Wretch

The only thing that is right about this team is Trae Young.

Bring all the hate.

Bring all the trash.

Bring all the "bad" stats.

All of it.

I don't care.

Mostly because I'm drunk and bucket nekkid in Jamaica RN...but also because, Trae is a rare breed and he is literally the hardest piece to find among the ridiculous amount of things you look for when building a contender.  Book mark this, because I'm going to be positively...

O
B
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...when someone figures out what to do with him and that team breaks the NBA.  

I said what I said.

Don't @ me.

*Sober edit - I'm withholding judgement on Quin until we assemble the right team. I am leaning towards him also being a good thing. 

15 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

 

Incoming:

• Over usage of the following words/phrases: culture, competitive, hard work, works hard, good player
• WLOC
• "With the 17th pick in the <20XX> NBA draft, the Atlanta Hawks select..."
• Smart contracts
• 1 Nationally Televised game
• Every single Squawk thread:
  • Tank/No
  • We need a star/We had one
  • We made it to the ECF's with Trae/We did it in 2015 without him
  • Insider thread: "Don't expect the Hawks to do anything significant"
  • Defanse!^TM, Quality Veterans^TM, Serviceable Big Man^TM
• ^.ESPN's obligatory Annual Hawks story: Hawks backup PF involved in DUI stop
• "We welcome you back to <NOT ATLANTA> where the Hawks look to stave off First/Second round elimination, down 3-1.."

2 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

When forces come against Trae, the counter argument has to come.   I do always appreciate @benhillboy with his statistical breakdown on why Trae isn't as great as people like me say he is.

But watch this.

 

Great numbers.  But you need to explore WHY Bogi and Bey's offensive rating and on/off are so high.

It's because of Trae.

( Damn . . . ya'll gonna make me late for work . . lol )

 

Hawks team 5-man group

Our Top 8 lineups in minutes feature Trae.  The one that is a huge negative, is the Trae - Murray - Bey - JJ - Capela lineup, which is the one we've been recently running without 12 in the lineup.  That team has been getting smoked recently on defense, and can't generate enough offense. 

The lineup with Trae - Murray - Hunter - JJ - Capela has also been a negative linup, but not as much.

The other 6 lineups have been positive groupings.  So let's break down Bey and Bogi's lineups specifically

 

Bey 5-man

 

6 of Bey's top 7 lineups in minutes are a positive grouping.  In all but one of those positive lineups, Trae is on the court with him as the PG.

So let's go to the 4-man lineup combinations to see which Trio works together with him.

Sorting his lineups from positive to negative, you see who is on the court with him.

 

 

Both Murray and Trae have excelled with this particular grouping  ( Bey - Bogi - Okongwu ).  You are correct that the spacing and gravity that Bey and Bogi has on the court, helps the team offensively.  But someone has to get them the ball.  And who gets them the ball?

It's #11

 

You see, it's Trae that is the maestro that stirs the drink.

Trae is directly responsible for 50% of the 3 point makes that Bogi gets.  Bogi shoots a whopping 46% from 3, off of Trae's passes.

Trae is directly responsible for 25% of the 3 point makes that Bey gets.  That number would be much higher if Bey didn't miss so many corner 3 passes he receive from Trae.  Bey only shoots 33% off of Trae's passes for 3 point attempts.

Bogi's lineups tell the same story

 

When paired with Bey, both PGs have shooters that they can throw the ball to, and they normally excel also with Okongwu in the middle.

And his 3-man lineups ( which are all positive per 100 possessions ), show that Trae is the PG on the floor with him that he has the most success with

 

The culprit here is actually not Trae that's potentially holding us back as a team.  It's Capela and 12.

Look up their on/off numbers and tell me what you see.  Nevermind.  I'll do it for you.

And I LOVE the fact that my dude Bruno is at the top of this list.  Kind of says something about the potential skill set and energy he could bring to a lineup, if he played with other high level dudes.  ( I know it's a small sample size, but still ).

 

 

Murray, specifically gets hammered when playing with those two, due to Clint's inability to score unless he grabs offensive rebounds or is set up at point blank range.  I won't talk about 12 because people get upset sometimes when you show negative numbers about him.

 

I gotta go to work, but you have enough to chew on here.  I might come back to this later, to specifically hammer on Steph Curry.  Don't give that dude a pass.  There's a reason why he's at the bottom of this list.

