Wretch

46 minutes ago, Sothron said:

Murray and Klutch are pushing to get to the Lakers. Teams have consistently low balled us. Personally I would pull him off the market if the best offer is 2029 Lakers pick, DLo flipped to a third team and that's pretty much it. Terrible return for Murray.

As I suspected and feared.  I don't know if I blame anyone outside of the ownership group that has made a mess of things, but I certainly have no appreciation for sports agencies basically tampering.  Maybe I'm just jaded because of the LeBron James effect...

21 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

The writing is on the wall...and answers questions regarding the offers we're hearing about.  I believe this FO will do the best it can, but clearly there are more factors at work here than just having a losing record and trying to improve the team.

8 hours ago, Bonzaii58 said:

If we’re so desperate for first round picks, can we just package up Bey, Hunter and AJ? Between the three I feel like we can get 2 first round picks.

i just don’t understand why the FO feels Murray is the only way we get to that outcome. 

The way it reads in the rumor mill, the only players worth 1sts on our team are Trae, DJM, and JJ...and just barely.  The insiders have said that teams are looking at us like a farm team and expecting discounts on our assets.  My immediate thought is it's true and they're trying to lower the value and the lowball "bidding war."  In the case of Murray, there's probably a multitude of factors - Klutch being the biggest.

4 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

This front office hasn't really done much yet.  I'm not going to have low confidence based on rumors.  My feeling is we're in a bad situation, but it's not because of this front office group.  It's a situation that has been brewing.  Let's look at what Landry (or this new collective) has actually done since "taking over" if we can call it that.  My grades below:

• Bey for a bunch of seconds: felt like a great move last year, feels bad right now, but overall B+ from me
• Brought in Garrison Matthews and Bruno for Kaminsky and Holiday, B-
• Nate gone, Snyder hired, A from me
• Extended Bogi on $17M/year, B-
• Drafted Bufkin, Lundy, and got Mo/Miles, jury still out here
• Offloaded Collins, B-, this was cleanup of Schlenks mistakes
• Brought in Wes Matthews on a 1 year, C+
• Extended OO on ~$16M/year, B

None of these moves are really needle movers or worthy of much judgement.  People are free to judge him for moves he didn't make, but I hesitate to do that myself -- at least not until he has a body of work to draw from.  I have no idea what player availability looks, what guys want to come play in ATL, etc.  Moving DJ will be the first major move made by this new regime and that's when I'll start to form an opinion on them.  Trading for DJ in the first place was on Schlenk's watch.  I'm not going to try to untangle the politics of the '22 summer and pass judgement one way or the other.

To be clear, the rumors don't bother me and I'm not dumping on Landry/Kyle.  They are doing their job and I'm honestly waiting to see how this plays out.  They are responsible for their performance in the FO, but not for the entirety of the Trae Young era of the Hawks.  What's bothering me is reading between the lines. 

It's unsettling to say the least and I'm not talking about trade rumors here.  I'm talking about reviewing public comments, firings, trades, etc. with the full benefit of hindsight and insider commentary.  There's so much to draw correlations with and solid consistency between the things that @Sothron, @NBASupes, and now @Mikey have said.  It all lines up to some very clear writing on the wall and it makes my chest ache.

Just now, kg01 said:

This is sad, wr.  I'm thinking all this, just not sayin it yet.  I thought about starting a sister site called 'f*ckthahawksquawk' but I didn't want the folks here to get the wrong idea. 

But yeah, it's lookin bleak.  And I'm not excited by the 'hey les looklookit tankathon ta see what our pick c'be today'.  Nah, that shat aint it, chief.

So what we gon root for now, @Spud2nique?  We gotta pick a pickle all team?  Slippery stairs on BSPN-Ocho? 

Y'know....  There's a time and place for resetting.  Just like there's a time to push a young team to start winning.  In both cases, it's like we moved too soon.  I'll never abandon the Squawk though.  The reality is, this place will be far more interesting than anything they put on the court.  I'll just go 99% lurker mode.

