REHawksFan

Sorry, I have no idea what to title this post.  

I was thinking about the ongoing conversation around Trae or No Trae and how each scenario impacts the Offense and Defense and it got me thinking about whether we could have a league average D with Trae at the PG.  I was also intrigued by the thought that the biggest issue with the Hawks has been the demise of the C position and, specifically, Clint's rapid decline.  So I went back and looked at some historical numbers and here's what I found.  I'll present the data for discussion and then maybe add some commentary at the end. 

This shows where the Hawks ranked in pts per game, per 100 poss, in pace, and in Reb% and where Clint ranked in Reb%, Blocks, Def FG% allowed, and FG% Differential.  For Clint, I used minimum of 50 games in each season.  The highlighted season is both the ECF run and Clint's first season as a Hawk. 

On the chart above, the Pace jumped out at me so I charted the pace vs DRtg over each of Trae's 6 seasons.  Here's that chart:

Unsurprisingly, the Hawks are horrible defensively when playing with pace.  Now look at this:

This chart is from this year.  With Trae, they play at the 3rd fasted pace in the NBA.  Without, the they play at the 9th slowest pace.  I know there are other variables like injuries to other players and smaller sample size, but the numbers are pretty glaring to me.  Interestingly, the ORtg stays about the same relative to the rest of the NBA.  It's just the DRtg that plummets when we play fast.  

So now I'll point back to the green highlighted line in the first chart.  In the ECF run year, the Hawks, led by Trae and ELITE Center play by Clint, had the 8th slowest pace and ranked 18th in DRtg, essentially the same as this year when slowing things down.  Also, in the ECF year with the slower pace, they still managed to rank 9th in ORtg.  And that was with Trae still learning and growing as an offensive player.  

It seems to me that if we can get elite center play and then slow the pace down a bit, we could hit the happy middle ground of Elite Offense and Average Defense.  

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

I think we mentioned it that a lot of players have gotten better of late. Clearly better, in particular Bruno and Vit 

Vit still feels like an end of bench guy to me.  Bruno, however, seems like he's played himself into a backup 5 role.  Next year could look something like this?  

PG:  Trae / Kobe / Vit

SG:  Bigger defensive Wing Draft Pick / Bogie / Kobe

SF:  JJ / DH / Bey

PF:  OO / Vet / Mo

C :  7-footer Draft Pick / Bruno / OO

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

The most important part is the center. The year we went to the ECF, we were winning with Tony Snell and Solo as wings. 

So imagine how good they can be with significantly better wings and a good bench IF they get another dominant center.  They just need the dominant center and to actually spend money on a bench.  

Hawks were +7 on 3pt makes, hitting 18 for the game. Shot 50% overall from 3pt. The game becomes A LOT easier when you do that. 

3 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I can't see the article.

Which guards? What is their defense like? Probably an issue.

I think it's more about assuming we 'Trade DJM' 

Collier at 10 and Castle at 17

7 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

 

 

Dude has us taking 2 guards.  We got too many as it is.  And so few centers but sure, we're taking 2 guards and no center in a center heavy draft.  The national media don't know or care about the Hawks.  

13 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

70 Games completed:

36% and over

Garrison - 43.9% 

Hunter - 40.2%

Bogi - 37.4% 

Trae - 37.1% 

DJ - 36.8%

Wes - 36.4%  *30 Games

Vit - 36.0% *10 Games

 

30%-35.9%

JJ - 35.3% 

OO - 33.3%

Bey - 31.6%

 

29.9% and under

Kobe - 29.4%  *9 Games

Trent - 22.2%  *32 Games

AJ - 27.3%  *18 Games

 

For the season, the Hawks rank:

• 6th in 3pt FGM at 13.7 per game; 
• 7th in 3pt FGA at 37.6 per game; 
• 17th in 3pt FG% at 36.3%

So they are volume 3pt team with avg efficiency.  The real issue is they combine that with:

• 28th in 3pt FGM Defense at 13.9 per game;
• 21st in 3pt FGA Defense at 35.8 per game;
• 28th in 3pt FG% Defense at 38.4% allowed

So they allow teams to be highly efficient in 3pt shooting.  No bueno.

