txsting

Your points are good, and financially what you are saying makes sense. Now, look forward at what you have committed in salaries for 2008 and 2009. Can you tell me how we fill out a team with two $15+M players and Smoove likely over $10M? No other successful team in the NBA operates with three stars at that level of compensation. I can't work out how our penniless and bent-over owners will be able to field a team that is constructed thusly. And I would LOVE to get Pau and keep Smoove.

The answer on many teams, esp Mavs ($35M over the cap), is that they operate over the cap and near luxury tax levels. Since we don't seem to be capable of doing that (ownership), we're already fighting with one arm tied. I believe that only if this team starts to perform and bring in money will we be allowed to exceed the cap, and only then if the court issues are resolved. Spurs have been great at keeping guys happy, getting hometown discounts, and filling the roster with low/medium pay role players. They operate with only three high salary guys (Tim, Parker, Manu). Practically everyone else that contributes makes 2-3M. They have one marginally bad contract in Barry for 5M. And even they are $12M over the cap because they keep a deep bench. Detroit is about 5M over the cap, and they do it with a few more high priced players and a shorter bench than SA. They are about to take a big hit with the Billups resigning, but they don't have much of a choice. The fact is, the NBA rules ALLOW teams to easily resign their own players if you are willing to exceed cap. The cap restricts you primarily when signing new players.

I think you're right, we need to step back and figure the long term view. I've been looking at it financially and it's not pretty if you tack on a $15M Pau. Your approach is solid. The cornerstone of your plan is drafting Yi, agreed? Where do you project Yi to play? - I think we both agree he projects to PF, please correct if I'm assuming wrong. Considering that, are you really comfortable with Smoove playing a majority of his minutes at 3? I just don't think he has the requisite skills for it. Smoove can be an elite PF, in my opinion, but misplaced and awkward at SF. I really want to see another year of Marvin to see if he will develop that dimension (inside scoring efficiency) that could allow him to become an elite SF. I still believe in Marvin's outside shot, and expect (no, demand) it to improve. At this point, if you think Marvin can't/won't get to where we want him, then I would agree that you look at see what type of C you can get back in trade to balance the roster.

jezmund, I think it might be a good idea to plug Zaza into the trade because he makes more sense for Memphis, but I'd pull Childress out. #3/Zaza/Craig/Lo for Pau. I still doubt we can sign Childress and Marvin and Smoove, but it's not the worst problem to have if you can get Pau. That deal helps Memphis inside and out, and in the future.

I say the answer to your question is yes, we could resign Smoove and Marvin, but have little available for anything else. In that scenario, you'd probably move Shelden (out of necessity) when his deal comes up, looking for low priced, older veteran role players, or else cheap young players who can fill bench roles. I'm arguing that signing Pau leads to a situation where our top 6 valued players take up the entire cap in two years time. That means somebody else has to go. I can almost see why, on paper, #3/Smoove/filler for Pau/protected '08 1st would make financial sense down the road from a team management standpoint. Basketball sense? Probably not.

I posted this in Sothron's thread, but I feel that maybe this is important enough to break out here for discussion: Gasol turns 27 in July. He's locked up for 4 more years, at the following annual salaries: $13,709,375 $15,080,312 $16,451,250 $17,822,187 I think #3/Chill/Craig begins to work from a talent and salary perspective. That deal would eat up our remaining cap, though. If we could also give them Lo that would be good. I have all the Hawks money on a spreadsheet. The #3/Chill/Craig deal works okay, but it's very close. It would allow us to resign Smoove at ~$10M per and come right up to the cap. There is NO way to do this deal without Craig in it, and still be able to resign Smoove. With Pau's money on board, I think we would soon find that we could not afford the luxury of keeping MW, Smoove, and Shelden. For instance, let's project to 2009, with a cap around $61M, projected by me: (i make some guesses with regards to resigned salary amounts) Pau: 16.4M JJ: 15M (in his last year), Smoove: 11M, Shelden: resigned at 6M, Marvin: resigned at 8.5M, #11 pick: 1.85M (due for resigning in 2010) That's almost $59M of a $61M cap in your top 6 players. You've still got potentially Solo and Zaza and Salim to sign, if you still want 'em at that point. But in order to stay near the cap, we'd have a pretty lousy bench to go along with that awesome 6. That's why I say that one of Smoove/Shell/MW might also have to go to make Pau work longterm. Do you want Yi and a deep bench, or Pau?? It's a tough, tough call.

