dennis Schröder and Thabo Sefolosha should rely on the baseline/endline plus help from the Hawks’ bigs to keep Lowry and DeRozan out of the paint and settling for well-contested shots.
Paul Millsap (DNP @ TOR on Dec. 3) allowed Serge Ibaka to have a field day from outside on Tuesday, and must rotate out to the perimeter and contest Patrick Patterson (season-high 17 points vs. ATL on Dec. 3) whenever the Raptor forward is in the game. Atlanta’s wings have to help the bigs clog the middle, and make Toronto’s passes out to corner-oriented shooters like Terrence Ross (44.7 3FG%) and DeMarre Carroll a tougher task.
Swapping out the TNT duo (Timmy ‘n Thabo) with the K&K Music Factory (Kyle ‘n Kent) has led to good vibrations at the starts of the first and second halves for Atlanta (last 3 games: starters 5th in O-Rating, 14th in D-Rating). But it’s also led to a lack of explosiveness by the reserves (last 3 games: bench 12th in O-Rating, 28th in D-Rating).
There’s no help coming for the M&Ms (Moose and Malcolm), who have melted after energetic starts to the season, even before losing the offense/defense contributions of Hardaway and Sefolosha. Better coaching effort is needed for Mike Muscala (plus/minus: +4.3 first 11 games, -7.2 last 14 games, no “positives” last 9 games) and Malcolm Delaney (+8.5 first ten games, -8.0 last ten games with one “positive”) to better understand their defensive roles.
The reserves also must stop getting caught out of position when transitioning to D, or else they’ll continue to get blitzed by benches like Toronto, whose offensive efficiency (117.7 O-Rating and +15.1 net rating, best in NBA) is even better than the starters (113.7, 3rd in NBA).
When bench players like Orlando’s Elfrid Payton (career-highs of 26 points AND 14 assists, +47 on/off vs. ATL) and Jeff Green (+55 on/off vs. ATL) are getting carte blanche shots, someone is not doing their homework. Ross (6-for-8 FGs vs. ATL on Dec. 3) has decided to use breakaway dunks to advertise his candidacy for All-Star Saturday Night, and Atlanta needs to keep him off SportsCenter/SportsCentre tonight.
Mike Budenholzer might help the struggling bench out by allowing a third “T” (rookie Taurean Prince) to share some of Kyle Korver’s and Kent Bazemore’s duties. Prince has been relegated to spot duty (less than 2 minutes) in the past two games. Despite some struggles in the past couple weeks, including his last visit to Toronto, expanded minutes for Taurean could help Atlanta better contest opponent shots.
If Muscala struggles to make a positive defensive impact from the jump, Coach Bud should not hesitate to turn to a third “K” (ex-Raptor Kris Humphries), if only in search of an immediate spark until the Hawks finish benefitting from the insurance collection on the fourth “T” (Tiago Splitter).
Thanks to a conference full of underwhelming teams, the off-days (five in the past six) have helped the Hawks (12-13) more than anything they’ve done on the floor. As frustrating as Atlanta’s season has been over the past month, you look up in the standings, and there is Charlotte, the East’s third-seed of the moment, just 1.5 games ahead of them. It’s almost a mirage!
Taking each game seriously, and one at a time, and pulling off at least two out of their next three, might be just enough for the Hawks and Hornets (14-12) to trade places in the standings. Continuing to perform with predictable unpredictability, though, would have more and more Hawks fans staring in the other direction.
Charlotte’s Kemba Walker was excused from tonight’s game in Boston for personal reasons, and will be ready to go on Saturday night in Atlanta. A two-game weekend losing streak prior to a trip to OKC would allow the Hawks to build a bridge for fellow division foes Washington (1.5 GB) and Orlando (2.0 GB) back into playoff contention. The Hawks claim there’s still plenty of camaraderie in the locker room, but letting the Wizards and Magic up for air is not the kind of bridge-building anyone has in mind.
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
