crimedog

Quote: marks. There were NO questions regarding JJ's skills as a player. The only question we had was whether or not he would be able to be a full time PG for us. Once that question was answered (no, he couldn't) and he moved to SG full time, he became an All Star. Smoove still COULD end up being a better player than JJ one day, but he is not good as JJ was when he (JJ) came to the ATL. I'm not sure if you read your own recap. The question was whether he could do what we wanted him to do (play point guard) and the answer was no... Then we asked him to do something else he hadn't proven he could do which is be a go-to scorer for 82 games and he could. Skills don't equal impact.

Quote: Quote: Quote: To say that Smoove is DEFINITELY better than a guy who gave us 20 ppg, 4 rbg and 7 apg while being double teamed the whole game is saying a LOT. I said better than JJ when we signed him. In other words, Smith's 17ppg-8rpg-3apg-3bpg-1.5spg as a defensive anchor and second option on offense are better than JJ's 17ppg-3.5apg-5rpg-1spg (both shooting 46% from the field) as a solid defender and fourth option on offense when we signed him. It worked out fine with JJ. JJ wasn't still learning how to dribble, learning shot selection, learning how to pass the ball to the PG and fill the wing on a fast break when he was an RFA nor trying to be both a PG and low-post beast in the same off-season (why not focus on mastering 1 skill before trying to learn another). When I think of Smith becoming an All-Star, I don't immediately think of the team being significantly better (just because he has achieved star-status). JJ wins... 8 days a week. Look, I know you don't like Smith, you've made that abundantly clear. The point is, at the time we signed JJ his biggest success had come as a spot up shooter. We wanted him to be the focal point of the offense even though he'd NEVER shown the ability to do anything like that for an extended period of time. Dwight Howard still can't pass the ball, he still can't handle the ball, still can't shoot the ball, is less refined on D than Smith... does it matter? No, he is a post player. For Orlando to get better, they have to bank on Howard learning how to be a truly dominant defensive player and they have to hope that he learns how to pass out of the double without turning it over. Is it smart of them to gamble on that? Of course. Smith isn't worth as much as Howard and he isn't a center so there isn't a perfect correlation but he is an extremely effective inside scorer (the most effective on our team) and he is easily our most effective defender WITHOUT having his skills refined. There is very little argument that JJ had proven more than Josh when we signed JJ aside from the fact that he had more refined skills, in which case we should dump both of them for Luke Jackson and Danillo Gallinari.

Quote: To say that Smoove is DEFINITELY better than a guy who gave us 20 ppg, 4 rbg and 7 apg while being double teamed the whole game is saying a LOT. I said better than JJ when we signed him. In other words, Smith's 17ppg-8rpg-3apg-3bpg-1.5spg as a defensive anchor and second option on offense are better than JJ's 17ppg-3.5apg-5rpg-1spg (both shooting 46% from the field) as a solid defender and fourth option on offense when we signed him. It worked out fine with JJ.

Quote: Who's more important to Atlanta's future success? I'm not sure what this question is asking or what you intend to show us. Who is more important? Well as of today its Smith without a doubt because JJ is already signed to a contract and has probably (but not definitely) leveled off as a player. Smith's departure could mean a lot more to the team than anything else that could happen over the next few years and could be even more significant to the franchise' future than when we signed JJ. Smith also hasn't tapped out his potential so you could say that our upper limit as a team really depends on how good Smith can become (his athleticism and skillset could push him into the upper limits of NBA talent). If you are asking who the most important player is on a game by game basis, its probably JJ because he is the focal point of our offense and finding elite offensive players is probably harder than finding elite defensive ones. Smith is definitely better now than JJ was when we signed him though, if thats what you are getting at.

Quote: Quote: But, giving Smith a contract that binds us from becoming anything more than a "good" to "average" team is not the answer. Not signing him ensures that we will be no where near "good" or average" for at least several more years. Exactly. If we don't resign Smith, none of the premier FAs that can help pull a 'chise into the playoffs are going to want to come here anyway because they will assume the ownership group isn't committed to winning (might just be true). We will be stuck with a below average team, but not below average enough to get a top 3 pick. Fans that started coming last season (about 1,000 new ones per game) will stop coming and we will start seeing the same slide in attendance we saw during lost years at the begging of the millenium. You do realize that the increase in attendance has a perfect correlation w/ Smith's development? Not so say he is the only reason but the rebuilding started with him.

