lethalweapon3

As I said, I try to stay clear of "people in the know up there" talking about people "down here." Works wonders! ~lw3

As a hard and fast rule, I try to steer clear of anyone eager to share insider information about somebody else's IQ/SAT scores/grades. Adds about fifteen years to your life, I hear. ~lw3

Congrats to Ty Corbin! And good luck filling those shoes! ~lw3

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Jerry-Sloan-retires-from-the-Utah-Jazz;_ylt=Avoyz8DKx8fW4S4pQDvUHhy8vLYF?urn=nba-319641 ~lw3

Slight correction: If it holds, the Hawks' current steals rate would be the 6th lowest of ALL TIME (or, at least since 1973-74, when they started keeping track of steals), not just the past six seasons. They are just a shade behind the 1991 Pistons (the Bad Boys' end run). The Nets will be easily breaking the record this year. Fewest Steals per Game, All-Time: Nets 2010-11* 5.21 Blazers 2007-08 5.55 Wolves 2004-05 5.61 Spurs 2008-09 5.78 Pistons 1990-91 5.94 HAWKS 2010-11* 5.94 Clippers 2000-01 5.98 Mavericks 2007-08 5.98 No other teams since at least 1974 have managed to snare less than six steals per game in a season. ~lw3

I ran out of "positives" already this morning, so I owe you one. ~lw3

There are some notorious pickpocket spots around this rough-and-tumble town, but it appears Atlanta's Finest can safely cut back on their resources in and around Philips Arena. That's because "theft by taking" in the arena is down considerably. Fewest Steals per Game: Nets 5.2 HAWKS 5.9 Magic 6.2 Suns 6.3 Bobcats 6.5 Hawks Steals per Game: 2006-07: 7.4 2007-08: 7.3 2008-09: 7.4 2009-10: 7.2 2010-11: 5.9 If it holds, the Hawks' current steals rate would be the 6th lowest by an NBA squad in at least the past six seasons. At the moment, the Hawks and Suns are the only NBA teams with no more than one regular rotation player contributing 1.0 steal or more per contest. Josh Smith represents the single Hawk contributing more than one steal per game (1.3, his lowest per-game rate since 2005-06). Behind him is Jamal Crawford (0.9, actually up on a per-minute basis compared to recent seasons), Al Horford (0.8), and Joe Johnson (0.7, lowest per-game since his rookie season and lowest per-minute in his career). On a per-minute basis, Jeff Teague leads the team with 1.7 per 40 minutes (down from 1.9 is his rookie season). Among players with at least 30 games and 10+ minutes per game, Teague's team-leading per-minute rate ranks 42ndin the NBA right now. Other players with noticeable drop-offs include Marvin Williams (0.7 steals per 40, down from 1.1 last year), Mo Evans (0.8 per 40, down from 1.0 last year, lowest since his rookie season), Zaza Pachulia (0.9 per 40, down from 1.4 last year, and a career-low 0.3 per game), and Mike Bibby (1.0 per 40, down from 1.2 last year, and a career-low 0.7 per game). The Hawks' opponents aren't exactly swooping in on the ball either: Fewest Opponents' Steals per Game: Bucks 6.0 Hornets 6.2 HAWKS 6.5 Pistons 6.6 Blazers 6.7 So, what's the deal with the drop-off in steals? Pace is about the same as in past years, so I don't think that's a factor. Is it the diminished reliance on help defenders? Modified defensive stance? Less full-court pressure? Collective passiveness? In the case of not getting the ball stolen from opponents, is it just good ball handling, or the low-pace approach? There seems to be a decent correlation between low-pace and low numbers of turnovers-by-steal. ~lw3

Should Hendu make that list? (I meant Alan, not Cedric). I'm just being picky. ~lw3

ah, sure, feel free! I was in "fume-now, edit-later" mode yesterday, so if anything's not quite accurate, you can edit at will. ~lw3