Compared to years' past, they certainly take more and make more but their efficiency is only marginally better. While defensively, they allow far more makes and takes along with a higher efficiency (last year they ranked 8th in 3pt FGM defense, 16th in FGA defense, and 10th in opponent FG%). 

Conundrum indeed.  

Also I have to think the missed games hits harder for the Hawks given the lack of quality depth on the roster. 

2 hours ago, NBASupes said:

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-underachievers-lakers-warriors-among-the-five-biggest-disappointments-but-they-dont-claim-the-top-spot/

Do I agree? No

1. Hawks have missed 214 games and are about to miss 222 after tonight. 

2. While the Trae/Murray partnership hasn't worked, it's not a failure either. Murray's metrics for the most part are very high and are massively better than last season. Trae individual stats are as good as any season he's been in the league. Yes, it's not a good fit but it's not horrible either. 

3. The regression of Capela has done massive damage to this squad. I knew something was wrong when I saw Clint focusing too much on FTs. I knew he probably knew, he lost his athleticism too much and now is more of a shell of his old self. The motor is completely gone. He still a great rebounder for his position and he still can occasionally have good days as a screener but his offense and defense have cratered and OO just hasn't been able to replace him which has been the worry for years. We all knew we needed to trade CC as his value still had quality last year but you can't trade someone you need and you will just end up needing it back as we learned when Dedmon left us for SAC and we traded for him back. The national media never brings this up but it's obvious to all of us. 

I think Trae stans also underestimated how vital Clint is to Trae's impact overall. We should have seen it against Miami but many blamed the guards instead of the bigs' injuries. Trae will always be a center-leaning player. It's the most critical position to Trae and will always be the most critical position to Trae. Due to Trae's size, I think a drop coverage defender is needed. Modern defenders don't work with Trae. He needs someone with size to protect the paint. 

4. We have seen the rise of JJ, the return of ECF Bogi, a much better offensive Hunter, and flashes of Kobe. We have seen some cool things under Quin. Getting Murray/Trae to fit much better should also be noted. Obviously, the regression of Capela f***ed us but we just didn't think he would regress this damn fast. Even I thought it was going to be a slower regression but nope, it's came at us at a high speed this season. 

5. Player development is back and I am happy about that. Guys were getting stuck under Nate. We are finally seeing improvements. JJ had a breakthrough. 

 

It's easy to never watch us play and say what you think is our problem but we all know what our problem is and it starts at the 5. We must address the center position. It's CRITCAL. 

 

I've asked before and you didn't answer....

Do you think an elite Center or even a center like Edey would help solve the Trae/DJ fit issues or we gonna have to split them regardless? 

I like DJ. I obviously love Trae. But the fit is off, especially defensively. 

50 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I truly believe Young and Edey as a PnR PG/big tandem will sit in NBA lore all-time. 

 

Wonder what the Hawks scouts and FO think of Edey and his fit with Trae.    

9 hours ago, NBASupes said:

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/speed-distance?PlayerPosition=C&dir=D&sort=AVG_SPEED

Hold up....

Embiid, AD, and Joker are 3 of the 5 slowest centers in the NBA by whatever this metric is. And yall are arguing over whether Edey can be fast enough to play in the NBA?

Somethin's not adding up here.

2 minutes ago, kg01 said:

I did read and appreciate your analysis, btw. 

They can't fool me, burd.  I'm hatin on everybody.  I don't even need to see games.  Mwahahahaaaa 

I was a big Hali fan at draft time.  Thought he would be great next to Trae.  I still think he's a really good player.  After seeing the Trae / DJ non-fit, I may have been wrong about the fit next to Trae as well.  Not sure.  But he's a very good player.  Just not as good as some of the press he's gotten, imo.  