Quote: Quote: Right, and the only one of those guys who might hold any interest to a team under the cap is Carney. The plan was to trade the draft pick and either Evans or Green. No one wants Green. Evans is another matter. But, if Smith signs the offer sheet soon, it's all moot. Well you know the CBA better than I do but at this point they can only clear significant cap by trading one of those dudes to a team with the cap space to absorb them straight up, right? My point was that no team with cap space is going to want to jeopardize that to pick up Reggie (he's valuable but not to that type of team) or Willie Green. Carney though, is young and relatively cheap and might be of interest to a team like Golden State (although they have about 298 players like him who don't get burn).

Quote: I am not sure its a death nail for the Hawks as a brand, but it sure as heck would kill all belief in the ASG, even by its most ardent supporters. One interesting tib-bit, that I just remembered from an interview with Gearon, is that the Hawks were the only NBA team not to have any loan debts. Evidently all teams borrow against their future revenue to make payroll or do other things. The Hawks have not done that. This means, to me, that the ASG could take out a loan to cover any signing bonus that Smith could warent if Philly goes nuts. The flip side of the above is that the ASG may not be able to secure loans right now due to the legal mess. I know that I wouldn't pursue on a loan not knowing if I would be responsible for it but not own the clubs. Furthermore, banks may not be willing to give a loan due to the uncertainty over who will actually be responsible for the loan. I know from the annual Forbes report that they aren't really leveraged that heavily, so I'm not so sure they'd have a hard time coming up with the money. I also know we had a 9% increase in attendance over the regular season (up to 86% capacity) plus sell-outs in the playoffs and the team plans to increase ticket prices. They would almost certainly lose the newly gained fan support and even more likely not make it back to the playoffs, ownership would have no right to increase ticket prices either. If the ASG wants to make real money long term, they have to be good and exciting enough to get on Nat'l TV, they have to be able to sell the arena out a lot more often than they do now, and they have to be able to charge a decent chunk of money for tickets.

Quote: I am a big Smith fan but he just isn't worth that. If it was my decision i just couldn't match that offer. Yeah its tough. Both of the options suck. If you sign him to that contract then you handicap yourself financially and flat out spend a ton of dough. If you let him walk, you take a huge step back on the court which won't help with the ticket sales. That being said, we have no clue if GSW is going to make an offer to Smith at all. They might be targeting Iggy or Calderon to fill their ball-handling hole (that sounds dirty).

Quote: Quote: They will give away Calvin Booth, Rodney Carney or maybe even Reggie Evans to open up some more room. The only way Philly can clear cap space is to trade those players to a team under the cap. Right, and the only one of those guys who might hold any interest to a team under the cap is Carney.

Quote: Not surprised to see the Spurs do this because they are coming to an end of Duncan's career and they needed to shake things up. Imagine stepping into such a role? I feel like Duncan still has a few solid years left at his current production, but yeah they definitely need some athleticism on that team outside of TP and Manu.

Quote: So you're saying the refs manipulated the series in order to force a Game 7 and put their only major draw out of the East at risk? Anything can happen in one game. You think they would do this despite the fact that it would take a physical toll on the Celtics and their 2nd round matchup was going to be the defending conference champion? All the league and ABC ever wanted was a Lakers-Celtics finals. Why would they do anything to jeopardize that? Why would anyone care if the Hawks got waxed by 40 in every game? MJ's great teams made short work of low-seeded teams all the time. Wouldnt the league want to add to the air of invincibility of its vaunted Beast of the East, building towards the inevitable clash of the titans (Celts-Lakers)? The Hawks were a non-story all year. They appeared on national television during the regular season as many times as you or I. This is a poor angle to play on your part, and was certainly not the tune you were singing after the actual games. I see a little time and distance have allowed you to harden your stance towards the series. More importantly, why wouldn't they draw out the first round series between the Nuggets and Lakers considering that Iverson/Melo are more known nationally?

Quote: did last year (56% to 55%) and the jump shooting is not even close. If Wallace could shoot like Marvin he'd be an All Star. Wallace is a bricklayer from the perimeter but his saving grace is that he is so athletic that he can usually find a way to get to the FT line. Thankfully, he improved his FT shooting to 73% last year because he is a career 66% FT shooter. Thats kind of misleading. He made a lower percentage of both layups and dunks (and took fewer of each) indivudually but since he took comparitively few layups, the overall percentage is higher. Gerald isn't as good of a finisher as I would have thought though.

