bird_dirt

Ok, so are you taking Vit or Forrest for the playoff roster?

Just now, Spud2nique said:

He’s going for POG season high 19!

His price tag going up. 

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

The Zombie Hawks giving up the lead 

Come on Hawks. This isn’t how you show your appreciation to the fans. 

Adding more fuel to the fire…

 

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/39906470/nba-draft-2024-projecting-30-best-prospects

 

NBA draft 2024: Projecting 30 of the best prospects

Kevin Pelton, ESPN Senior Writer

Apr 10, 2024, 08:00 AM ET

Atypically in the one-and-done men's college basketball era, Monday's national championship game featured two of the top four prospects in my stats-based projections squaring off against each other. Purdue center Zach Edey, the consensus national player of the year, and UConn counterpart Donovan Clingan are among the standouts in what's been panned as a weak 2024 NBA draft class.

Although Edey had a dominant game (37 points, 10 rebounds), Clingan's ability to defend him one-on-one enabled the Huskies to stay home on Edey's teammates and limit 3-point attempts as the Huskies won their second title in a row.

Clingan and Edey are among four prospects with a consensus projection of 3.0 wins above replacement player (WARP) or better per season at the NBA level. Only the acclaimed 2014 draft (five) featured more such prospects dating back to 2012.

This year's top players are atypical in terms of establishing themselves late in the process, however. Edey was projected in the second round of the preseason mock draft from ESPN's Jonathan Givony, while Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard was nowhere to be found before his freshman season in Lexington.

My projections translate performance in NCAA Division I and other levels to an NBA equivalent then adjust for age and position to project value over a player's next five seasons. Lastly, I add in ESPN's top 100 prospect rankings for the best consensus projection.

For more on how my projections work and past examples, see here.

Now, let's get to the projections for players currently in the top 100.

 

1. Donovan Clingan

UConn
C
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 3

Consensus: 3.7 WARP

Clingan had the top stats-based projection heading into last year's NCAA tournament while coming off the bench on the national championship winner behind NBA-bound Adama Sanogo. Clingan's strong productivity in that role has translated into dominance as a sophomore starter, particularly during the NCAA tournament run.

The 7-foot-2 Clingan would be just the third draft pick in my database projected to block at least 6% of opponent 2-point attempts and secure at least 20% of available defensive rebounds, joining Mo Bambaand Victor Wembanyama. Because he's moved all the way up to third in the top 100, Clingan now has the top overall projection despite dropping to third in the stats-only version.

 

2. Reed Sheppard

Kentucky
G
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 1

Consensus: 3.7 WARP

Although Sheppard's 52% 3-point shooting (on a robust sample of 144 attempts) is regressed down to a projected 39% as an NBA rookie, that's still the best projection for any player since Doug McDermott -- who had multiple years of college data -- in 2014. Sheppard's projected 2.5 steals per 100 plays, second among players in this year's top 100, is almost as impressive as his shooting. Thanks largely to those key skills, Sheppard has the best stats-only projection in this year's draft.

 

3. Alex Sarr

Perth
C
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 4

Consensus: 3.6 WARP

Sarr's stats-only projection is slightly better than the median No. 1 pick in the past 12 drafts. Playing in the Australian NBL at 18 years old, Sarr averaged 20.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes this season. Despite shooting just 30% on 3s, Sarr's 71% accuracy at the line suggests he has the potential to develop into a stretch 5 in time.

 

4. Zach Edey

Purdue
C
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 2

Consensus: 3.1 WARP

Nobody doubts that Edey has been the best player in college basketball. The question is how his skills will translate to the NBA at 7-4. One interesting data point: No college player with a usage projection as high as Edey's has been drafted in the past 12 years. The two players ahead of him, Marquette guard Markus Howard and former Purdue teammate Trevion Williams, played go-to roles that didn't carry over in the NBA. (Williams has yet to play in the league, while Howard did on a two-way contract.) Nonetheless, Edey's dominance has earned him a spot in the first round after he chose to return for his fourth season at Purdue. And, after moving up in the top 100, Edey is the fourth and final player in the top tier of my projections.

 

5. Zaccharie Risacher

Bourg
SF
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 81

Consensus: 2.2 WARP

On the plus side, Risacher -- currently atop ESPN's draft rankings -- averaged 13.1 PPG in just 24 minutes per game during EuroCup play at 18 years old (he turned 19 on Monday), making 57% of his 2s and 56% of his 3s. That performance was out of line with Risacher's play in the French LNB Pro A, however, as he shot just 51% on 2s and 34% on 3s. And a 69% career free throw shooting percentage across all first-division competition suggests Risacher's 3-point hot streak in EuroCup play might not be legitimate. 

