2024 Hawks Offseason Thread: Lottery Bound

[JayBirdHawk]

Long Season trending into a Very Long Offseason.  The target is firmly and squarely placed on Ownership and the Front Office.  The biggest offseason for a very young front office in Landry and Kyle.

State of the roster: There is a famous quote often misattributed to Albert Einstein: "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." That would apply to the Hawks if general manager Landry Fields elects to bring back the same roster after Atlanta missed the playoffs for the first time since 2020. The Hawks can point to injuries (seventh-most missed games) to explain why the roster won five fewer games than last season, but they were 24-32 even before Trae Young's torn ligament in his left hand in late February, but Fields and the ownership group elected to keep this group together at the deadline.


"You don't ever want to get caught up in this term called 'resulting,' " Fields said right after the deadline. "And for us, a lot of times you look at results, and that's where the judgment comes in. From our standpoint, development is a key feature of who we are and we are watching players continuously grow. It may not completely cause the results today that we want, but we also know that those results are coming."

The results, however, are regressing. The Hawks are 46-56 since Quin Snyder took over last February. The $67 million backcourt of Young and Dejounte Murray continues to struggle playing together. Starting in 2025, Atlanta has no control over its first-round pick for the next three years. And the Hawks will be over the luxury tax next season if the roster stays intact. Paying the tax for a play-in team should be a nonstarter for ownership. The positive is that Atlanta is in a position to retool the roster, not rebuild completely if the objective is to move Murray or even Young. Atlanta has a young core of players in Bey, Onyeka Okongwu, AJ Griffin, Kobe Bufkin and Jalen Johnson. The Hawks will also add a pick in the lottery and another first if the Kings reach the first-round.

Offseason finances: The Hawks avoided the luxury tax this season, electing to trade starter John Collins last offseason in a salary dump move. This summer, Atlanta once again is pressed not only against the $171 million tax threshold but also the $178.7 million first apron. Including both first-round picks (if the Kings' pick conveys), Atlanta has $171 million in salary. Barring a trade, the Hawks will exceed the first apron they re-sign Bey, who tore his left ACL in March. Atlanta will likely tender him a one-year, $8.4 million qualifying offer by June 29, making him a restricted free agent. Atlanta does have some flexibility with the non-guaranteed contracts of Mathews and Bruno Fernando. Atlanta has until June 29 to exercise Mathews' $2.2 million team option and to guarantee Fernando's $2.7 million contract. Because of their finances, the Hawks will only have the veterans minimum exception available to use in free agency. They have a large $23 million trade exception that expires July 7.

Top front office priority: Fields was honest in February when asked about Murray and Young playing together.

"The sample size is getting larger and larger and larger and assuming you're looking at specific lineups, and defensive and offensive ratings, which can always be debated as well," he told reporters. "I can't lie to you, the numbers speak to themselves on that."

Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta was outscored by 6.0 per 100 possessions this season when both players were on the court together. The Hawks had a 120.7 defensive efficiency rating in their shared minutes, fifth worst among more than 225 duos to play 1,000 minutes together. The most-used lineup of Young, Murray, Bey, Johnson and Clint Capela had a net rating of minus-15.3. When both Young and Murray were off the court, Atlanta had a defensive efficiency that would have ranked second. The Hawks went 12-11 and ranked 15th in offensive and 18th in defensive efficiency in the games Young missed with his ligament injury. Murray is entering Year 1 of a four-year, $120 million extension. His $24.8 million cap hit is $20 million less than a max player. Murray had 11 games with 20 points and 10 assists, all with Young out of the lineup. Young has two years left on his contract ($43 million and $46 million) and can become a free agent in 2026.

Extension candidate to watch: The Hawks have up until Oct. 21 to extend Johnson. The forward averaged career highs in points (16.1) and 3-point percentage (35.3%). Overall, Johnson has increased his scoring average from 5.6 last season to 16.1 this season. That is the second-largest increase among players to play at least 50 games in both seasons, trailing Cam Thomas. Johnson ranked in the bottom-10 in field goal percentage on all jumpers last season but saw an increase this year, going from 29% to 39%. Since Fields joined the front office in October 2020, Atlanta has signed a player to a rookie extension in each of the past three offseasons (Young, Kevin Huerter, De'Andre Hunter and Okongwu). Young is eligible to sign a three-year, $157 million extension up until Oct. 21.

Other extension candidates: Capela, Mathews and Fernando (as of Oct. 2)

Team needs: Perimeter defenders and rim protection. The Hawks ranked 17th in 3-point percentage allowed and 25th in points in the paint allowed.

Future draft assets: The June draft is the last time that Atlanta has control over its own first-round pick until 2028. The Hawks will send their 2025 and 2027 picks to the Spurs as part of the trade that brought Murray to Atlanta in 2022. San Antonio also has the right to swap firsts in 2026. The first allowable year the Hawks can trade a first is in 2029. Atlanta has six second-round picks available.

NBA offseason 2024: Guides for every eliminated NBA team - ESPN

[JayBirdHawk]

We need to get DEFENSE and be BIGGER, add more length and athleticism, be more versatile across the board, need toughness.

[theheroatl]

12 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

We need to get DEFENSE and be BIGGER, add more length and athleticism, be more versatile across the board, need toughness.

That is basically it.

Find out who is the offense.. is it Trae? And surround them with reliable defenders in and outside the paint..

