txsting

That's crazy talk. Calderon for Childress straight up should do it. Then you go get Gasol. Gasol and Calderon played on the Spanish national team together for 5 years. They would both be very happy together - and would make it much easier to resign Calderon. Gasol is VERY valuable - I would try to trade Smoove/Zaza/Lue to get him in. I'm not sure Memphis won't take that. I think you have to move Smoove's impending deal in order to feel good about taking Gasol's deal. Plus, I think Smoove would be required for Memphis to take the deal. Then Yi at #3 as BPA. Got to have a 2/3 at #11 to take the place of Chill. Maybe Jeff Green falls here? Derrick Byars from Vandy? Stuckey? Calderon / Craig / AJ JJ / Salim Marvin / Green ?? Yi / Shelden Gasol / Solo / Lo Pretty kick azz 12-man roster right there. Deep enough, and I think you can keep the core signed from a $$ standpoint.

I did not realize Calderon's production was so high. He shot over 50% from the field last year. His eFG on jumpers was 48%, and from the inside it is 63%. 5.3 APG in 24 minutes is very very nice. Plus, he'll only be 26 next year - perfect age for our development. jezmund - that is a very nice offseason plan you put together.

If GS thinks we're trading out of the #3 - I could see the rumored #3 for CV/#6 to go down. If Bucks move up to #3, they want Horford. Maybe GS gets the #4 or #5 pick for Yi. We would be almost assured that Conley is still there at #6. Then we have CV (who has value) to put in a deal, or even keep.

Or it tells us that GS has already spoken to Hawks and BK wanted a lot more (Biedrins++). GS has to deal with Atlanta to be certain of Yi, period. They do not know that we won't take Yi. Anything else is just speculation.

He sounds like a good option. Could be better than Law or Crit. I would not be disappointed with this. It's nice to know we'll have a good selection of talent to choose from with #11 if we keep it. Are we going to work out Stuckey??

Yeah, I'm not saying that would be bad at all. Maybe I'm getting greedy thinking of that Yi/Pau frontline. Smoove can definitely develop at PF into what we need. I just need to see it all year next year.

This is a good post and a good argument. As long as we could keep a decent bench around a JJ/Gasol team, I would be for it. I've argued elsewhere that this can't be done if we keep our current core (minus Chill), and can only spend up to the cap. The point of the argument being, we're not going to win a championship with JJ/Gasol and no depth. You may disagree with that, but that's my opinion. So, it comes back to, what does Gasol cost? The two most likely trades I see: a) #3/Chill/Zaza/Craig - we can compete immediately and be very strong next year. I think the team will stagnate (near 50-55 wins?) after Smoove's extension costs us the bench in 08. Hell, it's not that bad honestly. At some point we have to get to the winning, as you say. b) #11/Smoove/Craig - we get better immediately because Gasol>Smoove. Gasol is so much more efficient offensively. We pack up Smoove, his 31% jumper, and his shotblocks into the frontrow. We pick Yi at #3, trade Zaza/filler for a young PG. Without Smoove's big extension, we can spend that 8-10M on our deep bench, and Childress is a big part of that. I think this team starts out good and continues to improve as Yi develops his immense talent at PF. Gasol plays mostly at C in either scenario. If we get the right PG in the trade we are cooking.

Hi - do you think the Chinese government is ok with Yi being drafted by the Hawks? I know it's just your opinion, but I would be interested. Thanks!

If you don't qualify this question with anything, I think nearly everyone will take Conley. It's just that about 75% of the board feels that we can make a better team by not choosing Conley at #3.

Welcome to all the Chinese fans! There were some really interesting viewpoints brought up - i especially noticed the comment about Yao's CBA stats being inflated due to a softer CBA and a weak team around him. I would not have known that, but I can believe it. I also did not realize the overall strength of Yi's Guangdong Tigers, although I did know that have won something like 3 of last 4 titles, losing this year in the finals. Even on a good team like Guangdong, Yi is still getting good numbers. I definitely understand why a number of posters here want to move the #3 pick for a vet - it's the fastest path to more wins for sure. But if that doesn't work out, i don't see how we can pass on Yi. We can work out the roster later - but we still need more talent, undeniably. We are extremely fortunate to have the options that we now possess. Question for the Chinese fans - what kind of person is Yi? Does he have strong character? Does he have leadership quality? Is he a good teammate? Thanks for your responses.

