Hatertots

I'll take your word for it regarding defense, TSE, since honestly, I'm not sure how good a defender Chill is relative to Marvin. That's one of those things that's really hard to evaluate, but Chill generates more steals than Marvin, so that might factor in since players get burned when they come up empty on the steal. Josh does a lot of things a little better than Marvin at this point, rebounding, like you mentioned, he also commits fewer turnovers, fewer fouls, but the big difference between the two is in FG%, and there's such a value in hitting the shots that you take, especially on a team like the Hawks that rebounds poorly overall. Chill doesn't have any one aspect to his game that's amazing, or make any jaw-dropping, highlight reel type plays like Smoove, but his subtle contributions help win games. Over at 82games.com, they break down team performance by 5-man groups. All of the top Hawks groups, in terms of win% and point differential, feature the JJ-Smoove-Chill core. None of this is to take anything away from Marvin, however, so I don't want it to be taken that way. He's a really young player and he had the hand injury and there's a lot to like about him, I just want more to like about him. For the Hawks to make a playoff push this season, I think Marvin will have to step up and hit a higher % of his shots. He's more than capable and I think he'll make it happen.

Marvin really needs to find ways to contribute more to the Hawks in his third year. I don't expect him to be a world beater at his age, but given the number of minutes he gets, he'll need to play above average to justify that playing time, especially on a team with considerable front-court depth. Last season, Childress pretty much outplayed Marvin across the board, which I'm not too concerned about given that Josh is 3 years older, savvier, and a damn good player in his own right. Marvin doesn't need to have a better season than Chill necessarily,that's a lot to expect. With the addition of Horford, however, the gap must close significantly.

Hey, welcome to HS AJ. I recognize you from Sekou's blog. For whatever reason, Joe doesn't get the recognition that he deserves, so I think you're right that he won't be playing in the All-Star game this season. I do think he's gonna put up All-Star numbers, though, and that he'll play better than some of the guys who actually do make the ASG.

So they were wildly optimistic beyond all reason. What's so bad about that? It doesn't hurt anything. Just look at Chicago Cubs fans. They took Journey's "Don't Stop Believin'" and just ran with that one. And I'm sure they enjoy the experience that much more because of it. As far as credibility goes, internet forums just aren't the place to find that, even when (most often especially when) someone presents himself as a resident expert. It's like looking for deeper meaning in Britney's magnum opus "Hit Me Baby One More Time". We haven't seen Al play one minute of an NBA game yet, and if Oden can be Hakeem then sure, Al can be Boozer. Or hell, even Karl Malone. Dare to dream, Walter! Or don't. Everyone enjoys being a fan in their own way.

What exactly about Seano's post do you consider an ad hominem argument, Walter? He basically just said that fan opinions are pretty insubstantial. Nothing about that is a personal attack against you. And I think it's fair to say that anyone who expected Shelden to come out and play like Brand or Boozer his rookie season set themselves up for disappointment by placing unrealistic expectations on the guy. Considering he played limited minutes and was injured, I think Shelden acquitted himself well. Regardless, I fail to see how Shelden's (alleged) failures have any direct bearing on Horford. That's akin to saying "People said Vince Carter would be the next MJ, and he's not, therefore Kobe Bryant will also fail to live up to the hype." One factor has zero influence over the other. Or is what you're saying "These people made homeristic predictions for Shelden and now they're at it again with Al!"? Well, of course, man. We're fans, not GMs, team managers, or beat reporters; part of being a fan is being a homer. This happens for every team. If you check the Portland boards over at realgm, those guys expected Oden, like Moses, to part the Western Conference and carry them to the promised land his first season in the league having never seen the guy play one game. Had they, they would've noticed that he tends to pick up fouls like they're made out of money (they're noticing now, much to their chagrin). But that's the joy of being a fan, objectivity isn't required.

Perhaps that's why you feel that way, Diesel, but Final made it clear how he (forgive me for assuming you have XY chromosomes, Final) feels about it. Namely, the heightened expectations of acquiring an All NBA center followed by the mere drafting of a highly touted prospect.