Grimes and filler.

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

The problem is... By What Standard?

How much does a star going into his prime cost?

At that point, BK decided it was  a player that we couldn't find a role for and 2 FRPs with protections. 

At the time, we traded for Joe, he was coming off of a pretty good season...

17/5/3 on 46% from the field and 47% from three.  You see the numbers, I rounded down. 

His three point percentage was 47.8% on 4.5 attempts... and this wasn't even the modern NBA. 

The question is WHAT SHOULD THAT COST??  

You wanted him for a straight up swap for Diaw?  Or maybe Diaw and a 1st round pick that was protected?

If you were the GM for Phoenix would you have been happy to send your 23 year old 47.8% shooting from three player who was known as a very good defensive player...  Away for Diaw and 1 protected FRP??

Just a little something...

This is the 3Pt percentage leaderboard for the year we took him.  Only Damon Jones and Chauncey Billups have more attempts than JJ.. and JJ scored more points than both of them.   That was championship Chauncey Billups "Mr. Big Shot". 

So again.. What do you charge for that?  How much should that cost?   Boris Diaw and 2 protected FRP is an overpay??   BS.

Here's the PROBLEM

This problem is indicative of most Atlanta Hawks fans.  For us... First Round Picks are magical.  We believe that First round picks are franchise changing.  We value first round picks more than we value actual talented players.   We have this unrealistic view of first round picks in the face of a mountain of evidence to the contrary.

These are the facts...

1. The Hawks have never prospered from a FRP (with the exception of Al Horford and Jason Terry). 
2. Our best players have come about because of Trade... even trade of FRPs. 
3. Our FRPs normally end up as average to above average players.  Like Terry, Teague, Childress, Smoove, Marvin, JC, etc.

So when we have this skewed view of FRPs, it's the only possibility that we "Overpaid" whenever we have used them in trade... regardless of what we got.   We could have got Shaq in his prime for the same deal and people would still be saying.. We overpaid.

 

I would really like to stop talking past each other.

Diesel, I agree with you. Pause and digest that. This is another example of the polarized/binary conversations we have in here. I don't want first round picks right now. I don't want to rebuild. I would rather mortgage the future for immediate talent. I think it was wise to give up first round picks for DJ. I think it was wise to give up unknown, protected, first round picks for Joe Johnson. We're not in disagreement there. Where we disagree is what a proper bid is and a little bit of revisionist history.

Prior to becoming a free agent, Joe Johnson could not secure a contract with Phoenix. He was frustrated with his contract situation, he was frustrated with the negotiations, and he was frustrated with being the fourth option. We put in a max contract offer for him and he asked his ownership not to match it.

Robert Sarver was known for running a tight payroll. No one other than Cleveland had the cap space to make an offer for Joe Johnson and they pivoted to Jerry Stackhouse. No one else even showed any real interest. Joe was a very good player, but not proven as a star. My opinion, and that of sources at the time, is that we could have just sat on the max contract offer and Phoenix would not have matched it. Certainly Boris and a first round pick would have gotten it done.  My assertion is that we bid against ourselves. Regardless of what we paid, It was more than we had to. 

We will have to agreed to disagree on that...but this is something that infamously fractured our front office much like it is doing you and I right now. 

In terms of DJM, all I'm saying is those pics should have been structured the way JJ's trade was. As it were, my opinion is that three unprotected firsts in succession is too rich for my taste. We will have to agree to disagree on that as well. 

1 hour ago, Dean Walker said:

I Hope this isn’t true!

 

I lol'd. 

52 minutes ago, AHF said:

This is just where we disagree:

I would say the way we overpay is if we gave up more than we needed to do to get the trade done.

 

If you buy a stock that you believe will be worth $20 for $15 is that an overpay if it ends up being worth $20?

You would say it is not by your standard because $20 > $15.

If the market price for the stock at the time of the purchase is $12 then I would say it was an overpay because $15 > $12.

