Wretch

These are the guys I like in this draft and also the players I think who are pretty safe bets to be solid contributors:

Sarr - I think his floor is a solid help defender, that can switch on the perimeter, and isn't a complete liability on offense (~15ppg).
Sheppard - The stats just scream rotational sniper that must be accounted for
Clingan - A lot of people are seeing him as a super safe pick and I agree.

I want to really like Knecht, but his speed concerns me.  Not on offense, but will it be a liability on defense that keeps him off the floor?  Dunno.  If not for that, he's probably my 2nd favorite guy out of all the lottery prospects. Honestly, if we had two picks in the top 10...I'd most likely burn one on him.  If we didn't have the #1 overall, he's the guy I'd be trying to move up or down for.

I think all of these guys will be serviceable from day one.  Sarr, I don't know how much of an immediate offensive impact he's going to have (or be allowed to have if we draft him), but I'm confident he'll pull his own weight on the defensive end off the bench.

8 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Great post.

Agree with you, and honestly, he's more or less the consensus #1 pick anyways, but I think the assumption here, that I mostly agree with, is playing at UK would have absolutely resulted in more minutes (keep seeing ppl talk about Sarrs per game stats) and higher usage because Sarr would have stood out even more amongst his competition, which likely would have translated to much bigger production and numbers compared to playing in a league of seasoned professionals as the outlier young guy

It's also easier to have a bigger impact in college as a big imo because most nights you will be playing against far inferior competition.  Edey, for example, simply has to catch entry passes and spam the same shot that is unguardable by 95% of the college teams' personnel, since there are like 100+ relevant NCAA programs... so your average starting center is 1. not going to have NBA height and 2. might not even be a center at all.  Tons of teams don't have guys taller than 6'9" and a lot don't have centers at all.  It's kind of just a different environment to try to draw the same conclusions.

And we literally saw this very thing when he played and dominated the G-League.  It's a lot of if's and but's for sure, but hearing it has given me confidence.

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I think it is a fallacious argument because it assumes the conclusion.  The idea that playing at UK would improve someone's draft prospects is the assumption that playing at UK would have allowed the player to show how good he is to scouts in a way that playing elsewhere didn't.  That applies if the player is good at UK.  It works the opposite way if the player is bad at UK.

UK's top 3 recruits last year were top 10 guys coming out of HS in Edwards, Wagner and Bradshaw and now none of them are considered first round worthy because they exposed the weaknesses in their games.  Dillingham and Sheppard were much lower rated (#21 and #79 respectively) and boosted themselves to top 10 picks with great years in Lexington.  Playing at UK puts you in the spotlight.  Whether that is good or bad depends on your performance so any argument that playing at UK would boost someone's draft stock is based on an assumption about how successful they would have been last year which I think assumes the very thing about that player that is being debated (how good a player they are).

Yeah, I'm not making arguments vs. Anthony Davis or that going to UK exclusively would have improved his draft stock.  There are takes like this that give me confidence in the pick, if saying it that way makes more sense.  Their reasoning being that if he were featured in a decent college program, that he would have had more exposure in the US, and against college players vs. Euro pros *edit- off the bench, they suspect better numbers.

14 hours ago, Sothron said:

Yes, it is the first one of us has mentioned it on here. We've talked about it privately. I think trading the pick would be a disaster PR move and it would be more about Ressler saving money by not having to pay the #1 pick salary scale. 

+1000...  I cannot put into words how much this resonates with me and how spot on you are.  It is time for the Hawks to act like a normal franchise and do the right thing.

On 5/17/2024 at 9:57 PM, KB21 said:

You should listen to Brad’s latest podcast with Tyler Jones.  It’s good.  Tyler made a great point.  If Sarr had played at Kentucky this past season instead of the NBL, he’s probably drawing comps to Anthony Davis and is the consensus pick.  He also said that if Buzelis and Holland had played in college this year instead of with Ignite, which was a disaster, they are probably the clear cut second and third picks with a completely different outlook on both.  

I've seen a few takes like this over the past month or so and it's the primary reason why I'm confident in the pick.

2 minutes ago, theheroatl said:

That is getting glossed over somewhat..

 

it’s safer to take a look at the top 3 and not expand out of that.. when you do you risk a Anthony Bennett

Yes indeed.  It's a pretty safe bet that your pick is among the consensus at the top.  You can make a nuanced pick for need and come out ahead sometimes - and we very nearly did with Trae and the 2019 draft.  You're more likely to pick your way out of a draft and end up in draft blunder articles for years to come fooling around though.

The only certainty about the NBA draft is that it's extremely top heavy.  If you're trying to win by rebuilding or selecting potential impact player, your best shot is casting a net at the consensus group of players at the very top.  That doesn't mean there aren't diamonds in the rough.  It's just that these are the players that have been scouted the most and are universally agreed upon as the best the class has to offer.  Nobody knows exactly what these guys will amount to, but check any previous draft and you'll generally find the impact players right where they need to be.

