thecampster

2 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Who did Giannis play against at 18? 

Everyone is not Giannis. And he played in Greece.  He was drafted 15th because he wasn't considered a sure thing. For every Giannis, there are 30 other guys who don't pan out when drafted. The number 1 reason, the added weight impedes their athleticism. The #2 reason, they discover the NBA is hard.

How good is the NBL, the home of Perth. I submit to you Isaac Humphries of the Adelaide 36ers, their only Center.

Humphries played basketball at the University of Kentucky in 2015-2016.  In 2015, he had averages of 1.9 points, 2.4 boards in 9.1 minutes as a freshman.  As a sophomore, 2.8 points, 2.8 boards in 8.3 minutes per game.

In 2017 Humphries went to the NBL after going undrafted in the NBA. His rookie year he averaged 6.9 points and 3.6 rebounds and was named NBL rookie of the year.

In 2018, Humphries signed a training camp deal with our Atlanta Hawks and was waived the next day. In 2019, he signed with the Hawks in April to finish the season as an emergency player. He played in 5 games, 11.2 minutes per game getting 3 points, 2.2 rpg. He played for but was waived by the LA Clippers in their summer league a few months later. He returned to the NBL.

In 2023 for Adelaide, he averaged 15.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game and was named their club MVP. Despite being 7 feet, 251, and a monster in the NBL, he is not considered NBA worthy.

This stiff who couldn't hold a bench spot in the NBA is a starter in that league and a team MVP.  He gets 6 points, 2.2 more rebounds per game than Sarr.

This isn't to say Sarr doesn't have potential but can we please be serious for a moment. This is not who you spend a #1 pick on. This is the competition he's being passed over for.

9 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

This is very true. If you skip the highlights and go straight to "needs to improve" in the highlight videos, there are many instances of him getting abused down low and by shorter players. He gets bullied in the post and struggles when he is the primary defender. If he's the primary defender you can give up on him getting a rebound. 90% of his blocks come on help defense, weak side blocks, chase downs. But 1v1 defense near the basket (post ups, big men 1v1 drives, etc) he gets owned on the regular. Not growing up as a big shows.

He'll get abused in the pick n roll lob game big man drives (Lebron, Giannis, Zion, Jalen Johnson types).  He's got a much better shot as a big 4 (like Garnett, Durant) because much more of that game is played on the perimeter now.  The modern center has too many responsibilities and strength is every bit as important as mobility.  I'm just not sold based on his limitations.

As for the highlight plays. He played the backup center in a much smaller league, where the guard play off the bench was Trent Forrest level. Slow drives, no elite ball handlers. Those watching his perimeter defense are seeing how he'd defend Forrest. They are not seeing how he'd defend Haliburton on the perimeter. His rebounding, post defense was against backup NBL centers. It wasn't against Lopez, Nurkic, Capela types, more or less Embiid/Davis. He is years away. You draft him at 1, you are going to pay him $10 million a year to play a lot at College Park and to come in when we're down 30.  Right now, John Collins would own him in the post.  

You can't even toss it to him in the post for a reset because he doesn't have the post handles for 2 dribbles and punch it back out. He's a project, not a player right now and anyone saying differently is drinking the Kool-aid.

Please read this article before anymore Jamestown kool-aid drinking wastes a #1 overall pick. Focus on the below paragraph.

https://www.sportskeeda.com/basketball/nbl-vs-nba-5-major-differences-two-leagues-decoding-makes-nba-better

He was the backup center in this league getting 9 ppg and 4.7 boards.  He got 7.7/3 in their playoffs.  This is not 1st overall pick worthy.  Please have some sense here.  You draft Sarr, he isn't playing meaningful minutes for 3 years while handicapping the team with a substantial salary. Are you willing to wait?  You draft Clingan, he can at least be a bench center this year.  

39 minutes ago, JTB said:

May be true but camp…he’s going to have to put on more weight either way. He don’t have to get Giannis muscular but he need to be strong.

i don’t think the extra weight he has now is playing too much of a heavy role on his lateral quickness but that’s just my opinion. He’s still on the smallish thin mint side to me.

