niremetal

2 minutes ago, Diesel said:

I would rather have Dunn than what we can trade him for. 

He's still a top defensive player.   He can guard the perimeter. 

I agree with you. 

But I also agree with @sturt that it sounded to me like Schlenk had already made up his mind that Dunn isn't the answer. And Kirschner saying "don't be surprised if Dunn is moved by {checks watch} today" probably confirms that. Schlenk also wouldn't have made that sort of decision without consulting his new head coach, so it probably means that means that McMillan doesn't think he's the answer either.

No matter how much I wish we could see what Dunn can give us when he's fully healthy, it seems pretty certain that he's just not in the Hawks' plans for this year.

1 hour ago, sturt said:

 

Hm. Looking through the possibilities. We'd either have to trade him to (1) a team with cap room; (2) a team with a trade exception; (3) a team that would actually want him more than a comparably-paid player who we would want more than Dunn; or (4) as part of a bigger package.

I don't think (4) is happening before draft day. I'm in the camp that thinks a consolidation trade is more likely to happen near the trade deadline, after we've had a chance to see Hunter's health and Cam's development a bit more.

I don't think (3) applies--our biggest need is backup PG. If there were a better PG out there who made about the same as Dunn, why would the other team want to give him up for Dunn, unless the teams have dramatically different assessment of the players' respective value?

For (2)...if I'm not mistaken, the only team with a trade exception big enough to absorb Dunn is the Thunder. Dunn would actually make a lot of sense there...the Thunder don't actually have a true PG on the roster right now, and I think Dunn would pair nicely as a backup and occasional mate to SGA.

For (1), there are several teams projected to have cap room that might make sense as destinations for Dunn. I'd rank them:

1. OKC (see above)
2. Toronto (takes the pressure off them to bring back Lowry)
3. Dallas (he'd be an intriguing-but-risky fit with Luka)
4. San Antonio (Dunn seems like a player Pop would do well with, but he might prefer to stick with Patty Mills as Murray's vet backup)
5. Charlotte (similar to Dallas, he'd be an interesting pair with LaMelo, but they might prefer to bring back Graham)
6. Miami (defense is not their area of need)
7. Memphis (they're set at PG)
8. New York (they make sense on paper, but Thibs ruined Dunn's rookie year)

I should give the disclaimer that I always suck at predicting how roster moves will shake out, tho.

45 minutes ago, Diesel said:

In terms of direction of the team, you can't be happy with just here and now.   You have to think about the future too.   I suggest getting Mobley as a future replacement of Clint.  OO as a replacement of JC.   Hunter and Trae will be the future.  I'm for running it back this season but at the same time, I think that where there's an opportunity to create a better future existing, (especially at a small cost), we should look into it. 

Both sides would say no to that deal, I think.

Just as important from our perspective, the fact that Hunter ended up needing two surgeries on the same knee is worrisome. Until he can stay healthy and play a full season at the level he did in the first month of last season, I don't think we can count on him being a cornerstone. That makes seeing if Cam is ready to take the next step all the more important, because long wings who can stretch the floor and defend 4 positions don't come along every day.

25 minutes ago, JTB said:

In other words IF Beal did end up in Atlanta I wouldn’t be worried about fit….I know Trae and Beal will figure it out offensively. Last, as far as talent goes Beal is a better scorer than Bogi and there no comparison when it comes to just flat out getting buckets between these two. Beal can give you 30 on any given night and sometimes when you have an opportunity to add a 30 pt scorer with a star already on your team who can go and drop 30 and 10 on any night …..shit you have to look at it and atleast consider it.

First, thanks for the shout-out!

Second, I'm pretty sure the Wizards thought Beal and Westbrook would figure it out too. But their offense ended up being wildly inconsistent (ended the year #17 in offensive efficiency). And impressionistically, Westbrook's size, rebounding ability, and years of experience being the #2 option should have made him easier to fit with Beal than Trae would be. I think they'd be a terrible fit, and would utterly destroy the chemistry that made the current team click.

