txsting

23 would really bother me. For what it's worth, nba.com is going with 19 as his age. But I keep wondering how he can be 19 AND have 5 years CBA experience. So he started in CBA at age 15?? So, when he started CBA, he was either 15 or 19 at that point. Usually the difference between those ages is rather obvious. I wonder if any of our Chinese friends remembers how old Yi was when he entered CBA? It's very possible that someone forged papers to make Yi appear older in order to get into the CBA, but I have no idea of course.

Has this leaked out of the workouts yet? On Yi's blog (at nba.com) it is now calling him 6-11. Seems like I've seen 6-11 thrown out in some other outlets this week as well. I don't think it matters to me, but how many of you who hold Yi in high esteem feel less enamored at 6-11, vs 7-0 or 7-1? The only measurement I'd be interested in is reach.

The only way to get Howard is to trade for him before he is resigned. Otherwise we won't have the cap room to get him as a free agent, most likely.

Right, if you take Yi, he probably comes off the bench to begin with, in my view. You've got to see what you have in Yi before we go trading away our current 3/4's. I think that's desirable in order to hedge the bust risk of Yi. If you can determine that Yi has 'IT' - the superstar factor - then you make a trade and choose either MW or JS to go get you a C. You may find out along the way that Yi isn't going to be an upgrade at PF over Josh Smith. That's the risk. In that case, you end up trading Yi out to plug the C hole. That's the worst case scenario. Of course there is risk! Of course this means you're accepting more (short term) duplication! To those who are in favor of drafting Yi, that's acceptable risk in order to see if we have the next Dirk/Pau on our hands. Horford and Law is the safe bet. But is that going to get us where we want to go?? I dunno - i think we need a frontcourt star, so either make a trade (get Pau, or better yet Howard if you can), or go for Yi. I'd prefer a fair trade, but Yi is a strong second choice in my eyes. I'm not saying I'm against Horford either, I won't be mad if he is the pick. I'm just not sold that Horford is an all-star type talent.

Very interesting...thanks for that post. As a software engineer that kind of stuff really intrigues me. The system will only be as good as the data that you feed it. Like they said, no algorithm could perform the task perfectly, but it's a good opinion to look at.

I can see the logic in this idea - preferring one HR and one strikeout to a couple of singles or doubles. BK has gotten lucky though - think about this. If you consistently make picks that are not the best player to help you right away - a side effect of that is that you get more high draft picks. You end up winning less games while you wait for development, thereby insuring more high draft picks. I'm QUITE certain this was not BK's intention, but here we are, all those picks taken, forwards stockpiled, and we STILL have two more high picks! By all rights, this team should NOT be in the position we are in. Now it's time to get players who can help soon, and that's why all the talk about veterans and trades - i do think BK understand this. Even if it is to save his own hide. All this fumbling in the dark has actually, somehow, luckily, put the team and BK in a very good situation. BK does indeed have a one last shot at redemption. Without #3 and #11 (a plausible scenario), BK would be completely cooked.

