Packfill

12 minutes ago, KB21 said:

I think we stay at 15 and take Cason Wallace.  

15 is a sweet spot if you want a combo guard! I don't see any of the combo guard options as early contributors for the Hawks though unless they make some moves (many of them do, however, have 3rd guard upside).  

This draft seems like a total crap shoot after pick 11.

18 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Again... this is not really about Jokic vs. Trae.. like you want it to be... you wanted to talk about Championship teams right?

Alright let's change the focus for you...  Take either of the Detroit teams that won a championship...  Who was their MVP level player? (Especially the non Bad boys).  You said it's easy to get the supporting cast.  Cool  then let's bring them in.   Be a supporting cast like Detriot had.   You can try to discredit Trae all you like.. that's your prerogative.  However, let's not mistake the fact that Trae is probably the best player that has ever won the Hawks Jersey from an output point of view.   Yeah the game is dominated by Lebrons and Giannis and Jokics and Embiid but until Jokic finally got his supporting cast together, he had MVPs but had never left the 2nd round of the playoffs.  Embiid has an MVP but has never sniffed the conference finals.   So having the hardware that says that the fans and some writers appreciate your game doesn't automatically mean that you're going to the Chip and can win it.   That requires a team effort.   

 

A few things I will note:

1.  The premise of this thread is about winning a championship and what it takes to get there.

2.  No one said anything to discredit Trae.  It is absolutely fair to question whether a team with Trae as its best player can win a championship.  Trae is young enough he can still improve.  

3.  The Detroit title teams are the outlier in history.  Pretty much every other champion since the Showtime Lakers has had an MVP level performer.

4. I never said having an MVP level performer guarantees even a shot at a title, just that the last 30 years of NBA history shows it is a requirement to get one.  Not every MVP gets a title.  

5. No one said it is easy finding the right supporting cast.  What I did say it is it easier to find a supporting cast than an MVP.  There are so many fewer MVP caliber players!

6. Absolutely NO ONE questions that Jordan needed Pippen; Magic needed Worthy; Bird needed McHale; LeBron needed Wade/Kyrie/AD; Hakeem needed Clyde; Duncan needed the Admiral; Shaq needed Kobe; Steph need Klay; etc.

10 hours ago, Diesel said:

The truth my friend is that Denver doesn't win a chip and you know it, I know it and every fan on this board knows it.  Moreover, it's not pointless, it proves the point...  Jokic has a much better cast playing with him than Trae does.   Period.  When you have others around you who are really good, then you look better.   Miami couldn't isolate Jokic the way that they isolated Trae.  They tried that and Murray went OFF... Murray and Jokic were the first pair ever to have 30 point triple doubles in the HISTORY OF THE FINALS.   Probably ever.   Do you even grasp the gravity of that.   That's two guys getting whatever they want when they want it. 

You keep harping on Trae needing to raise his game.  What player is Trae playing with that's capable of meeting him with a 30 point triple double?

Let me help you here... NONE.  We can barely get another player to score 20 points.   When we played Miami, the system was so easy because Miami knew we had NO BODY who could score consistently.   

In game 4, do you realize that Gordon scored 27 points...  Bruce Brown put up 21 points.   While we are begging for Hunter to just be a little more aggressive and try to get over the 12 point hump, they have players putting up damn near 30 points. 

You damn right that Jokic looks like the MVP.. He has a high quality team.  I watched the start of game 5, Miami figured out that if they just run on every inbound that they will get Jokic tired.  And it worked.   And they took Jokic out of the game because he was getting in foul trouble.   And Bam started working over Green.   Then they went to the bench and pulled off Jordan and we didn't hear a peep from Bam any more. Then Jokic came back and kept eating. 

Lastly.. you give Trae Murray, MPJ and Gordon... I wouldn't count out a trip to the chip.  Just like those guys help elevate Jokic game.  They would do the same for Trae. 

 

 

 

 

No question the supporting cast is the second most important element to winning a championship.  It is just that the first and most important element is the MVP. 

Jokic won a MVP without Jamal Murray and MPJ.  Can Trae?  Hopefully, be he needs to raise his game in a way that directly results in more wins for the team.  He can average 30 and 12 but if the team is 41-41 it won't matter.

43 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

Just for accuracy, Westbrook has only done that 1 time in his career.  That was his MVP year where he averaged a triple double on 31 ppg.  But they lose in round 1.  Here was his squad.

 

 

Russell had to do it all for that team, considering how young and inexperienced they were.  His turnovers were astronomically high, but it wasn't due to lack of effort.  He simply had to do too much, or felt he had to do it.

Even if Westbrook shot 50% FG, that team isn't winning anything.