This is how I typically start with my picks.  I study what the experts see and take into account what everyone is saying (including people here on the Squawk).  The next thing is where I feel like GM's fail when making picks - nuance.  I look at the consensus top picks, their basic stats, their mechanics, their intangibles, and then I weigh that against need/BPA.  You can find most of these receipts on the Squawk, these are the picks I settled on and/or related thought processes at the time (spoiler tag added to cut down the size of this book):

This year, I started looking early at who we might be able to draft.  There were a few players around the late lottery that I took a cursory glance at, but I decided to check out Sarr to see why he was ranked so high even though I knew we'd have no shot at him.  I've put up enough words here, and over the last week, so I'm not going to get back into why I'd take him first. 

I'll just say that he's the pick for me without question.

Side note...  If we traded Trae, not at all saying that's what we should do, or that's what I want to do, and certainly not advocating trading Trae for a lottery pick in this draft.  However, ****IF**** we did trade him, and started rebuilding, and added another pick from this lottery then Reed Sheppard is the other player I'd be interested in.

Ok.  That's it for my receipt on this draft. I'll eventually take an obligatory look at Risacher for gits and shiggles, but I'm 100% sold on Sarr.

And he is trying to win now. This is what he was saying in one of his latest podcasts. He wants to be in Atlanta, but he also wants to win.

34 minutes ago, marco102 said:

That's not what me nor @Afro are arguing. His original post said he was upset with Trae for him giving the team an ultimatum  which hasn't been reported.  We are saying that's not a reason to be frustrated with Trae because no one has actually reported that. 

We are just trying to clarify what has been confirmed by reporting because some of the social media posts have made many assumptions about things that have not been said.   There are many valid reasons to not like Trae, but getting frustrated over some social media assumptions is just wanting to be mad when you can't find a report to support your assumptions and you are going off likes and vibes. 

Again, I don't care if you dislike Trae or not, but when you say you are frustrated at him for something that hasn't been reported to have happened,  then I'm going to try to bring some reason to your post. 

There are two social media items I'm bothered by.  One is the apparent apathy towards our pick.  The second is him showing support for this idea that management has failed to help him. That's what Kenyon Martin is saying and is not an assumption. Dropping a like on that is the same as anyone in here dropping reactions on our back and forth. 

Neither of these things are absolute fact. I'm not trying to rally support for an anti-Trae army. I don't care who agrees with me. The *IDEA* that Trae might be trying to play GM (like LeBron) bothers me so I'm taking a step back from the news and rumors (and trying to step away from the Squawk).

I'm not trying to invent things to be worried about, or dislike Trae over, or hating on him. What I'm seeing doesn't sit well with me. Particularly, the idea (RUMOR) that he's more interested in mortgaging the last couple of years on his contract to win now.

2 minutes ago, marco102 said:

That's fine. Be mad. 

You're having circular arguments with actual Trae haters and pulling me into it.  I'm not mad. I'm disappointed in our franchise player.  I have a right to do that, just as you have a right to ignore it.

If you can't respect that, then we just have nothing else to talk about.

1 minute ago, Afro said:

I never said you were a Trae hater. I said youre talking yourself into having problems with him because of the way you decide to look at things. 

Which is exactly what you just posted lol. Read Marcos post. You're looking at a bunch of stuff and interpreting it one way so you can have an issue with Trae about it. 

You can't say you have an issue with him liking what Martin said and then turn around and say you aren't looking for things to be mad about lol. 

This is what you said:

Man, with all due respect, some of yall talk yourself into having a problem with Trae way too much. 

The implication here is that I'm part of a larger group of posters who don't like Trae and find reasons to dislike him.  These kinds of people are typically referred to has "haters."  You are literally lumping me into that group.

It also isn't something I'm looking to be mad about.  It's like you're trying not to understand the message he's sending.  That whole clip is mouthed by someone who clearly has no idea what is going on in our front office.  Trae can't feign ignorance - he was a part of "getting the help" and "firing coaches."  

I'm not sure what you guys are confused about here.

1 minute ago, marco102 said:

There's is a difference between social media and actual reporting. You are getting yourself worked up over nothing.  No one has reported (which means going back, verifying and having confirmation) that Trae Young has stated anything other than he wants to understand what the teams plans are. 

If someone said those things in the video about me, I'd like it to. They are saying people don't like him because he buss their ass and all he does is work his butt off.  Would you not like that post if someone said those things about you? When the general media is dragging you everyday?

Again, you have not shown me anything where someone reported that Trae Young gave the team some ultimatum.  You aren't holding JJ, DJ,OO, Clint Capela, Hunter to the same standard as Trae.  None of them have said anything about the number one pick to my knowledge.  The only thing DJ said was this is going to be a crazy off season.  What do you want Trae to do exactly that these other players haven't done. 

It's like y'all find reasons to be mad or stressed out about things. 

Again... "ya'll"

People have got to stop bunching everyone together.  We don't all have the same opinion, even if we have similar ideas.  I'm not looking for anything to hold against Trae and I'm not reading into things.  I don't like when players try to play GM - and literally Trae marched into Schlenk's office demanding help after year 2.  At best, Trae is doing absolutely nothing to dispel the gossip.

