xman

Quote: Quote: Quote: There's a big gap between #2 and #3. I think I'd be open to moving #3/Marvin for #2/filler. Use Chill or Josh Smith (if he is really on the block) to get us a big. Use #11 on a PG. Crittenton / Johnson / Durant would be nasty in the future. If we are looking to unload Smith, then Smith/#3 for #2/Watson would be a strong offer. Maybe include Chill if we really want to make it hard for Seattle to resist (or if we can get a C from them). We would still have Critt (or Law)/JJ/Durant, with Shelden at the 4 and Marvin pulling the rest of the minutes at 3 or 4 spots (or go small wth shelden at the 5). Would be solid. You've got to be kidding me. What lack of respect for Brandan Wright and Josh Smith. Wow just wow at trading Smoove just to get the 2nd pick. I could see if it was for Greg Oden but for a guy at Josh's position? I have no respect for Wright - maybe in a few years, maybe not. Josh is a good player - he is not a superstar but will want to be paid like one - so I would rather have Durant. Maybe I am overestmatng Durant . . . . but superstars are hard to come by.

Quote: There's a big gap between #2 and #3. I think I'd be open to moving #3/Marvin for #2/filler. Use Chill or Josh Smith (if he is really on the block) to get us a big. Use #11 on a PG. Crittenton / Johnson / Durant would be nasty in the future. If we are looking to unload Smith, then Smith/#3 for #2/Watson would be a strong offer. Maybe include Chill if we really want to make it hard for Seattle to resist (or if we can get a C from them). We would still have Critt (or Law)/JJ/Durant, with Shelden at the 4 and Marvin pulling the rest of the minutes at 3 or 4 spots (or go small wth shelden at the 5). Would be solid.

One the ESPN Rumor area they had a quote that Seattle was open to dealing #2 but that it would take a lot to deal the pick - - normal posturing, but clearly it makes sense for them to make some knd of deal. There is no way that Lewis goes back if Durant is there - it just doesn't make sense. So, Seattle has 3 options; (i) Draft Durant and let Lewis walk for nothing, (ii) Draft Durant and do a sign and trade with Lewis, (iii) Resign Lewis and trade the #2 pick The most appealing option would be to sign and trade Lewis - they get a few players (maybe Frye/Crawford, etc.) and still get Durant. But, if they don't have a deal in place before the draft, the value will go down because other teams wll know they have no choice but to deal Lewis then. Plus, putting together a sign and trade is not the easiest thing to make happen - which could lead to the worst option, losing Lewis for nothing (essentially replacing Lewis with Durant). So, they should be, and apparently are, open to trading the pick. The question is what is fair value? Durant is a stud that will be a high scoring SF. #3 could be Yi/Wright/Horford/Conley which is still value - but not near the value of Durant. Seattle also would like to unload Watson's contract (or Ridnours instead) - they could use that money for part of Lewis' contract. Plus, if we absorbed salary, it would create a Trade Exception which Seattle could use or not. It seems to be the concensus that Chill could be dealt - but I don't know if he is enough added to the #3. Options? #2 and Watson for #3+ Chill for #3+#11+Chill for #3+ Chill+Shelden for #11+Marvin for #11+Marvin+Chill #2+Watson+ (one of their Cs) for #3+Marvin+? Even though I think Durant is going to be better than Lewis, it just seems that Seattle is better off with Lewis+#3+Marvin (or whatever else they can get in a deal) than Durant and not much else. For us, JJ and Durant would be lethal outside - along with JS/Williams at PF. True, C/PG would still be issues but there doesn't appear to be a great solution for that right now anyway - and depending upon the deal we might at least have adequate talent at those spots. That being said - if I was in Seattle and had decided to resign Lewis, there are other teams that might offer more (which would mean that we have to beat their offer). Maybe: #2+? for #9+Tyrus+? : Chicago has too many options to list them #2+? for #5+ Jefferson: Boston also has a lot of options #2+ for #24, #29, Atl#1 in 2008, MBanks/Barbosa or even Marion in some package #2+Watson for #5, Villanueva and #1 in 2008 #2+Wilcox/Collison/Watson/Wilkins/Sene for Garnett #2 for #12+Iguodola+? etc. So, it wouldn't be cheap - but, if Durant can be had, it should be attempted. lineup if #2+Watson+Petro for #3+Marvin+Chill PG - Watson/Claxton/Lue/(Law or Crittendon SG - JJ/Salim SF - Durant PF - Smith/Williams C - ZZ/Petro Strong at SG, SF and PF. Solid at PG. Weak at C. Still, a solid team.