That loss margin among the 8 home game defeats so far is -16.8 (88.5 - 105.3). I don't have time to compare with everyone in the league, but just looking at the sad-sack Cavs, their differential in 17 home game defeats is -11.0 (94.8-105.8). Time to get my flog on... There are some NBA organizations who can endure a handful of blowout losses, even at home, or perhaps on the road before a national audience. The Atlanta Hawks are not one of those teams. This is the sole returning NBA playoff team that is NOT among the top 20 in home percentage attendance. The team whose relative ranking among NBA clubs for attendance has slid to 25th (down from 18th) after slowly climbing every year since 2006. This is the team with multiple All-Stars and Almost-Stars that, individually, can not fill any tier of seating in an arena, at least not anymore. Blake's 19-32 Clippers, Nash's 24-25 Suns, and Amar'e's 26-24 Knicks are bigger draws in this town than the 33-19 Hawks. This is a team who brands its arena as The Highlight Factory, whose leading scorer's "highlights" generally involve teardrops and turnarounds in traffic, whose flashiest player, now seven years removed from a Slam Dunk title, has become enamored with 20-foot jumpshots. This is a team almost one year removed from playoff blowout performances so epically bad that they eclipsed their prior year's second-round drubbings, and the road playoff drubbings from the year before that. This is the team that, when forced to discuss them solely because of their relative record, provokes faces on national media members worthy of laxative commercials. "C'mon, do we have to talk about the Hawks? Really?" This is a team whose dispirited ownership only seems to make headlines when they further entomb themselves in lawsuits and inertia. This is a team that strings along a flawed head coach on cheap contracts, and lets him go only to promote the assistant sitting next to him for even less money. When he was promoted, and when the so-called 'core' was brought back in its entirety, this was all presented under a Kool-Aid sale suggesting, with new systems and philosophies in place, blowout basketball and mail-it-in efforts would be mere notions of the past. This is the team that is the only American pro franchise (MLB-NFL-NHL-NBA) around for at least the last 40 years that has not given its fans a conference final in the past four decades. Altogether, it takes an awful lot of trust to get thousands of people to stop in on a lousy-weather mid-week night to see the Atlanta Hawks. When a low-profile team like Philly (or New Orleans. or Milwaukee) comes in, and their first-quarter scoring equals the Hawks' effort for the entire first half, that's hundreds more people who have made a mental note never to darken Philips Arena's door again. Other teams can shrug this off. Not this one. Without splashy maneuvers, high-profile players, and risk-taking management, this is a team that needs to build consumer confidence, rather than erode it, one game at a time. ~lw3

http://www.hawksquawk.net/community/index.php/topic/355512-trade-out/ Didn't quite go as far as you, but agree that at least for this year we should use our draft pick either to add lower-tier veteran bench depth or in a package for something bigger. ~lw3

Pencils down... the teams were listed in order, from "pretty bad" to "OMFG..." Kings - 9.3 (95.1 - 104.4) (36 losses) Clippers -10.4 (94.4 - 104.8) (32 losses) Bobcats -10.7 (88.1 - 98.8) (29 losses) Pacers -10.8 (93.1 - 103.9) (28 losses) Wolves -11.0 (101.3-112.3) (39 losses) Pistons -11.6 (89.9-101.5) (33 losses) Nets -11.6 (89.4-101.0) (37 losses) Warriors -11.8 (98.2-110.0) (28 losses) Raptors -11.8 (95.4-107.2) (38 losses) Wizards -12.0 (94.2-106.2) (37 losses) HAWKS -13.1 (88.4-101.5) (19 losses) And the only two teams doing worse so far... Jazz -13.2 (91.3-104.5) (22 losses; includes the Hawks' beatdown in SLC) Cavaliers -14.4 (93.1-107.5) (44 losses) Fewest PPG in losses: 1. Bucks 86.3 (Opp 96.0) 2. Celtics 87.4 (Opp 93.4) 3. Bobcats 88.1 (Opp 98.8) 4. HAWKS 88.4 (Opp 101.5) 5. Mavericks 88.9 (Opp 97.3) More soapbox-grandstanding from me on this in a bit. ~lw3 This looks only at the losses, not the victories. ~lw3

The T'Wolves' losses are by a mere 11.0 points per game, compared to our "mystery team" (cough), which has been losing by 13.1 points per game in its defeats. ~lw3

The Comic Sans Crew has got the league lead, but there's a particular team that's gaining on them and the Jazz (about 1.3 points behind the Cavs, 0.1 behind the Jazz). Can you guess who it is? :-) ~lw3

LOL ~lw3

It's like Parent Meddling Month around here (The Drews, Tito... who's next?) ~lw3