It no longer matters where he was drafted. All that matters is what he is. We don't know for sure yet, but he sure looks like a 10/10 guy to me who will be a very good defender. He's also a high character guy. I don't see why we would want Haywood for him.

I ran the numbers of that JS/#11/Speedy trade scenario, and actually it works out great. We could resign everyone and be right at or near the cap. The thing that makes it work is moving the expected big salary of Smoove, and the mid-sized deal of Speedy. Would Memphis do that? I think I would, but only if I knew I could line up the deal for the PG.

I thought a little more about the JS/#11/Speedy for Pau scenario (assuming that's even valid), and I think you would probably still want to take the value of Yi at #3 (or maybe even Horford). A front line of Gasol and Yi could be something great. Then you still need to make a trade for a PG, but you should have the excess pieces to do it. Probably would make sense to move Zaza because I would like the front line rotation of Gasol/Yi/Shelden/Solo - that is versatile as hell. I think Zaza + (Lue or AJ) could bring us back a young PG or maybe late lotto pick for Crit. That leaves you with: Crit?/ Lue or AJ JJ/ Salim MW / Chill Yi / Shelden Gasol / Solo You know it's not half bad. No irritating duplication. People in backup roles who were made to play backup roles. Without a really big salary for Smoove, I think it works out financially, though without breathing room.

Walt, you're making the reasoned call, bro. I think we are of like mind in this difficult time. I say it again - if we're constrained to the salary cap by management - Gasol is a NO GO. It would be different if we would be allowed, just like all the other competitive teams, to spend cash on our own. The court problems are not going away before the draft so how can we take the risk? Also, Gasol probably will cost more than your best case #3/Chill/Craig scenario. If I ask you to put Smoove in instead of Chill I think you're even deeper in the Yi camp. If the deal were Smoove/#11/whatever, it would change the dynamic of the deal completely and I'd have to reconsider that.

atlas, meet brick wall. brick wall, atlas.

Northcyde - I think all fans who care about the team going anywhere should care about cap space. We all love to play jr. GM - and if we're going to logon here and dream about sitting in BK's big boy shoes we might as well consider all angles. We expect no less of BK. Pau is great, until you factor in the cost of acquiring and keeping him. I would be absolutely in favor of Pau if we could clear up the court problems and get a commitment from ownership to spend up to the luxury tax level. Failing that, it is my opinion that we will become a thin and vulnerable team, albeit with a championship worthy top 6 players. Getting Pau would immediately make this team a contender, and I'm certain within 2 years we could exceed 50 wins and harbor a realistic chance of the Finals. I think our achilles heel would be the fact that we couldn't rely on our bench, therefore we couldn't be versatile with our lineup. If we run into a team that has the right matchups to stop what we like to do best, we'd be powerless to adapt. Furthermore, any injury to a starter around playoff time would likely end the season. I have to admit - even getting to this level would be a great thing considering the past 5+ years. But I'd rather gamble on Yi becoming Pau-like - because if that works out, we can handle ALL comers. I like the video I've seen, and I really think the odds are 50-50 or better that Yi can do it. Roll the dice!! I'm still in the Yi camp for all the usual reasons, i won't bother posting them all again here.

