crimedog

I think Smith is the the guy they are considering the most because he is the most talented, but given an equal amount of money he is the most likely to be matched ownership or not. If the Clippers throw the max at Smith, ASG considers matching because Smith is already talented and has a boatload of potential and the team has had the most support, by a considerable margin, in a long time and Smith may be the most recognizable player on the team (to the casual Atlanta fan). Now they might end up letting him walk, but they certainly wouldn't do so without thinking. Charlotte doesn't have those same things going for it. There is a much greater chance that Mek, who will be 26 by the start of the next season, has reached his peak. They aren't coming off a big year and the potential for gaining or losing revenue probably isn't as high. Larry Brown or no, Charlotte doesn't match a max deal.

Quote: Now, if Smith gets signed to a max offer by LAC, I could understand why ASG wouldn't want to spend their money on that but they have to be prepared for the reprecussions of that, I know there are fans out there waiting to see what happens before spending their money. That is more than fair in my opinion. Look, sports are entertainment. Enjoying a basketball team takes commitment - it takes a lot of time and a lot of money. Its fine that the Chi fans are so loyal to their team even when its terrible but I don't see why I should waste my time and money watching a game if I don't find the play or the players entertaining. I'm happy people didn't show up during the JET/SAR era, it probably made that era come to an end quicker. People shouldn't be bashed because they don't want to waste their money going to see a team that can't put out a good product. You wouldn't go see a movie if it sucked just because one of the actors was from your home town, you wouldn't buy a CD just because the studio was in your city, I'm not going to blow $50 to watch a boring-ass team lose.

Quote: Al Thornton is older than most rookies and he played most of last season at age 24. As a result, he was much more physically developed and he was more ready to compete physically than the average rookie. I think his draft stock went down quite a bit because he was older and many people thought he had less room for improvement than guys like Jeff Green, Yi or Corey Brewer. That may very well have been a mistake but it will be interesting to see if those guys live up to their potential and surpass Thornton as a player in time. I think those concerns are legit. He was more experienced and physically developed but he has a very low bball IQ. I think he'll always be able to score, even his detractors had to know that about him, but there are still questions about whether he'll ever be able to do anything more than just score. As far as Marv, I'm not a Marv fan but he was better than Thornton this season. Thornton certainly has the "go-to" abilities that Marv lacks but as of right now he is a fairly innefficient scorer who doesn't play D. He does have more value though, he is a lot cheaper for the next few years and he isn't coming up on a contract.

The home attendance has been going up since ASG took over, even that disaster of a 13 win season saw a decent increase in attendance. This season we saw a 9% jump in attendance. I think, as much as ASG and BK did wrong, that they put out a better product than what came before. The JET/SAR era was not fun at all. It was more fun to watch the kids dunk in the 13 W season that to watch the garbage that was going on before that. We have more exciting players now. I talk ball with some folks around my office here in New York and they LOVE the Hawks - whenever we talk I hear things about how Joe Johnson is the most underated player in the league and how Josh Smith is the next superstar of the A or whatever. No one would say something like that about Rider, SAR, Terry, old Glenn R... Now, if Smith gets signed to a max offer by LAC, I could understand why ASG wouldn't want to spend their money on that but they have to be prepared for the reprecussions of that, I know there are fans out there waiting to see what happens before spending their money.

Yeah, I'd trade Smith for Bynum but the Lakers wouldn't unless they knew something about his knee.

Quote: I agree with you 100% from and offensive perspective. If Smoove leaves we may actually be a better offensive team or at least more efficient. Horford and Marvin will get more touches and COULD develop quicker. However, we would be so much worse defesively that we end up with a big loss and no gain. Marvin guarding PFs is real ugly. ZaZa guarding anyone is even uglier. If we lose Smoove we HAVE to sign either K. Brown or Elson using part of the $5.86 MLE to help supplement the defense. The offense will be OK. the defense will be hurting is ZaZa and Solo is all we got to pair with Horford to protect the rim and rebound for 48 minutes a night. Even on offense, Al and Marvin might be able to develop into more efficient volume scorers than Smith, but as of now thats hard to predict - especially considering Smith probably has as much, or more, room for growth than either. More importantly though, you are replacing a player who is, at worst, decent on offense with one who is terrible. If Al and Marv show enough to warrant more touches than Smith, by all means give it to them but Smith will always be a better offensive option than Kwame or Francisco because he is a mismatch. I'm not saying Smith is irreplacable, just that if we are willing to let him walk if the Clips go too high, we either need to have a big plan in place to acquire another premier talent or we need to start getting ready for the inevitable Joe "I wanted more talent around me when I came here and then you go and let the most talent player we had walk" tirade.

