lethalweapon3

Watching SuperUrkel patrol the sidelines in his Clark Kent suit, I can only hope that Dwight’s back issues are legit and, like Chris Webber jokingly wondered the other day, D-12 isn’t hampered by having a certain coach on his back. But even without Dwight, the Hawks will have their hands full if they have to climb out from under an avalanche of threes.Orlando is the only team taking fewer mid-range (10-15 feet) shots (5% of FGAs) than Atlanta (6%). However, unlike the Hawks (27% of FGAs from 16-23 feet), they’re comfortable enough with their collective range to limit their long two-pointers (17% of FGAs from 16-23 feet, second lowest in the NBA). In a nutshell, it’s either inside or outside for the Magic offense.And without Dwight, there should be very little inside. Dwight is not the only poor free throw shooter in Central Florida. Fantasy-team-killer Jason Richardson has gone from a pedestrian 70% shooting over his career to a barely-making-it-across-the-street 57%. There is no reason he should be getting cherry-pick buckets under the rim. Nothing easy!The Magic are 26-4 when ringing up 20 or more assists and 8-19 when getting less than 20, including 0-11 when they get 15 or fewer. Forwards disrupting kickout passes from Hedo, Jameer and company to Ryan Anderson, J.J. Redick et al. will make a huge difference in the outcome of the game.It’s about three-point defense. The Magic are 17-1 when they hit 12 or more three-point shots, 18-3 when making ten or more assisted threes, and they’re 22-3 when shooting more than 40% from three-point range. Naturally, threes still make up over a third of their offense (35%, by far tops in the league).It’s also about possession control. Hack-a-Dwight is not a strategy that’s proven to work. Orlando is 7-1 this season when they get more than 30 free throw attempts. Slowing down the clock seemingly gives the Magic more opportunities to make up for the missed freebies with three-pointers. For similar reasons, jacking up shots early in the clock doesn’t help Magic foes either. The Magic are 8-0 when opposing teams shoot 90 or more field goals against them (only one of those games going into overtime). The Magic have the highest differential in turnover rate (+2 turnovers per 100 possessions) than any Eastern Conference team. But the Hawks need to put a lid on their helter-skelter transition play coming off of turnovers, making sure they set up good, sensible shots instead. No need to rush! Because limiting their chances limits their points. Only one Magician among the top 11 scorers, other than Dwight Howard, is shooting above 44 percent… and it’s not a forward, but the great Von Wafer (47.9%).Finally, it’s about a well-executed offense without the goofy turnovers. Orlando is 16-0 when keeping opponents under 18 assists. Paging Jeff Teague, paging Jeff Teague…Teague will probably get a chance to go, once again, against former Demon Deacon teammate Ish Smith, who seems to have on a different NBA jersey every time the Hawks see him. Ish played the point guard role more favorably during Teague’s final season at Wake, where Jeff was left primarily to handle shooting guard duties at the start of the season, until Ish got hurt and Jeff blossomed. Ish has now supplanted Chris Duhon as the first-option point guard off the bench, while Duhon has gotten the Ivan Johnson treatment as of late for missing practices.Oh, and Ivan, if you’re reading this, feel free to join Hawksquawk Chat tonight!~lw3

