txsting

It's not the best we can do, IMO. Conley/Hawes represents the least we should expect. And even that is a big upgrade from what we have now. I don't see much difference between Hawes and Bogut, really. The talk about Hawes makes me wonder - why is Hawes so much higher ranked than Kyle Visser? I guess since Visser only really came on this year and played on a mediocre team people are cautious there. To me, Visser looked like a quality player with similar virtues that I think could be a second round steal.

Portland gets hosed - they wouldn't do this. They also won't give up Jack without being able to get a PG in return (the Conley deal). I like what you're trying to land for the Hawks though, without even giving up the #3. Maybe a permutation of this would work.

I think he flies up the board in workouts. He also interviews very well. I'm biased, yes, but having seen almost every game he's played, I believe that the NBA game is a perfect fit for him. He was in a position of having to do it all himself at times, which contributed to his turnover problems. If you put talented players around him he will shine. Tech had terrible offensive options last year after Clinch got hurt, and Thaddeus was so unreliable (up and down). (i realize this is a somewhat regurgitated post, like most everything else on here, so feel free to stop here) I know a lot of people don't want another 19 year old player, but he's a legitimate top 5 talent with all the intangibles to boot. Exciting to watch as well - would be a fan favorite. I love Jack, and there's been interesting discussion on the Jack/Aldridge for #3 possibility. Jack is a solid guard, but his ability is not at all on the same level as Crit. Jack was a very polished prep player but was eaten up by the ACC as a freshman. Crit got better as he went and we won 7 of the last 9 in ACC play. I would say Crit as a freshman, towards the end, was as good or better than Jack as a junior. In those last 9 regular season ACC games he averaged 18 PPG, 4.6 Reb, 6.2 APG in 32 minutes. So, he's good right now, getting better, and upside is tremendous. And as far as winning goes, Tech was 11-17 in 05/06. Crit (and credit to Thad too) helped turn that around to 17-12 and a NCAA berth. Package up the #3 to get a C, pick Yi, whatever, we can't help but get a LOT better this offseason. But by geebus, please don't pick Conley at #3!!! I'm not worried because there is no way BK would do that anyway, especially given his track record.

http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/g...526javaris.html Bad news for my Jackets, great news for Hawks. This gives one more excellent option for our #11. Crit must have gotten the promise from BK! j/k

Yes, and if we do take Conley (and he's good) you always have that shot at signing Oden down the road. I agree, Portland might overpay for the reasons that you mentioned. They also might because the GM has to feel he's playing with "house money" given his incredibly good fortune. He might be willing to give more than normal. If BK plays his cards right, we can profit from that.

That's what I was thinking Walt - Yi makes the center problem so much easier because he doesn't have to be the 2-way dominant guy we were talking about months ago. Darko works for me - love the idea of actual skilled big men, it reduces the playmaking load for the PG as well. We have so much capital. Tyson Chandler? We have enough to make a good offer for Tyson. I also like the other idea posted about using #11 + capital to get a vet PG (Bibby was suggested but maybe someone else), that could reduce the time it takes to reach our potential. Also it could ease my concern about leadership and intangibles if you find the right guy. If you draft two guys with star potential, it has to increase the chances that you are at least right about one of them, eh?

