Packfill

On 11/19/2023 at 3:47 PM, Diesel said:

 

I'm not as concerned.   Mainly because we're in a new offense/defense with new personnel playing with him.  

The telling things is;

Last year...  as a team, our total rebounding was 44. 4 rpg.

This year...  as a team, our total rebounding is 44.2 rpg

To me that suggests that CC's numbers may be down but somebody else's is up. 

Collins on a top 20 rebounding list . . .  

29 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Are you wrong ... A little.   Jalen's minutes have doubled and he has already started in three more games than he started last year.  Jalen plays totally different than JC played.   JC was the guy that had been on the team the longest.   Now he's gone.  The whole team has to adjust to playing with Jalen.   And as you can see, the whole team plays differently. 

Think about us before vs. us Now...   Before, we never ran a fast break.  We walked the ball up and played a halfcourt set that was really the 1/5 PNR and what we could create off of that.   Now... we run the ball up every chance we get.    Before, our 4 would come up and set up in the corner like he was doing taxes out there.   Now.. Our 4 brings the ball up and is a passer in the offense. 

Looking at another team with a new system and comparing requires a lot of inspection, critical thinking and critique.

Here's what I mean...

Going for LP to Nate was a change with a changed system.  However, that change was a lot different than the one of going from Nate to Quin.  You can change coaches and change systems and still look relatively the same.   (LP to Nate)  Like... I know that Philly moved from Doc Rivers to Nick Nurse but The offense still works off of Embiid working in the high post.    Nick Nurse adapted the biggest strength of Philly under Doc which was Embiid in the High post.   However, when we look at the real change from Nate to Quin... (I said real because even though Quin was the head man last year, Prunty still ran the offense and defense)...  Trae is not doing the same offense and defense that he was doing last year.  Our offense and defensive changes were like night and day.  So no.. they don't cancel out.  IF I bring in a new system and you still get to do what you're comfortable doing... How long does it take you to adapt?

 

 

 

I would note that Philly is playing very differently this year without Harden then it did last year with him.  

I don't think not having Collins is a big change for the team.  He did not have the ball in his hands much, nor was the offense designed around him.  Not having a high usage player like Harden was for Philly last year, in my view, have a more meaningful impact on the way a team plays.

5 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Nah.

What we're seeing is players learning a new system with new personnel. 

People who says that Trae is on the decline....  Can you admit that Trae is being asked to play the game much more differently than he has played before.    Remember, he used to be the one holding the ball and dribbling and everything was keying off of him.  Now, he's more of a cog in a machine...  Remember, it seemed like he took time off while the team was on defense?  Can you admit that part?   His shooting woes are just woes that he will have to work through.   Some of it is just spot and spacing.  But some of it is the same thing we have seen other Novembers. 

Last night, when Trae allowed his man to blow by and he nailed a three pointer (after having all day) I said.. that's it.   Trae is in the process of adjusting his shooting for space.  Right now in Quin's offense, Trae is not 100% familiar with his spacing.   i.e. how long before he's ran down on by the defense.   You can see it in his shot, he rushes it or he's looking around for the defender.   This is the part of learning a completely new system that a lot of fans don't account for... the familiarity of the last system is gone.   PNR is easy.. he's been doing that since he was in HS.   He knows exactly where the defense is going to be if he's running the 1/5 or 1/4 PNR.   However, what we're doing now... is unfamiliar.  Even if it seems like the same floater..  It's a different offense so he has to feel for the defender because the spacing is different. 

It's OK... I'm going to apply the @JayBirdHawk 20 game rule here.   Especially with a new coach with a new system.   He has to figure out how defenses will react to what we do.. but once he gets it, he will be good.  

Yes the Hawks have a new system, but I must be missing something because their current 8 man rotation consists entirely of players that were with the team last season.  Am I wrong?

Also, the new system "defense" does not apply when you are playing another team that also has a new system.  