 

We are fundamentally talking about getting a positive return versus maximizing return.  I think both are valid ways of measuring but we are talking past one another if we are using different criteria.  I agree that under your standard the JJ trade was not an overpay.  The debate around whether JJ was overpaid was using my criteria not yours. 

For me, the DM trade was an overpay because the picks weren't protected which led us to pay more than was market.

This is exactly my point. We are talking past each other in here. JJ is clearly worth the settled cost. No one would argue that. We simply put in a higher bid than necessary to secure him. Both statements are accurate. 

DJ's cost is unknown.  He is worth an infinite number of Priest Lauderdales and Sheldon Williams'.  He's not worth a single Luka Doncic...let alone 3. 

I love DJ and I think he's worth gambling on, but I'd fold on three unprotected picks.  That is too rich for my tastes. 

Ya'll are about to learn something about me...

So...

There's a lot of ways to interpret this depending upon your spiritual values.  Regardless, dreams are always for YOU.  It could be something that you have to do personally or it could be a message that you have to deliver to someone for them to do something.  The biggest consideration though, is that you had the dream.

Some keys to interpret it are...

How did you feel.  Your reaction to the dream is what the orchestrator of the dream is looking for. 

Negative experiences...
Creepy/scary dreams are meant to intimidate you
Authoritative/serious/thought provoking dreams are meant to guide you or "straighten" you up

Positive experiences...
Lustful/naughty/scandalous dreams are meant to corrupt you or mislead you.
Wholesome/beautiful/nice dreams are meant to encourage you, lift you up, or calm you down

Black is the unknown or insignificant.  Either take no consideration for this aspect or treat it as an unknown negative factor if the color is linked to causation - IE: a player in black shoved Bogi.

It's the Hawks because that's where your interest is at the moment.  It's a metaphor that catches your attention - especially because you never dream about them.  It's something you'd remember after the dream.

It's Bogi because he's the most impactful that is least discussed.  Easily overlooked.  As a personal message, this is telling you to look at something you think you have under control and consider what would happen if you lost it.  Confirmed by the fact that everybody notices what's going on except for the players - the Hawks players.

The Hawks are ignoring their downed player and the opposition doesn't matter because they are irrelevant/unknown (black) if they are uninvolved in the injury.  They also don't matter because it's the Hawks you care about.

Clearly, the right thing to do is take a foul and help Bogi.  It's also bigger than the game (life), but the Hawks are too focused on the game (goal/prize/reward) and are ignoring the obvious.

It's worth noting that the dream could have happened without commentary, but Bob and Nique weighed in.  They represent the observers along with you.  This is where you have to assess their tone, your spiritual values, and how you feel about their reaction.

On a final note, if you think this was a message to you specifically my immediate guess is Bogi may represent your spiritual health (intangible) where we are easily overwhelmed/distracted by our physical health/environment. The fact that you are sick kinda leads it there IMO.

Meditate on it dude and trust your right brain (intuition) here. 

I also don't believe in coincidences.  The second that I hit submit, the Squawk went down.  The message was saved, even though I copied it just to be sure (because the post was taking too long).

2 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

There is no correlation with a weak draft and having gems in the rough -- this is a pretty wild assumption... there are gems in every draft late in the first and sometimes in the second round, but there is no reason to believe we will find one.  We might as well pretend like we can just wait for a top 5 player to sign here in FA at those odds.

I'm inclined to agree.  The NBA draft was my jam from the early 90's up until like 2012ish as like watching how talent was drafted and developed.  It's all hit or miss, but the game changers are found almost exclusively in the lottery.  Outside of that, in any draft it's a matter of pure due diligence, fit, and player development/opportunity...and like a ~2% chance of finding an all-star quality talent. This is why when you have talent, you carefully examine what you need to maximize its impact and prioritize building around it.

This is a great time to drop a note for the Squawk... 

For future reference ya'll, this is why I maintain that everything is negotiable.  The next time I say that I would trade <player x>, please don't look at me sideways.  Potential has an expiration date and it absolutely KILLS us coddling our sacred cows too long.

