“Ever since we stole DeMarre, you…”
DeMarre Who?
That’s not a question the Atlanta Hawks would dare to ask. That’s his current employer talking.
The Toronto Raptors, hosting Atanta as the Hawks conclude an eventful road trip tonight (7:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast, TSN2), have more than just skated by without GM Masai Ujiri’s biggest free agent prize. Toronto (42-20) seeks to extend their run to 22-6 since DeMarre Carroll underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in January. They’re 29-11 sans JYD all season.
Anthony Who? That’s a more valid question. The only 1st-overall-NBA-draftee who ever scored less than Anthony Bennett did over the course of the Canadian’s abbreviated NBA career (543 career points in 2.5 seasons) was picked by the Hawks. The Milwaukee Hawks, that is.
Mark “Don’t Call Me Haywoode” Workman was selected by the Hawks in the 1952 Draft, then sent packing a few games into the season, putting in time with the Warriors and Bullets before calling it a career at 386 points, leaving behind the game for a career as a bowling salesman in Asia. But, I digress. Bennett (29.6 FG%) never could turn a corner, and was cut loose by his hometown team, making room for former Golden Stater Jason Thompson. The Raptors are doing quite fine without his contributions, too.
How are the Raptors pulling away from the Eastern Conference pack? The secret lies at the very bottom of the standings, where the Knicks, Nets, and 76ers, all fellow Atlantic Division opponents, are all huddled together. Toronto is 10-1 in the Atlantic, and last lost to a division foe on November 10, a 2-point loss to the Knicks, without Carroll or Terrence Ross. Feasting on the Southeast last season (12-4) was integral to the Hawks’ magical rise to the top of the conference, and Toronto, who has never won 50 games in their two-decade history, is following that same recipe.
While Atlanta was doing quite well to start their 2014-15 campaign, it wasn’t really until last January in Toronto, when Jeff Teague expertly handcuffed Kyle Lowry, and the very next night when the Hawks befuddled the Bulls at the United Center, that the NBA at-large pulled up a chair and began to pay attention. After solid contributions in both L.A. and Utah, Teague (last 2 games: 23.0 PPG, 51.5 FG%, 60.0 3FG%) is out to remind the Raptors they’re not the only team currently thriving without DMC around.
The 2015 Hawks got their 42nd victory in February by toppling the Warriors, and was sitting at 50-13 at this same time last year, yet just about everyone was pumping the brakes on NBA Finals aspirations. Not so up here in T-Dot in 2016. To fend off the skeptics, it always helps to have a hip, social-media-relevant, globally-admired ambassador perched in the front row. Besides a Drizzle or two, it also helps to have consistent play from an All-Star-caliber point guard, something that’s been Lowry’s issue for two half-baked seasons, before this one.
Lowry was unearthed after nearly getting traded to the Knicks in 2013, averaging 20.4 PPG after the 2014 All-Star Break as the Raptors came alive. After making his first ASG trip last year, Lowry struggled with injuries and shooting (37.3 post-Break FG%, assists down from 7.2 to 5.4 APG). He wasn’t much more than a bystander as Paul Pierce’s Wizards swept Toronto in the opening round of the 2015 playoffs, their second-straight first-round exit.
With all of Toronto’s sports attention affixed to him -- it’s not like the Leafs are doing anything -- Lowry has no appetite for another letdown. Since serving as the host for his second ASG, the Raptors point guard is averaging 25.7 PPG and 7.8 APG, both 2nd in the East, hitting 43.1 percent of his threes along the way to 54.7 percent from the floor. He dropped 43 on LeBron and the Cavs on this floor two weeks ago, including the clinching jumper with four seconds to go. And he’s also tied with Chris Paul atop the NBA with 2.2 steals per game this season.
We haven’t even mentioned Toronto’s leading scorer yet. Lowry shared his Player of the Month honor for January with his fellow All-Star, DeMar DeRozan, the shooting guard who’s enjoying career-highs of 23.5 PPG, 84.5 FT% and an almost-respectable 33.3 3FG%. Of course, Toronto’s double-barreled offensive attack doesn’t work by way of DeRozan jacking lots of long-range jumpshots. 31% of DeRozan’s points come from trips to the free throw line. In the NBA East, that’s a higher proportion than anyone (min. 50 games played) aside from his teammate, center Bismack Biyombo (31.7% of points from FTs).