I think the Hawks helped the C's lock down whatever the record is. 2-for-20.~lw3

Or not... ~lw3

Will the Celtics be tired? After three days of rest, the Hawks will await the arrival of a Boston team for the latter’s sixth game in eight days, also their seventh straight game against a current playoff team. No doubt the Celtics are flying high after convincingly dousing the Heat in South Beach last night. The big change in the Celtics’ lineup since last we saw them is the transfer of Big Three mainstay Ray Allen to the bench, bringing Avery Bradley into the starting lineup. This was done originally while Ray Allen was nursing a sore ankle, and initial replacement Mickael Pietrus injured his head in a scary collision in Philly. But Doc Rivers decided to stick with this Rajon Rondo-Bradley-Paul Pierce-Brandon Bass-Kevin Garnett lineup, with Allen begrudgingly accepting the late season change once he returned. Thus far, it’s working swimmingly well for the C’s. They are 8-1 over the ten-game stretch where Bradley is the starting shooting guard (Allen started in a loss to the Spurs last week). In their short time together (136 minutes through Sunday), the Bradley-inclusive lineup scored 108.2 points per 100 possessions while constricting opponents to 81.0 points per 100 possessions. Bradley has provided 12.2 PPG and 51.9 FG% over the last ten games to complement his stifling defense. http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/40245/killer-lineup-the-celtics-new-look The Hawks must be less generous and minimize the Celtics’ points scored off turnovers, while generating buckets out of Celtic gaffes on the other end. Joe Johnson shot well in the last Hawks-Celtics matchup but had one assist and seven turnovers. Conversely, Josh Smith struggled with his shots but contributed eight assists with just a single turnover. 22 of Boston’s 79 points came on possessions after turnovers, compared to 17 of the Hawks’ 76 points. In the pivotal fourth quarter, the Celtics did not turn the ball over once while the Hawks coughed it up five times. Allen (11.4 PPG, 42.0 FG%, 40.7 3-PT%) has mostly struggled to adjust to condensed minutes and less floor time alongside Rondo, Garnett, and Pierce. For the season, he’s still second only to Stephen Curry as a three-point threat, but his efficiency has tapered off as the season wears on. While he’d much prefer to be starting as the Celtics head toward their playoff run, he’s acknowledged that the current rotation works well right now. Defensive rebounding should not be a problem for the Hawks. At home, the Celtics average just 7.8 offensive rebounds per game, last in the league by far. With their moderately low pace and lack of frontcourt help for Garnett (Bass and Pierce are usually outside the paint on offense), they’ve averaged just 6.7 offensive RPGs since the All-Star Break. They’re the only NBA team grabbing less than 20 percent of the offensive rebounding chances (19.6%; the Odom-less Mavs are second-lowest at 23.1%). To keep the pressure off the frontcourt decimated by injuries all season (Jeff Green, Chris Wilcox, Jermaine O’Neal), they’ll need Cavaliers castaway Ryan Hollins to learn quickly and on-the-fly. Hollins’ contributions through eight appearances are unremarkable thus far, but Garnett is tutoring him in practice on the finer points of pick-and-roll defense. It is hoped that Hollins will be able to unseat Greg Stiemsma as the first center option off the bench, which will be a tall order (51.6 FG%, 2.1 BPG and 4.0 RPG since March for Stiemsma in 18 MPG). Fairly handcuffed in the Celtics victory in Atlanta on March 19 (4-for-14 shooting and 4 turnovers), Pierce has been on a steady scoring tear (22.6 PPG on 48.7% shooting in the last 12 games). His passing is not where it was earlier in the season (2.8 APG in that 12-game stretch, 5.1 APG before). He is also not a threat on the offensive glass, with just five offensive boards total over the past month. Someone has to step out to contest Bass’ jump shots. He is shooting an impressive 47.9% from 10 feet of the rim out to the three-point line, compared to 46.4% within 10 feet. Bass’ assist rate (7 assists per 100 possessions) is pretty low, so there’s little risk of trouble should he pass up the long-range shot. Rondo continues to dish and dish some more. His 18 assists in last night in Miami was his 18th consecutive game of double-digit assists. The last NBA player to record 10+ assists at least 18 straight times was John Stockton with 29 straight in 1991-92. Off-topic: Stockton started that string after a nine-assist game broke a 20-straight run of double-digit assists, which in turn began after a nine-assist game broke another 14-straight run... so with two more dimes Stockton could have had a 65-game string. Armed with healthier backcourt support, Jeff Teague needs not to gamble on Rondo at the perimeter and depend on help, but should strive to stick with Rondo on his forays into the paint. Playing aggressively and drawing judicious fouls when attempting to deny shots in the paint should not be much of an issue, as Rondo is shooting just 59% on free throws and just 52% on shots within 10 feet. Celtics’ opponents try to attack them with mid-range (10-15 foot) jumpers (9.4 per game, most in the league). The emphasis should be on the word “try”; Boston keeps opponents to 33.9% shooting at this range (lowest in the league). Meanwhile, the ridiculous 30.1 opponent FG% from three-point range might be the lowest on record, at least for this millennium (The 2004 champion Pistons gave up 30.2%). If we’re taking shots at this range, have a capable rebounder at-the-ready, and have the shooter primed to get back on the other end right away to minimize transition baskets. Smith has to find a way to create better havoc in the paint and get to the line versus the Celtics. Including his last game against the C's, the Hawks are 1-4 when Josh fails to register a single free throw attempt. Go Hawks! ~lw3