Gasol turns 27 in July. He's locked up for 4 more years, at the following annual salaries: $13,709,375 $15,080,312 $16,451,250 $17,822,187 I think #3/Chill/Craig begins to work from a talent and salary perspective. That deal would eat up our remaining cap, though. If we could also give them Lo that would be good. I have all the Hawks money on a spreadsheet. The #3/Chill/Craig deal works okay, but it's very close. It would allow us to resign Smoove at ~$10M per and come right up to the cap. There is NO way to do this deal without Craig in it, and still be able to resign Smoove. With Pau's money on board, I think we would soon find that we could not afford the luxury of keeping MW, Smoove, and Shelden. For instance, let's project to 2009, with a cap around $61M, projected by me: (i make some guesses with regards to resigned salary amounts) Pau: 16.4M JJ: 15M (in his last year), Smoove: 11M, Shelden: resigned at 6M, Marvin: resigned at 8.5M, #11 pick: 1.85M (due for resigning in 2010) That's almost $59M of a $61M cap in your top 6 players. You've still got potentially Solo and Zaza and Salim to sign, if you still want 'em at that point. But in order to stay near the cap, we'd have a pretty lousy bench to go along with that awesome 6. That's why I say that one of Smoove/Shell/MW might also have to go to make Pau work longterm. Do you want Yi and a deep bench, or Pau?? It's a tough, tough call.

Thanks. I have to say that Gasol for #3, Chill, and filler would make a lot of sense. I would also say no to including #11, good job BK. Although, a part of me would be a little sad at this point to not have a go at drafting Yi. The head says Gasol would be a great choice right now, but emotions pull for Yi. I would put out the same deal for Amare or Aldridge/Jack. I just hope BK is really okay with Yi/Critt if the trades don't work out. I'm hopeful that he won't jump at a ripoff deal just to avoid more youth.

Shelden, at 6'8 actually has a natural advantage, especially considering his strength and bulk. In football, they tell you to "keep you pads down" to gain leverage. Shelden is even harder to move because he has the low leverage on you. Now, if we run into a guy who is eating him up on mid-range jumpers, you have to be able to counter that. But most of the time, I can live with an opposing C taking 12 foot hook shots and jumpers as opposed to layups and dunks.

Those are terrible trades. No wonder Sekou comes to this board for "news"...the sources here are hella lot better than his. Great catch of a direct and embarrassing contradiction.

Thanks for the game film! I watched 10 minutes of one. Yi has to deal with a lot of double teaming. He showed very good ability to pass out of the double. His team was trying to get the ball to him almost every time down. But Yi had trouble establishing position in the post. The man checking him was pretty good size and was being quite physical. In the time I saw I didn't really get to see much of Yi's offense, he had a few uncontested dunks. He did a couple bad things like put the ball on the floor when he was already in possession under the hoop. Also, a couple of times he was stripped pretty easily by much smaller guys. I'll watch some more - I want to see him drive. He does NOT camp out at the 3pt line. In fact, it seems he doesn't shoot long jumpers much at all. He's not like Dirk in that respect. He wants to go to the basket every time. He's a very good FT shooter. On offense, he either tries to post his man or plays pick and roll with the PG in the backcourt. He is very much playing a C role. His size doesn't really leap out at you.

