thecampster

1 hour ago, benhillboy said:

Yeesh, Edy better hope that’s simply a haphazard projection and noting more.  I love me some Steven Adams, all the rest of those pros outside of Clingan are wastebasket action for me.  
 

What under the radar player projects as the next (healthy) Johnathan Isaac?  That’s what the f&@k I want.  Granted I did see some bright flashes from Gueye late, but it’s high time the Hawks acquired a gameplan-wrecker on defense who’s naturally equipped feel, length, and footwork-wise to fix breakdowns.

Adams was not always as bulky as he is now. He was 255 when he came out (25 lbs lighter than Clingan). Read this draft profile, compare it to Edey's and their bSPARQ. The narrative is broken. 

What those criticizing do not realize is he was scoring like this being fouled relentlessly and had to stay on the floor at all times for Purdue. His super low foul numbers are proof he was told not to challenge shots like a normal big his size. Most of his deterrence was his shear size. The at the.rim percentage is high, but the attempts were low. Teams tried to beat Purdue on the perimeter.

7 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

bSPARQ is an offshoot of SPARQ1, which stands for Speed Power Agility Reaction and Quickness, and it is a tool to measure the athleticism of NBA Draft prospects.

NBA% is the percentile of athleticism a player’s bSPARQ scores at his position. Those position designations are automated based on how a player was listed at the combine.

Who the Hawks take is dependent on who they can trade.  Of their top 8 players right now, no one is safe. not even DJM, Trae or Jalen (though it would take something ridiculous for him to go). 

But scenarios

DJM or Trae is traded, Reed Shepherd is on the table.
Hunter is traded, first a haul comes back and either of Holland or Risacher is on the table, depending on where we land pick wise (1 vs 2, etc).
Clint is traded or OO is traded (yes that's possible right now), multiple bigs are on the table, especially if picks come back to allow for it.  Lets play that one out.  OO is traded, you're either getting a high player or a top 10 pick back.  You're minus 1 big.  Edey, Clingan are now on the table.  Clint/OO stays, you might take Sarr and let him develop at College Park.  But you trade OO/Clint  and expect the new center to produce, it won't be Sarr. He isn't ready.

What I'm listing above are the if/then statements of contingency boards. We have a bunch of Contingency boards right now dealing with possible trade backs (there are many on the table right now, discussed, being negotiated and playing teams off each other...you've seen media leaks).  There is not 1 player in this year's draft who would replace one of our starters in the starting lineup without a trade (except maybe Zach Edey).  That's it...no trade...Sarr nor Clingan is not playing over Clint/OO....no trade and Risacher isn't playing over Hunter/Jalen.  No trade and Reed Shepherd isn't starting over Trae or DJM or Kobe or Garrison Matthews or Bogi for that matter.  Without trades, there is almost zero 1st year value from anyone we'd draft with the top pick.  

The above is a sliver of why you aren't hearing anything in the news.  Teams with the top pick have holes. They got the top pick because they suck. We don't suck. We managed to win 36 games despite most of our player games missed being to our top 8 and having a huge amount of player games missed. We don't suck, none of our starters suck, so in a weak draft, nobody comes in and takes a starting job. Teams with the top pick usually aren't in the luxury tax. Without trades, we are.  We are playing out 2 things right now. Who we draft and who we trade. Both are going to happen but we're keeping 2 secrets at once. If we had holes to fill in the starting lineup, who we draft wouldn't be a mystery. There would be no reason to keep that secret. But because we have players to move and that 1st pick is our golden chip in the game, we can't let anyone know "why" we're soliciting them for trades (picks or players).

Its nice to say, "take this guy, he has the most upside" but this is a 3d chess scenario, not hungry hungry hippos.  Instead of just responding to everything I say with he can't guard on the perimeter, start thinking about the myriad of scenarios that need to play out this offseason. Don't be so tied to your argument, you lose sight of the big picture. This isn't your normal #1 pick season.

1 hour ago, KB21 said:

Reality is going to hit hard for you.  First, it will be when he gets drafted in the 20s.  Then, it will be when his game doesn't translate to the NBA.  

You want some insider news?  Here you go.

Multiple teams have inquired about moving up to take Edey at 14/16 with Portland considering holding the pick to draft him. Golden State being the most prominent with the biggest need.  Utah has interest in him at 10.  There has been other talk based on how the rumors run heading up to draft night of him moving in to the top 8.  There are no less than 8 teams expressing interest in him with their pick and/or moving up to get him. You know so little about this its laughable. 

Edey has worked out for 7 NBA teams so far (publicly). At least 2 of which have run him through switch coverage drills and he was better than expected.  Right now teams are downplaying him hoping he'll fall to them.  The biggest culprit of this right now is the Laker market. If he's there at 17, he's theirs. They and their surrogates in the media/social media have been pushing the narratives on Edey hoping he'll fall to them.

He has turned down workouts with multiple teams at this point as he knows he's writing his own ticket right now and would prefer to go to a win now culture.  Most of his visits haven't been announced until the workout was done to keep the media circus down. 

