Say, did you know that the “De” in DeMarre stands for “Dónde estás?”
Telephone poles throughout Ontario are plastered with “Missing!” posters, fans of the Toronto Raptors pleading for the return of their Junkyard Dawg II. On the verge of the first 50-win season in franchise history, the Raptors hope to hand the Atlanta Hawks not only another L tonight (7:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast, NBATV, TSN), but also a flashlight, to help them out with the search for DeMarre Carroll.
This JYD isn’t just any pooch, mind you. Toronto made him the top priority that the Hawks could not this past summer, a priority that costs them a team-high $14.5 million annual average, over this and the next three seasons. That’s nearly six times as much as Atlanta paid for their defensive stalwart, hustle hound, and postseason savior in 2015, a salary that actually went down a smidgen from 2014.
After a modest 23 games, Carroll, who turns 30 this summer, surprised many with the announcement in January that he would be getting his knee scoped, and would miss some time. That’s okay, thought the Raptors’ faithful… so long as he’s back in time for the playoff push.
Besides, Toronto was just beginning to make their power moves up the Eastern Conference standings without him, supercharged by the dynamic duo of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan and bolstered by a supporting cast of improved players. Even with Junkyard Doggone, the Raps got blown out by top-ranked Cleveland, and then went on a 27-7 tear, including a thrilling home win over the Cavs last month with Lowry dropping a career-high 43 points. How good might they get once DMC gets back? There’s no need to rush things!
“I mean, yeah, that’s what it’s all about, having him 100 percent when things matter, especially as we get closer to the playoffs,” DeRozan optimistically told the Toronto Star, after Carroll hobbled through his last game back in January. “Before we know it we’re going to look up and it’s going to be March, April. As long as we get guys 100 percent, that’s all that matters.”
Well, after some signals that DMC would be working his way back into the Raptation in March, he has essentially disappeared from sight. Carroll has been Tweeting and making PR appearances (most recently, reported by the Toronto Sun to be hanging around the ATL on personal matters). But he hasn’t spoken to the media about his recuperation status since February. The calendar is turning to April, and now fans are growing as jittery as a Tim Hortons addict.
Was there a setback in recovery? How bad is it? This guy was supposed to be their LeBron Impeder. Not Terrence Ross, not DeRozan, not rookie Norman Powell or James Johnson. This guy. Yet, not until this morning did the Raptors express renewed optimism that he’ll be back on the court before the regular season ends. Can Carroll work his way back into the rotation, and be productive, in time? With the investment they’ve made, will it be wise to just shut him down for the season, and simply grin and bear it without him?
Those who asserted before the season began that the Hawks would sorely miss the presence of Carroll, especially once their ninth-consecutive playoffs tip off, are correct. What few could possibly have imagined is that the Raptors might miss him even more. Yet now, there’s hardly time to even entertain those thoughts.
Elbow pasta, elbow bursitis. It’s always best if you drain them. Lowry has been playing through soreness in his shooting elbow, he says, since mid-January. That was back when he and DeRozan shared Player of the Month honors and the Raps soared, just ahead of the All-Star Game that he and DeRozan played in while his team hosted. Toronto went from being tied with the Hawks at 21-15 when DeMarre exited, both teams looking up at the Bulls in the standings, to joining the Cavs as the class of the East.
Then, ten days ago, Lowry’s elbow pain and swelling flared up again after a fall against the Magic. He was rested against Boston and then tried playing through the discomfort, but the results on the scoreboard – a 1-3 record, with the sole win against residual Pelicans – and the box score – Lowry’s 23.9 FG%, 19.2 3FG%, and 54.2 FT% in three of those games – were less than stellar. Immediately after a blowout loss at the Air Canada Centre to the blazing-hot OKC Thunder, a struggling Lowry went to get his elbow drained of fluid.
This isn’t just any bony joint, mind you. In Canada, this is The People’s Elbow. No less than a nation full of rabid hoops fans have waited patiently for the breakthrough of a franchise that has been around for 21 seasons and have one, solitary playoff series victory (during Vince Carter’s Chapel Hill graduation year of 2001) to show for it.
Lowry’s back problems deep-sixed the Atlantic Division champions’ chances to advance in the 2015 playoffs. One year later, they’re relying on this star point guard’s elbow to make the passes, the steals, the help rebounds, the shots, that could lift this team to the conference finals – and beyond, if they dare.
To his credit, Lowry was forthcoming with the postgame media about the status of his sore elbow, and is allaying fears that it might impair his effectiveness going forward, particularly now that it’s drained and has undergone additional treatment since.
"It’s definitely something I don't want to play with, and I don't like to play with, but it is what it is," Lowry said to the press after the Thunder game. "It just gets you when you can’t extend your elbow and your arm the complete way. Hopefully we’ve got it taken care of. Hopefully I won't be playing and shooting as bad as I’ve been playing the last three games." Hopefully. He remains likely to play today despite sitting out shootaround this morning.
Like the team, Lowry remains furtive about the status of someone who should be a starting forward for Toronto by the time the playoffs get here. When pressed for his estimation of the time Carroll will need before he’s playoff-certified: "I don't know, Dr. Kyle isn't in the office today."
Two nights after the Raptors got triple-doubled by the magnificent Russell Westbrook, Jeff Teague’s arrival in town will certainly feel like a vacation for Lowry. But fresh from bewildering a desperate Derrick Rose, Teague (26 points @ CHI; 19 assists, ZERO turnovers in last 2 games) is in no mood to alleviate the Raptors’ woes.