General Yi! Can't wait to hear what he can do in the workouts. I hope to God that BK will bring him in and work the pizz out of him. Who has the upside of Yi? The comments from the other players he's working out with in L.A. (see chad ford's man love article) are very impressive. Of course, maybe Yi is just a machine in workouts due to rigorous Chinese training and ritualistic beatings for poor performance. j/k Pulling together all of the shaky, intentionally misleading, and probably false information available to me: Positives: 1) he plays aggressive and attacks the basket, loves to dunk, no stigma of the shy international player here at all 2) shooting range out to 18 feet I read, not quite like Dirk, probably more similar to KG's shooting ability. 3) can shoot his free throws (75%) 4) high athleticism and ball-handling skill (evident in video) 5) has been playing pro ball for years, his body is nearly ready (i see 245 lbs?), older age is a positive for us since we need to see results sooner than later. 6) huge national and international attention for the Hawks. This helps in ticket sales, TV, merchandising, even with free agent interest. If he is really good, he will gets tons of all-star votes from China just like Yao. 7) he's ours if we want him - not a reach at 3. Actually he may very well be BPA. 8) as others have said - LAST CHANCE for a great player through the draft. Dude has 20/10 potential. Maybe Brandan or Horford can do that, but I have my doubts. 9) versatile - can play 3 or 4, occasionally at 5 depending on matchups. Negatives: 1) we have to fit him into our team somehow. One of our forwards has to go (JC, MW, JS) in a good trade in order to get the most out of picking Yi. 2) will all the attention be too much on Yi? 3) hasn't played much top competition. MUST work him out in some 3-on-3 with NBA players, at a minimum. 4) defensive ability and desire largely unknown. Low BPG numbers for his size (I think 1.2 was the number). 5) relatively weak upper body and possibly weak hands. 6) will miss out on Conley. I'm cool with this because I think Crit > Conley, and may actually be available at #11. 7) NOT A C! But there isn't one in the draft with Hibbert gone, and barring some crazy trade, we can't get a good C anyway. Face it people - the miracle trade for Gasol/Howard et al just ain't gonna happen. Too complex and expensive for ol' BK. I'll be thrilled with: Crit / Speedy / AJ / Lue JJ / Salim Smoove / Marvin / Chillz (one gone in trade) Yi / Shelden / Lo Zaza / Solo That team is pretty good right there, but I will admit the main holes being low-post D and veteran leadership. We could score like crazy and imagine the matchup problems and depth. I've listed 14 players that we would have under contract, so a move is REQUIRED (12 player roster max). I would try to move Zaza + Chillz + Lue (or something like that) for a defensive C, preferably a vet. Along the lines of Camby but he is probably too old/fragile.

No doubt. We now have 14 players under contract for next season!! BK's hand is absolutely forced into some sort of dealing.

I'm with you on most of this. At this early stage, I think I value Hibbert a little more highly than you. I am starting to buy into the theory (posted elsewhere) that Hibbert's numbers are depressed by the Princeton offense. Maybe so, maybe not, i need some time to break that down myself. Anyway, I'm not so sure Hibbert is a big reach at 3. He might be a better rebounder than you realize, considering he played 26 MPG, and also realize there was Jeff Green grabbing a lot of those rebounds. But to play along with your angle...you're right, BPA at #3 is likely a SF/PF. This necessitates a trade, I agree. It's interesting - Brewer and Green you have to say they are SF's all the way. But Yi is intriguing - he has the versatility to play SF or PF (not C). If you decide Yi is the man, you have a lot more possibilities in trade, making it more likely you can pull off the deal. Now it comes down to who do you keep, Marvin or Smoove? Smoove has shown more, he's bigger, he's more versatile. Marvin seems that he's growing into a prototypical SF, I believe he will eventually be an efficient scorer once his shot starts falling. Smoove has more value. It really depends on your targets for C and what that team will want in return. The one that comes to mind for me is Bynum, what are your targets? The Lakers will be a difficult trade partner because they are over the cap. They need to get rid of Odom, and we don't want him. Walter's 3-way proposal (post #215565) was the best chance I've seen, and it's probably remote. Trades are very difficult, especially regarding draft picks since they carry no value in trade for matching purposes. In a perfect world, we trade Marvin++ for a good young C, pick a stud SF/PF at #3 and a promising PG at #11. Reality will probably come up short of that.