Teams' main concern with him was "if I take him top 5 and he's what people are criticizing him for, I'll get fired".  The window for him right now is outside the top 5, he looks like a much smaller PR risk if he doesn't pan out. If he's needle starts to rise, there are GMs that will trade into the top 10 to get him (right now).  

The Hawks have leveraged all 3 of the current top 3 right now to try and get trade out of the top pick leverage.  All the bluster you've heard on the top 3 right now is just that, bluster.  They've been trying to drive value into the pick.  They could take any of a number of people but the names mentioned have been mentioned specifically because certain other teams want those players (see Risacher and the Spurs) and we've been trying to drive up interest.  The front office has been hush hush on who they're taking. I said this weeks ago and people didn't believe it, thought Sarr was a lock at 1.   

I'm not married to Edey and it isn't going to hit hard for me if he isn't the pick.  But every time he goes for 20/10 his rookie year, everyone who didn't take him is going to kick themselves.  Its the biggest draft no-brainer outside of Wemby in years.

16 minutes ago, KB21 said:

He literally can't defend at the NBA level at all.  He's not a good rim protector.  Teams shot 61% against Edey on rim shots this year.  Compare that to 42% against Clingan.  That's with Edey camped out in the paint.  He's simply to slow reacting to the actions defensively.  He's not going to be even an average defender in the NBA.  You cannot play him at the level of the screen in PNR coverage at all.  If he's away from the pain, he's toast.  

Wondering if you just have your Edey responses copied ready to paste?  You realize only a few people here are sharing this opinion now.  The tape, testing, workouts, just don't add up to your narrative and that's what it is at this point...just a narrative.

But Camp, he won't be able to do that against NBA centers.  My dudes....that's a guy that's projected to go top 20 as a center and is a 7 footer. 

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

Edey vs Kel'el Ware (top 20 pick prospect) - Police called, child abuse
 

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

Every team, #1 included that pass on him are going to regret it!!!

This dude should be the #1 pick and it isn't close.

What do the experts really know?

On 6/14/2024 at 8:20 PM, KB21 said:

Looks like Edey didn’t want to be the last one left in the green room.  

LOL EDS, Edey derangement syndrome.  Seriously man, how can you hate so much on a 2 time NCAA player of the year.  The NBA isn't showing him love right now. Why should he return the favor?  Zach Edey goes to the Australian league next year and he's that leagues MVP. You know it. You just don't want to say it.

She's a youtuber...fair is fair!!!

7 minutes ago, Afro said:

Oh but NBA Chev is fine because he agrees with you? 

Please be serious man. This place is losing the plot. 

Tell me where he's wrong!

FYI, Edey in the tournament.  30/16.3/1.8/1.8 on 65.6% shooting.

4 minutes ago, Afro said:

So someone who was employed as a draft analyst for half a decade is bullshit but "NBA Chev" is fine? 

The f***? 

We've all been NBA analysts on this board, some of us for 2 decades.  She's a social media hire. she founded the position and worked for Yahoo already. It was a try it position.  She's not a real analyst.  Lets be honest here. I linked her freaking LinkedIn on purpose.

Some logic and reason for you.
 

1 hour ago, KB21 said:

 

Citing Krysten Peek's opinion on the NBA is not helping your case.

But entertaining Peek's argument that he'll get hunted.  If you're not taking a big because you no longer take a big 1st or you don't take Edey because you don't think he can play 82 games at 300lbs or you don't take Edey because he'll get hunted and therefore he's an end of the first round pick, you just made the argument for Clingan taken after him or in the 2nd round.

Clingan shoots worse than Edey, is less agile than Edey, plays drop coverage as well and is 280lbs at 2 inches shorter.  Peek's argument also makes Clingan a first of the 2nd round pick.
 

But if you want to hang your hat on Peek and call that expert opinion, please do.  She rose to fame as a video editor...not exactly great creds.  5 years at yahoo as their "draft analyst" is her only basketball related experience mainly following high school and college. but you do you fam.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/krysten-peek-6359b697/details/experience/

Just now, KB21 said:

So you are ignoring the positive shooting indicators and his off the dribble ability.  We are just going to act like those don’t exist.  

I'm not acting.

1 hour ago, Afro said:

I'm not comparing play styles or ability here at all.... But Tacko Fall is a perfect example of what you mean. 

Being huge by itself isn't a plus. 

Tacko Fall had very little offensive game or skills. He was just tall/big.  We are not talking that with Edey. Edey is very skilled.

Just now, gurpilo said:

This is exactly what was said about Pau Gasol then.... Some years after he was a PF, even more a C in today´s NBA. Sarr will not be as gifted on offense, but defense should be much better. 11 ppg on Spanish league at age 21.... 

