Peachtree Hoops: Hawks gear up for final stretch of season

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Photo by Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images

The Hawks have a difficult schedule to end the season; let’s break it down.

The Atlanta Hawks, it’s safe to say, haven’t enjoyed the season they’ve wanted to up to this point at the All-Star break.

The Hawks sit 10th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 24-31, and they occupy a weird space where, barring massive upswings in form for either themselves or their rivals, they are basically all set for a 9-10 Play-In tie with Chicago Bulls. Atlanta is two games adrift of the Bulls for ninth, six games adrift of the Orlando Magic in eighth, with another 2.5 games ahead of the struggling Brooklyn Nets, who have just made a coaching change, so it’s possible they could see a turn in form under Kevin Ollie.

Or is it as simple as all that? What does the road ahead look like for the Hawks? Let’s take a look at the Hawks’ remaining schedule across February, March, and April and see how things are laid out and if there’s any hope of at least having home court for a Play-In game.

Starting with the remainder of February:

Total games: 4

Home games: 3

Road games: 1

Back-to-backs: 0

Longest road trip: 1 game

Longest homestand: 3 games

Opponent winning percentage: 43%

A light return to action for the Hawks, all things considered — three of these four games against Eastern Conference opponents who surround the Hawks in the standings. The Magic and Raptors are on opposite ends of the spectrum of Atlanta reach, with wins or losses either way not likely to change matters significantly.

However, the Brooklyn game does have some bearing on affairs, as the Hawks have the chance to put them at distance — denting Nets’ hopes of making the Play-In game — and a loss keeps Brooklyn within touching distance. The two sides have produced close games this season, the Hawks prevailing in overtime by two points in November (Mikal Bridges going for 45 points) and the Nets securing a one point victory in December with Bridges scoring the winner with five seconds remaining, so this will be a match of intrigue.

The Hawks will also welcome John Collins for his first game back in Atlanta since being traded last year as the Utah Jazz roll into town. The Jazz are also in urgent need of a victory with their own Play-In prospects beginning to look a little bleaker as their struggles have coincided with the Lakers and Warriors finding some form, so there will be pressure for the Hawks to take care of business.

Now onto March:

Total games: 15

Home games: 7

Road games: 8

Back-to-backs: 2

Longest road trip: 5 game

Longest homestand: 5 games

Average projected opponent winning percentage: 52.6%

Safe to say a very difficult March lies ahead for the Hawks. Some very winnable games, such as the two games against the Trail Blazers, a game against the struggling Hornets and Grizzlies, but basically everything else on the table is a lot more difficult in prospect.

Another hugely important game against the Nets to begin the month — either to strike back or to extend the advantage. If the Hawks can win both of those game against the Nets, it’s basically a done deal that the Hawks will be back in the Play-In. But it’s hard to escape all of those good teams after that: the Knicks, the Cavs and the Pelicans are all playoff-bound teams before the Hawks embark on a five-game Western Conference trip with three tough games to end on in L.A. and Phoenix.

While a five game homestand awaits the Hawks when they return, it can’t exactly be called a pleasant homecoming: two of those fixtures are against the league-leading Boston Celtics, as well as the Milwaukee Bucks. The one saving grace, potentially, for the Hawks in those Boston fixtures is that with the lead the Celtics currently enjoy, they may already be deciding to rest some key members prior to the playoffs — but that’s mere speculation as of right now.

Finally, to April:

Total games: 8

Home games: 3

Road games: 5

Back-to-backs: 2

Longest road trip: 2 games

Longest homestand: 2 games

Average projected opponent winning percentage: 48.8%

This is not the easiest of weeks to finish, including road games against playoff-bound teams as well as an early preview of the likely Play-In game with the Bulls which both teams will likely know prior to the game itself. Will they face each other at full strength or keep something in reserve for the Play-In game?

Some very winnable games at home to the Pistons and Hornets will help boost the Hawks’ win tally, but will it be enough to either put them in a position to overturn the Bulls or stay ahead of the Nets?

In terms of strength of schedule, the Hawks have the 16th most difficult schedule remaining, 50.2%. The Bulls are right alongside the Hawks at 17th, but it’s the Brooklyn Nets that are an interesting mix here: they have the second easiest schedule remaining and face the Pistons twice, the Raptors three times and the Grizzlies twice, as well as the Hornets and Wizards.

While many will be quick (for very good reason) to pencil the Hawks into a Play-In matchup against the Bulls, it may not as simple as that. There’s a tricky schedule ahead for the Hawks with the Nets not a million miles away, and now with a coaching change, there is a possibility that the Hawks have to factor the Nets into the equation. But how much so will certainly depend on those two early games they play against each other in the run-in here.

That’s how the road ahead looks for the Atlanta Hawks. Do they have another level to reach, or is their destiny set no matter what they discover after the break?

We shall soon see...

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