Wow northcyde - you put a lot into that. I feel obligated to give you a reply here. Your scenarios are every bit as valid and likely as mine - i could certainly see it playing out like you said. The 07-08 lineup you come up with is actually better than what I had envisioned. If anything, it seems to support the surprising notion that we could actually have been stronger without the JJ trade, knowing what we know now. I enjoy drawing out these scenarios. But to be fair, I've come to the conclusion that you have to judge the JJ deal (or any deal) on the known facts and not on 2nd and 3rd levels of ramifications which cannot be accurately predicted, despite being fun to do. So given that, the deal was Diaw, #21 in 2006, ? in 2007/08 (we'll see tonight) FOR JJ If we get a top 3 tonight, we are WAY ahead on the JJ deal, and we'll likely pay back PHX with a mediocre pick next year. If PHX gets the #4 or #5 pick, IMO we very likely lost in the deal, even if you put ramifications aside. EDIT: but it was still a good gamble since we netted an all-star and retained a shot at greatness through the lottery.

It's arguable that JJ is better than Roy+Marcus. I could see both sides of that, and time will tell. I think if you take everything together, from a salary cap position, and the ownership squabble - my "couldabeens" would be in better position long term than the current team, barring a top 3 pick in this draft. Anyway, it's just a scenario for fun and discussion - and of course it wouldn't work out just the way I proposed. For instance, our results this year would have no doubt been different, maybe worse, maybe better - affecting our draft position, changing everything. I think when you evaluate how good a given move was, you have to consider what your alternatives were. If you are BK, I agree that there is no point in looking back. But if you are evaluating BK, you must look at past because it all you have to go on.

Follow along what might have occurred had the Hawks not dealt for JJ (only one possible scenario of course): 1) we keep Diaw (no big deal) 2) we keep the 2006 #21 pick - which was used for Rondo. Marcus Williams went #22 and we know BK was interested in him. I say we would have picked Marcus Williams, likely. 3) we would be certain to have our pick in this draft, likely #5. This becomes Hibbert, most likely. 4) most importantly, our ownership is not fractured by the JJ deal fallout. Legal trouble perhaps never occur. 5) Since we pick Marcus Williams in June 06, we never sign Speedy in July 06. 6) Since we have no JJ, we don't need to pick Shelden at #5. We pick Roy instead because we still have a huge hole at SG. 7) we probably still pick Solo because we still are weak in the front court at that point. 8) We still have the #11 pick in the 2007 draft - we can take BPA. 9) we have a ton more cap room - no JJ and no speedy. Probably BK would have made another dumb free agent signing but we can't know for sure. Ultimate woulda-coulda-shoulda team: Marcus Williams / Lue Roy / Chills Marvin / Diaw Smoove / Solo / #11 pick Hibbert / Zaza So, maybe even our best moves have bit us in the arse. We can't really judge it completely until tonight. If we don't get a top 3 pick this year, we'll be joining mediocre team hell. Our team will probably be good enough to win 40 games, never contend, no future lotto chances, and be capped out to boot. However, if we do get a top 3 pick (even #3) - it's redemption time. We will have assembled enough capital in order to at least have a chance. With Oden we would be undeniably be the best positioned team in the East for a bright future in a couple of years. Crossing my fingers now....

I don't get why you can't execute a fast break team with a slow center. The showtime Lakers were the best and it didn't matter that Kareem lumbered up the court behind everyone. Kareem would start the break with a great outlet pass. What is a "running team"? Doesn't that just mean that you frequently run the fast break on defensive rebounds? We still need someone in the middle to get that rebound who is a skilled passer. Hibbert can do that. I think the running team concept where you have 5 thoroughbred athletes on the court at a time is a little overblown.

That's one of the best complex trades I've seen on here. It's equitable for all parties, seemingly. Minnesota may like a little more back for Garnett and Foye, but someone could throw in a highly protected pick or 2nd rounder perhaps. Couple q's: 1) is Bynum > Hibbert? Hibbert is the likely alternative if keeping the 3rd pick. 2) could Marvin + Speedy (or Marvin + whatever) bring back a better guard on the open market? 3) is Foye better than the top PG available at 11?