Quote: What if the ASG has determined that Marvin and Hortford are the small and power forwards of the future? The money for the joshes could be used on Elton or Baron Davis or Smoove could be used in a sign and trade for Dalembert. We sometimes forget that having a duplication of talent is harmful in the long run. Marvin could be a 20 and 10 player without competing with the Joshes. If your hypothetical is true, why would they use the money on Brand unless they wanted to play him at Center... and if that were the case why wouldn't they just play Al at Center? Marvin could be a 20-10 player for the Dream but I doubt that is within the WNBA rules.

Quote: Let's say the Sixers go loopy and offer something the Hawks are unwilling to match. We lose Smoove. Boo hoo.....I'm still a Hawks fan, dyed and dried......100%. I suggest we take the lesson to heart and sign Chills. Move Horford to PF and lock him up after next year. Take the savings and sign a Kwame or Randolph with an eye on holding the money for resigning JJ and making our own power play next off season. But, this Smoove issue will not make or break this team. I think we have allowed circumstances to cloud our view and Sund being an outsider is more likely to see the reality. Smooth is not a championship player in his current state. For all his ability and skill, if you put him on a bad team they will continue to be bad. He isn't Kevin Garnett or Dwight Howard, Chris Paurl, or Lebron. He can't lead a team by himself. At some point by giving him an outrageous contract you would be saying that he is that type of player. I like'n him to Kenyon Martin. The Nets lost Kenyon do to a stupid choice to let him reach free agency. But, it didn't destroy the franchise, and Denver never got their money's worth. Well for one, he's better than KMart ever was even though KMart was older when he came into the league than Josh is now. Second, their winningest season with KMart was 52 wins and a trip to the finals, since its been 49 (with the addition of VC) and a second round stomping. Third, what power play do you have in mind to land a franchise changing player? We had a chance with Paul and we blew it. Fourth, as of now he has the potential to be the best player we could get in the next few years unless something unexpected happens and gambling that he achieves his potential is probably less risky than letting him walk and hoping that Lebron James/DWade/Bosh decide to opt out of their contracts and come to a team with ownership that won't shell out for their star players. All that said, I'll probably still be a Hawks fan. Its where I grew up and even though I live in NYC, there is very little chance that I cheer for the Knicks or Nets any time soon. We will just be worse for it.

Quote: All I'm saying is that if your going to spend 13 million a year you should aim higher than Josh Smith. What are the Hawks going to do without him, lose games? Oh wait.... Your estimation of Smith's value is your business. I can understand why you wouldn't want to overpay. I just think that your context-less argument that Josh Smith has never led a team to 50 wins is completely retarded. Especially since you are contrasting him with KG who also never led a team to 50 wins at this point in his career and had been something of a "second fiddle" to Tom Gugliotta before that.

Quote: None of the Hawk players have proven that can lead a team to wins in their careers. KG had plenty of 50 win seasons under his belt before Boston. Can Josh or Joe make the same claim? I guess if your proud of a capped out 37 win team that's what your proud of. KG wasn't on a 50 win team until his 5th year in the league. ... but yeah, I guess my declaration of pride gave me away.

Quote: If a player can't help your team win, he's not with the money. JJ is not a max player either. So according to your logic, KG was a max player in 03-04, declined in his monetary worth until this year when his value spiked back up to max? Do I have that right?

Quote: Yeah, we got to remember that he helped the team win a whopping 37 games this past season and he thinks he is worth anywhere near the max? lol What a joke. Good point. None of our players are worth any money because they were on a 37 win team. Joe Johnson isn't near max, why? 37 wins. Al Horford had a crappy rookie season, why? 37 wins. You keep making this point but it doesn't mean anything. Specifically in this circumstance.

Quote: I'm not sure why this is a big deal. They can't afford to offer them simultaneous offer sheets, not with only $11M in cap space. I'm more concerned that once an inflated offer for one is made, that another team will make an inflated offer for the other and Sund/ASG will be forced to choose which one to match (most likely Smith). From a practical standpoint, having both players visit Philly is not nearly as bad as knowing that one was headed to Philly and the other to Memphis/Clippers (the other teams with cap space). Right? Yep... I wonder what Philly would do with Chil. They are already the worst 3pt shooting team in the leage and they have a big need for a guy who can put the ball in the bucket in crunch time. Childress doesn't really fill any of their needs, he gets his points the same way Dalembert does. Maybe they will offer Childress the largest contract that they know we would match. Then once we had already committed, they'd offer Smith the largest contract that they were willing and hope that we'd chewed up enough of our finances on Childress. Make it so we have to worry about our second issue before our first.