No one in Atlanta was shedding a tear during the first few months of the year, when Jeff’s lower leg was forming his first-name initial repeatedly on the floor. There was little regard to his persistent issues with lateral movement and finishing in the paint (44.3 2FG%, lowest since his rookie year), especially with a wunderkind in Dennis Schröder waiting-in-the-wings to close games out. There certainly was no mercy from Lowry when he plopped 22 of Toronto’s 39 fourth-quarter points in Atlanta back on December 2, his Raptors storming ahead with the lead while Teague Time consisted of exasperated 2-for-8 FG shooting.
After sitting out a few games in November, through January Teague was shooting 41.7 FG% (43.1 2FG%) and averaging 13.7 PPG and 5.1 APG. Since February, he’s upped those values to 44.5 FG% (46.6 2FG%), 16.3 PPG and 6.8 APG. Jeff has also sunk his last 16 free throws, including four in the final 25 seconds to help his Hawks finally put the Bulls to bed.
Teague did compile 17 assists and just a pair of turnovers in two losses to Toronto, but is out to make amends after shooting just 9-for-31 in those games. Actually, the whole Hawks team is out to bounce back after sinking just 5 of 22 three-pointers (0-for-8 in the second half) in Chicago. That’s three nights after drawing more iron than you’d find in a Geritol bottle (5-for-32 3FGs, 2-for-24 in final three quarters) back home against the Bucks, and two nights after making just a third of their treys (5-for-15 3FGs) as the Pistons tried to claw their way back into the game.
The point guards’ effectiveness in seizing control of the game depends a lot on their teammates’ ability to bury perimeter shots and open up the floor. The Hawks continue to manufacture 16.1 wide-open three point shots per game (17.0 in March), 3.8 more than second-place Golden State, but have made just 34.7% of them (34.9 wide-open 3FG% in March), as none of the next ten most-frequent shooting teams converted at less than a 37.5% clip.
Atlanta relies more than most teams on bigs that are just recently expanding their ranges, like Paul Millsap (31.4 wide-open 3FG%) and Al Horford (35.6%; 39.5% in March), the latter being tied with Kent Bazemore (34.1%; 22.9% in March) for the team lead with 2.6 wide-open 3s per game. But that doesn’t excuse snipers like Kyle Korver (36.1 wide-open FG%; 42.9% in March) or Tim Hardaway, Jr. (38.6%; 40.0% in March) from the need to continue getting their weight up.
Hardaway has worked hard to carve a steady role in the Hawks rotation, but suffers from the dilemma suffered by shooting guards and swingmen of the past, like Lou Williams and Anthony Morrow. Specifically, if your shots aren’t falling, what ELSE are you doing out there? In the past three games, Junior (1-for-11 on 3FGs, 3-for-10 on 2FGs) has contributed one defensive rebound, 5 assists, four points-in-the-paint, three free throw points, and one steal, total. The Hawks need Hardaway to make a bigger imprint on both ends of the floor, especially to exploit their depth advantages on most nights.
It’s well-known that I’m wary of making too much about Hawk opponents’ injuries, so I’ll quickly add that Toronto has upgraded Terrence Ross to probable, after their fourth-leading scorer missed the past three games with a sore thumb. Raptors coach Dwane Casey has been turning instead to Powell, and the rookie guard is certainly plugging the gaps. He’s made 47.4% of his 3-point attempts in the past three games (15.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and brings much more energy on the defensive end than Ross (6.6 TO%, 3rd-best in NBA), who is much improved as an on-ball defender in his own right.
Still, the Hawks must find advantages among their reserves, and that begins in the backcourt. Dennis Schröder should have little problem outperforming Toronto’s Cory Joseph (32.5 FG%, 21.7 3FG%, 6.5 PPG, 2.7 APG this month), who has been struggling just as he’ll be needed to step things up while Lowry rehabs. Schröder and Hawks wing Thabo Sefolosha have to find ways to disrupt one of the NBA’s stingiest offenses in Toronto (NBA-low 6.5 opponent SPG; 14.3 opponent PPG off TOs, 3rd-lowest in NBA).
If Lowry remains ineffective as a shooter, DeRozan is likely to put more of the offense on his shoulders. Sefolosha (probable, despite continued stiffness in his ankle) will be needed to help force Toronto’s leading scorer into inefficient shots, without bailout fouls (…Paul!)
As was the case in Toronto’s March 10 victory over the Hawks (DeRozan 30 points, 11-for-20 FGs, 7-for-9 FTs), the Raptors are 7-3 when DeRozan gets more points than shot attempts taken (field goals plus free throws; 13-for-23 3FGs in those games). But they’re a pedestrian 8-7 when he gets at least 25% more attempts than points scored (3-for-26 on 3FGs in those games). They’re also 9-1 when he’s granted 14 or more free throw attempts, 10-1 when he makes more than ten of them.
Over the course of a long career, former Raptor Kris Humphries’ 7.2 RPG against Toronto is his highest mark against any NBA team, his 8.1 PPG the best against any Eastern Conference foe. While undoubtedly much of that production came against guys named Bargnani and Garbajosa, Humphries will play a role in establishing defensive-rebounding parity for the Hawks’ big men as Toronto rotates Bismack Biyombo, Patrick Patterson and Jason Thompson behind Luis Scola and Jonas Valanciunas. Hampered by a slow pace of play, opponents average just 31.3 D-Rebs per game against the Raptors, second-lowest in the league.
Horford (3-for-5 3FGs, 5-for-9 2FGs @ TOR on Mar. 10) and Millsap must continue to force opposing bigs to play faster, spurred on by aggressive guard play and ball movement. Atlanta’s perimeter shooters have little excuse against a Raptors team that allows opponents to make 37.5% of three-pointers, second-most in the league.
Take care of business on the interior, find and convert open shots, and continue making offenses work outside of their comfort zones for whatever points they can get. And by the fourth quarter, the courtside rappers will have their minds set on mixtapes, ill-timed Instagrams, and “Where’s DeMarre?”
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