All that said, the Hawks lost to a clearly superior team so hard to get too upset.

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

Agreed.  I will also point out that Westbrook's career high TS% is .554%.  Trae's underwhelming last season was .573% (and his career high is .603%).  Very big gap on scoring efficiency.

Trae is hands down the more efficient scorer.  Prime Westbrook did bring some other things to the table though.  Look at the roster of his team that MVP year and it is actually pretty impressive they won what, 47 games?  

15 minutes ago, Plainview1981 said:

Westbrook main success came when he was with KD. It's obvious why.

It's too bad. Despite passing on Luka, I still thought the first two years that Young could be that guy. His persona is something the Hawks have lacked for years. I don't understand why he can't atlesst be more efficient with his shooting. 

I would take the 46% and 36% in 3's he did a few years ago. I think the Hawks could win with him if he accepted being a second option with a SF that can score big. Those don't go on trees. Or atleast two 38%-40% kind of 3pt shooter's. Guys that have that percentage that can go off.

One would argue that they have two in Bogivand Bey... However, This team needs a Gallo player badly. This team misses a guy with Size that has that mix of 3pt and Post up ability. That player doesn't have to play 35 MPG a night, but that is the kind of threat the team has been missing since Gallo has been gone.

 

Also JJ right now is shooting 47% from 3; Murray 38%; Bey 37%; Bogi 35%; and Hunter 34%.  Plenty of shooting around Trae right now, particularly if you take the view that he is a shooter too (and despite his low percentages he has gravity to create open looks for others).

9 minutes ago, Plainview1981 said:

Westbrook main success came when he was with KD. It's obvious why.

 

To be fair I think he won MVP after Durant left.

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Not for me.  It's 11 games in.  

I just need him to be more flexible with his rotations at end of games.

Agree it is still early for Quinn but I think a lot of us hoped that his time coaching last season would speed everything up this season - at least in terms of knowing the players and what he would want his rotations to look like.

2 minutes ago, cam1218 said:

Second home loss to the Knicks. It’s frustrating because I’d like to think we are better than them, but that comes from the playoff series. They have pretty much handled us since then.

That playoff series was a long time ago now, and The Knicks are definitely a different team with Brunson.

Actually both teams have had a fair amount of turnover since.

Thunder still need a power forward who can come in and bang and complement Chet, but their roster is definitely coming together.

Given the season SGA had last year I came into this game wondering whether I would rather build a team around Trae or SGA.  Now I am wondering if I would swap the Hawks roster for the Thunder roster entirely.  Hawks roster is more mature and in a better position to win now (obviously not last night though), whereas Thunder are younger and likely further from being a meaningful post-season team.  

Hawks should be better this season though and who knows if OKC can pay all these guys if they continue to progress (they may need to do another Harden type trade when the second contracts kick in).

Good for the Hawks that Middleton is getting the night off.

Wiseman is terrible.  No thanks.

My overreaction post from the first game is that Charlotte will be lucky to win 35 games this season, maybe far less as I see them unloading vets like Rozier at the deadline to pick up assets to build for the future around Melo, Williams and maybe Miller.  

It is one game but these are exactly the types of games - meaning against mediocre teams - the Hawks need to win if they want to rise above .500.

49 minutes ago, AHF said:

Miller's ranking had nothing to do with his perception on the Hawks.  He just completely didn't think about them.  I can see no possible explanation for him ranking a team like Orlando over the Hawks if he put in any real time thinking that through.

I do not disagree with that.  I was responding to the "disrespect" perception more globally.  That said, there is no doubt that teams that stuck in mediocrity tend to get overlooked in favor of teams that are perceived to be on the rise.  Orlando is one of the teams that a lot of people believe is "on the rise".  They still seem like they are a year away to me, and that is only if they can find a guard that shoot.  I do not know what they were thinking with the Jett Howard pick in the draft.  