Quote: Quote: I'm thinking you're not getting it. The resign why teams Frontload contracts (Signing Bonus) is because it allows them to steal RFAs. It does count against the cap. No, the signing bonus is prorated over the length of the deal for cap hit purposes. The purpose of the signing bonus is that the A/S would have to pay a bunch of money upfront, and they have tight purse strings. Right, no one knows how much money ASG has to spend and how much they can raise over a short amount of time. Especially with a decent wad being spent on legal fees. Of course, the fact that no one knows doesn't mean they don't have the money. The Hawks haven't lost money lately, even if they haven't been the most profitable franchise. Its possible that ASG just says "[censored] it" and matches without thinking twice.

Quote: If I'm the Wizards, I'd have to seriously consider letting Arenas walk and going aggressively after Monta Ellis. The Wizards actually had a much more balanced attack when Arenas was gone. Caron Butler really blossomed and the team was able to play slightly better than average defense. Ellis is a comparable player to Arenas but would likely not be the ball hog that Gilbert has become. This should be fun watching the chess match play out. Oh and I can't believe that 2 teams are offering over $100M to a player who is coming off a season-ending injury. Obviously, they must know for certain that Gilbert hasn't lost any of his quickness from last season's injury. Leaving out any talk of money. I agree that Arenas' numbers don't add as much basketball value to the Wiz as you'd expect but he is more of point guard than Ellis.

Quote: if he signs an offer with philly, we only have 2 choices: match or let him go for free we can't SNT him once he signs an offer sheet I thought that once we SIGN him, we can TRADE him.

Quote: When JJ was brought over, he had goals of being higher on the option chart and wanted to "prove what he could do". I'm not sure JS has these kind of goals. Just think, he has been in the league for 3 or 4 years now and he still hasn't improved this jumpshot. Maybe a S&T is the best option. When JJ came over, everybody thought it was about getting more money and respect. I'm pretty sure most NBA players want more money and respect. As far as "not giving 100%", there are games when Joe settles for way too many fadeaways instead of attacking the rim (the entire first half of the season he was slow on D, lazy on offense, AND bitching about how he didn't have enough help). When Joe does it, we say "he's tired and needs help". Josh is our only effective defender, and say what you want about him but he is our only statistically significant defender, and second option on offense, but he's not allowed to get tired like Joe? There is always the concern that giving a player a contract will make him lazy. Does that mean you don't give out contracts? No, you look and see if the player has put in the time and effort to improve. Has Josh done this? Well you mention his jumpshot, which hasn't improved. What about his post game, handles, passing, awareness, and defense? What about the strength training he's obviously done? If he hadn't worked on his game, he'd be Tyrus Thomas or Gerald Green or something. Give the guy a little credit or you just look biased.

Quote: My gut feeling tells me that Brand ends up in Philly do to a SNT. He probably gets a SNT deal starting at 15 Million. I can see him signing a 5 year 83 Million dollar deal. Then being traded for Andre Miller and a first. Philly wins because they have Lou Williams to sign. LAC wins because they need a vet PG for short term to train their rookie and stay competitive. In Philly you have: Dalembert, Brand, Young, AI, and Lou... that's a sweet 5. In LAC, they will still shop for More FAs. I believe they either SNT Maggette or renounce him. Their needs would be PF and SG. I can see them making a play for Chillz. I could see them making a play for Smoove. But the real possible targets are: Arenas, BDiddy, and Gordon. I think LAC would easily take an OG and make them a SG if they get Miller and then they would probably look for a trade for a Big... maybe Randolph. I'm not sure Philly wants to leave PG duties in Lou Williams hands. Don't they think of him more as a supr 6th man? I could see Brand resigning in LA (because they can offer him more $$$) and Maggette ending up in Philly because they still need a go-to scorer and Thad Young played most of his minutes at PF last season anyway. That way Stefanski can get a cheaper FA than Josh Smith and still say that he followed through on his promise to get a good player in FA who fills a need. I'm not sure if Thad at PF is sustainable, but as a rookie its hard to tell anything about what he is or isn't capable of.

Quote: Quote: Biedrins is a better rebounder though, on both sides of the ball. I see that being the point of primary advantage. Actually, he is not a better defensive rebounder than Smith. I was going by rebound rate... Although GSW is the worst defensive rebounding team in the league (we aren't much better but Al and Josh are actually above average for their positions, no one else on the team is though) and the second most prolific Drebounder on their team is Al Harrington so I do think Josh would snag a few more in that high octane, low teamate environ.