That's a pretty good analysis. I agree that it squeezes Chills out. Some people don't want to hear that, but it makes sense to move him. He's probably as high in value as he will be, he doesn't have a position to play on this team, and he would need to be resigned this year. All of those things point to a move, and I know BK is well aware of this. That's another good reason to take Critt at #11. Although he really is a pure PG, he has all the ability and size to play SG as well - real versatility. Why do you think BK likes Critt? He would be able to provide those JJ backup minutes, while also backing up Craig at PG while he learns. Yi and Critt makes a lot of sense if we don't get a huge trade offer.

No one said this was a private workout - where are people getting that? On Sekou's blog, if you look for the comments that he posted below his "Cali" entry, he said as much. Now, at least we're getting an invite - we're not on some dreaded blacklist. If they let us watch, at least we can feel comfortable about the safety of choosing him if that turns out to be BK's choice. I wonder why we flew the whole org out there though? It's either to create a smokescreen or a true sign that we're really serious about Yi. It's not like BK at all, I wonder if ownership was involved in that? I don't even trust BK's ability to orchestrate a smokescreen at this point. Given Sothron's earlier suggestions, it looks very possible that Yi is the man, if we can't get a big trade to go down.

I see that Yao averaged 32 and 19 playing for Shanghai in his last year of CBA competition (!!). Yao as a rookie put up 13/8 in the NBA. He has improved every year, is now a 25/10 player. Yi is currently at 25/12 in CBA. Brandon Crump (Tennessee) seems to dominate the CBA with averages of 27/14. Crump put up 15/7 for UT in 2004. Tang Zhengdong is a big daddy (7ft, 270) over there, I've heard Yi has trouble with him in the post. Tang gets 28/10 in CBA, and he entered the 2006 draft and was not picked. Wang ZhiZhi is the other top player we can relate to he scores 27 a game, and I'm not sure how many boards. I don't know what this says other than what we already know, picking Yi is taking a chance. But, when you look at his skills its hard to see how that doesn't translate in the NBA. Wang is just an outside shooting freak who couldn't get his shot in the NBA, so no surprise he busted. Tang is big body but not very athletic. Crump could probably be a backup PF in the NBA with his size (6'10", 270). I imagine Crump plays physical over there and just has his way with all the skinny dudes. When Yi's team goes against these guys, he's forced to man up against these guys who are much stronger than him. In the NBA, no one would play him as a center the way they do in the CBA. He will be asked to defend 3's and 4's, and it will be interesting to see how he does. Right now I'm in between Yi and Horford for #3 if we can't make a deal.

I think they might be interested in Zaza. Zaza would seem to pair up well with Howard in the frontcourt. Grant Hill needs a replacement, and I'd be selling Childress. Zaza/Childress for SNT Darko. Depends on what Darko resigns for - i would say something starting at 7-8 mil would be reasonable. Zaza+Childress = 6.9 mil, and we have plenty of other filler if needed (AJ or Lo) Crit/JJ/Smoove/Yi/Darko +Craig/Lue/Slim/Marvin/Shelden/Solo not too shabby

No, but we could do a SNT. That would actually be preferable because we will have too many guys signed to contracts at this rate.

I agree with you TP. If Yi really is a clear-cut choice as the BPA at #3, you get to work on lining up a trade for a C who can play defense. Getting Yi opens the door for moving a SF, along with Zaza, plus other filler (you move Zaza because you're targeting a C in return). What could we get for Chill/Zaza/Lue? That's about $10.3 M in salary. This is the hard part, as we know. There just aren't a ton of guys that fit the bill, and without some big defense playing along side, the Yi pick loses some luster. Maybe Dalembert? I would also be open to plugging Marvin in there, but only if the return is REALLY good. Maybe a re-signed Okafor? Camby?