That's a fair way to look at it. It would have been far worse to waste first round picks on guys who flame out of the league or completely suck (DerMarr, Bowdler, Glover, McLeod, Gray et al). Let's review: BK didn't always do the best that he could have done, but he didn't have hindsight to rely on at the time. At least we got some quality, and now is hopefully the time that we cash in on stockpiled talent, perhaps in the form of a big trade. On BK's drafts: Shelden, when his draft is reranked, will drop significantly, probably to the high teens (~#10-#15). That is the worst mistake BK made, and probably one that you didn't need hindsight in order to pick a more valuable player. Even so, Shelden will be a quality player in this league and will retain some value. On second rounders, our high 2nds have been a mixed bag (Salim/Solo ok, Ivey/Hansen/Donta not so good), certainly no huge finds. Our low-mid seconds have not panned out, but that is the common case for drafting there. I would have liked to have seen BK come up with at least one gem considering he's had 5 top 10 picks in the second round now. That would support a case for BK's talent evaulation ability. Maybe Solo will be that guy, we don't know yet. On BK's trades and FA's: BK has also largely avoided reaching for high priced free agents or trades that would sap our resources. Craig Claxton is the worst move that he has made - but that move at least seemed promising at the time. It totally blew up in his face, but no one could have predicted a career-worst season for Claxton. Other moves that you can pan include a second rounder for AJ, signing Lo. The Terry trade didn't work out well either - 'Toine was not a good fit. 'Toine ended up moved for another first rounder that became part of the JJ deal. The SNT of Jax for Harrington was a great move because all thought that Jax was just going to walk and we expected to get nothing in return. Give BK big credit for the JJ deal - turned out to be a master stroke, better than even he could have hoped for. I didn't know we were getting a 25PPG scorer and future all star. Getting #11 for Harrington also looks real good (luck involved, i know). Signing Zaza was a very good move. Lue was a good signing. His early rebuilding efforts were solid - he moved big money in Shareef, Theo, and Dickau for Rasheed, and then turned that into Josh Smith. On BK's vision: I'm not impressed. The indictment here is we have yet to win anything, and we've lost a ton of games. We MUST see the improvement, including playoffs, next year. We've been waiting too long for this rebuild - waiting for our young guys to be ready. Well, they should be nearly ready now. I expect another leap from both Marvin and Josh Smith. Add a PG to the mix (even a young one), and we better win at least 42 games. BK has been very slow to plug obvious roster holes. I know it's hard to make a good deal in today's NBA, but it's not like he hasn't had time. I've been very patient, but with our young players approaching the re-sign time, BK's window is closing. He has to fill the holes given the current capital available (07 draft picks and depth) - because we don't have any more draft picks to count on for awhile. Overall: A confusing, mixed bag. We have young talent, an all-star, and we're still under the cap. We have a huge opportunity this offseason. We've missed on the best opportunities thru the draft, but we have found quality depth instead of complete busts (Childress, Shelden). Jury is still out on Marvin. This will be the fourth season of BK's rebuild (he became GM in spring of 2003). It is now time to produce. We need to plug at least one roster hole (PG), and have a promising 2007 season. If we get into the playoffs, hopefully by playing .500 ball or better, I would have to give BK a passing grade (C, maybe better if on-court performance warrants). Otherwise, I think the gig is up.

I would not deal JJ even to get Kobe. JJ is younger, and Kobe costs too much extra money and heartache. The kicker is there would be hardly any performance benefit. We are lucky to have JJ. If we could put a top frontcourt player with him....sky is the limit.

Yes, I think he could be a superstar. Why else would I want to take him??

I think these prognostications don't hold much value, because it's a bit like being an unqualified Tarot card reader. I'll give it a go anyway. I see Yi as coming off the bench, probably the first man off the bench. Smoove would be starting at 4, Marv at 3. Whichever man is not going well, has a bad matchup, or gets a couple quick fouls, Yi comes in for him. And from there I see Yi rotating to get minutes at both the 3 and 4. Probably gets at least 25 MPG to show what he's got (we gave Marvin 25 in his rookie year). In those 25 MPG: 10 ppg 6 rbg 2 assists 1-2 blocks ? steals I think he would have a pretty high FG% for a rookie, maybe 45-50 range, and we know he's a 75% shooter from the stripe. I don't think he will shoot the NBA 3 at all. He's not Dirk. I think he projects to 20/10, with 3-4 assists, and at least 2 blocks - I'd hope by his third year. That's what I would be hoping for out of Yi.

If he really has put on 10 pounds in California - that is very impressive. I hope the Hawks were able to get a weight measurement at the workout (using their own scale).

I know the most obvious thing for us is to get the best PG at #11. But, if we can somehow take care of PG through a trade (Childress for Calderon or Jack), then we are in position to take a player who has slipped and get huge value. Without Childress, we would be pleased to pick up a 2/3, or possibly a PF/C type. Someone like Brewer, Green, Noah, Hawes, etc will be there, you can count on it.

Yi's NBA.com blog Quote: About my training Right now, my daily training is about two hours long. I’m concentrating on special teams and strength training. I weighed myself recently and I’ve put on 10 more pounds, which I’m happy about. I'm not sure why Yi is working on special teams. I do NOT want him killing himself on kickoff coverage. I wonder what that 10 pounds brings him up to - couldn't possibly be over 250 yet, could he?