2 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Edey essentially from my personal guard and fit is worth +30 extra wins for us. 

The next closest, Clingan at +10.

Next closest after that, Risacher +1.5 

A part of this is due the massive need at center but the other is due to these two players but Edey value removes -10 from Trae. That maybe his biggest value period. He can't do that for any other team but ours. 

So as of today, Atlanta holds picks 10 and 20.  If Edey is more valuable to the Hawks than any other team, should they just pick up a 2nd and draft him in the 2nd?  If it works out, it's the steal of the draft.  If it doesn't, no big deal.  But if they use a lottery pick or even the 20 pick on him when the consensus is he's not a 1st rounder, Hawks either look like geniuses or idiots depending on how it plays out.  

1 hour ago, AHF said:

Fully agree that he is an excellent 3pt shooter.  But I will say that he is getting defensive attention he has never had to deal with before.  Early this season he got a ton of attention and praise from the media and was putting up career numbers and leading his team to an actual winning record.  Teams had to figure out how to deal with that new version of the Pacers and disrupting Haliburton became priority #1.  He is absolutely slumping but I think there is an element of teams having developed a new level of respect for him and the Pacers and treating them accordingly in their gameplanning and focus. 

Per NBA.com/stats :

Tight = 2-4 Feet

Open = 4-6 Feet

Wide Open = 6+ Feet

Rookie Season:  100.0% of 3pt shots were Open or Wide Open / 0.0% were Tight coverage

2nd Season:  96.1% were Open or Wide Open / 3.9% were Tight

3rd Season:  95.8% were Open or Wide Open / 4.2% were Tight

4th Season:  93.6% were Open or Wide Open / 6.4% were Tight

March:  90.4% were Open or Wide Open / 9.6% were Tight

Shooting % (Rookie/2nd/3rd/4th/March

Tight:   0.0% / 33.3% / 22.2% / 28.0% / 16.7%

Open:  29.5% / 41.0% / 37.0% / 28.9% / 7.7%

Wide Open:  46.5% / 41.8% / 43.7% / 40.4% / 24.2%

Every year the proportion of Tight Coverage shots goes up and the Open and Wide Open shots go down.  He's been an Elite Wide Open shooter (42.9% for career), an OK to below avg Open shooter (34.6%) and a below avg Tight shooter (28.3%).  Like you said, he's in a big slump in March and he's also being covered differently.  Will be interesting to see if he's able to adjust and get his Tight and Open % up closer to the 40% mark.  .   

UPDATE:  After last night's game, the Lakers have revised their mid-season offer.  Now it's Austin Reaves and DLO for Trae AND JJ.  

Seriously tho, it won't be long before Laker fans have JJ and Trae packaged together for their scrubs.  You know its coming.  

5 minutes ago, AHF said:

The versions of the Cavs and Knicks we faced were trash.  We were actually favored in those games.  Orlando is also a lottery team without Pancho.  Agree Nets are around our level.

And the Hawks were outscored 119.0-100.0 and gave up 49.9% FG% in the 2 games against a "comparable" team. 

Honestly, last night's game was the only W of the 6 that felt like a really good win (all wins are good, not saying different, but I mean a really good win against a quality lineup).  And it's hard not to chalk that game up as a severe outlier given that the Clips shot the ball so much worse than their avgs for the year.   

1 hour ago, terrell said:

Hawks are 7th in the NBA in net rating since Trae has been out.

14th in offense and 8th in defense.

3rd in opponents fg percentage.

3rd in scoring points of to's.

8th second chance points.

5th in giving up points in the paint.

24th in giving up points off turnovers.

26th in giving up fb points.

23rd in scoring points in paint

23rd in pace.

 

If looks like the offense is surviving off of offensive rebounding and scoring of to's. Offense is kinda trash, but the defense is excellent..  lol

And I get you don't want to hear it, but the 11 games they've played have been against some pretty crappy lineups which makes the offense look even worse and the defense look not quite as good. 