17 hours ago, Diesel said:

This was a very foolish take.

Joe Johnson made 7 allstar teams as a Hawk.  This helps the reader to understand the skewed valuation mentioned in this post.   A player that made 7 allstar teams and who will be a Hall of Famer and did most of his work with this franchise was an "overpay" because it costed Boris Diaw and 2 1st round picks.   Boris Diaw + Robin Lopez + Taylor Griffin  > Joe Johnson?

If this is what is believed to be an overpay....  Don't speak on DJ.

 

You know what's crazy about this...?  The fact that we protected our picks. Had we not, it's pretty eye opening evaluating what the deal could have been.

We gave them the Lakers pick in the 2006 NBA draft - that became Rajon Rondo.  We took Shelden Williams, but there's a lot of talent from 1-14 they could have selected from LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, Rudy Gay, JJ Riddick, or Thabo Sefalosha. 
Diaw + Rondo + the lesser of the talent pool available is an even swap. The higher side of that talent pool makes this a better deal for Phoenix.

But say we only protected the pick in 2006 though. Now that package is Diaw + Rajon Rondo + Kevin Durant, Al Horford, or Mike Conley (asset since Pho already has a PG).  Joe Johnson is not worth that.

There are a couple other considerations here.  First, all of the lottery picks have "potential" value as an asset.  So while in hindsight we can see the total valuation, if you look at these as assets in the context of the timeframe...there's no telling how they could have been used. 

More importantly though, Sarver kept a tight payroll.  Although JJ was a breakout player, he was still a 4th option in Phoenix.  There was a strong belief that Phoenix would not match a max contract offer.  There was no negotiation from our end though because Billy Knight was enamored with Joe Johnson.  JJ was to be the point guard in BK's all 6'8" vision and why we passed on all of the fantastic PG options when everyone in the world knew that we needed one. He would have paid any price and he did.

Also in our favor was the fact that Joe Johnson asked out.  There was no competition for him.  Clevlend was the only other real suitor.  They got cold feet and went after Jerry Brickhouse.  Boris Diaw + 1 declining protected pick is a fair deal (and unnecessary IMO) and less risky deal than we gave up.  We could have been singing a different tune had there been no protection and Durant or Horford landed in Phoenix.

Yes Joe Johnson was an amazing signing for us.  Yes we overpaid for it.  The two points are not mutually exclusive and there is never a reason not to negotiate a deal as best you can.  In both cases, we failed.

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

 I am more crossing my fingers and hoping these guys land the plane.

If that just don't say it all for me...

16 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

As I just posted in the historical Trae thread, the guy that may have been ideal to pair with Trae, was Kristaps Porzingis.  A 7 - 2 big that can rim run and also shoot out to 3 point range.  Zinger is also a much better defender than Clint or OO, holding people to 43% FG when he guards or contests their shots.

I was suggesting the same for a long time.  His injury history had me slightly concerned, but not enough to pass him up.  I was really upset when we missed on that.

16 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

And this is what I can't stand about our front office approach.

We refuse to add pieces and let go of "precious project players", in order to put better players around Trae.  Instead, the option is to blow it up AGAIN, and wait 5 years for us to get better.

 

Meanwhile, the media and talking heads are going to do all they can to get Trae out of ATL.

When in her entire career has Rachel Nichols did some sort of feature piece about what Trae Young should do?  And where in the hell did Boogie Cousins come from all of a sudden?  He has hot takes on Trae's career?

These guys F'd up big time, thinking that Clint and 12 were worth keeping as vital role players, instead of flipping.

Like I told people in the summer, 2026 is fast approaching.  You sell off any and everything not named Jalen Johnson, in order to construct a better fitting team that matches their skill sets.  And don't worry about "winning" a damn trade.  Just get better fitting pieces in here ASAP.

Trading Murray for draft picks is going to turn out to be a disaster, because those draft picks aren't going to turn into lottery players.  They're going to turn into more mediocre talent.  So if you don't IMMEDIATELY have a plan to flip those draft picks to bring in more significant players, we're dead in the water.