If Hibbert is available at 11, I'm taking him too. Of course I want a PG in the worst way, but they are a lot easier to find than a 7-2 Hibbert with good skills. He was able to match up very well against Oden when they went head to head. If this scenario plays out, you could see the possibility of one of the top 3 PG's slipping down to #19 (Lakers). It's not a secret that Kupchak doesn't want the Lakers getting any younger. His window with Kobe is narrow. I wonder if we could trade Lue and maybe a future 2nd rounder for #19 in order to get back in and grab a guard? Lue is a good PG in the triangle because of his shooting ability.

I really think we need a PG who is a scoring option. Right now we are a very poor offensive team in need of greater options. We need a complement to JJ in order to begin competing, bottom line. We were a demonstrably better team last season when Lue was playing well and scoring (8-9 record when Lue scored 15 or more) If we don't luck into a frontcourt scoring option (no Durant or Oden), then I'd rather have a PG who can score but has only adequate playmaking ability. JJ is an above-average playmaker (4.4 APG) who I think would pair well with a combo guard style player. With that in mind, I have to rank the PG's like this: 1) Crit (think he's a top 5 talent, really) 2) Law 3) Conley I'm concerned that Conley really duplicates the skills that we already have on the roster with Speedy. Crit is so raw but has great attitude, is very coachable, and his flaws are all things you can work on. Law also has great intangibles and scoring touch and if Crit flies up the board, Law would be a nice pick at #11. Now, if we do get Oden or Durant, I might be willing to pick Conley, but ONLY if his workouts showed me a real advantage over the other guards in playmaking (passing, ballhandling, penetration) and defense.

Just musing about PG's already in the league who could be acquisition targets. I started to think about Sergio and I became intrigued with his game. He's just a rookie, and was taken 27th last year by the Suns (traded to the Blazers). The Blazers are giving most of the PG minutes to Jack, and Sergio is filling a backup role playing 11 mpg. Sergio's game is compared to Jason Williams frequently - that is to say he's a great distributor and flashy, sometimes too much. He averages 3.3 apg in his short minutes. His sample size is small, but he appears to control the game by assisting a very high % of his teammates baskets (45.7%, second in the league to Nash, http://www.82games.com/random28.htm). Question marks seem to be defense and shot choice/accuracy. I can't say I've seen too much of him because a) the blazers suck, and b) they are on the west coast. Can Sergio play D? I feel that we need a distributor and high tempo point to properly run this team. I don't know if Acie Law is the best choice for that (kind of like Foye last year), and he might be the only point we could reasonably take with the Indiana pick. I'd take Crit in a heartbeat, but I don't think he's coming out. I'm also assuming that we won't really go for Billups (age/money) or Mo Williams. Portland might prefer a sparkplug scorer (Lue/Salim) coming off the bench behind the steady Jack, so there might be a deal possible for Sergio, but PTL's over the cap so it's tough. What do y'all think? Who else might we look at?

Walt, Have to agree and I've been thinking the same thing. If Crit is on the board and you know you're getting him - I would pull the trigger. A huge reason for doing Chills in this deal is that his contract will be up soon - and moving his money will really help in signing Marvin and Solomon in '09. Short of the big 3 (JJ, JS, MW), I'd move any role player along with Chills in order to get this done. I like Chills, but we have to get serious about PG at some point. I'm no longer of the opinion that we HAVE to try and get the dominant 2-way big, primarily because it's just not likely that we can do so. I'd think we can get by with a defensive presence, if we have a legit top PG. I wouldn't do it for anyone except Crittendon. He is a superstar in the making - he really has it all. Problem is, it doesn't really look like he's coming out to me. He's a serious student of the game and is very intent on continuing the GT point guard legacy. If he gets a top 5 promise, he'll probably go, but he won't get that this year.

