CBAreject

I voted for cak, but seriously, we should take into account the position of the pick. Keefe was probably the 2nd worst pick because of his lottery status. Also, I think that Dickau should be considered since we traded a decent pick to move up and get him. That whole fiasco was ridiculous because we should've drafted Tony Parker or even Tinsley, but traded the pick to wait a year and draft Dickau who is completely overmatched???

I'm thinking that one of Kirk Snyder, J.R. Smith, Josh Smith, and Luke Jackson will be on the board at 17. Who agrees with this? I think we take one of the 4. That is, if we keep the pick. I think one of the Smiths will go in the lottery...

Not long now, eh? I'm starting in about 6 weeks! Geez!

The probability of picking 2nd is 11.2%. I made a mistake in the calc's. I forgot to exclude atlanta as one of the teams that could pick 1st. Once that scenario is excluded, it drops the probability to 11.2%. So, 1st: 10.4% 2nd: 11.2% 3rd: 12.1% I also must've miscalculated 6th.... Some mathdude on NBAdraft.net has them correct, it appears. Looks like I wasted some time.

So, this was requested recently. Here are the probabilities I calculated for different scenarios. 1) Picking 1st: 10.4% 2) Picking 2nd: 12.4% 3) Picking 3rd: 12.1% 4) Picking 6th: 15.1% 5) Picking 7-9: 49.9% Scenario #5 can be divided into 3 distinct scenarios, but that is very time consuming, and I've already spent too much time making the excel chart to calculate scenarios 3 and 4. Nicholas, here are the number of balls: 1: 250 2: 200 3: 157 4: 105 5: 104 6: 64 7: 44 8: 29 9: 18 10: 11 11: 7 12: 6 13: 5 To calculate the probability that the Hawks pick 3rd, given that the 1 and 2 teams pick 1st and 2nd, respectively, P = (250/1000)*(200/(1000-250))*(104/(1000-250-200)). So, that's (probability of team 1 picking 1st) x (prob. of team 2 picking 2nd, given that team 1 has chosen 1st) x (prob. team 5 picks 3rd, given that team 1 and 2 have chosen 1st and 2nd, respectively) These must be summed for every combination of teams picking 1st and 2nd (excel).

Yes, the balls for the 4th, 5th, and 6th picks will be added together and divided by 3. However, there is still a tiebreaker. I believe it is head-to-head records. This tiebreaker comes into effect when two or more of the teams don't win the lottery. For example, if Hawks have a 3-way tie for 4th, but neither the Hawks, Suns, or Clips win the lottery, which team picks 5th, 6th, or 7th (Bobcats 4th)? So, there must be a tiebreaker. Also, when the number of balls doesn't divide evenly, the extra balls go to the team(s) that win the tiebreaker.

We are now tied with Phoenix and 1 game ahead of LAC. If Phx wins, we are all alone in 5th. If LAC wins we are in a 3 way tie for 4th. Which is better? I think the 3 way tie for 4th is a smidge better probability-wise. BUT, if we beat Boston and LAC wins, we pass both teams, and we're all alone in 6th.

Billy Knight should be shot if he trades the #5 pick for a flopped #5 pick! Aren't you the same guy who wanted to trade the #3 pick for Penny Hardaway?? I'm going to be sick!

"However, there is no guarantee as to where Hawks will draft. We will go up or down with the odds changing with every pick." I don't know exactly what that means, but I think you're saying, 'We cannot be certain where we will pick.' I think we all understand that, as this point has been belabored. Yes, it is a lottery, and no team's position is set. We've gone over this. I think some people have used this as a reason to harp at those who want the team to lose out. At any rate, those who wanted a couple of cheap wins have gotten them, and our chances at a top pick have vanished. Maybe we still draft 1-3. It might still happen. However, the chances have gone from near 50% to something like 10%. If you were playing Russian Roulette which one would you choose, mule?

Oh, so he's a better announcer because his team won? GEEZ! I think that's a good argument for point guards, but the announcers never get on the floor. Why am I wasting my time, though? The illogical cannot be persuaded with logic.