Quote: Quote: Quote: Don't be surprised if Marvin becomes an 18-20 ppg scorer, if he works on his post game and 3 pointer, he could become a better 2nd option than smith. We have to work out a sign and trade for kaman if the money is too much. Bibby or Acie 10-14 ppg Joe 20-25 ppg Marvin 18-20 ppg Al 12-14 ppg Kaman 16 ppg Add a shooter and i dont see the big deal in losing smith You realize the Clippers don't have any reason to SnT Kaman for Smith right? They want to compete now and they have enough cap space to sign Smith straight up. So, you are saying that all we have to do to replace Smith if we let him walk is sign a player we probably can't get and hope that a guy who hasn't shown 3pt. touch or post moves in 3 years suddenly develops them... While I totally disagree with the original post, I disagree with this one just about as much... Right now, we are in a position to control where Smoove goes. Smoove just can't go to LAC without our blessing. IF that means that we require Kaman in return for Smoove, then that's the rule that LAC will have to play by. I think you are missing my point. The reason LAC would go after Josh is because they think it will give them the best chance to win now. If they lose Kaman in the equation, it is little better than lateral and gives them less cap space to work with. I don't think LAC is in love with Josh the way it seemed Philly was, he's just the most attractive player on the market at a (now) position of great need. I think for them it is either offer him enough that we don't match and pair him with Kaman or move on. Frankly I'm not so sure they really want Smith. They might just make an offer big enough to appease the fan base but not really expect to land him.

Quote: Don't be surprised if Marvin becomes an 18-20 ppg scorer, if he works on his post game and 3 pointer, he could become a better 2nd option than smith. We have to work out a sign and trade for kaman if the money is too much. Bibby or Acie 10-14 ppg Joe 20-25 ppg Marvin 18-20 ppg Al 12-14 ppg Kaman 16 ppg Add a shooter and i dont see the big deal in losing smith You realize the Clippers don't have any reason to SnT Kaman for Smith right? They want to compete now and they have enough cap space to sign Smith straight up. So, you are saying that all we have to do to replace Smith if we let him walk is sign a player we probably can't get and hope that a guy who hasn't shown 3pt. touch or post moves in 3 years suddenly develops them...

Quote: Quote: Horf is probably the most physical player that we have. Easily, I'd say, and that was as a rook. Papi Horf may have contributed some there (who knows?). Playing with the big boys, he should only get stronger and more confident using that strength to his advantage. I'd love to see him put on a little lower body strength. The way he plays, I think he'll be able to be a very good post defender once he gets used to the speed of the game and the increased skill of NBA pivots.