You simply need others at times to step up.  Most of the time, those others are going to be vets that know how to play the game.

No one disputes the importance of a good supporting cast.  It is just that it is easier to get a good supporting cast than it is to get an MVP, particularly one in their prime.  Embiid is an MVP level player but he has not gotten a championship because his supporting cast has not been good enough.

Jokic won an MVP with an underwhelming supporting cast (due to injuries to Murray and MPJ) and the playoff results evidence that lack of support.  

If everyone thinks Trae is our MVP (I honestly do not think he has played at an MVP level to date) then where are they getting their Jamal Murray?  

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

@PackfillLet's try this again...  You missed it...

Trade Hunter, Collins, and our Murray for MPJ, Gordon and their Murray.

Does Denver still win a chip??

 

Hard to say. Denver’s chances go down for sure but they have a better shot after that trade than the Hawks do because they have an MVP. 
 

it is a pointless issue though because the key point is NBA history shows us that the baseline for an NBA championship is an MVP level performer. Denver has that and the Hawks do not. And to be clear having an MVP level player does not guarantee you will get a championship just that it is a requirement to get there. 
 

The history of NBA champions is a gut punch to fans of teams that lack that caliber of player. 

4 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

Denver won nothing until Murray emerged as a legit All-Star level player ( even if he hasn't made an All-Star team yet ).

Trae could be the greatest NBA PG of all time, he'd still need some help.

Playoff Jamal Murray is incredible.  Regular season Jamal Murray is good. 

Dejounte can provide regular season Jamal Murray production but no evidence yet he can do what Jamal does in the playoffs.

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

Here you go... @Packfill

Trade Hunter, Collins, and our Murray for MPJ, Gordon and their Murray.

Do they win a chip?

 

No unless Trae levels up.

That is not a slight on Trae just fact.  Jokic is currently the best player in the world.  Remember Jokic won an MVP last year with no Murray and MPJ playing only 9 games. 

10 hours ago, Diesel said:

I disagree.  Jokic didn't raise his game.  His supporting cast got of the IL...

Murray, MPJ, and KCP and Gordon are a great surrounding cast.   They were finally all healthy at the same time. 

Our guys are healthy but not that good. 

Jokic is a much better player than Trae. Maybe Trae levels up to that MVP level but until that happens history shows the Hawks have little chance to win a championship. 
 

And Jokic is a good example of a player that leveled up- he went from all star to MVP. 

1 hour ago, KB21 said:

Ratings of note in Sam Vecenie’s top 100:

10.  Derek Lively

11.  Kobe Bufkin

12.  Bilal Coulibaly

13.  Leonard Miller

14.  Cason Wallace

15.   Jalen Hood-Schifino

16.  Grady d*ck

17.  Kris Murray

18.  Jordan Hawkins

19.  Brice Sensabaugh

20.  Dariq Whitehead 

I am a little surprised that Bufkin and Miller are so high.  Miller intrigues me.

6 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Why is it that everytime we mention what's needed for our success, the onus is always on Trae to do something to improve?  In the History of Basketball, when hasn't 27/10 been enough.  You make it seem as though we have studs surrounding Trae and Trae has to bring his game up.   Why not talk about what our sorry cast of Forwards need to do to make our team better??  I am so tired of Hunter getting a pass because he's the right size.   It's Marvin Williams all over again.   JC needs to play at a higher level too.  Even if we're playing him wrong, he has to show that he can be dominant in the wrong way that we're playing him.  AND  If DJ can't wratched up the defense then we may as well play Bogi.   At least Bogi will hit some shots. 

27/10 is irrelevant.  Trae needs to raise his level of play to give the Hawks a chance.  Jokic raised his game from all-star to MVP after the Nuggets lost in the playoffs in 2019.  Can Trae make the same jump?

The best player on the last few championship teams:

2023: Jokic; 2022: Cury; 2021:  Giannis; 2020: Lebron;  2019:  Kawhi (before 2019 there is a lot of Lebron and Curry over the prior decade, with some Kawhi and Dirk thrown in the mix).

Lebron, Curry, Giannis and Jokic are all going to go down as all time greats.  

If the Hawks are going to win a championship history shows we need an all-time great or a truly great ensemble roster (think Detroit Bad Boys). 

Unless the Hawks are going for a rebuild, who they draft should not have a big impact on trades because most of the available talent is a couple years away from helping in a meaningful way.  

I don't think this trade proposal is good for any of the teams involved.