If the Hawks win perspectives will change.  Players, coaches, front office staff and fans all respect winning.  

I am fine with Trae and the Hawks needing to earn that respect by winning.  The rest is noise.  

On 10/1/2023 at 2:38 PM, RedDawg#8 said:

I’m really curious about this new look Boston. Jrue brings a lot of the same intangibles that they lost in Smart and Brogdon. But losing Robert Williams can’t be underestimated. 

Boston doesn’t have the same depth anymore. Their frontcourt depth is questionable. You’re relying on Porzingy and a 37 Horford to be in the lineup every night or else get stuck playing G-Leaguers up front.

They are 6 deep on paper but those 6 guys are as good as any lineup you could find. 

I 100% agree on the Celtics lack of depth. That said, in trading Robert Williams and Brogdan it is not like they are trading two guys who are known for durability.  Jrue is getting up there but he seems a lot more likely to play 70+ games then the guys they traded for him.  

They will have some real challenges during the regular season but if they make it to the post-season with their top 6 healthy the gamble pays off.  We shall see.

37 minutes ago, AHF said:

Murray's numbers last year were very similar to All-Stars like Jrue Holiday, DeAaron Fox, and several others.  I fully agree Jokic is the sole superstar on the Nuggets and that the team would be much worse without him.  (As would any team with an MVP level players like him ala the Lakers without LeBron, the Bucks without Giannis, the Warriors without Curry, etc.)

Murray isn't "just a guy."  He is more akin to a Klay Thompson or Jrue Holiday type in terms of impact especially in the playoffs.  That isn't close to Jokic but it also isn't "just a guy."

 

I would go a step further in saying that playoff Jamal Murray - he does have two pretty historic playoff runs in him now - is a second MVP caliber player that makes the Nuggets so dangerous (and ultimately successful).  

Regular season Jamal Murray is for sure much more akin to the Hawks Murray.

12 minutes ago, warcore said:

Yeah I also hate Tatum

In my view Tatum would be the perfect star pairing with Trae.  Both would benefit from each other's offensive gravity and Tatum's diverse skill set gives him lots of ways to impact winning off the ball.

If the Hawks front office decides that they want to roll forward with the current roster with the idea that player development will unlock additional upside in this roster, and that the team has not yet reached an inflection point where they need to flip from being a "development focused" model to  an "it is an all about winning" model, I can understand that, even if it may be disappointing to me.  Continuity could also be good. 

That said, I don't see a contender, but happy to be proven wrong.  If they roll with this current roster and are mediocre again I would expect some pretty drastic roster changes the next season.  They have been mediocre for a couple years now and that is the wrong place to be stuck.

Would be hard to top UCLA's college all-time starting 5:

Gail Goodrich

Reggie Miller

Jamaal Wilks

Bill Walton

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

East appears wide open this year.  Opportunity is absolutely there for the Hawks.  I am taking a wait and see approach though. Hopefully the coaching is good enough to unlock some things because absent that I don't see a roster built to contend for a championship in the near term.  I will be happy to be proven wrong on that.

In any event, it is about time for a new power to arise in the east.  Whether that is a current fringy playoff team like Atlanta or Cleveland, or one of the bottom feeders that finally coalesce around their young talent (Detroit and Orlando, in my view, both have undeniable talent, but that talent needs to convert into production/winning, which is no easy feet).

The west seems stacked to me.

53 minutes ago, AHF said:

The Mavs are really having their struggles figuring out which basket is which.  Seems like they might need to devote some time this summer to the basics.  Perhaps they can review which uniforms are theirs and which are the opponents, the fact that fans out of uniform in the stands aren't other players, and confirm that anywhere with stairs on it is actually not part of the court.  All useful information for teams that struggle with these complex issues.

That is super embarrassing for them.

I will say, I feel like Dallas has collected a very interesting group of young players (Green. Hardy and Lively).  

