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Posts posted by enrique
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4 hours ago, Peoriabird said:I just figured out why that on/off stat is being avoided
Player on/off court in 2021-22
Dejounte Murray +2.3
Kevin Huerter +4.8
Where did you pull that on/off rating from?
The cleanest stats for almost any of these metrics come from Cleaningtheglass.com. They filter garbage time out and leave in the rest.
2021-22 on/off court
Murray +5.6
Huerter +3.8
But on/off aren't a tool used to compare players on different teams. It gives context to a player's actual impact. Look at Ja Morant...amazing stats, but a -3.2 on/off. In other words, you could say his stats are "empty" or are inflated in the context of his team.
Murray was a +5.6 (second among starters for Spurs) on a team with a net rating of -0.3. In other words he made a massive impact.
One of the highest regarded advanced metrics that has the highest predictive value is Dunksandthrees EPM.
Huerter has an EPM of +.01 with a helpful estimated increase of wins of 4.5 for the Hawks. This ranks 163rd in the NBA.
In contrast Murray has an EPM +3.7 for estimated win increase of +10.7. This ranks 26th in the NBA.
Again, on/off contextualizes a player's contributions. Big stats with negative on/off is a warning sign. Big stats with a strong on/off is awesome. Murray certainly hits the mark.
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14 hours ago, benhillboy said:
Back to Russell. His net rating was 3 points worse than Taurean Prince’s for the Wolves. At $31 mil. Sheesh. Their whole team performed pretty steadily and solidly though no awful ratings.
He is a career negative in on/off ratings. He is inefficient at everything you want a point guard for too. Not a fan.
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6 hours ago, Atlantaholic said:
so this is why we had no interest in paying Sap 6m
But at this point JJ's shot is no where as smooth and sure as trillsap. Hopefully our rooks will get in the gym and work on their shot. So much goodness in those two players from one draft...Schlenk has the eye
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12 hours ago, Spud2nique said:
Gallo will be easy to move during season if needed. His contract (with only 5 mill guaranteed in his last season) is not a bad one at this point.
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31 minutes ago, bleachkit said:
Capela is lucky he won. That mishandled pass from JC with 16 seconds left could have cost us the game.
John should have elevated to taken that shot. Embiid’s in his head.
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1 hour ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:
Playoffs are about matchups.
The Sixers, once they made the adjustment, have proven to be a horrible matchup for the Hawks.
The only weapon we have is our long range shooting.
If you take Embiid out of the paint, maybe that opens up some driving lanes to the basket for Trae.
If Embiid still stays in the paint, you have have Collins or Gallo open for 3s that they MUST TAKE if open.
We haven’t shot the ball good enough to make the Sixers adapt. They are long and physical and have take us way past the 3 pt line. Since they own the paint too, we are one and done on most any possession. Game 2 we got lots of offensive boards and couldn’t convert them to baskets. Without being able to score inside it just allows them to play tight on the perimeter.
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2 hours ago, MarylandHawk said:Got it. Trae is a bad man.
Whatever Ja did with Murray State was against the 230th hardest schedule. While whatever Trae did at Oklahoma was against the 8th hardest schedule in the nation.
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1 hour ago, Atlantaholic said:Not sure if he was the first freshman or the first player, but definitely a first of some kind.
Just looked it up and he is the first and only player in NCAA history to lead the nation in both scoring and assists. Note: Assists were not officially tracked prior to 1983-84 season.
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On 6/7/2021 at 9:06 AM, Atlantaholic said:
He led the nation in points and assists as a freshmen. It's kind of mindboggling how he became underrated, consider Marvin was a consensus top 2 pick the year we drafted him and he barely averaged double figures.
And I believe Trae is the only player in NCAA history to lead in both. I might be wrong, but I remember reading that before the draft.
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4 hours ago, JeffS17 said:
Thanks, this is really helpful -- I love stats but I'm pretty bad at finding them, but this matches the eye test
If you need help understanding any of the stats there let me know. Also, we should start a thread with our favorite sources of stats.
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2 hours ago, Diesel said:
Look, Luka has been in the playoffs 2 years in a row and hasn't gotten past the first round. Luka is a great player. I think the same can be said about Trae. They are going to be connected forever but let's not act as though Trae was a bad pickup.