My comments relate directly to him as a 5. I see his best fit as a 4 but only if he improves from 3.

2 minutes ago, KB21 said:

 

He will ALWAYS move better than Edey.  

See combine! That extra weight is already playing a role.

2 hours ago, AtLaS said:

1000%.  Saar has already beefed up 8 lbs in less than a year.  He was 216 at Perth last year, measured at 224 at the combine.  The dude will be 240-250 in 2 years and MUCH stronger.

And he won't move near as well because of it. You don't put on 30lbs and get better laterally.

2 hours ago, Jody23 said:

Disagree.  He's 19 years old and will most certainly get stronger.  His speed, length, agility, and instincts on defense will make him a real threat as a help defender at the NBA level.

You realize he played a backup role for Perth? All of his stats are against backup g-league level talent.

1 hour ago, Jody23 said:

Watching this now, Sarr is a 5 with tremendous ability defensively.  Sam Vecenie is great at talent evaluation.  Sarr would fit with Jalen REALLY well.  Beyond that, he looks like the best player in this draft.

He is easily outmuscled by stronger players.....Most of his blocks are help blocks.  He'll get less of those vs NBA talent.

This is a great question but in order to answer it, lets compare our roster to a high level roster, similar cost.

Atlanta vs Indiana



Our top 5 pay slots, all $18-40 million
Their 3-5 pay slots, 7-13 million.

The top 5 salaried players Atlanta, $117,683,506

The top 5 salaried players Indiana,  $88,234,506

Now granted, they get immense value out of Haliburton because he's still on the rookie contract at $5.8 million. But we got good value out of JJ at only $2.9 million but he missed 1/3 of the season last year (26 games).  The difference is we paid $29.4 million more for our top roster talent. The top 3 cost wise missed a combined 62 games last year and played injured in at least 10 others.  If you look at just those 3 players, they had a possible 246 possible games to play between them. They missed (62) 25% of those.

Since the year John Collins was drafted, we have drafted the following players in the 1st round.
John Collins (19) (Traded)

Trae Young
Kevin Huerter (19) -Traded

Omari Spellman (30) - Traded

Deandre Hunter (Underachiever at 4 but NBA talent)

Cam Reddish (10) - Traded

Onyeka Okongwu (Underachiever at 6 but NBA talent)

Jalen Johnson (20)

AJ Griffin (16) - (Underachiever thus far)

Kobe Bufkin (15)

10 1st round picks in 7 years. 4 top 10 picks.   4 traded away, 3 under achievers.  You've had 10 1st round picks in the last 7 years but squandered all but 5, jury is out on 1 of those, two are underperforming to their draft slot.

But you gave $15+ million contracts to 2 of the players traded away.

The short answer....inconsistent draft strategy, poor player management, poor cap management.  You can't pay everybody. You have to be willing to let people walk. Player agents walked all over us.

I think that's a huge part of the mock draft opinions that people should look at and discount...the rookie salary scale.

Here it is below:

I've bolded everything after pick 13.

Now look at the NBA veteran minimum salary table (bolding everything after rookie contract expires):

Lastly, here are the exception totals:
 

When you look at those salaries analyze his cost at position X vs cost of a vet. So as you can see, you give the bi-annual exception to vets you want to sign but have no real salary left to sign.  That's 4.7 million. Everyone else signing is pretty much signing for the minimum (end of bench guys....like Vit should have been, Bruno, etc). So say you wanted to sign a player to fill out the roster who has experience (is useful), they are going to be out of their rookie contract in most cases. That puts them at year 5.  So the minimum you are signing that player for is $2.4 million and a 10 year vet, $3.3 million.

So visit Edey at pick 20, $3.3 million. It is the exact same cost to your cap as a 10 year, end of the bench vet (Wesley Matthews filled this spot for us last year).  So Edey at 20 = Wesley Matthews cost wise and a little more than a Trent Forest.  At 20, Edey = $600,000 more than Bruno Fernando but $21 million less than Clint Capela.

