niremetal

Update on this. Since I posted this, Trae has been...still pretty bad in the 4th quarter (though less-bad than he was before, esp in creating for teammates). 2P% All 4th Quarter Before 1/15: 50.4% Since 1/15: 45.2% Total for season in 4th: 50.0% (vs 49.7% overall) Clutch Before Jan 15: 44.0% Since Jan 15: 40.0% Total for season in clutch: 42.8% (vs 49.7% overall) 3P% All 4th Quarter Before 1/15: 25.9% Since 1/15: 33.3% Total for season in 4th: 29.2% (vs 37.9% overall) Clutch Before Jan 15: 11.1% Since Jan 15: 28.6% Total for season in clutch: 18.8% (vs 37.9% overall) Ast/TO All 4th Quarter Before 1/15: 6.5 ast per 36 min | 4.7 TO per 36 min Since 1/15: 6.4 | 3.5 Total for season in 4th: 6.5 | 4.1 (vs 9.7 | 4.3 overall) Clutch Before Jan 15: 1.7 ast per 36 min | 7.6 TO per 36 min Since Jan 15: 6.0 | 2.3 Total for season in clutch: 3.9 | 5.0 (vs 9.7 | 4.3 overall) I was surprised by the low TOs since then, but bear in mind that over the past ~15 games, the number of minutes in clutch situations is so small that the per 36 min stats are highly sensitive to individual assists and turnovers. For example, the play where Trae lost the handle with 3 seconds on the shot clock and had to give it to Bogi for a contested desperation 3 went down as a missed shot for Bogi, although it was effectively a TO by Trae. If that had been a TO, Trae's per 36 min TO rate would have doubled to 4.6 (since he only had 1 other TO and just 3 asts in the clutch during that stretch). Bad shots and not looking for his teammates down the stretch continues to be the norm. He's maybe converting slightly better lately, but it's still game-killingly bad.

Too bad. Google gives a super-helpful definition right off the bat:

I voted Kevin because I'm still not sold on Bogi's knee holding up. I don't put much stock into playing with two weeks' rest when your opponent is the Kings on the second night of a road back-to-back. On paper, both guys are a great fit with the second unit--K'von gives them a second solid defender, while Bogi gives us a more rounded offensive option than anyone else out there. And honestly, not messing with the second unit's unreal chemistry has to be as much of a consideration as who starts, because the bench got its act together first, and I feel like that had some gravitational pull on getting the starters to play better too. Friday, when we go up against probably the East's toughest perimeter rotation, will be a real test, I think.

I love K'Von, but he ain't no Lou Gehrig.

I definitely think that at this moment, he's worth more to us on the floor. But I feel like in the pre-play-in era, he'd probably have more value as a trading piece. Heck, in a season where there was less parity overall, he'd have a lot more value as a trading piece. But this year isn't like that. Usually, blockbuster trades involving a high-dollar expiring contract involve one of three types of players on the other side: (1) a good or great veteran player from a team that's out of the playoff hunt; (2) a disgruntled player from a competitive team; or (3) some first round picks attached to a dramatically overpaid player on a non-expiring contract. We would have little interest in a (3)-type player right now. The market of (2)-type players is usually not that big, and this year it's especially thin. The only type of players who fit (2) are Simmons and maybe the Celtics stars, which is why there's so much chatter surrounding Simmons. But Philly clearly isn't interested in just getting Gallo and some picks back for Simmons, so that's not a plausible trade scenario for Gallo. That leaves (1), but the combination of relative parity and the play-in tournament mean that very few teams are actually out of the hunt. These are the playoff standings right now: In a normal year, Portland, New Orleans, San Antonio, and Sacramento might all be making all their vets available. But they are all doing well enough that those teams aren't in true fire-sale mode where they are prioritizing cap flexibility over improving their rosters. And some teams that everyone expected to suck this year (looking at you, Washington, Cleveland, and Minnesota) are actually legit threats to make the playoffs outright. That leaves Detroit, Orlando, OKC, Houston, and maybe Indiana. But Orlando, OKC, and Houston don't have any notable veterans--certainly none that would give us more than Gallo. That leaves Indiana's players and Jerami Grant. I have a feeling someone will outbid us for Sabonis or Turner if Gallo is the centerpiece from our end. We don't need LeVert or Brogdon. Which leaves Grant as pretty much the only target available. Again, I think other teams will outbid us if Gallo and a protected first are all we offer. And is Grant good enough to warrant unloading multiple firsts (thereby closing the door on a consolidation trade for a true star down the road) along with Gallo to get him? I think not. So yeah--this year, Gallo's more valuable to us on the floor.

Posts suggesting Bogi has value? Peoriabird will be coming any minute now...

Dang. Diesel putting experienced trial attorneys to shame with his cross-examination of Supes.

Methinks the other team would insist on a pretty rigorous physical. Bogi ain't Cam, whose contract is small enough that a team wouldn't really feel it if he turned out to be a bust. Bogi's higher salary + trade kicker mean that he probably isn't tradeable unless the other team is 100% confident he isn't damaged goods.

