lethalweapon3

“Hey, coach, I left you a gift over there. It’s a necktie!” All of our Atlanta Hawks have passed the final stage of the Bad Loss Protocol, and are cleared to participate in this evening’s matchup with the Chicago Bulls (8:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL; WGN in CHI) at Philips Arena. To be declared free from the acute effects of CTH (Chronic Traumatic Hawkaflopathy), each Hawk must achieve acceptable marks during the following diagnostic tests: No signs of derisiveness (like bellies sore from laughter) directed toward the teams ranked above them in the standings. Yes, the Cavaliers got their doors blown off at Golden State, the Raptors suffered The Wrath of Embiid, and the Celtics were knocked off by the same Knicks team that Atlanta edged in New York just days before. But that’s no reason to get smug, especially when there are desperate rivals, like the Pistons and Bulls, expecting to come out and play like their hair is on fire. No indications (like scraped palms and knees) that they’re fine with playing at, or below, the level of lesser-achieving competition. Squeaking past a New York team without Kristaps Porzingis, the Hawks waltzed into Detroit’s palace self-satisfied with their 9-1 run, especially with the knowledge that the opponent’s top perimeter scorer and wing defender, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, would be sitting out. Whether the Bulls’ leading rebounder, Taj Gibson (sore ankle, but probable), enters the proceedings today should be of no consequence whatsoever to Atlanta (24-18). No strained necks from constantly looking over their shoulders at what the Thursday Night punditry has to say, or neglects to say, about the team and its key contributors. As the Falcons can attest, if they’re waiting for the Heath Evanses of the world to come around, they have the wrong goals in mind. 42-18 is only a favorable score when the Falcons are winning at the Georgia Dome, not when the Hawks are helping the Pistons drub them in the first quarter. No sour dispositions from fretting over who got voted, or eventually makes it, into the All-Star Game. All the good people of Stankonia were insufficient to get Dwight Howard more fan votes than Turkey’s Ersan Ilyasova (thanks to fans a bit too sugar-high from Shirley Temple drinks). Meanwhile, human lunchpail Paul Millsap has lived a charmed All-Star existence for the past several seasons, and Kyle Korver received a mysterious late bump from Ohio (blame the voting machines, or the Russians) to pull ahead of Dennis Schröder. But dwelling on such petty affairs sets up the Hawks to get steamrolled by a highly worthy All-Star starter in Jimmy Butler (career-highs of 24.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 4.8 APG). This Butler is truly doing it, putting together a campaign that rivals, if not exceeds, the cherished MVP season of Derrick Rose from 2010-11. Jimmy Buckets is, at once, Chicago’s best hope as a clutch shooter and a defensive wing stopper. And Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg is, slowly, figuring out how best to utilize him. Everyone outside of West Madison Street could have anticipated that the Bulls, with free agents Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo sharing the starting backcourt, would struggle as a team shooting the ball accurately and getting stops. Indeed, the starters, inclusive of Butler, Gibson, and Robin Lopez, rank last in the league with a 47.4 eFG%. Even with backups included, the Bulls take the fewest threes (20.3 3FGAs per game, two fewer than 29th-ranked San Antonio), and make the fewest (31.7 3FG%, last in NBA). Chicago is saved from being dead-last in true-shooting (52.5 starter TS%, 29th in NBA) only due to the starters’ propensity for drawing shooting fouls (18.7 starter FTAs per game, 4th in NBA) and hitting them (80.6 starter FT%, 7th in NBA even with Rondo, who now sulks from the bench). Aside from Butler’s routine heroics of late, Chicago has been able to rely on second-chances (NBA-highs of 29.5 O-Reb%, 16.2 second-chance PPG, +4.8 net second-chance PPG) when opponents fail to box them out. Opposing guards, meanwhile, have had field days against the Bulls, averaging 40.7 field goals per 100 possessions (3rd-most in NBA). Similar to the Hawks, Chicago’s saving grace is that their opposing guards rarely earn trips to the free throw line (19.4 opponent FTAs per game, 2nd-fewest in NBA; Atlanta’s 19.7 ranks 3rd). The 99-98 loss to Dallas at the United Center on Tuesday was made possible by the Bulls’ inability to contain Deron Williams and J.J. Barea on drives, or to account for three-point shooters, like Seth Curry, or Wesley Matthews in the closing seconds. Replacing the erratic Rondo in the standard lineup (+1.9 net points per 100 possessions) with momentary Hawk Jerian Grant (+27.5 net points per-100), or the ball-dominant Wade and Gibson with Doug McDermott and Nikola Mirotic (+22.1 net points per-100), have been a boon for the Bulls’ offense. However, Hoiberg has turned lately to Michael Carter-Williams, who struggles like Rondo offensively but at least puts in some effort on defense, and German rookie Paul Zipser, who must be living off his preseason exploits, in place of Gibson. Atlanta can immunize themselves from Butler’s recent late-game dominance (10.0 4th-quarter PPG in January, 2nd in NBA) if they neutralize the things the Bulls do well, from the opening tip. That includes rebuffing Lopez on the offensive glass; denying Butler, Wade and MCW space to roam inside while depriving them of trips to the charity stripe, deflecting bailout passes and getting out to properly contest the few pseudo-reliable shooters Hoiberg trots out (Mirotic, McDermott, Denzel Valentine, Bobby Portis, and Isaiah Canaan). All of that requires overcoming the final symptom of onset "CTH": players with sore hands from sitting on them, waiting on their teammates to get on the floor and provide the necessary spark. As an example, the Hawks offset the brilliance of Butler (39 points, 4-for-9 3FGs, 7 assists, 6 steals) and Wade (25 points, 10-for-17 FGs, 5 steals) back on November 9 with a highly-balanced effort at Philips Arena. In that game, eight Atlanta players scored in double figures, including former Bull Thabo Sefolosha with a stunning 8-for-9 FGs off the bench. The team shot a collective 50.6% from the floor, including 45.0% on threes, while sinking 22 of their 27 free throws. Howard (18 points, 10 rebounds, incl. 6 O-Rebs) rendered Lopez’s board-crashing (one O-Reb) ineffective. Solid offensive starts, like the 35-27 opening quarter exhibited against Chicago in November, obviates the indignity of Millsap lobbing threes (1-for-5 3FGs @ DET) in futile efforts to diminish unnecessary blowout margins. Inspiring the Hawks to play their A-game from the tip shouldn’t be as hard as it seemed on Wednesday night in Auburn Hills. All it takes to avoid yet another unsettling bout of "CTH" is to find somebody on the coaching staff willing to “tell the truth”, before it's too late. Let’s Go Hawks! ~lw3 View full record