Quote: This gives up one of our more valuable assets and doesn't solve our Center problem. Why would we do that? It's simple, folks. We'll get a PG at #11. So how do we move either the #3 pick for a Center, or move some of our forwards for a Center (and then take a forward with #3). exactly!

Our obvious needs are PG and C - but there are no worthy Cs available at #3 and many consider Conley a reach at #3. So, how do we get value for #3? Obviously we could deal for a veteran. Gasol 13.7 mil JOneal 19.7 mil Garnett 22.0 mil (and PG James 5.8 mil) Randolph 13.33 mil (and PG Jack 1.21 mil) LAldridge 4.32 mil (not really vet but could help) Rashard - FA Excpet for Aldridge, it would take a major salary package to get any of these guys. So, assuming we keep JJ, we would need to send some combination of cap space and talent: SALARY - TE 6.6 (approx cap space), Lue 3.5, Wright 3.25 (Lue and Wright are included only as cap filler) Talent - Marvin 4.5 ZZ 4.0 Chill 3.6 JSmith 2.2 SWilliams 3.1 Garnett/JO = TE, Lue, Wright, Marvin, ZZ, JSmith Or a similar combination. The question is can we get soemone to take Lue and Wright as filler wth two talented players instead of demanding 3 or more talented players. We could also swap draft picks. Someone suggest trading with Phoenix and getting our pick next year back (along with multiple picks this year). That could be something to pursue. But, I like the idea of dealing up for #2. Durant is going to be a force in this league. Seattle is in tough position. They have Ray Allen and not much else if Rashard walks. Rashard will surely walk if they draft Durant. So, Seattle is going to be pushing hard to sign and trade Lewis - or they will consider dealing the pick. We could offer: #3 and two of (#11, Marvin, Chill, SMith, SWill). It is a lot to give up but Durant is worth it. Other scenarios?

Portland wouldn't deal the pick. If they had a brainfreeze and considered it, they would demand a ransom for the pick (might go to 2 for Durant but not to 3). So, what would be the "ultimate" package we could offer (which is what I would demand if I was Portland): Best assets: 13.4 JJ 6.6 mil in cap space approx. 4.5 Marvin 2.2 JSmith 3.6 Childress 3.1 SWilliams 4.0 ZZ Other incentives: Taking bad contracts - oddly, Portland's two worst contracts are (or were) talented players - Miles 8.2 (is he healthy?) and Randolph 13.3 Randolph 13.3 Miles 8.2 FJones 3.3 (jones and Dickau for cap balance) Dickau 2.8 total 27.5 for (I would include #3 but the premise is we get Oden/Conley) #11 13.4 JJ 4.5 Marvin 2.2 JSmith 3.6 Childress 3.1 SWilliams 4.0 ZZ (could be taken off - 15% still works) 30.8 (Port could change it up by keeping Dickau, not ask for JJ and get a 6.7 TE by getting ATL's cap space) So, Portland would be ATL minus plus Roy, #11 and Ald. - - it would be close, but I think they still would prefer to keep Oden in that scenario. And, we would have Oden, Conley, Randolph and not much else. But, for argument's sake, if we could get to #2, then maybe they consider dealing down to #2 for Durant. Seattle might deal down from #2 to #3 - - if they resign Lewis and can get a lot for dealing down. So, what would it take to get to #2? JSMith, #3 and #11 should work and might make sense anyway - but premise is we keep #3, so we need to make it Marvin and #11 which might not be enough. IF we could get to #2, what would Prt take to deal down from #1 to #2? They could use a better pg - which we dont have. So, it would be cap space and overall talent - probably two of - Marvin, Josh, Smith, Williams, etc. Essentially, the best case scenario I can see for us to get Oden (by making 2 deals), we still give up #11, Marvin and 2 or 3 of our best players. We would be left with Oden/Conley/JJ and nothing else. And Port would have to want to be overloaded at the 2/3/4 with a weak 1 and an average 5 instead of having a stud C that would draw crowds, which is unlikely. And that is only after Seattle could get Lewis resigned. So, I think we can forget Oden.