 

NBA Comparison: Toni Kukoc

Strengths: Pau is the hope of all the people who like basketball in Spain. Pau is the star of the league. He also said rencently he wants to go to the NBA, but he wants to wait at least until 2002 (in this year he finish his contract with Barcelona), Gasol can play of SG, SF, PF or C, but his natural position is SF. In the paint he lacks strengh and struggles against stronger players. When playing at his true SF position he has no comparison in Europe. He can shoot 2 pointers, can slam (he loves it), can run in the fastbreak, and can play in low and high post. He is a complete player. Has a bright future in the NBA.

When Gasol came over, many more Euro stayed in Europe, came over later. It wasn't better but it was more competitive. More old men playing. Was hard to get playing time.  I'm not sure you can draw a ton from that.

Very good analysis starting at the 5 minute mark. Goes through all top picks.
 

10 hours ago, KB21 said:

A better comparison for Edey is Sheldon Williams.  College player of the year.  Elite rebounder.   Overlooked his physical limitations and thought he’d recreate his production in the NBA.  

Dude that's a reach.

19 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

If I remember correctly it wasn't his skill and potential that made him drop - more about injuries and concerns about leaving IMG and Duke. 

That's my point. Experts have a bad habit of talking themselves out of proven picks for a myriad of reasons. There were no doubts about his ability but they managed to diminish the ability in light of his questions marks. But then talk themselves into picks with proven question marks in the name of potential.

I think JJ is my easiest comparison here for the experts being wrong.

Jalen played half of his Duke season injured and withdrew from the post season to protect his body for the draft. He only averaged 21 mpg. But in the few games where he got full minutes and was healthy he was scary good. He had a 19/19/5/4 game to start the year. Later had a 24/16/7/4 game in 33 minutes. Jalen's talent was never in question, only his health/commitment. 

The experts talked him out of a top 5 pick all the way down to falling into the Hawks' laps at 20.  On draft night, I had already prepared for a world without him as our pick. Mentally to me, he was off the board. you can go back and see where I chatted, "wth, he was still on the board".  I was advocating for us to move up to get him or Sengun because I was sure they'd be gone by 10-12. But the expert talent evaluators said Jalen would be a bust. Although the concerns were valid, I was sure he'd be off the board.

Draft night came and "experts" advised their teams and stalwart high upside guys like:

Davion Mitchell

Zaire Williams

James Bouknight??? this high, the lottery?

Josh Primo??? this high, the lottery?

Chris Duarte

Moses Moody

Corey Kispert

Trey Murphey III

Tre Mann

and Kai Jones

All came off the board before Jalen Johnson...because of draft experts.

Those jokers go for "potential" all the time. 

There is a reason the Pistons are the Pistons.  Even when they hit (Cade Cunningham), they miss (90 games missed the last 2 seasons, 108 in 3 seasons).

Those same experts said Trae Young was a mid to late 1st rounder and his game would never translate to the NBA (where have we heard that recently). The mocks showed him going 6-8 with most saying it was a mistake to take him that early.  Early on, the discussion was all whether or not to take Ayton or Bagley 1st.  In that draft, many saw Bagley as the number 1 pick or Ayton.

5 minutes ago, gurpilo said:

I can see Sarr adding 30-40 lbs, been able to guard any big and been able to switch and defend any forward. I can see Sarr becoming a very good offensive player. I can see Sarr becoming Evan Mobley or JJJ. His agility, athleticism, fluidity, defense is very rare for a guy his size.

I cannot see Edey or Clingan surviving in a playoff game more than 15mpg, I think they will be even limited in regular season.

The argument being made on Sarr right now is people saying if he adds those 30 lbs, he'll still be able to guard guards on the perimeter (the knock on the other 2 bigs).

I can accept your opinion on this. No problem with your opinion because you stated it as what you could not see.  That's fair. I'm cool with that.  What I'm not okay with is others saying "he won't, never will" end of discussion. I'll try to keep this to Clingan. His free throw shooting to me is a clear indication that he's very Clint like and will never be useful outside of 12 feet. He brings a few things I like but never ever would I bring him in at #1. I'm aware that's my opinion.  A pretty sound opinion based in stats/facts but still an opinion.

My opinion has been this the whole time.  True #1. There is no true #1 in this draft.  If you trade out of #1, you aren't going to miss out on Wemby, Tatum, Giannis.  Your best case scenario going to miss out on a 16/8 player with great weak side blocking skills.  I'll grant that. This kid tracks weakside and help defense like a falcon, but his upside offense in 3 years (imho) is 16 ppg.  In the NBA, without putting on 30 lbs and potentially harming his best attributes, he's at best an 8 rpg guy.  Those are best case scenarios...again, imho.  So you can get that at pick 10, pick 14...heck, we got it at pick 20 in JJ.  Not 100% sure I want to take that risk. Others do and that's fine, but I don't.  If I want to commit to a #1 pick, I want him to be Tim Duncan, Giannis, Luka, Trae, Tatum, Jokic, etc guaranteed. I don't see that here and again, I realize that's my opinion, one I've grounded in stats, analysis and facts but still an opinion.

I don't frame my posts (or try not to) with you're wrong, no way he'll be, won't be, isn't, etc. I try to frame them in either facts/stats or clearly as "my opinion".