And that's just on the offensive end...

4 hours ago, SCOTT said:

My gut tells me we are trading Kevin Huerter during the draft Thursday night. I think we will keep Cam to see how he develops under Nate next season.

Possible, but strikes me as unlikely. The draft just doesn't feel like a pivot point for trading him.

Right now, K'Von is producing and projecting at a level you would hope/expect from a guy drafted in the mid-to-late lottery (#7-12 overall). He doesn't seem to have star-level upside, which dings his value a bit down from that, I think, but he has a solid floor. But if he was going to be traded for a draft pick (whether alone or as part of a package), I think we would only expect him to be moved if we were getting a late lottery pick in return where Travis could take someone he was high on. But there are no teams in that range of this draft who seem like they'd be a good fit for him (he's not a guy that a rebuilding team will want since his contract goes up next year), and also I don't think there are any players expected to go in that range who the Hawks have worked out.

My guess is we make Huerter an offer a little bit less than what we are paying Bogi, Huerter will turn it down, and we'll move him at the deadline unless it looks like we're gearing up for a serious title run in the playoffs.

9 hours ago, RandomFan said:

I've been banging this drum for a while now, mostly falling on deaf ears. Not only Bogi, but Huerter as well. 

This is one of the big reasons I don't see backup PG as big of a need as most around here seem to think. 

Maybe draft a PG that can develop and be ready to fill a role once one of our 4 wings has to move on for salary reasons in a year or two. 

Other than that, Bogi and Kevin are fine serving as the initiators of the offense when Trae rests.

Great point--it doesn't have to be Bogi exclusively, but a Bogi/Huerter two-headed monster. I just don't see realistic choices at backup PG that could take on the bulk of that role better than they could, especially if we have Dunn and Mays around situationally.

2 hours ago, Diesel said:

I know it's the extreme case.... but after watching Holliday Hound our guards... and Phoenix's... it becomes important that you have a "real" PG in the game.  In the final game, Holliday destroyed Book (5 turnovers) because that's what he does against non PGs...  He's not the only defender like that in the NBA.   Like you said.. Spot Duty... but it would be good to have a guy who is used to the pressure of pressure defenses. 

I mean, that's not just an extreme case, because I'm not suggesting that we run with Bogi as our main PG. I'm suggesting using him as our primary initiator during times when Trae's off the floor--i.e., with the second unit. Ordinarily, our second unit will not be on the court much (if at all) with the opposing team's first unit. So you're not gonna have Holiday on the court much (if at all) during the times when Bogi would be initiating. Same with any other elite perimeter defender.

I still think folks are kind of overestimating the capabilities of what we can get from a backup PG that we can sign for the MLE. You're not going to get someone that Holiday can't shut down. You're not going to get someone who is a complete, reliable PG at all. Because those guys are rare enough that they aren't going to take a 10-12 minute per game role with the Hawks, when teams like the Lakers, Clippers, etc, can offer them either a starting role or a featured reserve role. Also, if we use the full MLE on a single backup PG, that leaves us with just the minimum and maybe the BAE (assuming we don't use any cap space) to find a backup C--and if we spend less than the full MLE, we'll be able to get even less.

So sure, sign the best PG we can given our need to shore up our big man rotation. I still don't think that'll be someone who actually could be a better playmaker for the second unit than Bogi 

2 hours ago, AHF said:

Why do you guys think the offense cratered so badly when Trae was off the floor?  (Don't mistake my tone here - this is an open question not intended as a "come on" response.)  I would get it if we went from an elite offense to a more average one with him off.  But for most of the last 3 years we have gone from one of the very best to one of the very worst.  It seemed like that dynamic was in play this season when we averaged 122 points per 48 minutes with Trae on the floor and then fell 12.8 points when he stepped off. 