With the court ruling, if Murphy were involved then a 3rd team would have to take him. If we deal with GS, then I bet it is something more like: Al for Dunleavy 7.4 expiring and a player - probably Pietrus 2.5 (but it could be Diogu 2.1 or O'Bryant rookie) and maybe a draft pick (lotto protected #1?)

How about O'neal: Oneal 18 mil for Al - ?mil One young player (Chill, Josh or Marvin) Trade exception for the difference - which lets them pick up another player or be under the cap next year.

As a Houstonian, I can say that there are a lot of fans that would rather keep Head than do the deal. But, after following the Rockets for a long time, it is clear that the team has a "stars win" policy (remember cassell and Horry for Barkley, OT for Clyde, etc.) The Rockets have a stud SF (TMAC), a stud C (Yao), a good PG (Alston) and two overpaid slightly below average PFs (Juwan and Stromile). Head is the only player on the roster that can play SG (Wesley is a free agent and won't be back and Barry retired). Sura and Mutumbo are old and injury prone - but are being counted on as contributors. Keep in mind that Head got a lot of minutes at SG, but is better at the point. So, the Rockets need 3 things: 1) A SG that can hit from outside (compliment Yao inside and TMac slashing) and defend (because JVG won't play him if he can't defend - so no Redick). 2) A better PF. Juwan and Stromile both have holes in their game (and their heart) and a PF that can bang (Thomas/Williams) or one that can drain it from outside (Bargnani) would look good between Yao and Tmac. [the team has talked about getting a 3 point shooting pf every since Yao came here - I personally prefer the banger but I don't call the shots] 3) Depth. I think managment has decided it can shore up depth with free agents and the MLE (if the Rockets draft a PF then the MLE goes to a SG). So, IMO, Roy is a target worth moving up for. And, the PFs would also be on the list. But to moveup, you have to give something. And the Rockets only player that has value that can be dealt is Head. The Rockets can also offer draft picks, but who really wants to give up a lot for Rockets draft picks (if TMac and Yao stay healthy, the picks will be low). So, while Head is a decent player, he is the main asset that the Rockets can offer. IMO, he could start at PG and be solid for the Hawks: good defense, good speed, and above average scoring (still not sure how he will pan out on 3s though). The other big rumor in Houston is Houston taking on a bad contract (Miles mentioned the most) from Portland to move up to 4 (not clear if Head would go in the deal or not).

Shelden won't get past the Rockets at #8, barring the unforeseen. top 6 on most boards: bargainboy, aldridge, tyrus, morrison, gay, roy if those 6 are gone, Houston would love to get shelden. supposedly, houston has a deal in place to trade #8 and Luther Head to move up to 6 if Roy is still on the board (and might apply for a couple of other players also). but, barring a trade or him going earlier, Shelden goes #8. The rest of the deal has merit, if those teams are willing to deal their stars (dealing stars haooens but is rare).

Can Chill guard most SGs? If so, then it might work. What about the other option - trading down from 5 to 8. What would be fair value? a lotto protected #1? #32? Swift? LHead? #8, Swift, #32 for #5?

Quote: Seems much more likely that BK would trade down to #8 with his #5, if indeed he is as PG-focused as many maintain he ought to be. Well, Houston would love to move up for Roy or one of the PFs. What would it take? Houston would love to do #32 and #8 for #5 - but it doesn't seem like enough. #8 and a lotto protected #1?

I thought it might not be enough for MW. Tmac is sticking at the 3 in houston. So, could Chill play the 2? or Smith/Harrington play the 4? If so, what is a fair deal?

Houston might also like to get Al. Would Swift have any value to the Hawks? Or, forget players, what about #8 and a lotto protected #1 (or #32 and a player) for #5?

Houston has pick 8 but it looks like the pick is too low to get what they need. So, they might prefer to trade the pick. What kind of deal could be worked out? Houston has several assets to deal: #8 #32 Luther Head: #24 pick has really developed into a nice swing guard that can backup PG and SG A PF - either Juwan Howard or Stromile Swift Possibly Alston The RealGM post was talking about dealing MWilliams for a pick to get MWilliams the PG. Maybe something like: MWilliams for #8, #32, LHead?