Consider you are an NBA GM.  You have limited funds to build a roster.  The risk/reward prospect of Edey (2-4 year risk) against the reality you are going to spend that salary on someone and that someone is a vet. You already know what they bring and they are going to cost you the same or more salary.  The reward end of the equation of betting on Edey far outweighs the risk if the risk is you don't sign Wesley Matthews. You know the draft is a crap shoot after pick 5 most years, after pick 0 this year. there are almost no sure things in this draft.

Now realize 80% of these picks will only play spot minutes this year. Consider Memphis who paid Santi Adama $3.9 million to get 10 points, 5 rebound per game last year (61 games).  Cost Edey, $600,000 less. Consider Toronto who currently only has 1 center on the roster and is paying Kelly Olenyk $12.8 million per year for the next 3 years.  They'd love to trade out of that, get Edey to be their backup and see if they strike gold. They draft 19th. Phoenix is 109 million over the cap, their only center of note is Nurkic. If they could get off some salary and get another pick in the first round for Edey, they'd do it in a heartbeat.  Utah, Chicago and others would all move things around to take Edey in the teens. 

The draft isn't just about who the casual fan or broadcaster value. Its about value by position, current salary cap, future contract status of your vets, lots of things.  The risk/reward prop of Edey, even as your #2 center and 3-4 million per year locked in is to tantalizing for teams to keep passing on. He isn't going in the 20's.  Drafting Edey will have an immediate effect on season ticket sales, single game ticket sales. Taking him anywhere in the teens will pay for itself in jersey/ticket sales alone. Its an extremely low risk proposition for a franchise.

20 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Brandon Scoop B Robinson: New Orleans Pelicans have scheduled a draft workout with Purdue center Zach Edey. The Pelicans have the No. 21 overall pick in next month’s NBA Draft. With multiple reports indicating that Jonas Valanciunas may not return to NOLA because of perceived fit alongside their star player, Zion Williamson, Pels could look to draft the 7’4 300 pound Edey if available.

– via Twitter

Its looking increasingly like he won't be on the board at 21.  10-14 looks like the spot right now.

If he's on the board at 20, at least 5 teams would be looking to trade back into the 1st round to take a flyer on him. The rookie scale salary at pick 20 is 3.3 million. That's a smidge more than end of the bench guy. That's super low risk.

9 minutes ago, terrell said:

Too many people agreeing with me lately...

Quit being right then.

13 hours ago, terrell said:

Dalton Knect

 

I'm with Terrell on this one.  I think of all the players in this draft, he has the narrowest floor/ceiling.  He's a Bogi/Korver clone.  He's not the best offensive player in the draft, but he's good and he translates to the NBA. He's not a great defensive player, he's almost good (not quite).  He won't get a ton better on the defensive end but he's playable.  Offensive end, same. he's going to score, going to shoot the 3. Will he be MJ, no...but he's going to be a solid NBA starter sooner rather than later.  

Some of the guys in this draft will use their entire Rookie contract before you'll know if he'll break through. This guy can be a rotation guy year 1.

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

Is there a criteria to just close the thread down?  I don't think there's been a new thought posted here in over a month, including my own post I just submitted

Just posted new video from a former NBA player stating Edey should be the first pick.

2 hours ago, KB21 said:

Except in no universe is Edey ever a starter in the NBA.  He's never going to be even an average defensive player, and he lacks skill on offense.  You legitimately would using a high pick on a 3rd center in rotation.  

So @KB21 does he not understand the NBA?
 

But using this g-league to pro conversion or euro to pro conversion,  let's sample Jalen Johnson in the g league vs Jalen Johnson in the NBA season 3.

G-League starter. 20.1 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 4.1 apg

NBA starter 2023-24, 16 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 3.6 apg.

This is why you can draw some conclusion about g-league play and why I'm not getting excited by a player who went straight to the g-league and isn't putting up at least 15 ppg.