Seemed to get much better once we traded Rondo for Lou and there were plenty of games where Rondo wasn't available before then for Huerter and Bogi to run things.  I expect we will fall off some without Trae because he is an MVP talent but I don't see us as being adequate right now without him and that is why I still prioritize backup PG.  

It looks like there weren't any 5-man rotations last year that played more than 26 minutes where Bogi was on the floor without one of the three guys whose primary position was PG (Trae, Lou, Goody). So I don't think it was ever really tried, Rondo's injuries notwithstanding.

I'm relatively new in my Hawksquawk comeback tour, so apologies if this is a topic that's been raised before. But it seems to me that the Hawks have a pretty obvious choice at backup PG on the roster already: Bogdan Bogdanovic.

Nate figured out PDQ after the Hawks dropped game 2 against the Knicks that Bogi was our second-best playmaker, even with Lou on the floor too. From that point on (or at least until the games Trae missed vs MIL), I think he was nearly always on the floor when Trae was not. He's not lightning-quick as a PG, but some of the best PGs in history (like Nash) had subpar foot speed--and they could especially get away with it if they were bigger than the average PG (e.g., Magic, proto-point-forward Rick Barry, etc). That's not even counting the increasing number of big men who have become the primary distributors in their team offenses in recent years. The important thing is the ability to dribble, pass, and shoot, all of which Bogi can do very, very well.

This is the best take I've seen that describes Bogi's playmaking ability:

Quote

What separates Bogdanovic from other shooters is that he has more to his game. Bogdanovic is not a devastating athlete but he’s a craftier ball-handler than the majority of players who are categorized as volume shooters. This makes him a plus playmaker, which is really what makes him such value on his contract. Atlanta runs most of their offense through Trae, but Bogdanovic is capable of creating looks on the inside and continuing possessions off the catch and off the dribble. Per Cleaning the Glass, he ranked in the 90th percentile in assist percentage, the 84th percentile in assist to turnover ratio, and the 85th percentile in turnover percentage which in particular was a drastic improvement on what we saw in Sacramento. His playmaking went to the next level in Atlanta.

https://premiumhoops.org/2021/06/06/bogdan-bogdanovics-two-way-mastery-in-the-atlanta-hawks-first-round-series/

Even if his efficiency as a playmaker drops a bit as volume goes up, do we really think that there is someone who'll be available in the draft or in free agency that will be able to improve on what Bogi could do in that role?

It also strikes me that having a lineup like Bogi-Huerter-Cam-Gallo-Okongwu* on the floor when Trae rests would opposing second units matchup nightmares that would more than outweigh whatever small edge we might get from having a traditional/quicker PG that we could get using the MLE or at #20 in the draft. Defensively, Cam can stay in front of the opposing PG. Heck, so can Huerter in most games. We can have an "alternate" backup PG (Mays, maybe?) who can slot in when the opposing second-unit backcourt has two exceptionally quick players.

(* ...or whoever we sign to serve as backup C in his place for the first 50ish games of the year while Okongwu rehabs)

Having 2-guards double as the backup PG has worked well before. The two that come to mind immediately for me are JJ, who was very effective as backup PG for Nash back in '04-'05, and CJ McCollum, who has effectively been Lillard's backup in Portland for most of the past 5+ years.

The main argument that I can think of against this would be simply familiarity and rhythm. Bogi has never been asked to serve as the de facto point guard for an NBA team, and he has thrived (as in, been one of the most efficient players in the whole league) in his role as a wing alongside Trae. But given how much we've struggled to find a backup for Trae, I think at least a test run of having Bogi play the point for the second unit is worth a try.

Thoughts?

6 hours ago, AHF said:

The match gets fuzzy but I think 7 people have voted and all 7 voted for him in the top 15.  1 in the top 5, 4 in the top 10 and 2 in the top 15.  

The reason it is confusing is that you can vote for 5 people per tier so if you were voting on top 5 players and you were the first person to vote and you voted for LeBron and 4 others then it would show up as 20% for LeBron since 5 votes were cast in that tier and 1 was for him despite the fact that 100% of people voted for LeBron.