Quote: 1)Horford is a superior rebounder. 2) Horford is a better shooter beyond dunks and layups. Period. Horford shot 44% on shots from 3-15 ft and 36% on shots beyond 15 feet but inside the 3 pt line. Smoove shot 27% on shots from 3-15 ft and 30% on shots beyond 15 feet but inside the 3 pt line. But that doesn't even tell the whole story regarding how much better of a shooter that Horford is. According to the "Hotspots" data at nba.com, Horford shot 44% or better from 5 of the 8 hotspots inside the 3pt line (excluding dunks and layups). Conversely, 37% was the HIGHEST percentage that Smoove shot from ANY of the 8 hot spots. 3) Horford doesn't turn the ball over as much as Smoove. Al turned it over too much but he still only averaged 1.7 TOs per game AS A ROOKIE versus Smoove's 3 TOs per game as a 4th year player. In the playoffs, when the pressure and the spotlight were on, he played 40 mpg and averaged only 2 TOs per game while averaging nearly 4 apg. Conversely, Smoove played 34 mpg in the playoffs and averaged nearly 4 TOs per game and only 3 apg. All that said, some things are not quantifiable but they are pretty obvious and they have value. Things like "BB IQ", "boneheadedness," attitude and "proven winner" fit into that category. I think ex' summed it up pretty well. Smith is on the perimeter in certain sets but you make it seem like the guy shoots below 40%, most of the time when Chil is in the game, Smith stands on the perimeter because there isn't really another way of doing it. Horford is a better jump shooter which is great for him but as you point out, he isn't as good of an inside scorer. On TOs: Smith's turnovers have increased with his offensive responsibility. He makes too many stupid mistakes but Al hasn't been asked to do much on offense so assuming he would be any better is folly when he is also turnover prone given the lack of defensive attention he recieves. Look, the only reason I want to point this out is that there are people on this board who seem to take the approach that "Smith can leave because we have Al and he is going to be better anyway". I tend to think they complement eachother fairly well but if we lost Smith, we'd be losing a big chunk of production that wouldn't be replaced by Al or any other player very easily.

Quote: Al is a proven winner, he has an incredible attitude, he has a high basketball IQ, he is bigger, he is stronger and he is more fundamentally sound. Those are all plusses I would give him over Smoove. Al had a lot of turnovers last year but most of them were TOs that he committed while trying to do the right thing. He has shown the ability to learn from his mistakes and he doesn't keep making the same mistakes over and over again. His game is not nearly as flashy and he is not going to make nearly as many highlight reel plays and he is not going to fill the stat sheet like Smoove does but at the end of the day, I can see why a GM would think that his overall steady contributions outweigh the great plays Smoove makes that are somewhat mitigated by the bonehead mistakes he makes. This is what I was talking about. In this debate the only thing Al has going for him would be something that is completely unquatnifiable like "proven winner" or "incredible attitude" or "high bball IQ". You also have an interesting double standard regarding basketball IQ where Al gets a pass on his relatively low volume of offensive production compared to his TOs because he is "trying to do the right thing" but Smith's relatively higher volume of offensive production is matched by an increase in TOs and that is him being "boneheaded".

Quote: Quote: It would not be ridicululous to say that you (GMs) would keep Al over Smoove. Al has two things in his favor. He rebounds slightly better and he's a "4.25" (Pf/C) rather than a "3.5" (PF/Sf). Otherwise JS is better with a higher ceiling. JS's TENDEX the last two years was higher than Horford's rookie TENDEX per48 and his playoff TENDEX was higher. In short, JS was (and since then has been) better than Horford a year younger and less experienced than Horford. W I agree with you that we would probably be best off keeping both. I also think you highlight a good point. People who aren't Smith fans tend to base their arguments in things that aren't really based in the numbers, "he isn't a good man defender" is what Dawson said, of course its not really substantiated by anything and as ex' showed. "he doesn't bring it every night" which doesn't talk about his actual impact, more about his potential impact but it looks to me like he is bringing it when he's chasing down point guards in a full court sprint. "he has poor work ethic" which is why he went from a super-raw rookie to one of the more well rounded players in the league. "he has an attitude problem" like it or not, he's fiery - the team often takes its cues from him like in game 3 or the philly game earlier in the season.

Quote: Those players were renounced back on the 1st. Just bad reporting. Yeah didn't they have to renounce them to make the revised offer to Brand?

Quote: Quote: The only way that Kaman could be coming back here would be if we were to include Zaza or Speedy and I doubt they would take Speedy and there's no way that Kaman is as valuable as both Smoove and Zaza. IMO we have very little choice but to match the deal unless they gave us Thornton and a couple of 1sts. You're talking about a 7 foot Center who can post up and play defense. He also get Blocks and Boards. I would lobby for the first rounder, but he's not some chump. There is a difference between him being a chump and him having a greater impact on our team than Smith/Zaza. He isn't a chump but there is no reason to try and make this trade.