An update on draft lottery odds and chances of a top 3 pick: (source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery) 42%: If we finish 3rd or 4th worst. (we are 2 games from 4th) 28%: If we finish 5th worst. (currently tied for this pos.) 18%: If we finish 6th or 7th worst. (we are .5 games from 7th) 8%: If we finish 8th or 9th worst. (we are 2.5 games from 9th) (We have no real chance at having the worst or second worst records, given our big lead on Boston and Memphis) So, if we stay in current position, we at least have a fighting chance. The odds really tumble as you drop off each tier. I think it's pretty likely we will finish in 6th or 7th position given the soft schedule and our team playing pretty decent (compared to past years).

I happened to notice in a thread where the same poster had back-to-back posts, that the post count didn't increment. I looked around at a few other examples from today and saw the same thing. Just wanted to point that out in case anyone out there cares.

It has been said that this is the year that maybe we will determine who the "keepers" are. I think we've definitely found one in Josh Smith. We knew we had one in JJ. We have other role players and potential around - but we have two to build on, and that's not a bad start.

That post is money, Dr Z!!! I agree, PG is key, even more so than C. A lot of teams in this league can get by with average play in the middle. Oden is NOT a requirement, just one very unlikely way to get better. Call Oden what he is - a SHORTCUT. Everyone wants the easy way out of this mess. Look at the best team in the league - Mavs, IMO. Of course nobody else has a Dirk, but they get by with a couple of defensive minded goons in the middle. And they have super solid backcourt team play with JT of all people, plus Devin, Devean, and Howard. Balanced attack, TEAM defense, high athleticism, length, a feature scorer, a do-everything guy, etc. Starting to sound like what we're trying to do here? We have a few of these pieces, we now need the defense and some reliable complementary scorers for this balanced attack. Defense is 90% coaching (see Avery Johnson vs. Nellie, same players). A good all around PG (like Billups) might take us to the next level. Lue is all offense, Speedy all defense. I don't think it's a coincidence that we win more with Lue in the lineup. We need his extra scoring punch with the absence of a true second option. But can you imagine this team with Billups?? Only way to have any shot at Billups is to win, baby. Hope the Hawks can keep it going.

If we have the money, and that's far from a sure thing, let's throw it at Randolph Morris to be our center of the future. If he was able to be in the draft he'd probably be a low lottery selection at least. We should have a good chance since he's from Atlanta and he may be willing to come play for the Hawks despite how much we suck. We have to take advantage of this opportunity, this type of thing NEVER happens!! We don't have a very good chance of getting a top three pick, let's all face it. If we finish 4th worst, we have about a 42% chance at a top three pick. Even if we finish dead last, which is unlikely, we're only 64% likely to get a top three pick. If more than three teams finish ahead of us, the odds really tumble. So, if you're the GM, you CANNOT be counting on the draft to save us. We're too young anyways. Maybe we get lucky with the lottery, but it should come as no surprise when and if that doesn't pan out. And until we figure who owns this damn team, we can't splash in free agency either. So we're pretty much stuck with trades. And we do have some tradeable quantities who can still be considered to have potential and upside. It's terribly difficult to trade small for big, so I would try to work the other direction. We really need another reasonable scoring option if we want to compete every night. Pretty much every good team out there has at least two consistent 15+ point scorers. We only have one, and a bunch of guys who are yo-yo scorers (5, 20, 6, 16, etc). Of course we were hoping that Speedy could do it, but I can't see it happening. We obviously have our best results with Lue in the game because he's a pretty consistent option, despite his deficiencies. Someone like Ridnour would be a good step in the right direction, but would also probably kill our feeble lottery chances by making us a mediocre (not terrible) ballclub.

Let's retread this issue considering Morris's play this year. Of course you are interested. Maybe. Is he a headcase? He's 6'11, 260, playing his best basketball this season for UK (16 and 8, with 2 blocks per). If you want him, how could we get him? Remember, he has already been through the draft (not picked), so I don't believe he can enter the draft again. I for one would like to try, assuming we don't get a top 3 pick this year. Of course if we get a top 3 pick, considering who is available, you have to go big. That would allow us to focus in on drafting the best PG (in a poor PG class) with the Indiana pick.

There aren't many def. rebounds to be had when the opponent shoots 56%.