Key to the Hawks, or anyone, stifling the Raptors offense (107.1 points per 100 possessions, a shade behind Cleveland atop the East, NBA-high 114.0 post-Break) is disallowing DeRozan and Lowry (83.6 FT%) from benefiting from referee charity.
Any Toronto possession that doesn’t end in: (1) free throws from that duo; (2) uncontested perimeter jumpers from Lowry, Ross, and Patterson; or (3) easy putbacks for Jonas Valanciunas and Biyombo, is a good possession from Atlanta’s standpoint. Teague, Kyle Korver, Thabo Sefolosha, Dennis Schröder and Kent Bazemore will have their hands full trying to coax Lowry and DeRozan into settling for long, inefficient jumpshots without fouling them in the process.
Neither team shot the ball well back when the Raps visited Philips Arena on December 2. But Lowry was able to carry Toronto to a 96-86 victory not just from 7-for-10 shooting inside the arc (6-for-7 FGs at the rim, five in the final nine minutes) but from 11-for-12 free throw shooting. Toronto was down nine at the start of the fourth quarter but went on a 39-20 blitz behind Lowry to win going away.
Toronto’s only other double-digit-average scorer, Valanciunas was out of that December game. But the Dinos got plenty of help from Biyombo (5 O-Rebs) and our old friend Bebe Nogueira (career-high 7 boards), who can probably spell Mississauga by now with so many D-League trips. The old boxout rules apply for Al Horford, Paul Millsap and former Raptor Kris Humphries. Daddy-to-be Mike Scott took an early flight back to the ATL.
Valanciunas (career-highs 12.7 PPG, 3.2 O-Rebs per game) is having his best offensive season, but he becomes a liability at the other end, such that it’s usually Biyombo helping the Raptors close things out. It’s a good matchup for Al Horford, who hasn’t had to do too much heavy lifting offensively, to get the Hawks going early. Tossing out the Flakers game, in 3 of Atlanta’s last 4 contests, they’ve been outscored by an average of 32.0 to 22.3 in the opening quarter.
Ujiri previously pilfered the Hawks roster for Lou Williams, who rewarded him with a Sixth Man of the Year performance in 2015. But after enduring last year’s playoff flop, Ujiri brought in Biyombo and Carroll to allow Dwane Casey’s club to finally get serious about defense. At least until Carroll returns, defense is the one area where the Raptors (Lowry’s thefts aside) haven’t been up to snuff.
Brook Lopez wore out Valanciunas and company with 35 points on Tuesday night, as it took Toronto until mid-way through the third quarter to finally get serious about cutting down the Nets. In the prior two games of this seven-game home stand, they allowed over 110 points in regulation to the Rockets and Blazers.
As long as the offense is clicking, the Raptors know they don’t really need Carroll (who may return in a week or so) until it’s time to face-guard LeBron this spring. But they also want to lock down the best seed they can, and it won’t happen giving up so many buckets at the other end.
Since the All-Star Break, the Raps’ D-Rating of 110.4 opponent points per-100 ranks 24th and wing players have made them pay in the 3-point corners (league-worst 53.1 opponent 3FG% in left corner, 46.9% from the right). When DeRozan and Ross are caught slipping, Korver and Bazemore have to get in position for shots and make them pay.
At the start of this road trip, you read here that at least since the NBA Playoffs went 16 teams deep 32 years ago, no Eastern Conference squad ever missed the playoffs with a winning road record. On top of that, just four teams (Pacers ’97, Wizards ’98, heat ’02, Knicks ‘14) have missed the playoffs in the East with an away-game record of 18-23, the best mark among teams on the outside sitting in.
Before heading home for a tough weekend doubleheader, Atlanta (17-16 on road) will aim to tie Cleveland and Toronto in the East with their 18th road victory tonight. They’ll also return to the Air Canada Centre to close out a busy month. No matter the eventual seeding, the Hawks’ postseason outlook will look brighter the more frequently they can pull off impressive wins away from home.
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