Quote: Chillz' PER was higher than JJ's last year. Does that mean that Chillz is EVEN CLOSE to the player that JJ is? I agree that the age difference certainly makes a difference and that should be taken into consideration. Again, I think Smoove is better now too BUT I think it is certainly debatable as to who will be the better player as soon as this upcoming season. Sure its flawed as hell but you said "Al was a FAR better rookie than Smoove was" and then said it wasn't even close. That is just not true when the only thing he did better was rebound even though Smith was 3 years younger. There is not reason to think Horford will eclipse Smith in the very near future. Maybe in another two years but there is a fairly big difference in their roles on the team and Smith is still improving.

Quote: ridicululous to say that you would keep Al over Smoove. In fact, I would bet that a SIGNIFICANT number of GMs in the league would take Al over Smoove RIGHT NOW. GM's value potential and while Smoove was more productive LAST year, Al was a FAR better rookie than Smoove was. It's not even close. Right now, Smoove is better than Durant too but I'll bet you that OKC wouldn't even THINK about trading Durant to us for Smoove. It is okay to disagree but calling it RIDICULOUS is way off base in my opinion. I said it was ridiculous to imply that Smith is expendable because we have Al. As far as a "far better rookie", well there is certainly the age difference but I'd advise you to look at your stats; Smith scored at a higher rate and was already getting more FTs, he had fewer boards obviously but twice as many blocks, more assists and the same amount of TOs. Saying "far better" is a bit hyperbolic when Smith actually had a better PER... Again, to say Al will be better in the future is fair but to say he is better now is wrong.

Quote: My agenda is I like AL better then Josh. If you guys like Josh better thats ok I don't "like" either one better but it is a statistical fact that as of now Smith's contributions to the team are more significant. As far as the TOs on the break, check out the splits before and after Bibby was here and after Bibby was here. Difference is that we didn't have a pg.

Quote: Quote: We'll see about that next season. Every year Smith adds something new to his game. I get the feeling that he will be a much improved shooter come next season. Heck, he was much improved this season from the previous season. You have to keep in mind just how raw this kid was when he got here. We will see what happends. But I hope we dont see the the same results of the post and midrange skills he put in with Olajuwon last summer (what a joke). Look dude, I don't mean to get in between you guys and your enlightening and productive argument. For the record I like Josh and Al a lot. Its obvious you have an agenda though. Al had a great rookie season but it certainly wasn't a legendary rookie season where I'd be willing to let go of a player who anchored the D and scored almost twice as many points inside the paint+had twice as many FTs because I was sure Al would develop beyond that. Just so you know, by the way, if you take all of Al's possessions as a ratio, a higher percentage of them turned into TOs than Josh's. Not because Al has "a low bball IQ", as you seem to attribute TOs to, but because for most of the season we were running without a legit pg and our other players tried to pick up the slack too much.

Quote: Quote: Quote: Quote: We have no idea who ALL the teams with the money next year Which is exactly why it would be such a huge risk to take a one year deal. If the teams with a lot of cap space don't need a 4 what is Smith going to do? Plus next years free agent crop is supposed to be much stronger than this years. What if he takes the one year QO and then gets hurt or has a poor season? There is ZERO YES I MEAN ZERO chance that his agent would allow Smith to take the QO even in the unlikely event that Smith wanted to take it. Right, I think the injury thing is the biggest concern. Unless he gets a ridiculous offer from us (like last summer), he'll take it. The Clippers will probably offers something worth signing for anyway. By the way, you (Dawsons Creek) keep calling Smith our third best player. Obviously Joe is the first best player but who is the second best in your mind? I would take Horford over Josh Smith any day of the week and twice on Sundays. You might think that Al projects to be better down the road but I wouldn't base how we deal with Smith based on how good Al might be.

