Peachtree Hoops: Atlanta Hawks All-Star Break Analysis: all eyes on the offense

[Hawksquawk]

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Making sense of the Atlanta Hawks’ recent form.

It’s been a topsy-turvy season for the Atlanta Hawks, and the last three weeks have been no different.

After Luka Doncic torched them for 73 points on January 26th, the Hawks put together one of their best stretches of basketball of the season, winning six out of their next nine games before being blown out by 23 points by the cellar-dwelling Charlotte Hornets in their final game before the All-Star break.

Wednesday’s game had all the making of a trap game, yet even with that in mind, Atlanta’s performance left a lot to be desired.

The Hawks looked lifeless on both ends of the floor, suffered a significant disparity in three-point shooting (9-for-38 for Atlanta vs. 15-for-37 for Charlotte), points in the paint (52-42 in favor of Charlotte), and were outscored 21-2 in fastbreak points.

Frankly, it was an embarrassing showing from a team that is expected to be in “must-win” mode for the rest of the season as they currently sit seven games below .500 and six games behind the Orlando Magic for the 8-seed* in the Eastern Conference.

*and the guarantee of a “win and you’re in” Play-In game

Head coach Quin Snyder didn’t mince words in his post-game press conference, saying:

“Obviously we didn’t shoot the ball well, and that could cover up some things, but we just need to compete more. It’s disappointing because we’ve been doing that. Whether we left early for the break, whatever you want to attribute it to… we can’t do that. We have to compete. We had some individual guys who did that but collectively that was not the case.”

“There’s a lot of things that externally can happen that distract you from the way that you have to play. Whether it’s officials, or Clint and (Okongwu) being out, or missed shots, those things in some way, shape or form are going to come to you every game, it’s just a question of degree, and that can’t be an excuse for the effort that we had tonight. It just wasn’t… we just can’t accept that, collectively.”

“Competitiveness” and “effort” are two areas where the Hawks’ simply cannot be outdone by their opponents going forwards yet, and while their performance in Charlotte was undeniably poor, it’s never a good idea to overreact to a single game — particularly one where the team was missing their top two centers.

If you look past their dud of a performance on Wednesday, the Hawks have shown some real signs of progress over the past three weeks, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.

Through the first 45 games of the season, Atlanta ranked 14th in offensive rating, scoring 116.7 points per 100 possessions. However, over their past 10 games, the Hawks have posted the No. 1 offensive rating in the league, scoring 121.7 points per 100 possessions.

SIGNS OF PROGRESS FOR ATLANTA’S OFFENSE

While a number of factors have contributed to this recent offensive success, perhaps the biggest one has been the dramatic improvement seen in both their rim shooting frequency and accuracy since January 27th*. But what’s driving this improvement?

*As seen in the table above, since January 27th, Atlanta has increased their rim-shooting frequency from 29.2% to 32.9%, and have improved their conversion rate from 61.9% to 67.5%.

For one, the Hawks have done a better job of using both ball movement and player movement in the half-court in order to create easier looks around the basket. Atlanta has upped their assist percentage from 59.6% to 62.6% over the past three weeks* thanks to an uptick in plays like the ones below.

In the possession above, Jalen Johnson has a mismatch in the post, and draws two Raptors defenders to the ball. Johnson kicks it out to Trae Young, who blows past Scottie Barnes’ closeout and draws a help defender before hitting Clint Capela for an alley-oop.

Against Phoenix, the Suns switch this 1-5 pick-and-roll, leaving Okongwu being guarded by the smaller Eric Gordon. Murray wastes no time and swings the ball to Bogdan Bogdanovic on the wing, who drives past Bradley Beal, then throws up a lob for Okongwu to throw down.

In the possession above from their game against Houston, Young is being overplayed by Dillon Brooks on the perimeter, and uses a nice give-and-go action with Murray to get past Brooks before setting up Okongwu for a dunk.

This is a beautifully designed play from a little later on in the Rockets game. Jalen Johnson starts with the ball at the top of the key, while Saddiq Bey and Dejounte Murray have a two-on-two matchup on the left-side of the court.

Bey sets an inside screen on Murray’s man, which forces Dillon Brooks to come up to the level of the screen, then rolls hard to the basket. Murray goes into a dribble handoff with Johnson, then zips a pass to the cutting Bey for a dunk.