Fifth place by ourselves... thank you Wizards!~lw3

I wondered this aloud too, and the best I can come up with is it eliminates the possibility of one Division Champ eliminating another in the opening round. If they're going to do that, then the NBA's seeding plan at least works better than the NHL, where Division Champs get 1-2-and-3 seeds regardless of what anybody else does.Promising no worse than 4th eliminates the possibility of teams getting punished for being in ultra-competitive divisions by winning their divisions but having to settle for a 6th, 7th, or 8th seed and playing a team that ran away with its division only because its fellow-division competitors sucked.I'm also thinking it gives NBA playoff teams that know they're out of the running for the division (like the Hawks) something else to fight for during the remainder of the regular season (Homecourt advantage in the first round), other than just getting in.~lw3

http://espn.go.com/dallas/nba/story/_/id/7791431/dallas-mavericks-lamar-odom-sever-ties-immediately Meanwhile, the Mavs have sputtered to eighth place even without him, 1.5 games away from ninth place. Only what was left of the Chicago Bulls in 1998-99 (Dickey Simpkins, anyone?) failed to make the playoffs one year after winning it all. Can Brandan Wright, Sean Williams, Yi Jianlian, and Brian Cardinal step up enough to keep Dallas a postseason threat?~lw3

Hawks' magic number for yet another return to the playoffs is 5 (combo of Hawks wins and Bucks losses the rest of the way). Will today mark a changing of the guard? Antoine Walker (2005) was the last player other than Joe Johnson to lead the Atlanta Hawks in scoring for the season. But going into tonight’s matchup in Charlotte, Josh Smith (18.95 PPG) is now within a hair of Joe Johnson (18.96 PPG) for the top spot among scorers for the team. Joe has been under his current scoring average in the last three games, while Josh has exceeded his own average in each of the last ten games. While the Bobcats will be returning home from a 4-game road trip, Eduardo Najera will be joining Orlando’s Hedo Turkoglu at the Headbanger’s Ball. An elbow he absorbed from Jon Brockman last night in Milwaukee fractured the frontal lobe on his skull. He’ll certainly miss some time if not the rest of the season. Even with bone fragments instead of Carolina in his mind, Najera managed just two fewer points (none) than the rest of his teammates on the bench (2 combined points on 1-for-6 shooting) did in the five-point setback to the Bucks, their tenth straight loss. Coach Paul Silas rotated in just five players for brief spells, none for more than 15 minutes. DeSagana Diop and Reggie Williams, the latter of which struggled with his scoring as a starter in his last couple games, were DNP-CD’d, while Corey Maggette (Achilles) and D.J. Augustin (knee tendinitis) were held inactive to recuperate their injuries. Silas says he just wants Augustin “to stay out until he gets well.” If only to give the appearance of having enough active bodies to play, Maggette could be activated for tonight’s game. The effect of getting Byron Mullens to bang inside more, alongside Bismack Biyombo, appears to be working. He dropped 31 points on the Bucks last night, and both he and Biyombo garnered 14 rebounds. Perhaps swilling too much of Milwaukee’s finest products, Scott Skiles remarked that Mullens “looked like Bill Russell out there.” The 7-foot Mullens still jacks up too many outside shots (1-for-4 from three-point territory yesterday), but that’s acceptable on a team whose guards aren’t faring any better (the other Bobcats were 1-for-8). Biyombo bruised a hip early in the Bucks game but returned and played well. Every Bobcat starter got at least seven boards last night, as Charlotte produced a season high of 57 total rebounds. The Cats have only surpassed 50 rebounds three times this year, winning once and keeping the other losses within 5 points. The Hawks have allowed more than 45 rebounds on 14 occasions this season, going 3-11 in those games, but have not exceeded 45 opponent rebounds in a non-overtime game since the February 29 loss to Golden State. Charlotte will need that frontcourt presence to have a chance every night, especially considering the bloodletting in the paint (60 points) they gave up in Atlanta on Wednesday. Derrick Brown has probably shown enough with his defense and athleticism around the rim, relative to Reggie Williams, to unseat Williams the rest of the way as a starting small forward. Without Augustin, Brown will be needed not only to help with rebounding but passing duties as well. When Augustin was throttled by Rajon Rondo two weeks ago, Brown came in and had seven assists with just one turnover as the Bobcats closed an 18-point gap against the Celtics, only to lose by five. Kemba Walker was on the losing end of 30 games over three years at UConn, compared to 46 games (and counting) through four months of this lockout-shortened season in Charlotte. He and the Bobcats will need to do a better job to force errors, as the Hawks only turned the ball over a season-low 6 times on Wednesday. Jeff Teague is taking better shots of late, and had only two turnovers in each of his last three games. Go Hawks! ~lw3