Not necessarily. There are certain injuries that won't get worse by playing through them, especially with appropriate rest/use management, but that won't get completely better until surgery. Okongwu's offseason labrum surgery and Huerter's offseason ankle procedure are both examples of that. O's in particular--basketball players frequently play through torn labrums (sometimes even torn labrums in both shoulders) because you can still function at like 90% of normal with it. I don't claim to know the anatomy of the knee, but I know there've been plenty of basketball players (and athletes in all other sports) who delay surgery until the offseason on injuries that eventually need it so that they stay available during playoff runs. The most extreme example I know of is from the WNBA--Elena Delle Donne had 3 herniated discs in her back, but gritted through it while her team was on a championship run in 2019, where she played a critical role despite being way less than 100%. Then she got the surgery in the offseason, needed another surgery a year later, and was only able to return this past season for a couple games before getting shut down again. She may have essentially put off career-ending surgery because even hobbled, she was still able to play a key role for her team. If you need me to find more examples, I'm sure I can. But it may well be that the Hawks figure that they can get Bogi up to 80 to 90% of his old self with rest/use management, and that 80/90% Bogi is going to be more useful in the playoffs than, say, TLC at 100%.

Well... With the early rule-outs continuing through the weekend, I think one of two things is happening: Bogi's injury is more concerning than they've let on--like maybe it's the sort of thing that can only be truly fixed by surgery, but they don't want to go that route if there's still a chance that the Hawks could make a serious playoff run and could need Bogi for that (even if he is less than 100%). It's not that serious an injury, but it *is* the sort of thing that will only get totally better with extended rest. And with the Hawks on the closest thing to a hot streak they've been all season, they are going to hold him out until he's either 100% healthy (since that knee has been an issue twice now in the past year) or until the hot streak comes crashing down and they need him back in the lineup to shake things up. I think that each game where he is ruled out before gameday makes (2) less likely.

Underrated post. I have not seen a single good counter to this: if Trae wanted to have catch-and-shoot opportunities off the ball, why does he stand at the front of the logo twiddling his thumbs whenever a teammate has the ball? When was the last time we saw him do a give-and-go (a basic play that plenty of guys do without a specific play call)? When he passes it to a wing, why does he then plant himself 35 feet from the basket? Why doesn't he demonstrate any sense of spacing or even awareness of where he should move so his teammates will have better angles to kick it out to him? The JC play that @Peoriabird posted is actually a great example of that. Trae was LITERALLY OFF SCREEN when JC released the pass, despite the fact that anyone with eyes could have seen the trap (and JC's need for help) coming from a mile away, and there was plenty of real estate closer to the three-point line that would have given JC an easier pass. Trash his teammates' playmaking skills all you want.* But if he's actually interested in catch-and-shoot opportunities, he has absolutely not shown any indication of that in the way he plays. This is the NBA. You take the opportunities you're given, and he hasn't done that. So sorry, Chris Haynes--there's a disconnect between what Rayford says and the way his son actually plays. And I think the latter is a better sign of what Trae would actually do in an off-ball role. * I'll point out that Bogi has always had a good assist rate (particularly for someone who has always played the 2-guard) and low turnover rate and absolutely has the ability to drive-and-dish well, as he's demonstrated quite often, particularly last season--when Trae would still stand at the logo picking his nose whenever Bogi had the ball. This is a fair point--and one that also suggests that the problem is not personnel, but system. I agree that the system (or rather, the lack thereof) is a major problem. But trades won't fix the system. And even (lack-of-)system issues don't explain why Trae has showed no interest in or awareness of literally high-school-level principles of off-ball movement in games.

Swing and a miss!

The fact that they've ruled him out a day or two in advance the last couple games suggests to me he has a ways to go. IMHO...I'm fine with him getting his knee scoped and shutting him down for a couple months if it means the Bogi we saw last spring has a chance to return. But I know some joint issues don't work like that.

I think you might be onto something, Diesel. https://twitter.com/sarah_k_spence/status/1483560084131225601?t=0Aq0zGDAVbq9_Z4IlbCzKg

The defensive communication issues are frankly to be expected considering how little time this crew has played together. Per Stathead, coming into tonight: Our starters (Trae/Huerter/Hunter/Collins/Okongwu) had been on the floor together for just 7.5 minutes...ever. That combination never saw the floor during the regular season last year, only played 0.7 minutes together in the playoffs, and they've only played 6.8 minutes together this season. The group that finished the game (swap out Collins for Gallo) had only had 8.1 minutes together (6.1 of them this season, 2 in the regular season last year). I'm happy with the effort and the toughness they showed defensively tonight. If they can sustain that (a big, big if), I'm confident the communication will come. Offensively...my only concern is the toll Trae's usage will take. I think a fully healthy Dre and Bogi, combined with a more aggressive Huerter, could actually be enough. But I'm still thinking a consolidation trade is coming. Gallo's stock is shooting way up, which both helps us on the court in the short term and makes him more enticing as a trade piece (especially in multi-team deals). That said, trading away Reddish for a first (and a player who is never going to see the floor here) also means there is no roster glut at the moment. The consolidation trade could be coming in the offseason.