Just a hunch, without doing any "research", but I suspect this is the first time Berman At The Post voted for "Big Al" for anything. ~lw3

Hack-a-Dwight weighs into it, despite his vastly improved shooting. He gets free throw attempts on 26.4% of those post-up plays (3rd most in NBA, when using K-Will's criteria). Anything other than 2-for-2 from the line (0 points, 1 point) diminishes the PPP stat. Among D8's peers in this regard is Andre Drummond (0.73 PPP, to D8's 0.72; 28.5% of possessions are post-ups compared to Howard's 25.8%). Yet despite Drummond's notoriously poor FT%, few play Bang the Drummond Slowly with Andre, who draws free throw attempts on those plays just 9.9% of the time (again, compared to Dwight's 26.4%). Might it be a matter of Dwight holding the ball too long on those post-ups? That ranking isn't so bad when one whittles it down to the 24 bigs w/ 100 or more post-up plays. Dwight still ranks 23rd out of those 24 on PPP, but his 26.4% FT frequency really stands out among that cluster more than the 0.72 does. Also above-average is his 17.0 TO% on post-ups (5th out of 24), again a hint that Dwight may be playing less instinctively than the team needs on those plays. Last-place in PPP among that subset is Hassan Whiteside (0.68 PPP) who, as timing would have it, Alex Kennedy just tweet-praised as having "lived up to that big contract." Despite the lower scoring efficiency, Hassan posts-up with greater frequency (29.9%) than Dwight but, heck, what else is Miami gonna do... Also notable: among those 24 bigs, Paul Millsap ranks 2nd with a 1.02 PPP (behind Enes Kanter's 1.03). Sap is right behind Dwight in free throws earned when posting up (25.0% FT frequency, 2nd out of 24), but his TO% is about half Dwight's. http://stats.nba.com/players/post-up/#!?sort=PPP&dir=1&CF=Poss*GE*100&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular Season&PerMode=Totals ~lw3

Just noting that Day #10 on the first 10-day contract (assuming he's active today) will come on January 27, when the Hawks host his most recent team, the Wizards. ~lw3