18 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

That roster would be messy:

PG: Trae Young, Patty Mills, Kobe Bufkin, 
SG: Dejounte Murray, Bogdan Bogdanovich, Garrison Mathews
SF:  AJ Griffin. Mouhamed Gueye
PF: KAT
C - Clint Capela, Onyeka Okongwu

I think Clint would need to be the one going out....KAT/Gobert didn't work, same would hold true for KAT/CC

CC and Gobert is also obviously not going to work for Minny.

23 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Good screw the Mavs.

Blazers doing the Mavs a favor here I think, particularly since Dallas appears to have Williams in the fold.  I am likely an outlier but I think both Green and Hardy have upside for Dallas.

I do note that the market for roll-players is now between $10m and $25m per year (think contracts like this and bigger deals for guys like Bruce Brown and Cam Johnson.

New deals for OO and Bey next year will not be cheap.

2 hours ago, AHF said:

The player doesn't have to maximize his own trade value.  The only thing he has to do is not threaten to breach his contract.  He doesn't have to do anything more or less.

Being honest is not enough if you are threatening to breach your contract.  That is a violation of your contract.

Let's use a real world example.  If Axle Co. signs a contract to be the sole supplier on the Ford F150 at Ford's Detroit plant from 2023 to 2027 for $50M per year, all they have to do is to fill the orders placed by Ford.  If the contract allows Ford to move the production to Toledo, then Axle Co. has to fill the orders in Toledo.  Either way, Ford is required to pay them the $50M per year.  If Ford wants to sell the plant, they don't have to do anything to maximize Ford's sale value.  But if Axle Co. threatens to stop shipping unless they get something to which they aren't contractually entitled, they are violating their contract and have crossed a line.  Ford can sue them and should have both contractual and ethical expectations that Axle Co. won't threaten to stop shipping to illegally stop Ford from selling the Detroit plant to someone they don't like or whatever they want.  (The same applies if they are threatening to send bad product or short Ford on the shipments, etc.)  Axle Co. has a contractual obligation to fulfill their contract with Ford until the contract is expired.

Axle Co. is Dame in this analogy.  Dame is fine to signal to a new team that he doesn't want to be there.  But communicating that he won't give a good faith effort if he is traded somewhere other than Miami crosses a line because he is now threatening to breach his contract.  That isn't about "maximizing his own trade value" it is about not using a threatened breach of contract to damage his trade value.  

(Again, I'm not saying that Lillard has definitively crossed that line.  As I said before, Miami might be spreading rumors that Lillard won't play anywhere other than Miami because they know they can't match the offers other teams would make.  Dame wouldn't be obligated to correct the record in that case, imo, but he couldn't be the one who is the source of that rumor because then he would be communicating a threat to breach his contract.)

Contractual disputes are never that simple.  Axle Co. can effectively tell Ford we cannot supply product to Toledo at the same contract price because of increased shipping costs.  While Axle Co. may not have an explicit right to request a price increase, it is also not going to do something where it is losing money.  It could, for example file for bankruptcy.  Ford needs to weight the potential impact to its business of any non-performance by Axle Co.  If Axle Co. is the exclusive supplier, then Ford has no other way to get the Ford F150 trucks to sell to consumers and so it will lose money and have reputational harm and  litigation, regardless of the outcome, is unlikely to make them whole.  So Ford may make the decision that for business reasons a price adjustment, or other change to the business terms, is preferable to the interruption in business.  

Suppliers, particularly in the auto industry, fail to meet contract terms all the time (think of the supply chain interruption resulting from Covid, or the ship getting stuck in the Suez Canal).  It sucks, but it happens and often times people make concessions because that is the less costly alternative in the long run.  

47 minutes ago, ShooterSays said:

If they couldn’t make the playoffs with Dame, they’re certainly not going to make the playoffs without him and with a rookie PG and Siakam.

If that trade were to go down you have to imagine that Portland's plan would be to flip Siakam and likely Grant at the deadline.