 

Here is some real shit I'm about to say.  And I'm sorry if this comes off too harsh.

With everything going on in the world right now, and with some of us on this very board who are 50, 60, 70, 80, almost 90 years old on this forum . . . some of us may not have another 5 - 10 years on this Earth to wait for the Hawks to finally get it right.

 

To see this franchise possibly give up building around arguably the 3rd best player in it's history ( behind Petit and Nique ), is beyond maddening for me.

Let go of some of these one-dimensional and/or passive ass role players, and get some real versatile talent in here . . . even if it's young talent that haven't been given a shot to show what they can do.

And Quin, you have 12 months to get this right, once we do change the mix.  The franchise would be idiotic to get rid of the All-Star talent, and keep the coach who has a worse record than Nate as coach of the Hawks.

All of this.

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

 

He small doe...

2 minutes ago, Diesel said:

This is not San Antonio's fault.. and honestly it's not the deal's fault either.   IT'S OUR FAULT.

This is where we like to put on the Blinders.  When we made the move to get DJ... Every move after that should have been a move to make sure that we have the right pieces to compete.   

We did the opposite.  OUR FAULT.

We traded off players for Cap Space.  OUR FAULT.

We traded away size for nothing.  OUR FAULT.

We pick the wrong coaches.  OUR FAULT.

Stop blaming the deal. 

 

 

These are fair points, but it honestly feels like we're talking past each other here.  The "overpay" (for lack of a better word) and mismanagement you're drawing attention to have areas of overlap. 

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Sometimes we forget the human side of trades.

 

 

Too often, I think we forget the human side of the whole game. These aren't robots that have 100% predictable binary responses. They're not parts that you can just swap in and out. There is very much a mental aspect of this game that IMO affects things moreso than anything else. 

8 hours ago, ABH said:

Not the Trae of the past

Trae is Trae. Regardless of whether people think he's 1A or 1B (and he is one of those), Trae is no different than any other star player in that he needs the right complimentary star and the right environment. Nobody does it alone. 

So, it's not a bad trade as much as it looks poorly negotiated.  IE - The car is great, we just paid the sticker price for it.

Same as the Joe Johnson trade IMO. 

2 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

You're talking about this guy?  Who bumped a ref at the end of Game 4 vs Boston after he and the Hawks got no calls, and we went down 3 - 1?  He gets himself suspended and leaves the Hawks to be slaughtered in Game 5?

That guy?

 

 

But there was no slaughter.  In fact, the entire team played inspired basketball, led by the guy you want replaced.

And when the game was to be decided on one play, he did this IN Boston . . .

 

 

I like DJ.  I like his professional demeanor.  And I think the biggest issue with he and Trae playing together, is the frontcourt they're playing with.  I've pointed out that the problems they're facing, are the same ones that Lillard and CJ McCollum faced.

But if given a choice . . . there really is no choice. 

 

It's a reason why #11 is the box office in Atlanta.

Even in the series where he got dominated by Miami, and when he was struggling mightily in this game, he pulls this off.

 

 

People are always think that there's "this one weird trick" to building a contender.  It's the player or the coach or the defense or the offense...it's always one thing and everybody has their one thing they reach for.  Truth is, the game is very nuanced and there's a chemistry that makes it work.  It's the right combination of elite talent surrounded by supporting talent with the right philosophy on both ends of the court.  We have some really good parts in that.  They just don't fit together the right way.

The front office has only compounded this issue.  Leaving the tank early, and switching GM's are the two that don't sit well with me.  The DJM trade was fine, but I was never comfortable with the overpay on those picks.  The 2025 pick is fair with the pick swap mostly fair.  There should have been lottery protections on that 2027 pick and I'm sure I said as much during the trade.  That's a straight up yikes for me and the way it's set up, keeps us from exploring our rebuilding options should we have to.

I still think with some smart moves and the interest in the guys we have that this is salvageable one way or another.  Just no more reactionary bullsh!t.