This is why you are my favorite poster my man (even when I disagree with you lol!).  Your points are always balanced between statistical and observational analysis.  I'm a security engineer and advanced statistical analysis is literally what I do all.....day....long....every...day.  There is so much nuance to basketball though that I just avoid getting sucked into the polarizing arguments.  I will literally sit on this board F5-ing all day on a merry-go-round.  The downside of that is I have to watch through gritted teeth while people use stats to make obviously tilted arguments - so I appreciate seeing seeing you (and @AHF too) drop these kinds of logic bombs.

On 8/17/2021 at 9:02 PM, Wretch said:

I'm glad this post is here...  One, so I can get my opinion recorded for future reference and two, because it validates how I felt watching him in Summer League.  And let me just say...holy sheeet.

Yes, it's summer league. 

Yes, he's young. 

Yes, we have a small sample size. 

I hear you guys and I respect the calls to temper our expectations...but the ol' eyeball test on JJ was something else. 

For a 19 year old, 6'9" 220lb wing/forward...with only 2tsp's of college ball on his resume...I didn't see a whole lot of flaws.  What I did see was a damn swiss army knife.  That kid can handle the ball.  He can pass the ball.  He can shoot the ball.  He can post up.  He can face up.  He's got dribble penetration.  He's athletic.  He's a rim runner.  He has tremendous energy and hustle.  He moves down the floor with a purpose and looks like he can effectively defend all 5 positions. 

It's hard trying to keep my enthusiasm in check because he just did everything well, every time he stepped on the court.  He consistently looked like the most talented player out there.  Not necessarily the best shooter or passer or even best scorer...but he looked like the guy with the most facets to his game and everything he did looked smooth and effortless and FAST.

Which is another thing: there was zero hesitation about any of it.  Just...ball got in his hands, he instantly went to work.  Ball went up...he was on the glass.  Ball came down, he was the first one down the court...or if he grabbed the rebound, he was pushing the break.  Or if he grabbed the rebound and there was a guard there, he'd take half a second to assess the defense and then the ball would be in the facilitator's hands.

I'm not going to call him the 2nd or 3rd most talented Hawk or the guy with the most potential, but if this skill translates and he improves...he's coming for somebody's minutes.  Which, honestly...  He's looking like a 3/4.  His frame looks like he'll put on some muscle and he's a mirror of JC's pre-draft measurements.  6'9" height...  6'11" wingspan...  220-ish lbs. (though I've seen him listed 220 in some places and 206 in others).

Hold on.  Say what now @Wretch...?

Oh. Yeah, that's what I thought Wretch said. 

Wait... Did I just refer to myself in 3rd person? 

Well yeah but before that you tagged yourself.

Dude, who are you talking to?

Who are YOU talking to?

(Awkward silence)

I dunno honestly. I was just coming to this thread to find something I thought I said and toot my own damn horn...but it's just gotten weird now.

Jalen Johnson is dope y'all.

11 hours ago, Sothron said:

They aren't going to hand anyone away. If the FO had its way they would flip Hunter/AJ for Siakam and keep DJM both now and long term. Capela will still be moved but that's more due to avoiding the LT than the team wanting him off the roster.

I know Soth.  I'm not worried about them making bad moves as much as I'm lamenting the fact that I actually like THIS team and it sucks that it's not working.  I know that we have to do something, but I have a strange attachment to this squad top to bottom.  I honestly just like this group of guys and every game I tune in hoping it will be the spark that turns things around.

For those who would chime in, I'm aware that I am living in the past.  I know the ECF fairytale is over - been over and time to let it go. Still stings...especially with the high hopes I had for DJ.  I wasn't as high on his game as most were, but I loved his attitude. I thought for sure we were there man. 

Also...if we trade Jalen Johnson for a Siakam rental, I'm out for the season and for the foreseeable future if it turns into just a rental.

1 hour ago, Sothron said:

Djm has scrubbed all Hawks mentions from all his social media today 

These dudes know that we hang on every word they say and every little thing they do on social media.  Especially during "" season.  At the very least, it's an odd choice and it sucks if it has come down to sending signals and trade requests.  If there's a problem with fit or performance, it has more to do with how the team as a whole is constructed.  If we're moving on from DJ, I would rather it be less messy/personal and good for all parties involved.  I got nothing but love for dude.