Actually, I do think that you raise a good point here, and rather than list all the reasons why I agree, I'll just let this article say it all better than I could. Also, here's a cool list of all the win score stats for all players in the NBA, sorted by team.

Quote: Small sample size. Which sample size are you referring to, MrH? The sample size of that particular 5 man lineup? Admittedly, 113 minutes is a small sample but I don't think it's a stretch to say that when the Hawks, or any team for that matter, field their best players they maximize their chances of winning. And no matter which Hawks a person rates as 1st 2nd and 3rd best, a lineup of JJ/Chill/Smoove/MW/Pachulia probably includes them all (unless you're Candice Parker).

Yeah, that 5 man group also outproduced opposing 5 mans in 12 of the 18 games they ran it (total of 113 minutes floor time). It makes sense that if you replace one of our horribly non-productive guards (Lue, Claxton) with Childress, a very productive guard, the team is going to tend to play better. Looking at the list in total, the rotations that outperform their opponents and post a positive differential tend to feature the JJ-Chill-Smoove core. That core produced three of the highest point differentials (+54, +20, +18) and winning percentages (66%, 66%, 64%) and two of them featured Joe at the point and Childress at SG (the other had Claxton at PG). That core also was a part of two losing Hawks matrices, although very competitive ones, posting differentials of -7 and -6 and win% of 50% and 36%. In both cases, Lue manned the PG position. Which guard position maximizes Joe's strengths really isn't the issue in my opinion. It's safe to say he's a better SG than PG. Rather, the overwhelming point that these statistics drive home is that when the Hawks get Joe and the Joshes on the floor at the same time they win. Accomplishing that requires either that Joe plays PG or that Chill plays and Marvin sits. Injuries permitting hopefully they'll be running those guys out there a whole lot more often this season than they were able to last season, however they have to manage it.

I wouldn't be surprised if Yi ended up getting traded to GS for B. Wright (who the Bucks also liked) and a player/future pick.

A trade for Dwight/Amare/Gasol/Bynum would be fine by me but if we keep the picks: #3: Horford #11: Stuckey (Conley/Noah/B. Wright if one dropped)

I really wasn't sure what MFS was so I looked up the entry on wikipedia. While it's something to factor in, it doesn't seem like the procedure is quite the impending career death sentence that I've always assumed it is. Honestly this reminds me quite a lot of how people viewed Tommy John surgery for a long time until people started to notice that pitchers were consistently returning to their pre-surgery form. Quote: Microfracture surgery is an orthopedic surgical technique that can help restore knee cartilage by creating tiny fractures in the adjacent bones, causing new cartilage to develop. It can be used to treat both degenerative knee problems as well as cartilage injuries, and has gained a high profile in the sports world in recent years; numerous professional athletes including members of the NBA and NFL have undergone the procedure. The surgery is quick (taking around 30 minutes), minimally invasive, and has significantly shorter recovery times than an arthroplasty (knee replacement). Combined with a high rate of success, these factors have caused orthopedic surgeons to use the procedure with increasing frequency. The surgery was developed in the late 1980s and early 1990s by Dr. Richard Steadman of the Steadman-Hawkins clinic in Vail, Colorado. Steadman slowly refined the procedure through research (including tests on horses)[1]. After Steadman experienced success with the surgery, professional athletes started taking notice. Originally, the surgery was called "controversial" by many sportswriters, due to a lack of studies on the long-term effects and the fact that an unsuccessful surgery could end an athlete's career.[2] However, Steadman and other researchers have proven that compared to other treatments, the procedure is safe and effective, even in the long term.[3] Dr. Steadman has also adapted the surgery into a treatment to help reattach torn ligaments (a technique he calls the "healing response") that he successfully used on alpine skiier Bode Miller.[4] Possible applications in the hip and ankle joints have also been speculated on. The surgery is performed through an arthroscopy. The surgeon first removes any calcified cartilage. Tiny fractures are then created in the adjacent bones through the use of an awl. Blood and bone marrow (which contains stem cells) seep out of the fractures, creating a blood clot that releases cartilage-building cells. The microfractures are treated as an injury by the body, which is why the surgery results in new, replacement cartilage.[6] The procedure does have limitations, and is less effective in treating older patients, overweight patients, or cartilage damage that is larger than 2.5 cm. Current studies have shown a success rate of 75 to 80 percent among patients 45 years of age or younger, even among professional athletes.[3][5] With the help of physical therapy, patients can often return to sports (or other intense activities) in about 4 months. However, this is a best-case scenario and depends on the severity of the cartilage damage (and any other conditions existing in the knee). Normal patients and professional athletes who play at the highest level however are quite different, as Chris Webber, who underwent the surgery, has stated that a full recovery in 4 months is nearly impossible. Webber returned to the NBA eight months after his surgery but did not feel "like himself" until a few years later. There have been many notable professional athletes who have undergone the procedure. Partially because of the high level of stress placed on the knees by these athletes, the surgery is not a panacea and results have been mixed. Many players' careers effectively end despite the surgery. However, some players such as Jason Kidd and Zach Randolph have been able to return at or near their pre-surgery form. In October 2005, young star Amare Stoudemire of the NBA's Phoenix Suns underwent one of the highest-profile microfracture surgeries to date. He returned to the court in March 2006 and initially appeared to have made a full recovery, but subsequently started feeling stiffness in both knees (his right knee had been overcompensating for the injured left knee). He and the team doctor decided he needed more time to rehab and he did not return until the 2006-2007 NBA season.[8] During the 2006-2007 season, Stoudemire has returned to form, registering numbers comparable to his breakout 2004-05 campaign and playing in the 2007 NBA All-Star Game. His recent success has brought positive publicity to the procedure, further distancing it from a previous reputation as a possible "career death sentence" in the sports world.