Hawks need a big with a more well rounded game and this trade just delivers two backups

Wiz will be walking into a disaster pairing two big guys with no switchability

Philly only does this out of desperation

Suns maybe like this trade as it gives them a third offensive cog but it does not solve the fact they need a . . .Mikal Bridges

Hawkins is a very intriguing player due to his offensive game but a defensive pairing with Trae would be a disaster for the Hawks.  At this point I think I would prefer Kobe Bufkin if I were to go with a shooting guard at 15, with the hope he turns into versatile third guard.

Really though, Cam Whitmore would be my guy for the the Hawks in this draft but I think he is gone long before 15.

I think it is more likely, however, the Hawks go for length and take a flier on Leonard Miller or Noah Clowney.

49 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Watching the Celtics last night, it was a stark contrast in how they cover a star struggling in the playoffs.  Tatum is 1-14 at one point and has had quite a few really bad games so far in the playoffs.  The Celtics have carried Tatum and won in spite of him.  But what you hear is how inspiring he is, and how he impacts the game in other ways.  Trae NEVER gets that kind of talk.

Trae's 2nd year in the NBA he averages 29.6 ppg on 52% eFG% with 9 assists.  They said he was a selfish player and stat padder on a bad team.  It's beyond annoying.

I do not consider myself a Trae hater but I would trade him in a nanosecond for Tatum (I think every GM in the league would as well).  I do not think you can say they have won in spite of him on any objective or subjective basis.  Tatum does impact the game at so many levels. 

He did pull a Trae last night by busting out in the 4th Q.  

On 5/11/2023 at 7:46 AM, Diesel said:

Trae put up 26.2, 10.2, and 3.0.   And led the league in total assists.  His team made the playoffs.   Beat Miami in the play in.  Faced a top seed and did not crumble.  He played through changing coaches and gave you 73 games. 

• 11th in the league in ppg. 
• 2nd in the league in apg 

Just for grins...

• Jokic is 18th in the league in ppg and 3rd in the league in apg. 
• Harden is Not in the top 20 in PPG and 1st in apg
• Embiid is 1st in the league in PPG and #49 in the league in apg.
• **SGA is 5th in the league in PPG and 30th in the league in apg.
• **Luka is 2nd in the league in ppg and 6th in the league in apg
• Steph is not top 20 in ppg and not top 20 in apg
• D Mitchell is 7th in the league in ppg and not in the top 20 in apg. 
• **D Lillard is 3rd in the league in ppg and 10th in the top 20  in apg
• D Fox is 14th  in the league in ppg and not in the top 20 in  apg

** - Team did not make the playoffs. 

I put all the ALl NBA teams in red.   As you look at the rankings, none of these All NBA team  Guards with the exception of Luka matchup favorably against Trae.   Lillard, SGA, and Luka didn't even make the playoffs.  The league puts out these things that say that Trae is Overrated right around the end of the season so that he does not get voted on for things like this. 

At the end of the day, this is just a popularity contest.   Steph is one of my favorite players but he is not top 20 in points or assists...   But he's second team ALL NBA guard.  His team didn't even do that well.   SGA had a good year for him.. but his team didn't make the play in..  Overall Trae is better.    He's just the flavor of the month because he got his scoring up.   Him and DFox needs to fight over MIP... but is he really more worthy?

 

 

 

Steph "is not in the top 20 in PPG" is misleading as he averaged over 29 points per game during the regular season.  That is of course more than Trae.  

Also not really fair to just look at points and assists for Jokic and Embiid.

I also think most NBA general managers would, based on the information they have today, trade Trae  for SGA if given the opportunity (and if they had SGA, would not trade him for Trae). That is my opinion.  To me OKC was surprisingly good given that they had no bigs and are so young/inexperienced as a team.

2 hours ago, kg01 said:

I dont disagree with what you're saying but I think this way of thinking is wrong.  Not a shot at you because the whole basketball world probably agrees with you.  I just hate the way "analytics" makes people think nowadays.

Players can't worry about analytics while playing.  They have to do what they have to do to try and win.  There are times when a  "bad/inefficient" shot is the only shot available in a possession.  There are times when the other 4 dudes on the floor got the deer/headlights look.  We saw one time, in particular, where we literally didn't have a play ready for the situation we were in.  No one knows how many other times that was the case as we were running offense(sic).  But all that gets recorded, from an analytic standpoint, is that the player made an "inefficient" result essentially.

There's no way for "analytics" to fully capture what's going on yet the basketball world has chosen to anoint these made up numbers to tell them what to think.

I'm not saying they're useless, I'm saying they're a tool.  At this point, the tool has become like AI that's taken over the world.

(not)Sorry for the rant.

I generally agree with your sentiment.  Trae needs to take the shots because the team has not evidenced an ability to win consistently without him being the guy - and for him part of being the guy is the gravity that volume creates.