Regarding the clip...when you "like" on something, you co-sign on it.  If I go out here and drop a heart on swimsuit picture of my wife's best friend, it sends a message.  Trae is sending a message.  Agree to disagree if you want.

29 minutes ago, Afro said:

Man, with all due respect, some of yall talk yourself into having a problem with Trae way too much. 

Dude, I have been Trae's white knight since he put on a Hawks uniform. The notion that I'm a part of "ya'll" is preposterous.  It's crazy to me how binary we are with our discussions.  You love Trae or you're a hater...that's it.

No, that's not it. I've got concerns about his attitude towards the upcoming season and our immediate future.

22 minutes ago, marco102 said:

Where/when did Trae say this? The only thing he said is he wants to know their plans from the reports I've read. If they plan on moving all the veterans on the team for draft picks and want to keep Trae for ticket sales.  Is it not fair for him to say he wants out? 

That team would have been fine if Giannis and Lillard hadn't gotten injured though. They'd be playing the Knicks right now and probably on their way to the ECF.

The message of this clip is "quit changing coaches", get him some help, and he's doing all he can."  This is a casual observer's opinion of the Hawks - what someone who DOESN'T watch us or know what's going on would say.  Trae is co-signing on everything said in this clip by reacting to it.  He's had a significant voice in shaping this roster, so it's a little duplicitous for him to try to line up with this.

I don't have the energy to get into Trae, cryptic messages, social media and all that.  If you don't understand how these things are used to send signals, then we're on opposite sides of the planet with no way to communicate.  For me, it's pretty clear what's going on behind the scenes and I don't like that kind of thing.

I have been a very vocal Trae supporter.  I think he's a fantastic player, I think he's a superstar, I believe he should be the future of our franchise.  For all the love I've given Trae, he is not without flaws.  The biggest being questions over his leadership/maturity from day one.  His intentional silence and apathy after one of the biggest things to happen to the franchise is not helping that image.

I'm not a Trae hater and I have no idea what conversations are really taking place.  But I'm not blind and I don't like what little I'm seeing right now.

1 minute ago, JeffS17 said:

Same.  Send him to an owner that just wants to sell tickets and get back quality players.  Or send him somewhere like New Orleans (will not stop repeating this one as I think it makes the most sense) where we could poach Herb Jones and use Ingram as salary filler.

I'll tell you what is making my stomach turn...  I'm legitimately warming up to the "dark side" and here's why.  You complain and demand for help, better coaching, and lobby for certain guys either to come here or get paid here.  The front office does all of that...then he turns around and says, "I'm doing all I can.  Do your job and you gotta get me some help or I'm out." 

That's some LeBron/diva type stuff and I don't want to think that about Trae.  I almost want to say that he's playing up the narrative with his social media with his recent silence, cryptic themes, and likes. Just be a professional and you've been WELL compensated and appeased. Play ball and support the franchise and the fans that have been in your corner.  

Stay out of management's ear and let them do what they have to do.  Dip at the end if you ain't where you want to be.  Either that or just man up and sh!t on the fans like all these other stars do when the ring means more than the game.  I got no stomach for this cryptic stuff and I'm not a fan of players who play those kinds of games.

Yeah......I'm probably gonna check out.  I don't believe all the rumors, but something about all this doesn't sit right with me.  I've spent way too much time on the Squawk these last couple of days anyway.

@Sothron, if I'm not lurking here... I'll hit you up on FB for updates you're allowed to share.

One thing to really keep in mind when you're looking at Sarr...

He came off the bench in the Aussie pro league.  Competition is pretty good over there and they favor the vets/experienced guys.  His numbers are quite respectable for the time he was given and the role he played.  Had he been featured in a notable college program, a lot of people are speculating that he would have emerged as a clear cut favorite in this class.

He did go up against his peers/age group vs the GLeague Ignite and he absolutely dominated if you haven't seen it:

I would be LIVID if we passed on him.

Just now, macdaddy said:

I'm not in denial.  I just think it's a monumental mistake that will take years for this franchise to recover from.  From both a basketball and fan interest perspective.   You can't keep sending out talent and expect fans to be interested.  

Lots of folks spout the line 'this ain't 2k' well my fear is that Landry thinks it is.   That he wants to build what he thinks is the right way which basically means take it down to the studs and start over.  I'm tired of that crap.  If Trae goes then we're basically back to being a typical middle of the road team with no stars, no all stars, that might 'play the right way' as we're bounced by the first round every year until we ultimately just get rid of everyone good and collect draft picks again.  

My worst fear.  I wouldn't sit through that process again and it would be DISASTEROUS for a franchise that has been an afterthought for decades for this very reason.  I can't do it again.  I need relevancy and I would rather endure total failure than be a perennial punching bag for contenders.

Just now, KB21 said:

So basically, your bias against Trae is showing.  

Ya'll and this hard-coded, left/right, binary Squawk talk.  Read the post above yours if this is directed at me.