I am grateful we got Trae! Love to watch him play and create for the team.
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1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:They should get a real system, but even if you drop Luka into our system right now, we're not doing as well as with Trae. People sleep so hard on Trae's vision and passing. Luka does not have that in the same way that Harden does not have it. Those guys rack up volume assists because they drive/kick 80 times a game. Trae's assists numbers are even more impressive when you factor in how many hockey assists he has to be racking up (not sure if that's tracked anywhere), and I think his assist:turnover ratio is already better than lukas.
Here are the regular season hockey assists among other passing stats. Trae is the second most efficient passer in the regular season.
Here are the playoff stats. Luka has upped his passing game, but Trae is the most efficient passer in the playoffs so far.
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2 hours ago, RandomFan said:
As someone who has had a partially torn meniscus, I can assure you there is a high possibility of more damage. When the torn flap flips up into your ball joint, you have to pop your knee back into place to force it back in down, which hurts like hell.
And if you aren't careful and it tears more, there could be a time when you think it's just not popping back in so you push it harder, and then partially tear one of your ligaments. Which leaves you with your leg locked at about a 90 degree angle for 6 weeks while you walk around on crutches waiting for the swelling to go down so you can have surgery.
Don't ask me how I know this.
But my advice to Embiid is to shut it down for the season. Especially someone with his injury history and size.
Granted, a full meniscal tear hurts. I have not known of a lot of ligament damage from a torn meniscus. If that is a common result from a fully torn meniscus, then I would agree. My point on managing the pain is as long as he can go, let him go. If however there is a 50% chance of ligament damage (which I do not know), then I'd agree. Shut him down. Normally the ligament damage precedes the tearing of the meniscus as the shear force of the femur sliding away from the tibia can shred the meniscus. Again, I am not sure of the opposite occurring.
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3 hours ago, Final_quest said:
Glad someone mentioned this. He got gimpy towards the end of the game. If we win Game 2, would they consider shutting him down? Definitely keeping tabs on his injury.
I think that as long as he can manage the pain, we will see Embiid. Not a lot more damage can be done...he is going to have meniscal surgery in the off season and then rehab before next season. Not like ligament damage
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10 hours ago, bleachkit said:
For his size he is an outstanding rebounder. There is considerable debate about how impactful that is, but I think it's suggests a high level of effort.
The interesting thing is Trae grabs as many offensive boards as Luka this post season. To me the boards I’ve seen Luka get aren’t often anything more than routine. Watching Kawhi out effort Luka for boards was super clear. It might have been a conditioning thing. Not sure.
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2 minutes ago, bleachkit said:Last year had to be one of the worst benches of all time. If there was a worst one, I cant think of it.
Well to confirm your suspicions I pulled the data...You are spot on!
Read it and weep!!!!
We were dead last in NET for the bench...and guess who had a Top-5 bench to help him win games?
You guessed it...Luka!
As I said, I have no pity on Luka at all. He is a great player who has been praised before he did much and the narrative never looked to criticize his game. Trae has had a 180-degree different experience. So I certainly hope Trae is enjoying this!!! It is WELL-DESERVED!!!! For the whole franchise!
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4 minutes ago, bleachkit said:
Well maybe Cuban needs a new GM. Porzingus trade has been so-so at best. Trading Curry for Richardson was a bad trade, he was a complete non factor for the Mavs. They thought they were getting Giannis or another mega star, and struck out. I like that TS got didnt sell the farm for a star, instead got solid veterans like Bogi and Capela that filled their roles to a T.
For sure...TS knew that Trae with extra first rounders, along with other assets he was acquiring was the way to go. I think he also recognized that Trae is a star and will help others become their better selves on the court. He sets the table so well most of the time. Tonight there were some rough patches, but I imagine he is going to be studying film of the last 4 or 5 minutes like crazy tonight and tomorrow. TS has certainly been building the team around the player Trae is and can be. To Trae's credit he is working hard to improve on his weak areas. The coaching change has definitely brought out a different kind of player in Trae.
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Just now, JayBirdHawk said:This^.
The Hawks and Trae were maligned last year because he couldn't take the likes of Lamian, Crabbe, Parsons, Parker, Turner etc to the playoffs.