5 hours ago, NBASupes said:

I've heard that the Hawks want to run it back with some minor changes.

WLOC2

cool

UK fans are going to miss Cal’s recruiting, that’s for sure. 
Won’t miss the terrible - or I should say Non-coaching. I am sure if we could get a decent coach, the UK name will draw enough talent to make the team more competitive. 

8 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Now UK may steal Bruce Pearl from Auburn. Should be interesting to see if that develops today.

Gross

18 hours ago, Final_quest said:

I’m not set on a particular draft strategy, but we’re running out of slots to develop players.  AJ, Lundy, Bufkin, and Gueye along with our picks in the next draft.  
 

The draft always depends on who is available when you pick.  If a guy falls to you, pick him.

Bufkin is the only safe bet to hold his spot IMO. 
AJ could hold his own, but his place on the team seems tenuous at best. 
MoG should warrant a spot, but given his injuries, I’d bet he spends a lot of time with College Park next season. 
Lundy has no guarantees for anything more than a 12-15th man at best. 
 

I don’t mind replacing Lundy or AJ (if they trade him) with a new draft pick. 

3 hours ago, KB21 said:

Now you can watch the guy the Hawks really need to draft.  Stephon Castle.  

Guard is the last position we should be drafting. 

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

They did a really good job with the format.   My inclination would have been to have 9&10 play a game and then the winner play #8 for the 8th seed and leave #7 out of it.   But as you point out the current format keeps more teams engaged at the end of the year. 

I’d be more on board with something more like this. It just gets a little convoluted with the loser playing again and potentially getting in later. 
 

11 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

 

I hate the play in format. It’s too much. 

2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

 

Atlanta Hawks…making dreams come true!

2 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Strange argument...The team is literally winning with g-league players in the line up every night now but the 1 common denominator is not the key factor?

What’s the one common denominator Peo?

Trae? OO? Bey? Vit? CC’s improved play? Refs calling games differently now? Team adapting to Quin’s system? 

Seems there are a number of factors that could be contributing to me. 

2 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

You really suggesting we trade Bogi and replace him with a rookie UDFA?  That's a bold strategy considering Bogi has been our most consistent and overall most reliable player for large parts of the season.  

Yeah, I really think he could do it.
Now, not 100%, day-one fully replace Bogi of course. He couldn’t fill in as a starter like Bogi can. But I think he could handle his role for 15 minutes a game his first year coming off the bench as a microwave. He’s a three level scorer, and he wouldn’t lose anything defensively from Bogi’s absence.
Dollar for dollar he would be a much better value and we could get decent assets back from trading Bogi, increasing the value of this move. 

I think Reeves age (26?) is the main factor that will drop his stock on draft day. But I think that will mean his experience will make him easier to plug in first year. He was the only KY player to actually perform in their tournament game, lights and pressure didn’t affect him like it did the young guys. 
 

Rather than focusing on one player who has a small chance of being drafted by the Hawks, I’d like to see what your draft big board would be if you ran the Hawks draft room. 

What is your strategy, and what are your player rankings?
 

If we get the Sac pick, I want to come out with at least one C, and one PF or wing. If we only have our own pick, I’d pick best player available among those positions. I’m not looking at any PG, and only SGs big enough to split time at SF. Knecht and Holland are the two smallest players on my board at 6’6” each. 
 

Here’s my draft board

First tier (Taking any of these players if we get a pick in the top 10):

Zaccharie Risacher

Position: SG/SF

Size: 6-foot-8, 204 lbs

 

Alexandre Sarr

Position: PF/C

Size: 7-foot-1, 216 lbs

 

Donovan Clingan

Position: C

Size: 7-foot-2, 280 lbs

 

Cody Williams

Position: SF/PF

Size: 6-foot-8, 190 lbs

 

Kyle Filipowski

Position: PF/C

Size: 7-foot-0, 248 lbs

 

Matas Buzelis

Position: SF

Size: 6-foot-8, 209 lbs

 

Second tier (players I’d be happy to walk away from this draft with if any of the top tier players are gone before we pick):

Ron Holland

Position: SF

Size: 6-foot-6, 204 lbs

 

Zach Edey

Position: C

Size: 7-foot-4, 300 lbs

 

Yves Missi

Position: C

Size: 7-foot-0, 235 lbs

 

Kel’el Ware

Position: C

Size: 7-foot-0, 242 lbs

 

Dalton Knecht

Position: SG/SF

Size: 6-foot-6, 204 lbs

 

Johnny Furphy

Position: SF

Size: 6-foot-9, 202 lbs

 

Third tier (Break glass in case of emergency. Only if we have the Sac pick and all the above players have already been selected): 