I really like Jack and I readily admit I'm a big Tech fan, but I don't know about this. If it's just Jack for #11, I'm not sure that is a very good value. I believe Critt is just more talented in just about every phase. Critt as a freshman was nearly as effective as Jack as a junior. I'm willing to wait a couple of years on a PG to develop. First of all we're not going to top of the East immediately anyway. Second of all we do have Craig and he's probably not going anywhere. To critique Jack, on the one hand you see that his game really progressed from his 1st to 2nd season. In about 60% more minutes, he did nearly double his assists, scoring, and steals. He also improved his shooting in all phases. He is a developing player and he will become even more efficient. He's a leader and a high character/motivation guy, evidenced by the fact he was a captain this year for Portland in his second year. On the other hand, I'm not as sure about his NBA defensive prowess. 82games.com actually shows that his opponent out produces him pretty significantly. I'm not sure how much of that is a product of being on a bad team - maybe that's all it is. He does have a defensive reputation, and I can vouch that he was an effective defender in college. I'm just hoping that Portland's supposed ability to get the #11 pick would be part of a greater deal - which doesn't appear to be the case.

You're probably right. The GS dream frontcourt would probably be Yi + Biedrins. That would be absolutely killer - i'd like to see that happen from an interest standpoint. Unfortunately, GS will find it very difficult to trade up.

You see Biedrins as untradeable, really? On paper, he looks to be a 10/9 guy who has a limited offensive game and is lousy at the stripe. He didn't even start every game (69 starts, 82 games played). But what he does bring, apparently, in defense, energy, and rebounding is exactly what the Hawks need from that position. I was more concerned that the #3 is too much for him.

I would also be inclined to simplify this deal to #3 for Biedrins, and whatever filler would be required on either side. I personally don't see a need for Ellis if you are still picking a PG at #11 (my preference too). Biedrins would arguably be a better answer at C than Horford or Noah or Hawes. Plus he has a few years of experience so he is ready to go. Nellie might be crazy enough to try this. I've also read somewhere that he was VERY high on Yi. Can someone argue for and against Biedrins? I liked what I saw in the Dallas series, but I haven't seen enough to make a real strong argument in either direction. Specifically, I'd like to know if he is strong enough to man up defensively in the post. Obvi, he's not a good free throw shooter or create-your-own shot offensive option.

Actually, I've read that GS is VERY high on Yi. I kicked around in my head Ellis/Biedrins for #3. I haven't really decided if that's a good or even possible deal. But it's an interesting scenario.

Great trade, if Memphis does indeed value Randolph. I like it from Portland's end because it seems they would like to get rid of Randolph, plus they get a veteran PG to bring Conley along. Craig is not complete garbage, just paid a little too much. From our end it's a killer deal, since we get away from our worst two contracts (craig and lo), deal from a position of strength (SF) with Childress, and get back the star big player and steady point. Solves the SF logjam. Salary-cap friendly - now we would only need to resign Smoove this year (not Childress too). The more I think about it, the more I realize Childress has to go, not because I don't like him, but because his value is as high as its going to be, he's in the last year of his rookie deal, and we have roster holes that he can help address in trade. He would be a great piece to have if our roster was complete, but alas, its not. If we could somehow do this deal, we could draft BPA at #11, which could be a project big (Noah/Hawes) or a versatile forward to groom (Thornton, Thad, Brewer, Green). I would maybe choose Thornton because all of a sudden we would need a backup SF. That would be a darn good 12 man team, with quality backups at every spot: Jack/JJ/Marvin/Smoove/Gasol bench: Lue/AJ/Salim/Shelden/Solo/Zaza/Thornton

You traded them 5 backup players for 2 starters. Shelden might have starter quality, but your deal leaves him behind Aldridge and Oden, so he's on the bench.

coachx, I did mean the Bogut comparison as a compliment. I have to agree Hawes seems to have a well-rounded game and I would be pleased to add him to the Hawks. We need a few more international players to get hyped into the 4-10 picks so we can get Hawes to slide! If Hawes really looks good in workouts, and we like his value better than Horford/Yi/Wright/etc, we might look to trade down with Boston or someone else in the 5-8 range to grab Hawes. I just hate the idea of spending a #3 pick on a 6 foot freshman guard who has an incomplete skill set, when we are desperate need of scoring punch.