Insider Special: Best/Worst ~ Mavs

[Weez]

By Marc Stein

ESPN.com

Editor's note: Here's a glimpse of the good -- and the bad -- that could happen to the 2003-04 Dallas Mavericks.

Eduardo Najera is a key component of the Dallas bench.

Best Case Scenario

Three things need to happen for the Mavericks to keep their top-four slot in the West and perhaps even sneak past San Antonio for the Midwest Division title.

1. Develop a passing game to go with the run. Strange as it sounds, given the Mavericks' standing last season as the league's most potent offense, they actually regressed in the passing department since trading away Nick Van Exel. That's one of the main reasons Don Nelson wanted Antoine Walker. It's not just Nelson's long-standing obsession with the notion of a point forward. It's because Dirk Nowitzki, whose passing skills are still in the developmental stage, was this team's second-best passer until Walker arrived. "That's why Nash has the ball all the time," Nelson said. If Walker plays the way Dallas envisions, now they have someone else besides Nash to make plays.

2. Ride the benefits of a deep bench. Mavs insiders chuckle at how they managed to be classified as a deep team last season, because they weren't deep at all. Dallas' reserves last season were generally no better defensively than the starters, and they compounded that shortcoming with an ability to score. Dallas was only going as far as Nowitzki, Nash, Van Exel and Michael Finley were going to haul them, and when Nowitzki went out in the San Antonio series, that was their season. Now, though, Nelson has beaucoup options. Antawn Jamison has volunteered to fill the sixth-man role, and there are a variety of handy reserves behind him: Eduardo Najera, Travis Best, Tony Delk, Tariq Abdul-Wahad, Shawn Bradley and promising rookie Josh Howard. It remains to be seen what kind of playoff team this will be, but the Mavericks have plenty of firepower to get through 82 games. Having so many able bodies also doesn't hurt Dallas' ability to make more trades down the road.

3. Someone new steps up to regularly fire up the squad. Van Exel and Avery Johnson were the Mavericks' vocal leaders last season, but they're both in Golden State. Nowitzki, Nash and Finley are Dallas' new tri-captains, but none of them is a fiery sort like the two departed lefties. "Usually you can't lead without playing," Nelson said, "but Avery did it about as well as anyone could do it." The in-house hope is that Walker can help in this area, too, whether it's getting in the faces of teammates or opponents.

Worst Case Scenario

The Mavericks will lose their spot in the top four to Minnesota and win closer to 50 games than 60 if the following three things happen.

1. The defense rests. Easily forgotten amid all the jokes about the Allas Mavericks (No D) is that they actually improved their resistance significantly last season. Opponents shot only 43.8 percent from the field, a franchise record. They also dropped from 101 points per game allowed in 2001-02 to 95.2 in 2002-03 ... all while leading the league in scoring. Of course, none of that means anything if the Mavericks don't continue to make defense a priority, starting with Nowitzki. Problem is, with so many new faces -- and two more new guys arriving this week -- the Mavericks have considerable work to do just to get their defense up to last season's standards. They run more zone schemes and combo defenses than any team in the league, and they change looks within a game more than anyone else. It's a lot for newcomers to learn, especially since none of the newbies is a defensive specialist to start with. Rebounding, likewise, remains an area of major concern, because it's usually the concession of an offensive rebound that leads to Dallas' defensive breakdowns, after the Mavs make the first stop. We're curious to see how much Danny Fortson, Walker and Jamison can help the Mavericks on the boards.

2. 'Toine or 'Twan can't handle the pressure. If the Mavs do slip, or merely start slow, the blame will undoubtedly be placed on the new guys. Fair or not, Walker and Jamison are going to be compared to what Gary Payton and Karl Malone are doing in Los Angeles, and to Latrell Sprewell and Sam Cassell in Minnesota. For Walker, a cocky veteran who fell just a couple wins shy of an NBA Finals berth two years ago, this is probably less of a concern. Jamison, though, knows he's going to get this question a lot, given that he's never appeared in a playoff game. "When we start the playoffs, that's when it's going to hit," Jamison said. "But it won't be a problem."

3. Something bad happens to The Big Three, injury or otherwise. Nash is too selfless to let his uncertain contract future -- he will opt for free agency at season's end -- affect his play or the team's. Durability is a more likely source of trouble for each member of the Dallas core. Nowitzki's bad luck with ankle sprains has resurfaced already. Nelson, meanwhile, says he will continue to scale back the minutes for Nash and Finley, who will both be thirtysomethings next spring. Nelson insists that he won't let Nash play more than 32 minutes a game, even though Van Exel is no longer available to spell him, and the coach wants to lessen the load on Finley's hamstrings after playing him non-stop in the early years of the Nellie Era. The good news? With as many offensive weapons as the Mavericks have now, easing the 82-game burden on the Big Three should be easier than ever.

Marc Stein is the senior NBA writer for ESPN.com. To e-mail him, click here. Also, send Stein a question for possible use on ESPNEWS.