I guess you mean that the Bobcats are 4th? Anyhow, for the sake of arguments, we should hope that this tie holds up. That would be good, at this point. If we win again, we lose more balls by falling out of a tie. Orlando Chicago Wash Phx LAC Atl I'm going to be sick. Yeah! I'm glad we won 3 games recently to secure a mediocre pick and another decade of mediocrity. I'm Joe Fan who doesn't understand delayed gratification. *barf*

Sura - 3 yr 9.2 million. (starts at 3) Jax - 4 year 27 million. (starts at 5.5) Pryz - 1 year 3.3 million. (3.3) Swift - 4 years 23 Million. (5) Leon Smith - 3 year 7 million. (2, and WHY???) Brevin Knight - 3 year 8 Million. (2.5) Draft Smith/Humphries in the first round. Sato in the Second. (Total 4 mil) OK, so you have spent 3 + 5.5 + 3.3 + 5 + 2 + 2.5 + 4 = 25 million bux of our cap space????? Do we even have that to spend? AND, you spent some of it on Leon Smith????? I'm going to be sick. Actually, 3.3 comes of the books with Pryz. If you add that to Henderson and Crawford's salaries, that's enough for a FA the following year. HOWEVER, I would rather not sign all of these mediocre players. Mullin was quoted in the AJC today. He mentioned that many NBA teams had gotten into trouble by overspending on mid level players. Doesn't sound like he wants to do what you propose.

Quote: Exactly...I see no way we will have the 3rd best record. Washington is not going to win another game. Go check out their remaining schedule. It is brutal!! Atlanta will probably win 1 or 2 games. True we stand a good chance at topping Chicago, but to win another game would require an upset. Washington, on the other hand plays 2 below .500 teams, 2 .500 teams, and 1 top notch opponent. So, you think we will 'probably' pull an upset, but there is 'no way' that Washington will? I would hesitate to say that there is 'no way' that Washington could tie us. Quote: We are slated for the 4th worse record. Our only hope is that the lottery balls bounce our way. If not look for the 4th best player in the draft. I really hope Josh Smith is there at the No. 4 spot, however I think he will be picked 3rd. We may end up with the 7'6 European. You can't pass him up because of his height We cannot pick 4th. The Bobcats are slated to pick there. It's top 3 or 5th.

I think some of us have taken to this scrappy bunch, but we should remember that they lose the majority of the time. Some think that these close losses mean that the addition of one player while retaining the 'core' will merit a playoff berth next season. We should understand why we lose these games, though. Sure, the rebounding could be better. However, the chief reason for our losses are a lousy shooting percentage. Bob Sura and Jason Terry both shoot for low percentages, and a championship cannot be won this way. I argue that those two in the backcourt will not go far. Stephen Jackson may be a different story. I like what he's doing. However, Sura and Terry cannot be our starting guards if we're to have championship aspirations.

I spend all this time listing the odds for each scenario, including the one in which we tie with Washington. Then, you say that it doesn't do any good to tie with them? It does plenty of good to tie with Washington. While it's true that they get a higher pick IF WE BOTH fall out of the top 3, we would greatly increase our chances at a top 3 by tying. The lotto balls are divided between all teams, with bad teams getting more than better teams. If there is a tie between two teams, those teams have the same number of balls. So, for our circumstances, the number of balls for the 3 team and the number for the 4 team are averaged, and we get the same number as washington.

Is he related to Prybilla?

The Clippers have had very high picks and been horrible in spite of them. HOWEVER, we can't say that the Clippers would've been better off picking a little lower. That's my point. All things equal, I want the highest pick possible. Suppose the Spurs picked 2nd when Duncan was available. Suppose the Bulls picked 7th when Jordan was available. Suppose the Cavs picked 4th when LeBron was available. Those franchises were or will be made by their picks.

I know, it sucks that we have to place our hopes on a high school kid, but what else have we got? You know, we wouldn't have to trade up if we'd just tank. Delayed gratification, folks.

I like being lousy! Let's go 3-3 the rest of the way! I can't wait for next year! P.S. No, I can't help being a sarcastic jerk when it comes to my basketball team. The only solace I had was that the last 5 years of horrible basketball might culminate in a #1 draft pick. That is looking less and less likely. It would be one thing if we had Lebron to build around, but we don't, and we won't be acquiring that star with the 8th pick in the draft. -How can I root for them to lose? Call it delayed gratification.

The Clippers are 2 games ahead of us in the league standings at 27-50. The Clips have lost 10 consecutive games, though. This team was a somewhat respectable 25-31 at one point, but has gone 2-19 and will probably lose out and let Phoenix pass or tie them (since they play once more). Since it doesn't appear that LAC will win again, we could easily tie them. If Phoenix wins once against LAC and finishes with 27 wins and the Clipps lose out, we could very easily finish in a three way tie with them, or, if we're very ambitious, we could pass both of them. That would be a horrible scenario. True, we could still get a high pick, but that would be very improbable,and picking 8th would be lousy. We play Chicago once and Boston twice. We could easily win 2 of those 3. Those of you who want to win a couple of games to barely nose out of the high pick range may well get your chance.