B-More Careful! ~lw3

It’s never too early to take up a second career! The Atlanta Hawks are right near the top of the NBA… in one key category. The Bulls’ flop last night to Dallas dropped the Hawks into a tie with the Spurs (10-6), and 1.5 games behind the mighty Warriors (12-5), among the NBA’s best records versus teams at-or-above .500. Wins over Cleveland, the Spurs, Toronto, the Rockets, Pacers and Bucks, plus near-misses against the likes of the Celts and Warriors, suggest the Hawks (24-17) deserve the small cushion they’ve gained above the rest of the playoff pack, halfway through the NBA season. What has kept that first-round-homecourt margin from getting any larger has been Atlanta’s underwhelming record against the lower rungs of the league. Versus teams like tonight’s hosts, the Detroit Pistons (8:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, Fox Sports Detroit), only the Bulls’ record against sub-.500 teams is worse (among the East’s Top 11) than Atlanta’s 14-11. The good news is, the Hawks have not dropped a game to a team with a losing record since collapsing in Minnesota back on December 26, and five days before that to those same Wolves at Philips Arena. Beginning with December home victories over the (at the time, with a winning record) Knicks and Pistons, Atlanta has rattled off seven-straight against the league’s current lower tier. But as the Dwight Howard-less Hawks showed against the Porzingis-less Knicks in New York on Monday, the Hawks still have their work cut out for them before they can fully rebuild consumer confidence in their competitive product. Speaking of confidence, normally, a “vote of confidence” from a team owner is a dreaded sign of bad things to come. But Tom Gores’ thumbs-up for coach/exec Stan Van Gundy just feels different. “I have full confidence in Stan,” Gores told reporters at halftime of the Pistons’ 102-97 win over the Lakers at Staples Center on Sunday, Detroit bookending their 5-game West Coast road trip with victories. “We are having a hard time, and Stan and I are very real about that,” the Detroit Free Press reported Gores as saying, “but we also know that we have a great group of guys. We believe they’ll work through this. We’ve hit a bump in the road and that’s what success is about, you gotta work though it.” Detroit is carrying the third-highest salary load in the NBA, albeit due to past mistakes. They’re eighth in guaranteed salaries next season, and top-ten in guaranteed salaries for the three seasons after that. Yet, at 19-24, they stand at 10th in the East, last in the Central Division, and two games behind those 8th-seeded Bulls. Things were expected to trend upward with the arrival of star guard Reggie Jackson, but it has decidedly not been the case (8-14 since Jackson’s return). Conversely to Atlanta, the Pistons hold a 6-16 mark versus current break-even or winning teams, the last W coming at home against LeBron-less Cleveland back on December 26 (before that? The 121-85 blowout in Millsap-less Atlanta, way back on December 2). Despite the playoff push from just nine months ago, Piston fans don’t seem terribly enthused. Their average attendance at the cavernous suburban Palace of Auburn Hills ranks 28th out of 30 NBA teams. Yet, as it pertains to Stan Van’s status, file it under “What else are ya gonna do?” Gores knows that Van Gundy, who fumed throughout December as things went haywire, cares deeply about his team’s on-court effort. “This isn’t the YMCA, this is the NBA,” zinged Van Gundy to the Detroit News and reporters pregame, when asked about the team’s defensive intensity. “This is high-level basketball; you’ve got to play it hard, aggressive and smart. It’s not enough to say they’re trying hard.” Gores is willing to let the man who cut bait on Joe Dumars’ disastrous Josh Smith contract work through the back end of Smoove’s buyout, which concludes this season. The Pistons have a few walking-wounded struggling to play as well. Logging the most minutes-per-game on the team, guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (40.4 3FG%) strained a rotator cuff early in the Pistons’ blowout loss in Oakland last Thursday, and the 23-year-old ironman will miss his third-straight game. Mega-rebounder Andre Drummond (NBA-high 36.1 D-Reb%) and his frontcourt mates Jon Leuer (out) and Aron Baynes (active) are each dealing with varying knee maladies. Detroit’s adversities should bode well today for a rested Howard, assuming he gets plenty of post touches and runs the floor. Dwight matched Drummond’s 15 rebounds, in five fewer minutes, during the 105-98 win on December 30 that nudged the Hawks back above .500 for the season. There was a time, up until around 2011, when Howard shot 59-60 percent on free