The writeup on Williams at draftexpress paints an unflattering picture, to put it lightly. He had multiple marijuana related violations in his time at Boston College. That he smokes doesn't concern me at all, lots of people do. I'm sure plenty of athletes smoke too, just look at Calvin Johnson and Amobi Okoye in this past NFL draft. However, those two never failed any drug tests to my knowledge, and that's not surprising because they're both hard working and serious about their careers. But multiple failed drug tests indicates that Sean Williams really doesn't take basketball seriously and he just wants to do what he wants to do. Even if marijuana were legal, I imagine it would always be something with a guy who isn't dependable. And that's the problem with guys like this, you will never be able to count on them.

It would have a ripple effect on my brain as the bullet passed through it.

I drive a Toyota Celica. It's not quite an Enzo Ferrari, but it's very close.

Northcyde- Josh is inconsistent, just like every other young player in the league. Expecting a 21 year old guy to play lights out ball every night is expecting too much. And I wouldn't get too worked up about his poor numbers against the Spurs, since We Are All Witnesses to what San Antonio can do to even the most talented players in the league. I'm not too worried about Smoove. I find it very encouraging that he had a better 2nd half of the season. Marvin,however, is another story.

Quote: The Smoove fans are threatented by any guy who can possibly overshadow him in the frontcourt. And it's still not a given that Smoove has turned the corner as a player yet. We still have to see if this guy can put up at least 16 ppg - 8 rebs for an entire season, not just 1/2 of a season. No more "slow starts" for Smoove. It's put up or shut up time for him too, as well as for Marvin. If neither can play consistent basketball, we're going to need another guy like Horford to possibly take up the slack. Good news: Josh Smith played 72 games this season and averaged 16.4 and 8.6 for the whole season.

