bleachkit

Yes, but they are doing fine right now. There isn't a perfect way to do this. Staying in the house until a vaccine arrives is not an option.

No, it's not about that. I'm 100% positive I'm right about this, and I'm putting my money on the line.

Yes there are certain hot spots. Nationwide hospitals are not at overcapacity. I'm on record saying if the final fatality rate is above 1% percent the board can pick me the most shameful avatar they can find. Rake me over the coals. Tar and feather me. My estimate from the data is that it's 0.2% or 0.3,% which is two or three times deadlier than the flu, respectively.

You should read my analysis about why the fatality rates are being overstated, and the doomsday models were basically wrong. That being said, I understand not wanting to take any chances with a novel virus that we didn't know much about. But as more real data has come in, not arbitrary models or projections, Covid-19 is not as lethal as originally thought and may end up having numbers similar to the flu after an extrapolated analysis of antibody tests are done. The point of social distancing, shelter in place was to flatten the curve, to slow down the spread, as a spike in cases could overwhelm hospitals that might not have enough beds, vents, etc. Hospitals are not overcapacity right now. Some are practically vacant due to delayed elective procedures. But some seem to think the plan is to stay at home until a vaccine emerges or something. That's not in the cards, that will take far too long. Possibly 12 to 18 months. The idea of an open ended, indefinite nearly nationwide shelter in place is completely untenable.

I mean we can try to contact trace every Covid-19 death if you want. If we eliminate every possible place, we may as well be in an underground bunker.

The majority of the players have said they would like to resume play, of ones that have spoken publicly about it. I have yet to hear one player say the season should be cancelled. LeBron wants number ring 4. Giannis wants ring number 1. Those guys have a lot of sway.

KAT will be allowed to grieve and not return, as is common when a player has a tragic death in their life. But I suspect it's well north of 70% of players that want to return. Playing NBA2k 8 hours a day does start to get old after awhile. Some players have probably never missed the game more in their life.

Put the cameraman in a hazmat suit if it makes you feel better. There are practical solutions that can be employed to largely mitigate the spread.

That's not the actual death rate, its well below that. I explained this ad nauseum in the Coronavirus thread.

Care to make an avatar bet on that?

Apparently sports can only resume with absolutely zero risk, as if that exists for any business in any industry. Life has to move on at some point.

Most players are itching to come back. Especially sitting in their house for a month getting restless. Ballers want to ball my friend. Feel free not to watch if you're not interested.

It no more risky than people who are currently working jobs all over the country, probably less so with the NBA's resources. They will have measures in place, no way there isn't NBA basketball in the coming months.

Most of the refs are in great shape. They have to run the floor and keep up with professional athletes to get the right angles to make calls. Most ordinary people would be huffing and puffing.

No one has to be in 6 feet proximity to the players besides the refs. I think D*ck Bavetta retired already.

Exactly. The doomsdayers saying everything will be canceled forever. It's always darkest before the dawn. Just chill, give it a couple weeks. The NBA is more concerned about optics than anything. So they don't want to look like they are rushing back. But behind the scenes I bet Cuban, Silver, etc. are already planning the return.

https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/29038491/dr-anthony-fauci-promotes-single-site-fan-free-return-sports There you have it, Fauci has endorsed a return to crowdless sports. Trump is strongly encouraging it. Testing issues are being ironed out as we speak. States are opening up their economies soon. There will be NBA basketball. Book it. Don't care what happened in China. If you are waiting for zero risk, that day is not coming. 20 somethings putting a ball in a hoop in an empty gym will not impact the coronavirus outbreak in any appreciable way. I like what Asia is doing with robot fans, NBA should look into that (smile).

It depends what you consider a "wave". Mild resurgence is certainly possible, a major one like 1918 I would doubt.

Yes, Covid-19 is extremely contagious. That's why I keep telling people the number of confirmed cases is just the tip of the iceberg. Social distancing or not, tens of millions have it or have had it. Probably unpopular opinion here, but I personally am in favor of opening up the economy in May. There's no perfect time to do it. The virus will continue to spread no matter what, that's what they do. You can't live in a bubble. Protect the elderly and the infirm. Wash hands, use good practices. But It's not as deadly as we originally thought, and the risk to the young and the healthy is not that great.

If you work with the elderly, you absolutely have to be careful not to be a potential spreader. I don't see why 20 years olds putting a ball in a hoop can't resume their occupation though.

My point is that social distancing prevents a spike in deaths, and does decrease deaths overall. But I don't think it results in a 95%+ reduction in would be deaths, like questionable models are suggesting. That's not plausible. Forthcoming data will support my hypothesis.

Well Gambia, Somaia, Nicaragua, Cambodia are doing nothing. Many of those countries are listed are not strictly enforcing policies. I would love to see a world wide study on this in a few months.

Still their number of deaths is low. There is no way on god's green earth Covid-19 has a 2% fatality rate. We would have so, so many more deaths by now throughout the world. Spanish flu had a 2% fatality rate. This is not the Spanish flu.

Yes, the old are vulnerable, those young are at much less risk generally. My guess is fatality rate is anywhere from 0.15 to 0.3.% I was just using this as an example, it's not enough to draw definitive conclusions.

That's Europe, what about Africa, South America and Asia? If we have a truly terrible pandemic on our hands like the models suggest those third world countries will get obliterated.