Players don't get faster on the court, they get SLOWER (with ball in hand that is). How much the ball slows them down is the factor that we don't know. Who cares how fast a PG can sprint without the ball - they usually have the ball in a fast break scenario anyway. To another point, basketball players don't generally practice their 40 yard sprints, certainly not like football players do. If you are not trained in track or have put in a lot of practice, it easy to turn in a time that doesn't reflect your capability (hint - it's all about the start). Conley might actually be a lot faster than he timed, Crit might even be slower, could be the other way around - fact is we don't know. Every year, these combines tell us who is the "best athelete" and then you never hear of that guy (and many other high finishers) again. The correlation factor is not strong. Even size and length are probably overrated for correlation to on-court results. So I'm not about Crit simply because he's 6'4" - I'm about him because he can shoot the rock, handle the ball, drive and finish, and distribute off the drive. And on balance, it's my opinion he's nearly as valuable as Conley - certainly to the point of not reaching for Conley at #3. If Conley as available at #11, I would probably choose him over Crit - I'm just saying it's hard to argue there is a wide gap. I'm certainly not buying the argument that the combine results demonstrate that gap.

We can't exercise common sense on this forum? Good, we are already one step ahead of you.

I'm with you on this thought. I think the idea is that Crittenton gives you flexibility. He can play backup minutes at SG easily. He'll still be groomed for the starting PG role, and in time he has the talent to fill that better than anyone in this draft (in my opinion of course). I'm beaten down by the speed argument. We're talking fractions of a second here. And raw speed has little or nothing to do with game speed. Who wants to argue the athletic merits, with respect to speed, of Kidd, Billups, Deron? They aren't track stars, but they all have great ability and skill in getting their man off balance. That's what it's all about.

Here's an interesting thread from a Grizz board: http://grizzlies.infopop.cc/eve/forums/a/t...76/m/2221074202 Apparently they saw Sekou's trade idea and many liked it. Other ideas centered around Smoove. #3/Smoove/Zaza/Lo was kicked around but several agreed that was asking too much. The "cheapest" idea I saw was Smoove/#11/filler for Pau. I don't even like that because it puts us in a bad value position with the #3 pick. I am also starting to believe that the asking price for Pau will have to include Smoove and at least one of the picks. Who has the cojones to do that? I just don't think it makes enough sense for us, considering Yi is just sitting right there in front of us, with all that potential and the huge bag of cash that he's dragging behind him. I'm leaning strongly to Yi. I like the gamble. I like the secondary benefits. I like keeping the #11 pick because I think it represents excellent value for a PG selection. I like the idea of keeping our core. I like the financial ability to resign everybody if we choose. I like Pau too. But it would have to be a homerun type deal for me (#3/(Chill or Zaza)/Craig). And I just don't think that will happen.

Also, i believe we can't send both picks unless we get one back. How about you just send Jack straight to Memphis and we keep the #11?

I was just having that thought too, about moving Zach to Memphis to facilitate the deal. Now, if Memphis likes Zach, I think you've come up with a very interesting deal. I feel very good about that deal from a Hawks standpoint. You'd have to think Portland would be down - they get a great pick and a SF to fill a hole. Memphis is getting back equivalent talent plus a good pick. Maybe Memphis whines for a little more? We're not sending out very much salary - how does this trade work money wise? Seems like you'd have to do this after the draft, unless the Hawks also send out Craig or something like that. Which trade checker are you using?

Good post! I haven't been able to contain myself from posting much more frequently, and it's all because I can see the good times coming.

I would hope that you are correct. I think we do fall in the trap of overvaluing our own players, I'm frequently guilty of that. I've often wondered how other GM's would value Smoove - he's a very unique player. If the numbers work out closer to your projections, we can probably make it work. My projections are more like worst-case scenarios.

I don't know maybe Smoove doesn't quite start at $10 but I think it may be close. But in 2009 I think he would certainly get to $10 in the second year of his deal. JJ at $15, Pau at $16.4, and Smoove at $10 = $41M in three players. But the kicker is, the teams you mentioned are probably all freely spending over the cap. We are currently not allowed to do that. So, given current constraints, I still think that the Gasol is questionable for us.. But as TP astutely remarked, maybe these are all homer deals anyway. If the deal is more like #3/Smoove/filler for Pau and maybe a protected first, the deal is probably more equitable for Memphis and more doable long term for Atlanta. But I know nobody really wants to give up Smoove. Would you want Yi and Smoove, or Pau? You can credibly argue that both ways.