Measured in win score per minute (kinda like OPS for basketball). The win score formula is Pts + Reb + Stl + 1/2 Blk + 1/2 Ast - TO - 1/2 PF - FGA - 1/2 FTA. Divide by average minutes played to get the per minute average. Per minute averages across positions differ since C and PF tend to rack up more Reb and fewer TO and everyone else tends to do the opposite. The positional averages are: C- .225 PF- .215 SF- .152 SG- .128 PG- .132 Position adjusted (PA) is measured by player score minus the positional average. Positive is above average and negative is below average. PG Speedy Claxton- .0196 PA- -0.1124 SG Salim Stoudamire- .0364 PA- -0.0916 PG Royal Ivey- .0696 PA- -0.0624 PG Tyronn Lue- .0871 PA- -0.0449 C Lorenzen Wright- .1077 PA -0.1173 SF Marvin Williams- .1123 PA -0.0397 SG Joe Johnson- .1379 PA +0.0099 F Shelden Williams- .1449 PA -0.0701 FC Solomon Jones- .1646 PA -0.0504 C Zaza Pachulia- .2120 PA -0.0130 SF Josh Childress .2140 PA +0.0620 PF Josh Smith .2228 PA +0.0078 C Esteban Batista .3032 PA +0.0782 Only three Hawks played above average for their position last season, four if you want to count Batista, who played like a stud for 81 total minutes last year. Perhaps next year he'll get more minutes and blow everyone away with a "Where the hell did this guy come from!?" type season. But I'm not holding my breath. Both of Atlanta's big FA pickups from last year were total crapbombs. Lo produced the least after position adjustment and Speedy produced the second-least. The worst of the worst all tended to play the PG position, supporting the popular opinion that Atlanta PGs couldn't direct an elementary school play, let alone an NBA offense. 82games.com breaks down the best 5-man units per team, and the team with the best point differential and one of the highest win % sported J. Johnson- J. Childress- J. Smith - M. Williams- Z. Pachulia. Conspicuously absent are any of the underachieving PGs. Definitively, our point guards suck.

Quote: How good would Horford have looked without Noah or brewer or any of the other stars on that team. He was the best player on one of the best NCAA championship teams in recent memory. I'm guessing he still would've looked pretty damn good.

Hell yeah the pick should be Horford! He was more productive than any other player in the NCAA this year, including Oden and Durant (not saying he's a better player, just saying that statistically, he had a better season). I really hope we can pick up Conley, maybe move up from 11, but not at 3 and not with a player like Horford still on the board. The prospect of taking Yi just scares the hell out of me.

His numbers really surprised me. I assumed that all the PGs would rate out similarly since the popular opinion has been that the gap between any of them is much smaller than the gap between the bigs. And while it seems that the gap between the bigs is larger, the gap between Conley and Law doesn't seem to be small. So I guess in a way this shows us what we already knew: we can either take one of the best bigs or one of the best PGs, but probably not both. FWIW, Law scored higher than Deron did in his last year so you never know.

Let me start by admitting that I haven't checked these numbers for accuracy so don't read too much into them. But it is an interesting point of discussion. As measured by Win Score per minute, the most productive players in college were: (an explanation can be found at The Wages of Wins Journal ) Al Horford- .4233 Greg Oden- .4117 Kevin Durant- .4030 Joakim Noah- .3967 B. Wright- .3397 PG scores are as follows: Conley- .2335 Law IV- .1705 Crittenton- .1594 Average win scores per minute vary by position. The average win scores by position are: C- .225 PF- .215 SF- .152 SG- .128 PG- .132 With a score of .4233, Al Horford was the most productive player in college and outproduced the average C and PF scores of .225 and .215 by a wide margin. Oden and Durant were similarly well above average. By comparison, Spencer Hawes was pretty average at only .2307 As for the PG crop, with a score of .2335 Mike Conley Jr. easily outperforms every other PG in this group. In fact, he posted a higher win score per minute than did Deron Williams in his last year of college (.150) and came close to Chris Paul's last year score of .256.

This amazing JSmoove highlight reel or this outstanding JJ highlight reel?

Quote: Durant could easily be the bust that many here think Marvin is today becuase nobody wants to consider the fact that he's still a kid in both body and mind. Because of the 'combine'? Aren't we still talking about the kid who just shattered the NCAA scoring records for a freshman player? I think the NFL is responsible for this obsession with measurables. You see it in all our major sports now. A Hall of Fame pitcher like Maddux couldn't get drafted in today's MLB because at he's a 6' righty without a heater. 300+ wins later he looks like a no-brainer. Measurables are how you get guys like Robert Gallery who get by on their genetics and then wash out at the highest level because they don't have the skills they need to succeed. Durant may not have the strength to lift 185 lbs but he does have the skill to lift the ROY award a little under a year from now.

Quote: If we want a mega-star we have to take Yi Jianlian. This guy could beat Greg Oden to the all-star team. I'm sure he will; the guy's got a billion fans already.