throws consistently. Now he’s trending upward again toward that area (65.4 FT% in last 15 games), making it tougher for opponents to defend him around the rim without giving buckets away. Having to defend Howard straight-up specifically makes it harder for Drummond (team-high 1.5 SPG) to toil as an eager help defender. Once defensive ace Paul Millsap (January: 13.4 second-half PPG, 1st among East PF/Cs; 52.2 second-half FG%) and Dennis Schröder (28 points, 13-for-16 FGs @ NYK on Monday) inevitably find their offensive grooves, and the pace picks up, it becomes harder for Jackson and Tobias Harris (combined 12-for-31 FGs @ ATL on Dec. 30) to keep up. Detroit is the league’s most reliable defensive rebounding team (80.0 D-Reb%). The wall-building Pistons are, somewhat amazingly, more adept at one-and-done whenever Drummond (79.2 team D-Reb% On-Court; 82.2% Off-Court) takes a breather. This suggests it’s crucial for the Hawks to execute well in setting up, and delivering, first shots during its possessions. Tim Hardaway, Jr. is 7-for-22 on field goals in two games this season versus his father’s current employer, going 2-for-8 (0-for-3 3FGs) back on December 30 as he watched Kyle Korver (22 points on 7-for-13 shooting) carry the day offensively. But he came alive once again in the fourth quarter on Monday to hold off the Knicks, 108-107, matching Schröder with 9 points in the final frame. He’ll find less defensive pressure on him with KCP out-of-action. Detroit has been cuddling, snuggling, and petting for well over 100 games. Yet there are finally signs their tireless work on their Hatchimal is paying off, as second-year forward Stanley Johnson may at last be breaking out of his offensive shell. SVG granted Johnson significant playing time in the past 3 games, and he has responded by going 5-for-9 on threes (26.4 3FG% prior 40 appearances) and tying a career-high with 6 assists in L.A. on Sunday. That’s not quite enough to make Stan Van a Stanley-stan. But with KCP still injured, Johnson’s the most reliable defensive wing the coach has in the stable, and he can help prop up the league’s best defense in transition off turnovers (NBA-low 13.1 points per 100 possessions off TOs). If he keeps this up, Johnson will push “KST” test subject Marcus Morris (41.2 FG%, lowest since rookie season) further down in Van Gundy’s rotation. Possibly sensing a flame under his butt, Mook put up a team-high 23 points (incl. 4-for-8 3FGs), playing in all but five minutes during Detroit’s win in Los Angeles. While not exceptional against the Knicks (12-for-32 team 3FGs), the Hawks’ three-point accuracy on Monday met-or-exceeded 37.5 3FG% for the seventh time in the past eight games (43.1 team 3FG% in January, 3rd in NBA behind the Spurs and Celtics’ 43.4%). Before January rolled around, Atlanta’s 32.6 3FG% ranked 29th. Even Kent Bazemore (42.4 3FG%) is showing signs of life… at least, beyond the arc (41.1 2FG%). With the ankle injury for Mike Muscala, Coach Mike Budenholzer was compelled to turn to Kris Humphries to relieve Millsap and Howard. Kris’ 3-for-3 triples and team-high seven boards in 24 minutes helped get Atlanta over the proverbial Hump in New York. Expanding contributions from Mike Scott, Mike Dunleavy, and Taurean Waller-Prince would also help improve flexibility for Coach Bud’s rotation of bench forwards, at least until Muskie returns. Schröder and the Hawks have benefitted from the improving play of backup guard Malcolm Delaney (last 9 games: 51.8 FG%, 4.6 APG, 1.9 TOs/game; 37.4 FG%, 2.6 APG before). The rookie currently ranks 5th among all NBA players (min. 15 minutes/game) with a 98.0 D-Rating, a value that was especially good (91.2 in October/November, 2nd in NBA) before the team’s November/December nosedive. While NBA.com stats are always sketchy in this area, his high rating suggests Delaney (5 assists and 2 steals @ NYK) and his teammates are doing something right. Another solid two-way effort by Delaney versus Pistons reserves Ish Smith (13 assists @ ATL in his last start on Dec. 2) and Beno Udrih could help the Hawks gain a decided advantage. Atlanta is 11-4, with just one loss (Boston) since November, when he collects four or more dimes in a game. Last month, it took consecutive home wins over the Knicks and Pistons to get Atlanta back on track. This time around, a two-game parlay would extend the Hawks’ road streak to six (most since the 12-game magic during December/January of 2014-15) and earn the team its 14th road win on the season, potentially tops in the Eastern Conference. Relying just a little more upon a player once self-identified as Superman could have the Hawks looking up, up, and away from the bottom half of the East. Let’s Go Hawks! ~lw3 View full record