Delon Wright

Drummond

Thybulle

 

you name it..

[KB21]

4 minutes ago, theheroatl said:

That is basically it.

Find out who is the offense.. is it Trae? And surround them with reliable defenders in and outside the paint..

Delon Wright

Drummond

Thybulle

 

you name it..

You can't ignore shooting with this.  Trae needs defenders who can shoot around him.  

Also, in no way, shape, or form is Drummond a starting big in today's NBA.  His game isn't diverse enough.  No perimeter offense.  No switchability on defense.  

Edited April 18 by KB21

[Spud2nique]

12 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Drummond

@kg01 I laughed hard when Mr. Drummond hosed over his own dude  

[Spud2nique]

BR love on trades..

 

Warning though: dude running the show just said Hawks could be hurting on defense since Kevin Huerter left?  

 

@kg01 popped in the fan section with a Pels trade as you can see  

[NBASupes]

1. Offensive 5 that works with Trae. If you aren't riding with Trae. The 5 isn't the biggest issue. They need another star that's a better fit with Murray.

2. Murray and Trae don't work but the value has to be there. The value for Trae is massively more important to us than Murray but we value Murray more than anyone not named Trae. 

3. We need another vet who's a POA wing to join Dre. 

4. PAY THE LT, TONY

[NBASupes]

9 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

BR love on trades..

 

Warning though: dude running the show just said Hawks could be hurting on defense since Kevin Huerter left?  

 

@kg01 popped in the fan section with a Pels trade as you can see  

Zion in Atlanta is a good look. Murray and Zion is a good look

Edited April 18 by NBASupes

[KB21]

That "offensive 5" has to also be either an elite rim protector or a switchable defender who can guard multiple positions.  We can't have a weak defender at both point guard and center going forward.

[JayBirdHawk]

 

[Spud2nique]

3 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Murray and Zion is a good look

Trae and Zion. Trae won’t be traded.  

[kg01]

1 hour ago, Spud2nique said:

@kg01 I laughed hard when Mr. Drummond hosed over his own dude  

Yeah, me too.  I laughed real hard when Caruso got hurt uh  ... I mean, never be happy somebody got hurt.  That's just wrong, kg. 

14 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

BR love on trades..

 

Warning though: dude running the show just said Hawks could be hurting on defense since Kevin Huerter left?  

 

@kg01 popped in the fan section with a Pels trade as you can see  

Heh, some dude said Capela 'carried'.  People are funny.  And, if that was me, why didn't they refer to them as the Pelican'ts? 

[kg01]

8 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Zion in Atlanta is a good look. Murray and Zion is a good look

How long before, like with JoeLLLL, folks stop believing he'll be healthy enough to lead anything? 

[Spud2nique]

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

Yeah, me too.  I laughed real hard when Caruso got hurt uh  ... I mean, never be happy somebody got hurt.  That's just wrong, kg. 

Heh, some dude said Capela 'carried'.  People are funny.  And, if that was me, why didn't they refer to them as the Pelican'ts? 

I was listening right up to the point where dude said..

Could it be the Hawks defense collapsed when Kevin Huerter left? 
 

Me:  have you watched a Hawks game in the past ever sir?

Just now, kg01 said:

How long before, like with JoeLLLL, folks stop believing he'll be healthy enough to lead anything? 

NO!!! @hazerdream of Joel from 4 years ago can’t come true dude is injured a ton.

[KB21]

7 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

I wonder why they used a photo with Wes Wilcox in it?

[Hawkmoor]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

We need to get DEFENSE and be BIGGER, add more length and athleticism, be more versatile across the board, need toughness.

I agree with the first part.  As far as length and athleticism, they already got that with Johnson and MAYBE with a healthy Okongwu.  6' 8" is tall enough in today's NBA.  Very few teams present a problem for you if you deploy that (Milwaukee, etc.).

Since most likely they will attempt to move Murray and keep Trae, they need a defense ONLY shooting guard to rotate out with Bogi.  Teams get the ball into the paint too easily with the combo of Murray and Trae.  The last part of this is the most amazing part:  Capela is garbage as a athletic scoring big but IS one of the best fits on this team for Young as highlighted by what Quin did yesterday. Outside of Murray freelancing, Capela was the team's best offensive option with Johnson out. They went back to Young and Capela's bread and butter pick and roll.  I need to see game film but it even looked like they were working backside screens for Capela to get them lobs also.

[kg01]

1 minute ago, KB21 said:

I wonder why they used a photo with Wes Wilcox in it?

I knew I wasn't crazy.  Or are they breaking news?  Wes is secretly a Ressler? 

[KB21]

If your answer to the Hawks woes is to pair Trae with Zach Edey, then you might as well just say f*** playing defense as a whole, get the best offensive players you can find at the other three spots, and try to win games 160-155 because a team will NEVER have a top 10 caliber defense with Trae Young at point and Zach Edey at center.  

[JayBirdHawk]

3 minutes ago, KB21 said:

I wonder why they used a photo with Wes Wilcox in it?

I kept wondering and wondering 

[Spud2nique]

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

I knew I wasn't crazy.  Or are they breaking news?  Wes is secretly a Ressler? 

My son…. {reaching like Dr evil for a hug}..

Just now, JayBirdHawk said:

I kept wondering and wondering 

Get Bud in there and Josh Maggette and we have a family reunion of sorts..