When the media doesn't want to praise you...although some are doing it now...they will find a way to cast shade on even the best you are doing. Sad that the metric changes now that it would favor Trae. In the end he will prove all doubters wrong. I am just stoked to get to watch Trae do "Trae things" in the playoffs right now while the rest of the nation watches. On B/R the other day a Knick fan said "Yeah, I always thought Trae just flopped all the time. Dudes tough. He plays through so much contact. He's the real deal." Another convert.
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1 minute ago, Spud2nique said:
I would have done a Herschel Walker grandfather type trade to get the Dallas pick that year as well and keep Luka.
Trae and Luka. That would have been unfair.
Grandfather trades usually backfire as it did with Herschel and the Vikings but that’s football and each deal is independent of its own. I would have pulled the trigger to get both Trae and Luka and team them up. I would have traded 3 first round picks and players. You risk about 5 year but if it pans out you have a 10 year championship window if you play your cards right.All Monday morning QB stuff.
If I had to do it all over I’m still taking Trae and LOOOOVVVVIIING IT!!!!! We got our man. He’s made of that old strong cloth!
His greatest ability is his work-ethic...it will infuse everyone around him. That boy isn't afraid to improve and struggle to improve in season and off season. I hope he keeps humble and hungry! Trae's fortunately been our man since draft night.
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9 minutes ago, bleachkit said:I know the narrative that the Hawks have a better roster than the Mavs seems like a goal post moving and perhaps it is, but nevertheless it might be true. Our starting 5 Trae, Bogi, Dre, JC and Capela, is just better than the Mavs starting 5 of Doncic, THJR, DFS, Porzingus and Marjanovich (or whoever they put at center).
The problem with this concession is that when it came to ROY, the fact that Atlanta had a horrific roster and the Mavs had a solid roster with a top-5 bench didn't ever enter the national conversation about why Trae should be considered on the merits of his statistical accomplishments. But that was scoffed at. Now when it comes to playoff time, suddenly people want to say "Oh wait, Luka doesn't have a good supporting cast." Well his on/off splits aren't revealing that he is the man and no one else can do a thing on the team. Trae and Luka in the playoffs this year are both #3 on their teams for on/off splits.
If Trae didn't get any credit for the abysmal team he played on his rookie season, why should we concede anything to someone whose playing on a worse roster right now. Just doesn't make any sense. I accepted the "Hawks Suck therefore Luka is ROY." I will let the "Dallas Sucks...Trae is a stud" stand.
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7 minutes ago, bleachkit said:
When he's hitting threes, that's big for us. Teams are so worried about Trae and Bogi, they usually concede JC on the perimeter.
His corner 3s have been bailing us out on several occasions...Not to mention Red Velvets 3p% increase for these playoffs. He's really impacting games.
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22 minutes ago, marco102 said:
Trae's dad is clapping back now that we are in the second round.
I feel Ray here. Trae got crapped on because the Hawks had a bad record his first two years. The reality was Trae was our #1 guy last year. Luka has never been carrying his team. The on/off splits have always revealed it. You can check:
- 2020-2021 https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/DAL/2021.html#pbp::11
- 2019-2020 https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/DAL/2020.html#pbp::11
- 2018-2019 https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/DAL/2019.html#pbp::11
While Trae has been a more efficient scorer and passer each year of his career, Luka has been amassing stats that are impressive, but not making his team better. Even in these playoffs, Trae has pulled down almost the same number of offensive boards as Luka. Trae was snubbed for ROY because he was a great player on one of the worst teams talent wise ever put on an NBA court. So I have no problem saying Trae is better than Luka this year since his team is advancing and Luka's is not. If Luka's not even top-3 on his own team in on/off splits, he shouldn't be held up as the greatest young player.
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2 hours ago, MarylandHawk said:This is almost looking like a straight up even trade without even considering Cam, who I hope turns into Jason Tatum one day.
I have said since his rookie year that Trae has been a win without including Cam. If the media cared to look at Trae without the prejudgment of "bust" they would have seen it.
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2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:
Let's see what Nate can come up with defensively in the second half.
Impressed at the Hawks play on D the second half. Wish they'd made the change earlier on one of those time outs.
The Mega Super Rumor Thread (Part 2)
in Homecourt
Posted
You are aware that John had an on/off this past season per CleaningtheGlass of 0.0 playing on a team with a net rating of +1.5. If you really want to go down this line of reasoning.