~lw3

I agree, Bball-Ref's 11 herbs and spices meets the eye test far better than NBA.com's. If the former's ratings were more pliable (can they at least go out, like, one decimal everywhere other than just the leaderboards?) they'd be even more reliable. I'd rather that NBA just go with Bball-Ref's data assumptions and roll with it. Both sets, of course, depend on the defensive impact of the lineups a player's in, plus the offensive skillsets of the opponents (backups have been customarily worse on the defensive ends). So when it comes to major minute players (Millsap at one end, Isaiah way over on the other), both sites seem to get "ratings" relatively on-the-mark. But there's more noise in the NBA.com figures (perhaps due to their assumptions about what does/doesn't constitute a possession? I haven't cared enough to dig in). Thus, for the minor-minute players, guys like Delaney, All-Star Zaza, and Luke Babbitt look like DPOY nominees, when they're just more likely just tagging along better alongside Millsap/Thabo, KD/Draymond, Whiteside/Whoever (respectively) than their teammates are. Nothing in the per-game stats are eye-popping defensively about Malcolm's game (1 block all year, a steal every two or three games). But among his six top 5-Man combos, Kyle Korver (still love ya, Kyle) is in just one of them (as per B-R). Comparatively, Kyle figures prominently in 6 of Dennis' 8 top 5-Man lineups (in terms of minutes played). Also, Malcolm has been more effective playing alongside fellow bench man Moose (2-Man Net +7.1 points per-100 possessions, 400 minutes, as per B-R) than Schröder has been (2-Man Net -11.3 points per-100, 427 minutes). Same deal with Hump (+6.9, vs. -18.9), to a lesser extent. That's how it should work, with bench guys playing well together, but the discrepancy is wider than one would expect. Where Dennis' lineups have been more likely to pile up steals (thank you, Paul), Delaney's has been more effective on the opponent eFG% front (49.8% on-court, compared to Schröder lineups' 51.2%, as per B-R) and just creating turnovers overall (thank you, Thabo 'n Timmy). Opponents are also getting fouled and taking free throws far less when Delaney is in instead of Schröder. Individually, Delaney actually fouls more often than Dennis, but perhaps it's less of the shooting foul variety, plus whatever their teammates (like starters Dwight and Baze) are doing. Both guys get to that 109 D-Rating on Bball-Ref, but for variously different reasons. Turnover creation and opponent free throw production must figure more heavily into NBA.com's formula; that's because, despite Malcolm "leading" the team in D-Rating (cough), opponents on shots he's defending shoot 2.6 percentage points better than their season average (per The Dot Com). That's the worst mark on this team, among regulars (Dennis' defended opponents shoot 1.1 percentage points worse). This all goes to suggest that, whenever it comes to NBA.com's formula, it's much less about your individual activity than it is the company you keep. In closing: WELCOME, GARY NEAL! ~lw3

(EDIT: As @kg01 notes, the source of this rumor was the inexZach Lowe over at ESPN, so take it with a block of salt). ~lw3

Speaking of Delaney, Neal's a Baltimore native (also like Delaney; both played high school ball in nearby Towson) who started his pro career overseas (like Delaney, an All-Eurocup Team honoree) before getting The Spurs Way treatment. For however long he's here, he'll be imparting wisdom much in the way Hump does for his fellow Minnesotan Muskie. EDIT: Also, on the defensive side of things, using the NBA.com's recipe, Delaney leads all Eastern Conference players in Defensive Rating (min. 15 minutes per game & 20 games played). Dewayne Dedmon, Spurs - 95.3 Jonathan Simmons, Spurs - 96.8 Luc Mbah a Moute, Clippers - 97.6 Malcolm Delaney, HAWKS - 98.0 Andrew Bogut, Mavericks - 98.0 All-Star Zaza Pachulia, Warriors - 98.1 (Paul Millsap ranks 4th in the East, 99.9) ~lw3

I suspect Tiago changes his $110 tires about once a week, and has a house full of Papa John's discounted pizza boxes. ~lw3

Welcome home, Cenk Akyol! ~lw3

~lw3

Nique poking fun at Melo's help defense just before the half was also chuckle-worthy: "Hey, Dennis, how you doin'?" ~lw3

Meh... sure, why not? Does this mean Kris is finally over the Hump in Bud's rotation? We'll see! ~lw3

Just in the Knick of Time! ~lw3

~lw3

Any kind words are good words, Spud! I'm enjoying the ceremonies at Ebenezer at the moment, and may chime in more after the game. But I am appreciative of the spirit of service and camaraderie throughout this city and this country today, in remembrance of one of Atlanta's great sons. It's great to start out every year this way. ~lw3