Quote: Quote: We have no idea who ALL the teams with the money next year Which is exactly why it would be such a huge risk to take a one year deal. If the teams with a lot of cap space don't need a 4 what is Smith going to do? Plus next years free agent crop is supposed to be much stronger than this years. What if he takes the one year QO and then gets hurt or has a poor season? There is ZERO YES I MEAN ZERO chance that his agent would allow Smith to take the QO even in the unlikely event that Smith wanted to take it. Right, I think the injury thing is the biggest concern. Unless he gets a ridiculous offer from us (like last summer), he'll take it. The Clippers will probably offers something worth signing for anyway. By the way, you (Dawsons Creek) keep calling Smith our third best player. Obviously Joe is the first best player but who is the second best in your mind?

Quote: yeah, he definitely won't get the money the clips are offering, but wow, the Clips could be down right awful in the West this year. I'd be tempted if I were Baron to go talk to Pat Riley or Mitch Kupchek, maybe even the Hornets. Or better yet go talk to Lebron and see if I can get a one year deal with a contender and try again next year. How long until he can be traded? I Davis/filler for Marion/Chalmers swap at the deadline could be nice if its possible...

Kaman is a center so he has some value but you would be hard pressed to find any exec in the league that thinks Kaman has more value than Smith. I have seen the complaints that many of you have with Smith which makes me think you haven't watched Kaman play (or looked at a stat-sheet for that matter) if you want to do a straight up swap for them. Lets look at the facts. Kaman is 26 and had this breakout year at age 25. Before that he had basically flatlined as a slightly below average center playing next to a franchise PF. Smith is 22 and has improved every year as his team improved around him. Problems with Smith: too many TOs, ?able shot selection, focus. Unfortunately, Kaman has as many TOs with fewer assists or FTs (which often lead to TOs); while Smith shoots too low a % for a PF, Kaman similarly shoots too low for a C; Smith is a dominant shotblocker who's lack of focus keeps him from being an elite man defender and Kaman has an a single season as a dominant shotblocker and has a case of ADD that keeps him from being even a solid man defender. Based on a comprehensive stat like PER, Smith is noticably better than Kaman. The "intangible" problems people seem to have with Smith are present and even magnified with Kaman. Add to that, Smith has consistently improved and has a lot more potential than Kaman and an offer of Smith plus a pick for Kaman makes it look like someone hasn't done their homework.

Quote: Quote: to Smoove even if they don't get Brand. If it were such a LOCK that they were going to do that, wouldn't they have at least made an offer to Smoove starting at $11M or so? I may be reading too much into the situation but it seems to me that they were not 100% sure that he was worth even the $11M to start, let alone $14.5M. That is a good point regarding the Clips by the way. I hadn't thought of that but it makes sense. If they make an offer at $11M and we match, they lose. If they clear cap space and offer $14M, they are assuming that they have crossed the threshold between where we match and where we don't. Apparently not...

Quote: I like that idea MR H. If it came down to players that could help us from those teams via sign and trade.... Clippers: Kaman Thornton Warriors: Ellis (They will throw the sink at him...no way he could come here) Bierdens Azubuike (bench help) Grizzlies: Draft Pick non lottery protected If we could get a quality big like Kaman or Bierdens out of Josh Smith I would be extatic. Im not opposed to bringing smith back but not for 14 mill a year. The nice thing is that the dubs have yet to make any moves at Josh, we can't necessarilly assume they aren't a threat but I'm not as concerned about them as I was about Philly. I think they should go hard after Iggy once Brand gets signed. They need a point guard since it looks like BDiddy is still a goner but Iggy is the next best thing. The Grizz also could make an offer, they have room and Smith is the hottest name out there. I'm the least worried about them though, that team loses money when its good and Heisley is praying for someone to take it off his hands. He won't want to shell out a boatload for a new player. That leaves the Clippers who can offer a big contract and need to fill a hole but who knows what they will do at this point.

Quote: L.A. Times Quote: Elton Brand has reached a verbal agreement to sign a multiyear contract with the Philadelphia 76ers, according to an NBA source who requested anonymity because he is not authorized to speak on player movements. The deal is believed to be in the $80-million range and expected to span five years. Welp. Here come the Clippers for Josh Smith... Thanks H, they can't offer as much as the Sixers though can they?