Now consider this forum thread by NBL fans comparing themselves to the G-League (fans of Perth). They routinely say the G-league is more talented, but they are better drilled. They call the leagues a wash if they played each other.

https://www.hoops.com.au/forum/43839-nbl-or-g-league/

On 5/23/2024 at 6:12 PM, AtLaS said:

100%.  I would even argue that playing in an Australian Pro league is better competition than the NCAA on a game by game basis.  NCAA stats are many times inflated because of cupcake games against teams like Charleston Southern.  In a pro league, all games are against pros and playing against 25-30 year olds that are on average much stronger than college kids.  I also read that many Perth fans wanted the coach to play Sarr more minutes.

Stats are deflated in college vs the NBA due to the longer shot clock and no 3 second rule. It is much harder to score in the post and on dribble drives.

Also remember NBA games are 8 minutes longer.

This all leads to the average college game having aboutn70 possessions, NBA game about 100. Given a 50% FG% this inflates NBA scoring and rebounding stats about 30%.

This doesn't mean a player scoring 20 in college scores 26 in the NBA. There is the filter rate where bad players filter out, good player filter in. So many good college players fizzle out.

Of the 2 videos I posted, watch the 2nd one to the end.

https://youtu.be/wq2InnsujIU?si=VylBEFp8LzouZbBo

https://www.11alive.com/video/sports/locked-on/lo-national/college-basketball-show/zach-edey-stephon-castle-among-nba-draft-stock-risers-after-combine-what-to-make-of-bronny-james/535-b505d4b6-b5dd-4e08-a344-c58ced79c7f8

2 minutes ago, Hawkish said:

More agile and skilled Kyle Korver?  Yes, please. 

His game is very skilled and similar to Korver.  He'd be a bench player for us but probably rotation in the 2/3 role squeezing out Matthews/Griffin minutes.

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

I would not start him over Bogi next year.  They do the same thing but Bogi is much more proven and knows where to be on both ends of the floor better than any rookie will.  If Knecht turns into something significantly better than Bogi, I'm not optimistic it will be next season.

He was on my radar at 10 with the assumption that DJM is traded and Snyder is done with Griffin.

Yah, that's why I was saying 7 with the proposed trade. He's not 1 worthy. No one this year is.

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

Agree.  But the only way to get a star is to:

(a) draft him;

(b) sign him in FA (X); or

(c.) trade for him (long shot).

I would pursue a trade this offseason but know that only the draft is open to me unless something unexpected happens.  If we miss on the evaluation or get unlucky, those are the breaks.  And maybe there just isn't a true star in this draft in which case I'd expect our GM to trade the pick accordingly.  But that depends on where our GM lands on that.  For now, I'm assuming there will be one or more players that our GM thinks have that potential.

In the draft I'm betting on Dalton Knecht to be that dude.  Everything I saw from him in the tourney told me was going to be a very good pro. Narrower floor ceiling than most but closest thing to a sure fire bet I can think of in this draft. He's a winner which to me is the best stat.
 

7 minutes ago, hylndr11 said:

That Detroit deal seems more like a reset.  Wouldn't give up the 1 in that deal 

Consider this deal.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10120942-trade-packages-for-the-no-1-pick-in-2024-nba-draft

1. 
   
    
2. You trade Capela and #1.  You walk out of the draft with Matisse Thybulle, Dalton Knecht and Zach Edey and clear $12 million in total cap room. Or you pass through Thybulle to Detroit and take back Ausar Thompson instead.  That's 3 players (regardless of the version you take) that can all play here this year.  Or you take Sarr and hope he can play meaningful minutes next year.

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

and frankly I'm not even sure which draftee would be guaranteed to start on this roster next year absent a mandate from the front office

Let that resonate. Is that what you spend a #1 pick on?  That pick has value and the value isn't just the player it returns.  Swing big by getting a haul back.  Use it to move some dead salary off the roster for a current cornerstone piece. But don't spend it on a maybe, an if.