The Mind of Mindaugas takes over for the injured Porzstar in the starting lineup. I guessed right about CLee's spot being in jeopardy, but Justin's eventual takeover will have to take another Holiday. ~lw3

I'm still waiting to see if Pastnerball is a mirage, but I'll happily take a mirage at this point! ~thwg

“Excuse me, sir? Hi! By chance, have you seen Derrick Rose anywhere around here?” The arc of the regular season is long, but it bends toward playoffs for the Atlanta Hawks. Aiming for their ninth victory in their past ten games, they swoop into Madison Square Garden on the observed MLK Day holiday to take on the New York Knicks (1:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, MSG Network in Gotham, NBATV everywhere else). At least, the ones that bother to show up. Whatever you do, don’t look down! The tier below the Hawks (23-17) in the Eastern Conference has morphed from a Crab Barrel to a Musical Chairs show. From 2.5-3.0 games below Atlanta, you’ll find five teams, including division rivals Washington and Charlotte, within a half-game of one another. If the East’s Top 4 hold firm, one of those playoff hopefuls will find themselves watching the postseason from home. Atlanta can stay above the fray if they continue pulling off wins on the road. A win today in Manhattan would move the Hawks into a tie with those annoying Celtics for the Eastern Conference lead, with 13 away-game victories. Below the “Musical Chairs” tier has formed the “Look Out, Here Come the Sixers” tier, and the Knicks (18-23) have taken up residence there. New York has lost ten of its last 12, including a 102-98 overtime defeat at Philips Arena back on December 28. They flew back home after getting waylaid in Toronto, the Raptors building up a 38-point third-quarter lead before letting off the gas pedal and winning 116-101. Derrick Rose going AWOL last week has taken over almost all the headlines (Mama Rose has relocated to NYC, so all’s well on that front). Following a hit-piece blog post from Phil Jackson ally Charley Rosen, Carmelo Anthony is offering hints that he’s willing to revisit his no-trade clause if the Zen Master (who has himself taken an odd vow of silence) wants him gone. And coach Jeff Hornacek is threatening to rearrange some more deck chairs on the Knicks’ ship. But an even more press-stopping issue for the Knicks is the problematic Achilles of the team’s future headliner. Kristaps Porzingis began feeling soreness during the Christmas Day loss to Boston. After struggling with his interior play in Atlanta (3-for-9 2FGs, 5 TOs on Dec. 28) and New Orleans, the lanky Latvian was held inactive for three games. Four games after that, his hampered mobility suffered a recurrence, and he was DNP’d in the Knicks’ past two contests. “They (the medical staff) want to make sure I’m good, 100 percent healed before I step on the court,” Porzingis said, as reported by the New York Post, “We don’t want this to happen again.” Allowing his heel more time to heal would be ideal. Unfortunately, the Unicorn’s replacement in the lineup, Lance Thomas, caught the business end of Jonas Valanciunas’ elbow yesterday, suffering an orbital bone fracture and concussion symptoms. Still, Porzingis will sit out today, making things even tougher for the Knicks up against Atlanta’s formidable frontline of Dwight Howard (17.0 PPG, 20.0 RPG, incl. 7.5 O-Rebs/game, vs. NYK this season) and Paul Millsap (Hawks-high 11 combined assists, zero TOs vs. NYK in 78 minutes). Joakim Noah (14 points and 16 boards @ ATL) is similarly soldiering on, despite a sore right shoulder (left-shoulder surgery ended his last season with the Bulls, around this same time). If Noah also cannot go, Hornacek will rely more heavily upon space-eater Kyle O’Quinn and up to four rookies: Mindaugas Kuzminskas, Maurice Ndour, Marshall Plumlee, and the turnover-prone Willy Hernangomez (NBA-high 54.3 FG% among rookies). No matter the