Tyler Smith

Position: PF

Size: 6-foot-11, 224 lbs

 

Oso Ighodaro

Position: PF/C

Size: 6-foot-11, 235 lbs

 

Ryan Dunn

Position: PF

Size: 6-foot-8, 216 lbs

 

Tristan da Silva

Position: SF/PF

Size: 6-foot-9, 220 lbs

 

Bobi Klintman

Position: SF/PF

Size: 6-foot-8, 215 lbs

 

 

BONUS UDFA target:

Antonio Reeves

Position: SG

Size: 6-foot-6, 195 lbs

I’m calling Reeves after my last pick and try to get him to agree on a contract in case he doesn’t get drafted. If he goes undrafted and agrees to sign, I’m immediately trading Bogi. Reeves is a walking bucket and could easily become our next Crawford/Lemon Pepper/Bogi off the bench beginning in his rookie year. 

I can’t believe there is so much energy put into this discussion for a guy that has like 1/60 of a chance of getting drafted by the Hawks. 

6 minutes ago, JTB said:

I think Edey offensive touch around the basket is way better but I’m hoping they face off in the championship game. 

Yeah, I’d love to see that. I’d be happy if we drafted Edey. But I’d be really happy if we got Clingan. 

16 hours ago, bleachkit said:

That's why you dont trade young talented guys until you are sure they won't amount to much, like we did with Reddish who was clearly a bust. Clippers trading SGA is a prime example. 

But (and it’s a big butt), you gotta let them go before the rest of the league knows they won’t amount to much. There’s a very small window to make that work.

18 hours ago, KB21 said:

Donovan Clingan is so much better than Edey as a prospect.   He’s much closer to Rudy Gobert than Zach Edey is.  His range defensively is so much better.  Much better athleticism as well.  

I believe this to be true, but I also believe he will be off the board by the time the Hawks pick. 

5 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

celtic fans are the worst.  Started listening to the Locked On Celtic pod and right out the gate, dude says "these games are meaningless."  Then a few minutes later, "They don't care about winning against the Hawks." Then, "This wasn't about making a statement. The celtics know they are good and Hawks know they suck."  

I get it.  The celtics are the top seed in the East and have already locked up their position.  But to act like they didn't care about the game last night?  Nah.  Those players such as hell whined and bitched all game like they cared.  JB was struttin like he cared when he thought he hit the game winner in OT.  

It wasn't til AFTER they lost that they decided they didn't care.  The game was meaningless.  Blah blah blah....

If the games were meaningless, they wouldn’t keep score. Suckers. 

12 hours ago, kg01 said:

Wrong!

The damage isn't that you profited off your deed.  The damage is destruction of the notion that the participants aren't participating in the wagering at all.

Sorry, but I just disagree. 
They’re both bad things to do that deserve punishment, but one is worse than the other. One altered the outcome of a game. 

Pete Rose gambled and was rightfully punished. But he didn’t alter games that we know of, & there is still a large contingency of people who believe he should be allowed back in MLB. 

Tim Donaghy altered NBA game outcomes, and no one wants him to be a part of the NBA at all. 
 

3 minutes ago, KB21 said:

What fluidity means is ease of movement.  The opposite of which is mechanical movement.  Zach Edey is very mechanical with his movement.  

I mean I guess that’s what I was thinking, but that doesn’t seem to coincide with Supes answers to the issues raised with Edey. 

I will say that Edey, like all draft prospects, isn’t a finished product so it isn’t fair to compare his clips from college to Gobert after he’s been in the league for years.

I don’t think he’s MVP caliber like Supes, but I do think he’ll be a positive contributor. Floor of 15 min/game player by year two, ceiling of a contributing starter.

I won’t be mad if the Hawks draft him, but I will be mad if they don’t draft any big (Missi, Clingan, Ware, Filip…).

6 hours ago, shakes said:

It's happening in baseball.  Only difference is Porter wasn't smart enough to have a fall guy like the Japanese guy did.

Technically that’s different. Ohtani made bets which is bad, but as of right now we have no idea if he bet on baseball. Or the fact that he owed millions to a bookie would suggest he did not take advantage on his bets with insider info or purposely swaying the outcomes. 

But Porter purposely altered his play on the court to hit expected (or unexpected?) betting outcomes, likely getting paid by someone to purposely tank. His actions more directly undermined the integrity of the game. 

6 hours ago, kg01 said:

If Edey was 25% as good as folks itt are saying he is, he wouldn't be a Boilermaker rn.

But the real question is wtf is a boilermaker? 

A boilermaker is when you drop a shot glass full of whisky into a full glass of beer. Chug and enjoy.