Quote: Well if this team is going to be compete every night. Odds are that they are going to win sometimes. You can not be competitive and still lose all your games. The odds are that you would win a few and not lose them all. I have to take exception to this. Nevermind the fact that 'Well if this team is going to be compete every night.' isn't even a sentence. That's not what I'm arguing about. The thing here is that Nicholas and I both have said that what is IDEAL is that we compete BUT lose. We have never said that such a scenario is probable. We have simply stated that such is the outcome that we would chose if given the choice. Now, you are arguing that the scenario we have chosen is improbable; therefore, we have no right to desire it. Let's break it down: NICK's argument: I want the Hawks to play hard and lose close. PHOOSTAL: You're not a true Hawks fan. NICK: No, no. Losing is best for us in the long run, but competing gives us a glimmer of hope. It's win/win. PHOOSTAL: I repeat, you're not a Hawks fan, and we might not even get a good pick if we do lose. NICK: Sigh. You don't understand expected value. We need to increase our probability in spite of the fact that we cannot be guaranteed a high pick. PHOOSTAL: OK, but, we probably can't lose and compete at the same time. NICK: So, you do understand probabilities. However, your point is moot. I've simply stated that it is ideal that we lose and compete, not that it is probable.

OK, so we're probably going to finish #4 worst this year. Here's what it means for us and how much it would help to let Washington catch or pass us: 1) Hawks finish as 4th worst team without a tie: Scenario Probability Pick 1st 12.0% Pick 2nd 12.7% Pick 3rd 13.4% Pick top 3 38.1% Pick 5 or below 61.9% 2) Hawks finish as 3rd worst team without a tie Scenario Probability Pick 1st 15.7% Pick 2nd 15.8% Pick 3rd 15.7% Pick top 3 47.2% Pick 5 or below 52.8% 3) Hawks finish tied for 3rd worst with Washington Scenario Probability Pick 1st 13.9% Pick 2nd 14.4% Pick 3rd 14.0% Pick top 3 42.3% Pick 5 or below 57.7% So, there you have it. Being number 3 vs. number 4 would increase our chances at a top three by almost 25% (47% vs. 38%). Still, having even a 47% chance at a top 3 isn't very comforting.

Nicholas, you have lectured me about being a jerk, and I deserved it. See, it's frustrating trying to construct logical arguments on this board, only to have them fall on ign'ant ears. There are two things at work here: 1) It seems our only hope as a franchise is a little lotto luck. That said, we need to lose as much as possible so that we can improve our chances at a high pick. Winning does nothing now but decrease those chances. What's to debate? 2) We also agree that we need to be able to sign a high profile free agent with all of our newfound cap space. BUT, be advised--that will not happen this offseason. No, it will happen next. All things equal, we'd prefer to have something going into next season to pair with said lotto choice, so that we can be a team on the rise. What we need is a skeleton of a team that hustles and will give enough effort next year. SO! we want to lose, but we want to lose close, dammit. We want to say, 'Dang, with just one more player, we're a playoff team next year!' Why is this hard for people to understand, Nicky? I tell Phoostal that 29 wins is no better than 26, and he responds with what? "Well, if some team with 29 wins gets the #1 pick, you'll wish that we had won some extra games." GUH? I repeat, GUHHHHH? That makes no sense, Nick. You can never say, 'Oh, if we'd won more games we would've probably picked higher.' It just doesn't work that way, and it's far too draining to try to explain the reason why to someone like Phoostal...so I didn't. You, sir, shouldn't, either. That's a whole lotta commas for such a short sentence, but I assure you that they all were necessary. Perhaps I'm trying to appear intelligent again

Quote: ....I can handle the fact that the Hawks lost this game, but I can't stand the fact that they lost this game due to a terrible no call on Posey. Whoa, cowboy. I should hope you can 'handle the fact' that we lost. I mean, we've done it 49 other times this year, and now we benefit from losing, since 29 wins is really no better than 26 and our pick would be worse. I don't understand your reasoning. First of all, it's terrific that we lost, and that needs no more discussion. Second, it's even better that we played well enough to win, giving us hope for the future. Third, it's better still that we actually lost on a fluke bad call. So, we actually should've won. Aren't the basketball gods smiling down upon us tonight? What gives??

What is the opinion here on Romain Sato? I personally think he is a very complete player. I would love to get him high in the second round, but I believe he has pushed his stock into the bottom of the first. He is a very strong, skilled, heady player who is very active on defense. I think he will be a terrific NBA player. He's not an all-star, but he's a great guy to have on your team.