combination, the Hawks’ bigs (without Mike Muscala, who is back home healing an injured hoof from Sunday’s game) are capable of exploiting a Knicks team that focuses on the offensive boards (4th in O-Reb%, largely due to ranking 27th in 2FG%) much more than the defensive ones (29th in D-Reb%). In Moose’s absence, coach Mike Budenholzer needs to look more toward not only Kris Humphries, but the underutilized Mike Scott. Both players will need to be present around the defensive glass to help limit the wayward-shooting Knicks to one-shot possessions. Anthony (42.6 FG%, lowest since his 2003-04 rookie season) will try to show he’s playing inspired ball on MLK Day in MSG. But the Knicks could use more than the one-dimensional offering provided by Melo yesterday afternoon: 18 points, one rebound, one assist, one block, one free throw. If only to showcase him to potential trade-deadline suitors (pending the clause waiver), Melo remains a lock in the starting lineup, no matter how bad things get. The more likely shakeup among the starters would involve supplanting Courtney Lee (2-for-9 FGs @ TOR on Sunday) with former Hawk Justin Holiday (17 points, 3-for-5 3FGs in 26 bench minutes @ TOR). Rose (45.2 FG%, best since his first All-Star season in 2009-10) is not only back in the locker room, but is trying to feign leadership by puppeteering his head coach. “I told (Hornacek) he has to be on us hard about defense,” Rose told the Post this weekend after practicing for the Toronto game. “Like, beat it in our heads where we get tired of hearing him talk about it.” While it’s nice for Rose to encourage his coach to find his inner Thibodeau, the point guard struggles to lead by example on the floor, and his primary backup Brandon Jennings isn’t doing any better. New York is surrendering the most points per game (108.3, 6th-worst in NBA) since 1988-89; the only Eastern Conference team allowing more resides one borough to the south. Ron Baker helped resuscitate the Knicks in the final quarter yesterday, and the rookie guard may be eating into both Rose’s and Jennings’ floor time in the near future. Nonetheless, Rose has returned, so now all that’s left is for Atlanta to figure out where Dennis Schröder’s game has gone. Dennis struggled in his last appearance at MSG (0-for-8 FGs, 3 assists in 21 minutes of the Hawks’ 104-94 loss on Nov. 20), but lit up the Knicks with 27 points on 11-for-21 FGs back home in December. Struggling mightily in the past two games (5-for-19 combined FGs, 9 assists, 6 TOs) after a solid road trip, Schröder could use a dominant performance today to shake off the cobwebs. With the Knicks’ injury-saddled frontcourt overly focused on the offensive side of the ball, Schröder should be able to break out in transition to break out of his slump. Hawks fans enjoyed a cameo appearance yesterday from Kent Bazemore, whose 24 points (4-for-7 3FGs) fell one short of his season-high. Baze’s confidence can remain high today if he’s focused defensively on the Knicks’ guards, and not switched onto lengthier forwards like Anthony and Kuzminskas. Expecting consistently-good performances out of Bazemore and the Force MDs – backup guard Malcolm Delaney (9 assists, 2 TOs in 26 minutes vs. MIL on Sunday), and newcomer sharpshooter Mike Dunleavy, Jr. (20 points, 4-for-5 3FGs vs. MIL) – may be a bit too much to ask at this stage. Thus, it’s crucial for Atlanta to get Schröder and former Knick Tim Hardaway, Jr. (0-for-3 3FGs vs. MIL; 0-for-7 FGs vs. NYK on Dec. 28) going strong from the outset. A solid first half from the Hawks’ starters and a spirited second half from the bench crew would go a long way toward keeping the Knicks (3-19 when losing after three quarters) submerged, and have their fans looking to find ways to enjoy the remainder of the holiday. For everyone on and off the floor, it’s a day on, not a day off. Have a Wonderful MLK Day! Let’s Go Hawks! ~lw3 View full record