The "off the ball" conversation is a tired one.  Especially because every conversation on the Squawk seems to always settle into two very polarized, "either/or" camps.  Nobody believes Trae is Steph.  We stopped comparing their styles years ago.  They are two very good and extremely different ball players.  The bottom line is every team with more than one star player has to figure out how use them together and get the most out of them while they don't have the ball in their hands.

Whether you think that means cutting around 50 screens or getting a dominant big man to play inside/out...to get the most out of Trae, there has to be someone for the defense to be concerned about away from the ball when he has it or you have to get him away from the ball with a secondary facilitator/scoring threat.  Otherwise, we're going to keep seeing the team fade during key possessions and especially in the clutch.

Having said it multiple times in interviews, DJ himself thought he would be that difference maker coming here.  I don't blame him that it's not working out, but it doesn't change what the team needs offensively if we're going to build it around Trae.

Just now, Sothron said:

The last serious talks we had with the Pelicans about Zion was turned into them trying to send us Ingram instead. Ingram has already said he wants out of NO.

Oh man.........what!? Hold on.  I gotta turn the Zion-Trae music down a little so I can think clear lol
I mean, ideally you pair Trae with an impact big man, but...there's absolutely nobody higher on my wishlist than Brandon Ingram.  

4 hours ago, warcore said:

I know the oussiders are gonna give me hell for this....

but I think I'm coming around to the mindset of @Wretch on the Zion matter (or is it mass?). I get the risks about his health and how he's been drama since he came into the league..... but what are we doing now? We're losing and it's not even fun to watch - I'd rather at least be entertained while losing. We have a front court issue and we have a rebounding issue. He helps with both of those. 

The biggest reasons I'd welcome him here:
1. He WANTED to be here. I'd imagine he get his act together to remain somewhere he wants to be -- in regards both to his weight and the drama. I acknowledge the proximity to Magic City may make this difficult. 
2. Dre could be shipped out as part of the package. 
3. Dre could be shipped out as part of the package. 

The most important thing to building a contender for me is timing. 

Trying to get Zion at draft time would have been nigh impossible.
Trying to get Zion now doesn't sound impossible and might actually be worthwhile for all parties.
Trying to get Zion {if he beats the stigma} becomes nigh impossible again.

Even if he isn't the answer, this is the kind of thing that moves the needle.  Much as I don't agree with @NBASupes trying to get rid of Trae, the Booker deal is something you consider given timing and circumstances.  Depending on the timing, it's not a reactionary move.  Same with Zion.  That's not reactionary, that's the door opening up on a franchise level talent.

Availability changes depending on timing.  I don't know how it is for other fanbases, but the Squawk (and even Hawks management) seems to always be waiting on the perfect timing (or the perfect serviceable big man) to make a deal.  These things don't exist..  What happens is we mark our sacred cows and we hold onto these assets for too long.

We are very fond of incremental change and tweaks.  I'm actually ok with tweaking the roster.  I'm with @Diesel.  I have faith in our core and I think we're close with the right mix of tweaks.  Regardless, I would gamble on a game changer like Zion.  I would pull that trigger with zero regrets.

^^This is "fat" Zion out here destroying the NBA.  I have zero concerns about his health, attitude, or rebounding if I could pair him with Trae in his prime.  If he's available, it's too good to pass up.  Even if it goes bad, it'll be like going out in an unholy blaze of glory...lol

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

"3-D chess, burd.  Everybody's going for the 6-pack?  Well, I got the keg." - Zion

@Wretch, this is the brand of humor you can look forward to if the trade happens.  Happy? 

LOL...

Y'know, one of the fun/interesting things for me about the Squawk is watching how all of our alliances shift during the different eras.  It's crazy watching us take different positions on things.  One day, we're yuk'yukin it up...then one day we are mortal enemies. lol

I'm on the Zion Trae tho.  Sorry man, I'm 100% sold on the pairing and I'll take all the toldjaso's if we get him and it flops.  For the record, I do have concerns and I'm not confident that he could succeed in any environment.  I'm not suggesting that at all and it could go downhill for him elsewhere.  Absolutely. 

This is the ideal landing spot for him though and short of adding a Giannis or Embiid type stud, he is the next best thing {potentially} for Trae.  I imagine that's why they covet him (along with the surplus of asses he and Trae would fill Statefarm with...good lord).