To me Trae's inefficiency and ability to win in the playoffs is a product of the teams roster construction (combination of shot-creation, spacing and defense) and how other teams play defense against the Hawks and Trae.  

Teams with strong defenses seem willing on most nights to trade shots with the Hawks with the idea being they will out efficiency the Hawks (in part because the Hawks defense is not the effective).  They also dare anyone other than Trae to beat them.  That strategy, as we have seen, does not work when the Hawks are dropping shots but in a 7 game series teams are expecting this to work more often then not.

The Hawks need to solve those issues if they want to advance in the playoffs.  

Trae’s counting stats were great in the playoffs this year but his efficiency was not. It doesn’t matter though if you win. 
 

There have been some really incredible statistical performances in this year’s playoffs. 

I am still not sure about JJ.  I do think next season will be very important for him to establish himself as a regular contributor.  He should be doing a lot of shooting work in the off-season.

32 minutes ago, AHF said:

I don't think "running it back" will be enough to move us from bubble playoff team to contender but the moves you make need to be steps along the road to meaningful improvement which means either making trades that net positive impacts on the roster or that are first steps to that ultimate end.  I think a big plus to bringing Quin in with 1/4 of the season remaining was so that he could get an up close look at the team and our players and use that to inform our offseason strategy.  

So in answering this poll, it is less that I think we will or must make moves or stay the course with the current roster and more that I think we will see Snyder and Landry's view of the current roster in our offseason moves or lack thereof.  For example, if Snyder thinks JC is a keeper then we shouldn't see him being shopped and should see the team push back aggressively on rumors that he is being shopped.  If Snyder thinks we need to move on from JC either because he doesn't see him as a fit or because he sees Bey, Hunter, JJ, etc. as better options or because he thinks we have needs elsewhere or because he thinks we need the room to resign Bey and OO, etc. or any combination of factors, then we should see him shopped and likely moved.

So while I think internal growth won't be enough to get us there by itself, the degree to which we aggressively pursue deals will reflect where Snyder and Landry's heads are at on this and seeing that is one of the big revelations I am looking forward to seeing this year.

If they do ultimately conclude that changes need to be made, I think the three key determinations are what to do with:

DM

JC 

CC

So that could lead to many, many different permutations depending on what we change and what we target.

I agree.

I also think that if they like any of the young players (OO, JJ, AJ, etc.) and believe in their development, then trading a vet to help shore up another roster hole and allowing the young guy a bigger role is an efficient use of cap, player development and assets.  They may also prefer trading a young guy or picks to bring in a contributor or two.  

I don't think the Quinn system and player development alone will get the Hawks to contender status.

This move would only make sense as part of a larger roster restructuring where the extra annual cap savings was needed.  

Just looking at the remaining Eastern Conference playoff teams has me thinking the Hawks missed a real opportunity.  Is there a team remaining in the east that scares you?  No.  A flawed team like the Knicks or the Heat could conceivably make it to the finals.  If the Hawks could have advanced past the Celtics there was an opportunity there.

A shame the Hawks did not come to play in the first couple games of the Celtics series.  They definitely ran out of gas last night.

I think it is really hard to make the move from a middle of the pack team to a true contender.  Moving on from Nate was the single biggest move in the right direction the team made this season. Other than the coaching upgrade (and I expect that to be more pronounced next season when Quinn can fully implement his packages) the season was a mix of regression (Collins in particular, but also first half Trae), modest player development (OO, AJ, JJ) and some stagnation (Clint, Hunter, etc.).

In my opinion, the Front office has some work to do to take this team to the next level.  It is hard for me to believe the roster as currently constructed is a championship caliber team and so some moves - including trades, are needed (I am not saying a rebuild).  Would be happy to be proven wrong.

I do expect there will be a fair amount of pressure on the front office and coaching staff to win next season - 45+ wins and at least making it to the second round of the playoffs.

If I had to pick a current NBA star to pair with Trae for the next 4 years I would pick Tatum.  He can do a little bit of everything and his ability to do multiple things (from scoring, shooting/spacing, facilitating, defending multiple positions and providing some size) would give the team flexibility to build the roster around those two guys.  Plus Tatum has proven to be fairly durable and the two match-up well from an age perspective so both would be in their prime during the same window.  Embiid would be my second choice.

I know getting him is not possible, but the question was who is the best partner for Trae - I did not take that to mean the guy had to be available. 

I don't think Houston would want JC.  They are going to be all in on Jabari Smith at power forward - not to mention Wemby if they get the first pick.

Houston needs a vet point guard and another vet culture/locker room guy and then hope and pray some of the young guys take a leap.

I think he will be viewed as a reclamation project by someone.  Maybe the Hawks get someone back who is also in need of a change of scenery.