Honest question, do you believe in the Hawks defense enough without Trae to go an entire season avg. 108 or so points per game on offense?  They'd have to have the 3rd best defense in the NBA just to have a net rating of 0.0.  How many games you think they win like that? 

17 minutes ago, Threezus said:

My thing here would be what we get back from Trae if we trade him.  Im not moving him for scraps no chance in heck on that one.  I would need a guy coming back like Brown, Kat, AD, etc...  Either that or for a Spurs move that gave us a ton of picks back that we knew we could swap for a player like those or Ingram or zion if we wanted to get a player + keep some picks on those last 2.    But those guys would 100% help the scoring difference Trae leaves while also giving us improved defense for most of them at another position.

If we can't get a beneficial deal for Trae then he stays and we move on because as said in any scenario he's not leaving for anything less than a deal that seriously helps us to me.

So the Hawks are so much better without Trae that we are willing to trade him and you think the return could be Jaylen Brown or KAT or AD?  Make it make sense.  

I think Trae is an ELITE player.  But I know I'm in the minority on this board in that regard.  But I also know elite players don't get traded for other elite players often.  When elite players are traded, it's almost always for a discount because rarely do two elite players want to get traded at the same time and it all works out.  So by default, you don't trade elite players and get better.   

So either Trae is elite and the Hawks will get substantially worse by trading him OR Trae isn't elite and there's no way in hell you are getting Jaylen Brown or KAT or AD for him.  And you are still likely worse off with whatever players you get for the $40M salary match.

I'm not sure there's a path to getting substantially better without Trae unless it's to blow it up and start over.  And that's not likely to happen for a variety of reasons.  

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

Great win by the Hawks!  Kicked LA in the teeth and those guys never recovered.  Made them look really washed.

.You can’t compare the offense or defense to full season numbers given the changes in how the game is called post-ASB.  The offense is probably not nearly as bad as the full season comparison would suggest.  Scoring is down across the league post-ASB.  Better to compare it against post-ASB numbers if possible.

121 pts per game post AS With Trae (1 game, LOL)

108 pts per game post AS Without Trae (11 games)

Sample size too small in both cases. But it's also too small to say trade Trae and keep DJ because the D is best in NBA without Trae. 

That's a pretty bad take given:

1. the small sample size

2. the poor competition with several teams sending out a g-league roster

3. the post AS game scoring being down significantly, which helps the D

I honestly can't believe anyone thinks the offense would be consistently good enough to win over the course of the entire NBA season without Trae. It's not like the D, even given the benefits of scheduling and post AS officiating, is actually a top D in the NBA. 

6 hours ago, Threezus said:

So far on the 11 game stretch since Trae went down we are giving up about 105 ppg which would have us #1 in PPG on defense in the league this year.    Compared to 121 ppg with Trae for the year.  Look i love Trae as a player and appreciate what he can do with the ball.  But that is a massive difference going from near dead last to 1st in defense over a 10+ game span.

So do we just ignore that without Trae they are avg 108 ppg which would also be near last in the NBA? 

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

16 games to go. We've lost 3 straight and still firmly in the 10th spot.

Will Trae play again? If he comes back for a couple of games at the end of season and gets into a rhythm, he can certainly lead us to win 2 play in games. 

Not sure if that's ultimately the goal which is why I wonder if they just shut him down for the year?

5 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

Like that of following Edy Tavares’s career? 

Not gonna lie....that was my first impression comparison on page 1 or so of this thread. 

After watching him more and reading more about him, I think he'll be significantly better than Edy. 

We got 20 pages on this dude and it's only mid-March. One thing is for certain, following his NBA journey is going to be fascinating. 

I'll just say, after reading all the analysis, all the back and forth, and watching a bunch of videos on him, I'm hoping the Hawks draft him just to see how he'd play with Trae.  

Give me Dalton Kenecht and Edey.