With Trae Young above the break, and Onyeka Okongwu camped in the corner, Houston has minimal protection at the rim, making this an easier finish for Bey.

While the Hawks have certainly been sharing the ball more, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the improved shooting we’ve seen from Trae Young during this recent stretch, and the impact this has had on the team’s ability to create shots at the rim.

Since January 27th, Young has shot 40.7% from the perimeter — including a 42% mark on non-heave, above the break threes, which is nearly 5% higher than his season-long efficiency on these types of shots (37.2%) per pbpstats.

In the two clips above from their game against Phoenix, Young nails a deep three at the 7:27 mark of the first quarter, then, a few possessions later, uses a pump fake from the same spot to freeze Grayson Allen and Jusuf Nurkic, before setting up Jalen Johnson for the easy slam.

From their game against the Lakers, Young hits his sixth three of the game at the 1:37 mark of the third quarter. Then on their next possession, he picks up the double team and immediately throws a perfect pass over the top of the defense to Okongwu for two points.

Young is always priority No. 1 for opposing defenses, and I’m not suggesting that Atlanta’s opponents haven’t been throwing multiple defenders at Young all season long. But when he has it rolling like he has over the past ten games, it forces defenses to respect him a little bit more, which in turn, helps the team generate high quality shots at the basket.

In this crunch time possession from the Golden State game, the Warriors load up on Young, who quickly whips a pass to Bogdanovic, who swings the ball to Murray, who fakes a pass to Jalen in the corner, before blowing past Klay Thompson on the perimeter. This forces Draymond Green to help off of Okongwu, leaving him wide open for a slam*

*hat-tip to Murray for a brilliant assist too

While the Hawks’ ball movement was critical to the outcome of the play, the initial advantage was created when Young drew two Warriors’ defenders then passed out of the double team.

On this possession against the Suns, two players pick up Young at half-court, and he does a good job getting off the ball quickly. It takes two passes for the ball to get to Jalen Johnson in the center of the floor with a 4-on-3 advantage, and with Phoenix’s big man still stuck to Young at the logo, it’s an easy two points for Clint Capela.

Another area that’s been crucial to Atlanta’s recent offensive success that I’d like to hit on is their corner three-point shooting frequency.

Bringing the focus back to the team’s shot profile; since January 27th, the Hawks rank first in the league in corner three frequency, and are creating these looks at a significantly higher rate than they were through the first 45 games of the season.

In the possession above from a game against Boston, the Hawks’ force multiple shot contests at the rim before Okongwu makes an acrobatic pass to Saddiq Bey for a wide open three.

In this possession from the Clippers game, Atlanta uses some nice ball movement and multiple drives to get the defense scrambling before Wesley Matthews finds Bogdan Bogdanovic for a good look from three.

On a different possession from the Clippers game, Russel Westbrook tags Bruno Fernando’s roll but is too slow to recover to De’Andre Hunter in the corner after Young kicks it out, and Hunter splashes the triple.

It’s no secret that shots at the rim and corner threes are the two highest value shots in the game, and with Atlanta becoming a greater threat to score from both areas, they have put defenses between a rock and a hard place* more often, resulting in a more efficient offense.

*making them choose between defending the rim or defending the corner

CONCLUSION

The Atlanta Hawks have posted the No. 1 offensive rating in the league over the past three weeks by prioritizing ball movement, points in the paint and corner threes. Of course, Trae Young’s improved perimeter shooting has helped grease their wheels, but as a team, the biggest takeaway from the last three weeks’ has been their improvement in the three categories highlighted above.

The question the Hawks have to answer when they return from All-Star break is whether or not they can sustain this form.

Against Charlotte, they struggled to convert their shots at the rim and only took six corner-threes all game long. One would hope that a healthy center rotation will show this performance to be an anomaly rather than a return to their “pre-January 27th” form, but it’s honestly hard to be certain about anything regarding this Atlanta Hawks’ team.

What we do know is that ball movement, points in the paint, and corner threes are this team’s blueprint for a successful offense. Now it’s on the players to execute.

Atlanta’s first game post-All Star break is this Friday, where they’ll be taking on the Toronto Raptors at State Farm Arena.

I know what I’ll be watching for.

Disclaimer: All statistics used in this article are from either basketballreference.com, pbpstats.com, nba.com/stats, or cleaningtheglass.com.

View the full article