http://www.nba.com/2012/news/04/04/pierce-durant/index.html The League's excusplanation: As noted already here, the Hawks went 11-8 while Smoove averaged 23.9 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 4.5 assists. Smith recorded eight games of 25 or more points (42% of games, compared to 35% for PP). Smith matched Pierce's "season high" for blocks twice in the month of March, and met or exceeded Pierce's "season high" for rebounds eight times (19, 18, 17, 13, 12 twice, 11, 10). He exceeded his own season high with 32 points on March 21, then did it again on March 31 with 34 points. And none of these "season high" accomplishments came "at Charlotte." Smith carried much of the offensive load without Joe Johnson around for 4 of those 19 games. The Hawks went 3-1 without Joe, with that one loss being a respectable three-point loss at Miami. Pierce had Kevin Garnett (17.2 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists) paired with him for all of his games. Further, as Sekou Smith noted in that "MVP Next 5" article, Pierce had not Jeff Teague, but this guy, at his and KG's disposal: Did they even get the right Celtic? Back to the excusplanation: What was is that the Church Lady used to ask? That song, "One of These Things is Not Like the Other..." comes to mind. ~lw3

Hawks playoffs magic number is 6 (Combo of Hawks wins plus Bucks losses from here on out). If the Detroit Pistons have any idea what tanking is, they’re not quite clear on the concept. They’ve rattled off 5 wins in their last six games, rolling out of March like a lion against versus lottery contestants Washington (twice), Charlotte, and Cleveland, and snared a home win against the Tragic Kingdom. Their recent 17-13 run also includes wins over Atlanta, Boston (twice), Milwaukee, and the Lakers. Lawrence Frank attributes the stretch of good fortune to a commitment to improving team defense. They were 28th ranked in points-per-possession defensive rating in January, but improved to 17th by February and moved into 8th by the end of March. Ex-Hawk Mo Evans has probably learned by now how Coach Frank’s Pistons have been getting it done. http://www.nba.com/p...ns_120401a.html Greg Monroe is the GM you don’t want to bailout, not with uncontested shots at the rim. He takes more at-rim shots than anyone in the league (about 7.4 per game), more than Dwight Howard or Blake Griffin, but his shooting percentage from that close in (60%) isn’t terribly ferocious. Any more than 2 feet away from the hoop, Monroe is shooting only 39%. Monroe is being pushed by Frank to be a more legitimate presence on the other end of the floor. Under no circumstance should a team featuring Ben Wallace be sitting in last place for blocks per game, but that’s where they stand at 4.0 blocks per game for the second straight season, with no one averaging more than 1.0 swats. Big Ben leads the team averaging 0.8 blocks in just under 16 minutes of action. They’re also last in the league in defensive rebounds per game, reliant on the likes of Jonas Jerebko to help Monroe. Zaza and Josh should be able to feast on the glass as Monroe has little depth behind him to risk foul trouble. Charlie Villanueva has that not-invited-to-the-office-taco-party look on his face. The former 7th overall pick from 2005 and third-highest-salaried player on Detroit’s roster ($8 million with a player option for $8.5 million) has been pushed out of the rotation as Coach Frank prefers to go with bigs that are a little more likely take sane shots and play some defense. Al Horford’s Olympic qualifier teammate has been back with the Pistons since rehabbing an ankle injury sidelined him until early March. He’s played just over 15 minutes this season, including his last game, a six minute stint in New York on March 24th where he took six shots in six minutes (made one). Is anyone going to slow down Jason Maxiell this time around? J-Max’s top two scoring efforts (19 points apiece) and his highest rebounding tally (12 boards) this season are against the Hawks. Over the course of his career, Atlanta is the only opponent where he’s averaged double digits (10.5 PPG, second highest being 8.2 PPG versus Golden State). He should have a lot of Marvin and Ivan to deal with when the ball comes to him. Go Hawks! ~lw3

Not to jinx him again, but is Smoove on track to be on the All-Defensive Team again?He's fourth overall in points-per-possession defensive rating, and leads all NBA forwards in defensive win shares (second overall). He's fifth in defensive rebounds and eighth in defensive rebound percentage. And he's the only forward in the top ten in blocked shots per game (eighth overall).I think they'll give either one of Iguodala/Brand and Garnett first-team for forwards, but Smoove should probably make second-team at least.~lw3