I know...i was saying if you already have a PG you don't have to hold tight to #11 anymore. If you've already dealt Childress for Calderon, then your offer to Memphis can be Zaza/#3/#11/Speedy for Gasol. The biggest thing we would lack is a backup 2/3 - we would miss Childress. However, such a player is not so hard to find. We could probably pickup an older vet in FA like Charlie Bell or Matt Barnes who can play some D and knock down a shot.

Maybe Ed Gray is coming off the bench in the CBA somewhere.

I don't know why, but I trust BK not to draft Wright. That would be doomsday. I really think he's not looking beyond Yi or Horford - but I could be wrong.

For me, worst case is that BK can't get the trigger pulled on a deal and has to draft two kids out of the draft. Based on what we're hearing from the BK camp - this is my worst case scenario: #3 = Yi or Horford #11 = Conley or Law or Critt (dark horse in Stuckey) To me, that is the floor. Not a bad floor! I will be pissed if we somehow do worse than that. But I'm still very hopeful that we can do more, based on Sothron's comment that every team except the Spurs has come forward with a trade proposal or inquiry. I want at least one veteran, quality starter at either PG, or PF/C. What's your worst case scenario?

As was mentioned, it would be great to add the vet PG to the mix even before the draft. We know BK wants some older players in here to start winning. With this deal, we can free ourselves to pick talent in the draft. Especially at pick #11 - don't you think someone we don't expect will slide there? It would great to be free to pick that talent, otherwise you're forced to go to the rookie PG route. It's still not a bad option, but we're trying to maximize our value. I especially am trying to be greedy and I'm currently very high on the remote possibility of pairing up Calderon/Gasol. Come to think of it, getting Calderon through trade even frees the team to try for Gasol with #3 + #11 + something. Remember the rumored Memphis offer (see a Sothron thread) - I think it was Childress, #3, #11? BK reportedly wanted to keep the #11 so he could get his PG. Well, if he already has the PG......only problem is we only have one Childress and he can't go in both trades!!!! Oh the possibilities......

I thought I would never hear that name again. Had no idea he was playing CBA.

Every team but the Spurs?!?! That is good info. There are so many good options here - we really have to hold BK accountable to maximizing it. I'm already getting tired of making scenarios, and I've only scratched the surface of what is possible. With so many good options, it's easier to list the options you don't want. No Brandan Wright at any pick. No reaches allowed (Conley at #3). Don't trade JJ. I think that about covers it.

Defense is a concern, but if you're outproducing your own liability, in terms of scoring and assists - doesn't that more than counterbalance it? I think this is what supports my argument best: Calderon on 82games By the same measure, Jack is actually outproduced by his opponent. So, who actually helps you win more games? I'll definitely grant that Jack has more upside (edit: i don't mean his ceiling is higher, but he has more room between today and his ceiling) and is still improving. Calderon is a little older already, but his production per minute is already eye-popping.

I'm a GT fan and grad, so I am emotional about Jack, but I think Calderon makes the team better with his distribution ability. I am also surprised by Calderon's offensive efficiency - i frankly can't even believe he's on the table (if he is).

Does anyone have a knock on Calderon other than defense? Honest question.

This sounds good also. I was really trying to plug Yi in at 4, and make a deal for Gasol that is hard for Memphis to turn down. By keeping Smith, you force Yi over to SF and I'm not as high on that. I hadn't considered moving Marvin - I wonder what Memphis thinks of that? They might like it better if they are targeting Horford, so as not to take on two PF's. Plus they are getting Zaza back to start at the 5. I don't think you necessarily need to swap the #3 and #4 pick - I still want Yi and they want Horford. Yi isn't working out for Memphis so they won't take him. There's no value in the swap for Memphis. Back to money - since you are moving Marvin/Speedy/Childress/Zaza I think that frees up enough money to be comfortable with Gasol and Calderon's impending deal.

Calderon outproduced his opponent by +4.9 last year (82games.com). His defense can't be that bad. Same argument for Gasol. You get enough guys outproducing their counterpart, you win basketball games.