Quiz Question: Which one, among the following teams, currently has a larger LOSING MARGIN (points differential) in games LOST? (i.e., Which of these teams is losing by more points per game?) Kings Clippers Bobcats Pacers Wolves Pistons Nets Warriors Raptors Wizards Hawks ~lw3

Backing up "makes", the Hawks are also 18-1 when they make 20 or more free throws per game, 15-18 when they don't. Yet you can't make what you don't try. And unless you're routinely playing against Stephen Jackson and Sheed and guys who can't get out of the paint in less than 3 seconds, you're not trying unless you draw fouls. The Hawks starting frontcourt, relative to other NBA teams, is not doing so. Unless teams are playing significantly different numbers of overtime games, whether it's per-game or per-minute, next-to-last in the league is next-to-last in the league. And in these specific stats for this particular team, specific threshholds establish a significantly different result in terms of the likelihood of winning. Are there any other splits where the difference in winning games for this team is more stark? Thankfully, because they have above-average shooting (7th in the NBA), free throws made per game have them ranked 27th, instead of last or next-to-last. But when they don't get to the line enough, they are turning likely victories into crapshoots. All that blathering said, showing per-minute stats at the player level, whether for makes or attempts, makes the paucity of play calls leading to fouls from our starting centers and power forwards all the more evident. (Hawks' FTMper36/FTAper36) JamalCrawford (4.3/5.0) Thomas (4.1/5.1) Pachulia (3.7/5.1) Johnson (3.3/4.1) Smith (3.1/4.2) Williams (2.9/3.5) Teague (2.5/3.2) Wilkins (2.4/3.3) Horford (2.2/2.7) Powell (2.0/2.5) Collins (1.6/2.6) Evans (1.0/1.1) JordanCrawford (0.9/1.4) Bibby (0.7/1.0) I haven't looked, but are there other teams (Houston?) where five or six bench players are more likely to attempt (and make) free throws than the starting center (Horford/Collins)? Where the sixth-man GUARD is virtually twice as likely to take (and make) such shots as the starting center? Maybe it's not the novelty I see it to be, but when this happens, thank goodness the starter is shooting a pretty good FG%, or the team could be in big trouble every night. One can look at those numbers and say we need to give the guys like Etan and Zaza a greater share of minutes ("ick!"). Instead of that, if I'm looking at those numbers I'm wondering what plays are most likely to result in whistles for our frontcourt starters... and how to mix those plays in more often. Horford followed my figurative suggestion, and nearly "died trying" on the last play he was on the floor. Thankfully, the final two of the team's measly 13 attempts secured a close crapshoot victory. But it seems many of these games wouldn't have to come down to kamikaze plays in the end if they just approach their offense differently from the start. ~lw3

FTA/G Crawford 4.3 Smith 4.1 Johnson 4.1 Williams 2.9 Horford 2.7 Pachulia 2.0 ~lw3

**Quiz Question: Which player currently leads the Hawks in Free Throw Attempts per Game? a. Al Horford, starting C-PF b. Josh Smith, starting PF-SF c. Joe Johnson, leading scorer d. Jamal Crawford, backup guard **Metrics Revisited: The Hawks are now next to last in the league (29th) in Free Throw Attempts (21.9) and Fouls Drawn (19.2). Good news is the Hawks are still dominant when taking >25 Free Throws (16-1; 17-18 otherwise) and when getting fouled more than 20 times (19-2; 14-17 otherwise). The bad news is this is 20 days later -- of the nine games played in that span, the Hawks exceeded 25 Free Throws once, and 20 Drawn Fouls twice. **Metrics Split (Free Throw Attempts per Game; Opponents' Personal Fouls per Game)... October (3 games) (30.7; 24.0) November (15 games) (21.5; 18.9) December (17 games) (21.4; 19.1) January (13 games) (22.3; 19.3) February (4 games) (18.0; 16.8) Wins (33 games) (23.8; 20.3) Losses (19 games) (18.7; 17.3) ~lw3

Is Tito available? ~lw3

Either way, when it comes to coaching staffs, we are still getting what we (don't) pay for. ~lw3

No Horford again tonight, FWIW. Start Zaza again? http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasybasketball/players/playerpage/1231877/al-horford ~lw3

Thank you, teke, for puttin up with us. ~lw3