Paul Pierce??? smh! Well that poll was a bunch of #fail I guess! LOL Didn't even get the right Celtic!~lw3

Harped on this in another thread, but just added a poll pre-Bobcats game. (Should be an announcement in less than an hour from now...)http://www.nba.com/video/channels/award_nominees/2012/03/24/20120324_kia_smith_nominee.nba/(Aside #1: is there an easy way to embed videos from NBA.com? Ideally, I'd like it to play just the ONE video rather than try to loop through the entire NBA.com catalogue.)Josh is one of four players with weblinks to videos under the Kia NBA Performance Awards page (http://www.nba.com/awards/2012/) for "March Nominees" (along with Messrs. James, Howard, and Rose -- the latter of which only played 7 games last month).Given the opportunity to kiss up to LeBron tonight (aside from being first in points and steals in the East last month), I figure he'll probably get the award again. But Josh is awfully close this time around, if he doesn't win it.March 2012 stats for the likely nominees, D-Rose excluded:* LeBron James(51.1 FG%, 74.0 FT%; 24.8 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 6.1 APG, 2.3 SPG, 0.9 BPG, 3.2 TOPG; HEAT 10-6 incl. 3 games without Chris Bosh)* Dwight Howard(63.8 FG%, 47.5 FT%; 23.1 PPG, 13.1 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.7 SPG, 1.8 BPG, 3.1 TOPG; Magic 9-7 amid trade talk hype)* Josh Smith(45.4 FG%, 72.1 FT%; 23.9 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.5 SPG, 1.4 BPG, 2.3 TOPG; Hawks 11-8 incl. 4 games without Joe Johnson)* Kevin Garnett(54.6 FG%, 81.6 FT%; 17.2 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 1.8 TOPG; Celtics 12-5 to take over first in Atlantic Division)* Carlos Boozer(55.1 FG%, 73.5 FT%; 15.7 PPG, 8.4 PPG, 2.1 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 1.8 TOPG; Bulls 13-3 incl. 9 games without Derrick Rose)I mentioned this on another thread, but since the start of the 2007-2008 season, either Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Derrick Rose, or Dwyane Wade has won player-of-the-month honors in the Eastern Conference, with two singular exceptions (Joe Johnson in March 2008; Hedo Turkoglu in April 2008). During that same span, there have been 12 winners for the monthly Western Conference honor.(Aside #2: Minnesota fans had a minor freakout when they saw Kevin Love not listed as a nominee on that Kia page, but the NBA confirms he's a nominee for tonight's unveiling during the Kia NBA Shootaround on ESPN2 at 7:30 PM EST).~lw3

Maggette is out until at least next week with a strained Achilles (now there's a "bug" that's going around the league a lot lately). Augustin may have limited mintues as he's recuperating tendinitis in his left knee. And Thomas apparently had a rough collision with Ben Uzoh late in last night's game at Toronto -- no concussion confirmed -- so he's questionable at the moment.~lw3