Aaahhh I see that now. I was gonna be giving everyone around here side-eye

Thanks!

I'm seriously in disbelief that so far, fewer than 20% of people have Dame in even the Top 15.

1 hour ago, TheBigETrain said:

Agree with adding a veteran center but don't think Dwight is the answer. I think this may mean that Collins re-signing is more of a priority and Hawks have to up their offer.

That was my first instinct too. But ultimately, I don't think the Hawks can make a 9-figure / 4-5 year decision based on 30 games of availability for a backup big. Especially because right now, O is really Clint's backup, not John's. And it's gonna be that way until O can stretch the floor (which I believe is coming, but not this next season).

Like Supes said...free agency it is. Unless Knight absolutely busts out defensively in Summer League and earns a regular season audition. I'd like to think there's a fair chance of that because Knight has to realize this is maybe his best chance to land even a temporary rotation role on a NBA team. But that's probably wishful thinking.

Dedmon seems like a good vet min flyer, although NGL, I'm not up on who else might be a good fit in that regard.

6 hours ago, Diesel said:

All those Minny Rumors put together leads to:

 

Clint, Gallo, Hunter, and 2 1st rounders for KAT and Rubio....

 

We get the more active offensive piece in KAT.. we get the BU PG in Rubio.   They get Younger and more defensive.  We resign JC. 

If we did that:

Trae, Rubio, Dunn

Huerter, Red

Bogi, Solo, X

JC, OO

KAT, Bruno, Knight

Our immediate need becomes at the Wing.  I would say defensive stopper. 

I just wonder.. how would KAT fare against the Embiids and the Giannis'...

 

 

JC's skill set is too redundant of KAT's to justify having both. If we do this deal, there needs to be a corresponding S&T of JC where we at least get a poor man's Hunter back--someone who can score and defend both forward positions. Since that's not happening...no thanks.

5 hours ago, NBASupes said:

If Atlanta wants to take a shot in the dark at Culver, use Dunn for that, not an impact player like Gallo. He got a -0.8 WAR and a -0.4 WAR and saw his time cut in half like Bruno. No beuno! 

Agreed. People underrate Gallo's impact. He's had 3 straight years with a >61% TS%. The fact that he's a 6'10 dude who is an efficient scorer out to 30+ feet is extremely valuable in clutch situations and the playoffs, as he proved several times this past season.

I moved out to the Portland area about 7 years ago and, once Tim Duncan hung up his sneakers, the Blazers became my adopted #2 team. It's kind of crazy being in a position for the first time since I've been here (yes, including 2014-15) that the Hawks are clearly closer to a title than my new hometown team is.

I don't think people get just how freaking good Damian Lillard is. Everyone *thinks* they know. But you really have to watch him night-in and night-out to get the full picture. I would argue that he is *the* best guard in the NBA, and has been for at least 6-7 years. I think he's one of the 5 best players in the league, along with Giannis, LeBron, Kawhi, and Curry (due respect to Jokic). And I genuinely think he's a better player than Curry--which is in no way a knock on Curry, who I think is himself a generational talent. But put Dame on the Warriors instead of Curry, and I think the Warriors would have won 5 straight titles starting in 2015, and contended even over the past 2 years.

Unfortunately, the Blazers blew the best years of Dame's career by failing to surround him with a modicum of talent, at least after Aldridge left (which Dame and Aldridge both now realize was a mistake). It was very clear that McCollum and Nurkic were nowhere near enough as secondary pieces for the Blazers to contend, but the team refused to make moves while they still had assets to do so.

Now things are about to go very south for the Blazers very quickly. Dame wants to win now, and the Blazers just don't have the assets needed to retool and put the supporting cast around him needed to contend. They have no cap space. They traded two firsts to get Robert Covington (a good player, but not worth two firsts). Their only viable trade assets are Nurkic, Anfernee Simons, and maybe CJ McCollum ("maybe" because he has 3 years and over $90M left on his contract). None of those guys are going to bring back a truly elite star talent.