CHOIR: "MIKE DUNLEEEEAVYYYYYYYYYYYY!" ~lw3

Nothing that serious, but he didn't help his cause this summer by seemingly tossing his former teammates under the (proverbial) bus while tooting his own horn. http://www.csnmidatlantic.com/washington-wizards/some-ex-wizards-teammates-will-take-exception-gary-neals-point-view ~lw3

“Oh, deer…” A Wisconsin team arrives in Atlanta, and loses on a Sunday in January. Hopefully, that will be the case not only once, but twice, this month, beginning with the Atlanta Hawks emerging victorious in this Sunday matinee with the Milwaukee Bucks (3:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL; Fox Sports Wisconsin in MKE). There remain plenty of close friends up and down Atlanta’s roster, but keeping one’s enemies closer continues to be a challenge for the Hawks (22-17). On Friday night, they fell behind to Boston by 15 points in the first quarter (before crawling back to tie in the second, down 4 at the half). Similarly, Atlanta slipped behind by 20 in the third quarter before knotting things up in a wild finish. Dennis Schröder struggled to control the tempo (third-lowest game pace this season for Atlanta), and Dwight Howard was unable to help the Hawks build a rebounding advantage (50.0 Reb% vs. BOS), setting the stage for the heroics to come from Isaiah Thomas in the final quarter. For a game that wound up excitingly even, Atlanta’s players and coaches placed themselves behind the 8-ball early and too often. It’s always tough to keep a team featuring Giannis Antetokounmpo at arm’s length. But the Hawks don’t want a repeat of their game in the Badger State back on December 9, when Atlanta fell behind by 20 at halftime and had to claw back to win, 114-110. The month before, here at Philips Arena, Atlanta (without Howard or Thabo Sefolosha) blitzed the Bucks with a bench-fueled 31-9 second-quarter advantage, and held an 18-point lead in the third quarter, but needed to hang on when Giannis (26 points, 15 rebounds, 7 assists @ ATL on Nov. 16) and Jabari Parker (25.0 PPG, 3.0 SPG vs. ATL this season) repeatedly brought Milwaukee back within a couple scores of the lead. A little less turbulence with be preferable today before the Hawks head north to meet the Knicks tomorrow. The steady presence in both contests versus Milwaukee was Paul Millsap (22.0 PPG, 61.5 FG%, 11.0 RPG, 1.5 TOs/game vs. MIL), who had his hands full keeping Giannis (5.0 TOs/game vs. ATL) and Parker in check. Keeping Milwaukee’s star forwards busy defensively should free up Dennis and Dwight for bounceback performances today. It’s likely Schröder won’t have to endure any Yo Mama snaps from Matthew Dellavedova today. Delly (37.2 FG%) has been known to grate on opponents on the court with his play more than his mouth, but has ceded his starting point guard spot to a rookie, Greater Atlanta Christian alum Malcolm Brogdon. Brogdon’s offensive poise has caught up with his assertiveness on defense, quickly gaining the confidence of coach Jason Kidd. As of now, the second-round draftee out of UVa is leading all rookies in Win Shares, scoring (9.2 PPG) and assists (6.3 APG as a starter, plus 14.0 PPG, 95.8 FT%, and 5.1 RPG) while committing just 1.5 turnovers per game. With Brogdon taking over at the point, the Bucks (20-18) have won 5 of their last 7, including a win in San Antonio without Giannis around in the clutch. Schröder must rely on pick-and-roll action to screen Brogdon out of plays and exploit Milwaukee’s shakier defenders, particularly Parker, ex-Hawk Jason Terry, swingmen Tony Snell and Mirza Teletovic, and foul magnets John Henson and Miles Plumlee. Malcolm Delaney (17 points and 6 assists, 1 TO) had a productive game versus Boston, and will again be challenged today to make Delly rely more on his shooting (7-for-21 FGs vs. ATL) than his distributive skills (8 assists in 18 bench minutes in the Bucks’ 116-108 win vs. MIA on Friday). The Bucks thrive on interior scoring (NBA-high 50.1 paint points per-48), meaning that Howard (23 minutes vs. BOS) must be active stemming Milwaukee’s offense without falling into early foul trouble. Dwight has not blocked 2 or more shots in a game since the Hawks beat the Bucks back on December 9. Burned repeatedly by Boston, Atlanta is the only NBA defense allowing over 50.0 eFG% on pick-and-roll ballhandler plays (51.6 opponent eFG%, 47.4 opponent FG%). But Dwight and Dennis will get a reprieve playing a Milwaukee team that applies these plays infrequently (12.8% of plays, 4th-fewest in NBA) and shoots just 42.1 eFG% (4th-lowest in NBA). In the battle of the Moose, Greg Monroe (10.8 PPG, Bucks’ only double-digit-average scorer aside from Giannis and Jabari) seeks to wear down the Hawks with post moves and mid-range shots. Also playing off the bench, Atlanta’s Mike Muscala, whose three-pointers helped the Hawks turn the tide in Milwaukee last month, must counter by stretching the floor on offense while getting stops and sparking transition with rebounds (five D-Rebs in 54 minutes vs. MIL) on defense. Tim Hardaway, Jr. struggled at the outset in Milwaukee in December, but just like on Friday, came through with big buckets in the final quarter, providing 20+ points for the third time in his past six games (58.3 3FG% in that span). If Atlanta does a better job of contending through the first three quarters, the wing combo of Sefolosha and Hardaway should be sufficient to help the home team pull through today. The Hawks (22-17) need to keep their distance from the Bucks (1.5 GB) in the standings, not on the floor. Stifling interior defense plus better closeouts along the perimeter should be enough for the Hawks to get the job done, and to discourage cheese-headed Wisconsinites from desiring a return to downtown Atlanta anytime soon. Let’s Go Hawks! ~lw3 View full record

"Frontrunner..." ~lw3