“With the first pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, the Washington Wizards select Anthony Davis, of the University of Kentucky!” Upon hearing those words a couple weeks ago, Paul Silas awoke, drenched in a cool sweat. The race to the bottom of the NBA Lottery Odds pile has begun, and the Bobcats hope to play spirited, energetic, encouraging and, ultimately, losing basketball the rest of the way. Silas knows that he’s not going anywhere, not unless John Calipari wants to give the old resuscitate-a-dormant-NBA-franchise thing another try. Even though getting one more win to avoid the worst season in NBA history would be nice, the Bobcats are already playing for next season, lest they give their division foe an improved chance to pick from the top of the rookie litter. So, it’s youth movement time in the Queen City. Corey Maggette? Rest up, old fella, ‘cause it’s Reggie Williams Time. D.J. Augustin? Thank you for your time in service, but it’ll be Kemba Walker at the helm from here on out. Gana Diop? We’ve seen what you can do. Now, sit back and enjoy Bismack Biyombo doing his thing. We may even get to see Silas’s son Stephen at the coaching reins, as the progeny has been green-lighted to serve as interim coach once a week. Poppa Silas and company hope to at least sneak out one more game to avoid infamy for all-time futility, but the true focus for his staff in April is to assess whether or not the Kids Are Alright: Unlike our past few tete-a-tetes with the ‘Cats, we won’t have Boris Diaw to kick around anymore. The pass-first photographer-extraordinaire who was, by default, one of their top rebounders was bought out of his hefty contract and is now treading water along the Riverwalk with the Spurs. His nonchalant attitude and production became all the more expendable with the emergence of Byron “don’t call me B.J.” Mullens. Silas is trying to force Mullens to use the remainder of the year to craft his inside game, as the effectiveness of the outside jumpshot he relies upon has fallen precipitously (now down around 36%) since lighting up the Hawks with 17 and 21 points in two January games. Silas is still trying to find the right balance with Walker and Augustin, and he may be getting closer to figuring it out. Walker has not found his offense but is distributing well (7.0 assists and 1.5 turnovers in his last two games, albeit at Detroit and Toronto), while Augustin’s last couple games has him putting up 17.0 points, 8.5 assists and just 2.0 turnovers as he transitions back to the bench role. At least one or the other guard has produced a minimum of 5 assists in every contest since March 15, and neither has turned the ball over more than 3 times since March 17. They’d have many more assists if they could find somebody who can make a basket. Charlotte is dead last in FG% (41%) and 3-Point FG% (30%), and the only team below the 50% mark in total shooting percentage (48%). Guard the three-point shot effectively, and you’ve won half the battle; the Bobcats are a .500 team (5-5) when they shoot more than 40% from three-point range, and of course 2-39 when they don’t. Having Mullens playing more aggressively upfront with Biyombo is hoped to improve their woeful rebounding numbers, as there are plenty of offensive putbacks to be had. Opponents are relentless in attacking the rim (about 19 at-rim field goals per game, most in the league), so their presence and activity is sorely needed. Conversely, Bobcat foes don’t waste much time taking long jumpers (21% of all opponent FGAs, fewest in the league) against Charlotte. Speaking of long jumpers, like an infinitely-more productive forward that we all know and love, leading scorer Corey Maggette has found himself rather smitten with them. He lofts up about 5 per game from that range and is now down to around 27% shooting them. It’s when he steps behind the 3-point line that he becomes a more serious threat (a modest 36%). But when your top scorer is putting out 37% field goal shooting overall on the season, things are not going well for you. Second-leading scorer Gerald Henderson is marginally better with the long-range jumpshots, taking 6.2 per game (third most in the league, tied with a certain Hawk) and shooting 39% from that range. As a squad, the ‘Cats take at least 3 more jumpers from 16-to-23 feet out, about 35% of their offensive arsenal, than the next closest NBA team. Alas, their FG% at this distance (36%) ranks 24th. Their short-range jumpers are nothing to write home about, either. Since March 1, they’re hitting at a 44-for-137 clip (32%) at just 3-to-9 feet from the hoop. As you’re eating your Lucky Charms, check your milk carton for the face of Tyrus Thomas. The former fourth-overall draft pick has been seen less and less, as he’s struggled with his conditioning and turned in some brutal shooting performances for a starting forward. Now on the bench, his minutes are getting increasingly eroded by the likes of Derrick Brown and D.J. White. Thomas was offered no more than 6 minutes in last night’s close contest with Toronto, ironically the last team Charlotte defeated back on March 17. He always seems to relish a matchup with Josh Smith, so we’ll see if he’s activated more tonight. To help you lose a little sleep at night, a future (high-lottery-protected until 2016) first-round pick goes to Chicago in the deal Charlotte made for this guy (What, Chicago? Acie Law and Flip Murray didn’t suffice?) Go Hawks! ~lw3

This is SO not the direction I expected this thread to be headed! lolReserving my "ha-ha!" chuckles at Holly for when the Hawks clinch... AGAIN...~lw3

Yep! you got it!~lw3

AHF got the idea above. I attempted to clarify upfront that "Biggest Leads/Deficits" (largest margins during the course of the game, the subject of these stats) and "Margins of Victory/Loss" (final margins at the END of the game, as you presented) are not the same stats. Here are those "Biggest Deficits" during the eight home losses this season, some of which you mentioned, all of them double-digits: (chronological order) Miami - 13 points Memphis - 30 points Philadelphia - 20 points Phoenix - 22 points Miami (again) - 32 points Golden State - 13 points Boston - 15 points Chicago - 21 points Again, this was when the opponents' leads were greatest DURING the game, not at the final buzzer. ~lw3