Their best hope is that the Sixers will bite on a trade centered on McCollum for Simmons. If the Blazers could pull that off without having to sacrifice Simons, there's at least a modicum of a chance that improvement from Simmons and growth by Simons will vault the team up to title contention. I doubt the Sixers would be seriously interested in that trade, but I can't see any *more* likely trades that the Blazers could pull off. Which probably means they are screwed.

It sucks to see the Blazers squander the prime of the best player to ever put on a Rip City jersey. But I think we might see a Blazers firesale sooner than people realize. (If so, I think the Hawks should take a look at trying to nab Nurkic)

Can

5 hours ago, Alex said:

I went with Jokic as well.  Can dominate a game by not scoring a ton.  Having him and Trae facilitate things would be amazing to see.

Yup. Needs to be a guy whose USG% isn't sky-high if we want them to play alongside Trae. That really leaves Jokic, Davis, and maybe Durant. Of those, Jokic is the one whose game best complements the other pieces we could conceivably keep around along with Trae.

1 hour ago, bleachkit said:

Onyeka is American born. Very few, if any, American born Nigerians hold tribal grudges against other Nigerians. Do you think this is an issue for team Team Nigeria? I think not. 

I straight-out said it's probably not an issue. But it's far from unheard of. I'll stop there.

5 hours ago, sturt said:

To no one in particular...

 

Why does is it so typical recently that media fail to comprehend that the Hawks have $8m in cap space (just short of the MLE) that they can use ahead of signing JC (... and $13m if for some reason Dunn opts out)?

 

As I understand it, since the projected cap next year is $112M, it's closer to $4-5M after accounting for Collins' cap hold ($12.4M) and the incomplete roster holds ($1.85M), right? And even then, we'd have to renounce our Bird rights and cap holds on literally everyone else--Lou, Mays, and Knight, most notably--to have access to that meager cap space. Even Snell's Bird rights might be useful if another team that's over the cap is interested in him. I think the amount we can spend on the MLE is also lower if we choose to rely on cap space (although I admit I'm fuzzy on that point). All in all, I don't think we can't get anyone much better than what we'd be renouncing with that money.

On 7/14/2021 at 11:21 AM, Sothron said:

There's only only correct answer on who we should draft. Ayo Dosunmu. Kid is a legit stud at 6'5" with long wingspan and has the killer mentality. Would absolutely love to have him on our team.

 

Agree that Ayo seems like a good fit in terms of "could potentially help right away." But do a Google search of "Nigerian Civil War" and you'll see why I at least would want to be sure Schlenk talks to both Onyeka (whose family is Igbo) and Ayo (whose family is Yoruba) and get their thoughts before making that pick. It's not unlike bringing in both an Ulster Scot and an Irishman or players from the former Yugoslav countries...they're probably cool with playing with each other, but you wanna make sure...

2 hours ago, niremetal said:

(when John Collins exposed that Dwight could not, in fact, take over games offensively).

*JASON Collins, obviously

1 hour ago, Spud2nique said:

Hands down the best. 2015 was second fun. Then prolly 2007-2008. The Celtics to 7 with Zaza and KG.

I think it goes:

1. 2020-21
2. 2014-15
3. 1987-88
4. 2010-11

This year is the only year in memory where I genuinely thought the Hawks had a chance to win it all. I could easily see arguments about how to rank 2-4, because none of those teams had a realistic path to the 'chip.

In '88, we didn't make the ECF, but came damned close (twice) against an all-time great team. I don't see a scenario where the '15 team beats the Cavs, but I could see a scenario where the '88 Hawks beat the Bad Boys Pistons. Not the Lakers, though.

