bleachkit

Trae cant jump either. And if the Hawks had taken Luka, half the board would have Luka avatars. Arguing basketball is more fun.

My angle isn't political. Are you a conservative? Most conservatives don't trust CNN. Like liberals don't trust Fox news, etc. I personally am non-partisan. My final link will be from the CDC or NIH. Right or wrong, they have the last word on this.

My sources are all above board. I cited a Stanford University study, published in Nature. One of the premier Universities, and the premier scientific journal.

Dude, first of all. I never said EVERYONE has/had it. I said a sizeable percentage of the population has/had it. I dont know the exact number. But it is far, far greater than the number of confirmed cases. To support your case, you are a using nursing home from a month ago. The articles I cited are not propaganda. They are not from some bogus right wing conspiracy type website. Nature is the most widely read and respected scientific journal. It is using a serological study of thousands of people, conducted by Stanford University. Bottom line is, the fatality rate I am claiming, (0.2 to 0.3%) versus the fatality rate you are claiming (5%), are an ocean apart. So I will let the facts play out. But please do not dismiss findings as I post them as "propaganga". I will only report links from governmental agencies, like the CDC or NIH, or an established universities (Stanford, Johns Hopkins, etc).

Linking an article with the latest data from the top science Journal is hardly promoting a conspiracy, it's using rock solid evidence and credibility to burnish my point. An example of a conspiracy would be claiming the NBA has instructed their referees to go easy on Luka Doncic in order to protect a budding white superstar. Now that is a conspiracy.

What are you talking about? Both articles are dated yesterday. They are specifically citing recent Covid-19 antibody data. Articles from the Wall Street Journal and Nature are the conspiracy bubble? Nature is considered the premier science journal in the world. You keep quoting how are many are dead. THAT'S NOT WHAT WE ARE DEBATING. We are debating the fatality rate. That means the percentage of those infected with Covid-19 that ended up dying from it.

@thecampsterYour conservative libertarian friends at the Wall Street Journal agree with me. https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-data-suggest-the-coronavirus-isnt-as-deadly-as-we-thought-11587155298 @macdaddy @AHFAlso an article from the highly respected science journal Nature. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0

So in summation, you stand by your U.S. Covid-19 fatality rate of 5%?

H1N1 infected 60,000,000 or so people in the US in 2009. 1 in every 5 people. These viral type illnesses are extremely contagious.I dont know how many Covid-19 has infected, but it aint 706,000. It's a number much, much, much greater than that.

I'm not downplaying the deaths. I'm downplaying the fatality rate. That was the specific thing we were debating. My friend, I don't know the exact number of asymptomatic cases versus confirmed cases. This is one study in California. But I used it to illustrate how the number of actual cases when you extrapolate serology data (that is how you the get the approximate real number) is far, far greater than the number of confirmed cases, by orders of magnitude. Maybe it's 30x, 40x, 60x. Not sure, but rest assured it is going to a huge number. You mentioned math, multiplying your numerator in the equation by a factor of 30, 40, 50, etc. will drastically change the fatality rate. I don't see how you can argue against that. More serology studies are forthcoming very soon.

The main reason testing has struggled to take off are technical ones. Chinese made tests used by other countries were deemed unreliable by the US government. So now finally quality tests are being made, but there aren't enough of them yet. Tests have high quality control standards for manufacturing, it's hard to rattle off tens of millions of them like bags of chips.

thecampster, macdaddy, AHF, etc. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/santa-clara-coronavirus-infections-study/index.html If 50 times more people have had the infection, the death rate could drop by that same factor, putting it "somewhere between 'little worse than the flu' to 'twice as bad as the flu' in terms of case fatality rate," Bhattacharya said. This is just the beginning. More antibody testing will reveal enormous disparities between confirmed cases and asymptomatic ones. I was actually underestimating the amount, if anything.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/santa-clara-covid-19-antibody-study-suggests-broad-asymptomatic-spread.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/santa-clara-coronavirus-infections-study/index.html Asymptomatic cases are 50x to 85x times greater than the number of confirmed cases in this study. I know what I'm talking about. I'm 100% right.

My angle isn't political. It's entirely data driven.

Ok no bets, but I will continue to make my case. Serology data is going to be very hard to dispute when it becomes available.

I'm betting on fewer deaths than expected is how I look at it.

Hydroxychloroquine is just some anti-malarial drug Trump is pumping, not sure why. Remdesivir is the real deal though.

What do you think the actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is?

Oh jeez, this is like the 50th time I had to explain this. That fatality rate is based on confirmed cases, people that had symptoms severe enough to seek treatment. The number of asymptomatic cases could be ten times, twenty, thirty times that number. The confirmed cases would represent 0.2% of the population. Serology testing might show 1 out of every 10 people have Covid-19 antibodies, orders of magnitude greater than the confirmed cases. Celebrities, athletes, politicians were already testing positive, meaning Covid-19 was likely already spread out to a large swath of the population. In 2009 H1N1, infected 60 million in the US, nearly a billion world wide. My estimate is 0.2 to 0.3%. For some perspective, Spanish Flu had a fatality rate of 2% and killed 60 million people despite quarantines and other measures that were taken. 60 million. So Covid-19, with a supposed fatality rate twice as high as the deadly Spanish Flu, has killed only 150k? I am 100% certain about this.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2886921-report-optimism-abounds-nba-season-can-be-saved-amid-covid-19-pandemic https://sports.yahoo.com/why-walt-disney-world-would-be-the-ideal-spot-for-the-nba-to-salvage-its-season-142557713.html I love this guys idea about using Disney's ESPN complex.

The original models of Covid-19's fatality rate are probably erroneous. I have discussed this extensively throughout the thread. When all the data is computed and studied in a couple months based on deaths, hospitalizations and serological antibody data, it will show Covid-19 is not nearly as deadly as originally feared. If I'm wrong about that, tar and feather me. But as long as common sense measures are taken, including testing, social distancing and the like, then the risk posed by professional team sports in a controlled setting is extremely low. Certainly lower than going to the grocery store and other ordinary activities, where customers and employees aren't being tested for Covid-19 upon entry. There's caution, theres safeguarding, and then there's irrational paranoia.

There will be plenty of grandstanding and virtue signalling from the media when they do return. But bottom line is they play for the fans, the fans want ball. If other non-essential businesses are opening, then sports should be able to as well.

Well you might feel that way. Others might not. No one has to watch if they don't want to.

It's tough for baseball because they have so many games. NBA is on the doorstep of playoffs, so it's a lot closer to the finish line. But for the MLB players with money, I could see how multiple months in a hotel in Arizona might be a turn off.

Aren't quite a lot of their players overseas?