Correcting (in bold) to discount those "wire-to-wire" wins and losses. ~lw3

Almost exactly right, with the exception that "less than 10" meant opponents' biggest leads were some number between 0 and 9. Correcting my last response, as you allude to, games where opponents' never even get a lead (the "wire-to-wire" wins) ARE counted in that 14-0 figure. Subtracting the wire-to-wire wins, the Hawks are 11-0 this year, 16-2 last year when opponents' biggest leads are in single-digits. As it turns out, the "scrambling to win close games at home" phenomenon is not significantly better than last year, but it's noteworthy that they haven't lost one of those games yet this season. [/jinx] ~lw3

Perhaps someone brighter than I can explain what the bold part below means? At the risk of further befuddling, it's probably not some super-extraordinary stat (i.e., something unique to the Hawks). "They're undefeated IF..." can come across as some kind of a Rorschach test. From one positive perspective, the Hawks are consistently winning home games under the LD regime... so long as they keep opponents' leads reasonably close (32-2, 22-2, combining those last two seasons at Philips when the Hawks' foes get ahead by no more than 9 points... not even counting their wire-to-wire victories when opponents never get a lead CORRECTION BELOW, IN RESPONSE TO atlbraves93). Having no problem coming back when behind by small margins allows them to sustain home records and overall records that are (likely) above-par compared the rest of the league. The contrarian view would say it's not happening enough, certainly not enough to push the Hawks into the upper pantheon when there's championship-contention dialogue around the league. There were 11 times this year, 21 times last year, that they allowed visitors to stretch the lead to the point where they find themselves scrambling at some stage of the game. Sometimes it's early, sometimes it's one of those bad third quarters, sometimes it's when the game gets away from them in crunch time. That's close to half of all home games, and partially explains the queasy feeling many Hawks fans have when the hometown heroes too often fail to put up much of a competitive fight. Yes, they're doing a better job of bouncing back in some of these games -- but for a team known to suffer from consumer-confidence issues, should there ever really be a time when you're on your home floor and down 16 to the Cavaliers, 15 to the pre-Monta Bucks, or 18 to the Timberwolves? ~lw3