The 2011 team was the best from the JJ era. The team basically took the regular season off, but then upset the Magic in the 1st round (when John Collins exposed that Dwight could not, in fact, take over games offensively). Then took a game off Chicago at home in the Semis, but squandered home court in game 3. Had we gotten past the Bulls, I actually feel we matched up better defensively with the Heat superteam better than people realize. Almost certainly not enough to get past them (we had no one other than JJ and Jamal capable of creating their own shot), but I think the series could have been interesting.

1 hour ago, RedDawg#8 said:

This was a team defense breakdown, but I want y'all to see how many times John was making the right defensive reads.

This was the game where people were saying he should have stepped up more. But that's ignoring what he was able to do defensively. Clint is supposed to be the defensive captain, but you see John barking at his teammates.

There was a sequence in the 1st quarter where he was on Giannis in the post, slid in front of him to get the steal, and after the break was able to find Capela for a lob dunk after attacking a close out.

This was a game where he scored 4 points, but had the highest plus minus on the team at +26 in a game that was won by 22. In only 29 mins, which was 2nd fewest of the starters, he was making a winning impact beyond the stat sheet.

He does not get enough credit for being a team player on both ends. 

Great watch. Same video also shows Bogi's physicality and active hands on defense, which was really Dunn-esque in the playoffs. Both he and Collins are underrated defenders.

Personally, I'm coming around to the notion that we pay Collins what it takes to keep him here and move Capela next summer (assuming Okongwu continues to develop defensively the way he did late this season), when 75% of Gallo's salary will also be coming off the books. Between JC's defensive improvements, his certified ability to stretch the floor, and the intangibles that Chris Kirschner went on about in his writeup, I think the risk in letting him walk--or, frankly, doing any realistic sign-and-trade--outweighs the risk of overpaying him. Even if he never learns how to dribble.

10 hours ago, AHF said:

I think I would count out both him and McConnell if you are asking me what is realistic in terms of people embracing a role behind Trae.  Both will want something resembling a starting role, imo.  But the fact that one of these guards can't play the 2 doesn't matter to me.  Between Bogi, Huerter and Cam we have more than enough coverage for those minutes.  The reason I picked is that the question was who would you want and I'd want the guy who could win me a game in the playoffs with impact minutes and from that list that person is Rose.  If he embraced a "rest heavy, mentor" type of role at this point in his career then playing with Trae could be a really good mix and would put us in a much stronger position when Trae sits or is hurt.  Am I betting on that?   No, but I'd be excited if it happened.

But how is Rose (or McConnell for that matter) going to get minutes in the playoffs unless Trae gets hurt--in which case the odds of a deep playoff run are essentially nil anyway? I just don't see Rose being interested yet in a role where he has no realistic prospect of being on the floor in important moments.

Disagree on McConnell. He simply doesn't have the production (read: scoring ability) necessary to be a starting PG in the modern game, at least not a team that's going to win more than 25 games. He strikes me as being in the same mold as guys like Brevin Knight--solid backup who will give you good minutes off the bench and spot starts, but you're in trouble if you're leaning on him to play major minutes. I think he'd be perfect for a role here as a backup and spot starter, and I don't think he'd get a much better deal elsewhere. 

The other thing to bear in mind is that if Dunn exercises his option, we'll already have one backup PG who can't score. Strikes me that is Coach Nate plans to keep Dunn around, bringing back Lou or finding someone in his mold would be a better fit than a guy like McConnell, just so we have a couple change-of-pace options behind Trae. The closest fit among those options would then be Mills, but his scoring ability has diminished with his foot speed. 

I don't know why people keep putting D-Rose as a potential backup PG. He can't play the 2 (certainly not well enough to take those minutes from Bogi/Huerter/Reddish), so his role would be strictly that of a backup behind a guy who's gonna play 35 minutes a night and be on the court for all the most important minutes. Why would we think he'd be interested in coming here and playing 12 minutes a game when there are plenty of playoff teams (Boston, Dallas, LAC, etc) that could offer him a much more featured role?