I was tinkering with the “Biggest Leads” data on NBA.com for the Hawks, just comparing this season’s games (54 so far) with last year’s 82. “Biggest Leads” is not to be confused with margins of victory/loss, it’s just the furthest in either direction the team or its opponents stretch the lead. Looking at the data and the impacts on wins and losses, the findings are a mixed bag but mostly positive. So far: *They’re playing more competitively at home than they did last year. The average “largest lead” for the Hawks at Philips is currently 12.9 (11.9 in 2010-11). The average hole they’ve had to dig out from under (“largest deficit”) at The Highlight Factory this year is 10.4 (13.1 last season). *Last season, the Hawks dug themselves into bigger holes, on average, at home (13.1) compared to away games (10.8 ). Thus far, that phenomenon has flipped this season. Their average “largest deficit” is 10.4 at home and 11.5 on the road. *All games (home and away) put together, the average “largest lead” (11.8 ) is about the same as last year (11.6) while the mean “largest deficit” is 11.0 (11.9 last year). *This season, Atlanta has yet to lose a game at home where they’ve been down by less than 10 points (14-0; last year 18-2), or any games where they’ve had the lead themselves by 10 points or more (12-0; last year 18-5). *The Hawks have almost as many Comeback Wins from 10+ points down (7), as they had under last year’s 82-game season (8 ). Their four road Comeback Wins from 10+ points down is double last season’s tally. To date, their largest comeback win at home this season eliminated an 18-point deficit (Minnesota), while their biggest comeback win was their last road win in Washington, erasing a 16-point deficit. In 2010-11, Atlanta’s biggest home-game comeback win was against Chicago (19 points), and they came back from 16 down for their largest comeback road victory against the Clippers. *The four Losses with Blown Leads of 10+ points in 2011-12 have all been on the road, equal to the number of blown road games last year. As noted already, they have no such losses at home yet (they had five last season). This season, the largest blown-leads leading to losses at home was eight (each of the last three home losses, to Golden State, Boston, and Chicago). The Bulls also erased a 19-point deficit to defeat the Hawks in Chicago. Last year’s worst blown-lead in a home loss was 22 points against Stephen Jackson and the buzzer-beating Bobcats, while the worst on the road was at Houston (just 14 points). *The Hawks have an equivalent number of wire-to-wire victories (five games never losing the lead) to last year, and only two wire-to-wire losses (never holding the lead) compared to six last year. *Under adverse situations on the road, based on winning percentage, the Hawks have played better -- when their maximum lead is less than 10 points (3-11, versus 3-17 last year), and when falling behind by 10 or more points (4-12, versus 2-17 last year). *Based on winning percentage, the Hawks have been less capable of coming out on top in advantageous situations on the road. They’re 10-3 when keeping their opponents’ largest lead under 10 points (18-4 last year), and they’re 11-4 in games where they get ahead by 10 or more points (17-4 last year). *The Hawks have been more likely to fall behind significantly this season, but have been more proficient in scrambling back to win… as long as they keep the deficit under 20 points. They have fallen behind by 15+ points 21 times this season (5-16) and 26 times last year (4-22) but have already pulled out more comeback victories. Atlanta has gotten down by 20+ points ten times already this year through 54 games (0-10, including 5 home losses) compared to 13 times over 82 games last season (0-13, including 8 losses at home). *The Hawks have been less likely to get substantial leads this season. There were 16 instances where Atlanta had leads of 15+ points (15-1), compared to 26 times last season (25-1). The Hawks obtained leads of 20+ points eight times so far this year (8-0), and on 14 occasions in 2010-11 (13-1). I have neither the time (nor the stomach) to compare Atlanta’s lead/deficit record with other teams, unless someone knows a better game-log source featuring maximum lead/deficits, so I don’t have to troll each game summary, but I would be curious to see how their records match up with other Eastern playoff contenders. 2011-2012 HAWKS (through 54 games): POINT DIFFERENTIALS - Avg. Max Deficit (Season): 11.0 Avg. Max. Lead (Season): 11.8 Avg. Max. Home Deficit: 10.4 Avg. Max. Home Lead: 12.9 Avg. Max. Road Deficit: 11.5 Avg. Max. Road Lead: 10.8 WIN/LOSS RECORDS - Deficits <Ten: 27 games (24-3, 88.9%); 14-0 (100.0%) at Home; 10-3 (76.9%) on Road Deficits >=Ten: 27 games (7-20, 25.9%); 3-8 (27.3%) at Home; 4-12 (25.0%) on Road Deficits>=Fifteen: 21 games (5-16, 23.8%) Deficits>=Twenty: 10 games (0-10, 0.0%) Leads<Ten: 27 games (8-19, 29.6%); 5-8 (38.5%) at Home; 3-11 (21.4%) on Road Leads>=Ten: 27 games (23-4, 85.2%); 12-0 (100.0%) at Home; 11-4 (73.3%) on Road Leads>=Fifteen: 16 games (15-1, 93.8%) Leads>=Twenty: 8 games (8-0, 100.0%) 2010-2011 HAWKS (82 games): POINT DIFFERENTIALS - Avg. Max Deficit (Season): 11.9 Avg. Max. Lead (Season): 11.6 Avg. Max. Home Deficit: 13.1 Avg. Max. Home Lead: 11.9 Avg. Max. Road Deficit: 10.8 Avg. Max. Road Lead: 11.3 WIN/LOSS RECORDS - Deficits <Ten: 42 games (36-6, 85.7%); 18-2 (90.0%) at Home; 18-4 (81.8%) on Road Deficits >=Ten: 40 games (8-32, 20.0%); 6-15 (28.6%) at Home; 2-17 (10.5%) on Road Deficits>=Fifteen: 26 games (4-22, 15.4%) Deficits>=Twenty: 13 games (0-13, 0.0%) Leads<Ten: 38 games (9-29, 23.7%); 6-12 (33.3%) at Home; 3-17 (15.0%) on Road Leads>=Ten: 44 games (35-9, 79.5%); 18-5 (78.3%) at Home; 17-4 (81.0%) on Road Leads>=Fifteen: 26 games (25-1, 96.2%) Leads>=Twenty: 14 games (13-1, 92.9%) ~lw3

Possibly, as OKC faces the HEAT (*cough**Lebron**cough*) on Wednesday night (ESPN2). No reason to hold out until Wednesday if someone other than LBJ was winning it.~lw3

Is it safe to congratulate coachx yet? What a close race, as it turned out!~lw3

Also saw on Twitter (via Wolves' PR guy... Kevin Love is a probable lock to win Western POTM) that they plan to announce the POTMs during Kia NBA Shootaround on ESPN Wednesday evening, although I imagine if @hawksprguy gets the info that it's Smoove in advance, A$G will probably leak the announcement out shortly before the national announcement.~lw3