bleachkit

How is what I said weird? AHF didn't seem to think your comment was tongue in check.

During an apocalyptic pandemic the heath care system would completely collapse. There's a lot of debate about data, how things are counted, non counted, etc. Who knows what the truth is. But there is no faking ICUs filled to the brim with patients dying of a respiratory illness. As long as the hospitals are in good shape, that is a more meaningful metric than any graph or model.

Not necessarily. There has been a lot of variation from region to region. The reasons might be climate, demographics, population density, etc. Many areas, I would say even most, can proceed with opening the economy. A one size fits all strategy is unduly punitive to areas where it is not necessary.

Hospital capacity and activity should be the metric that determines policy, not the number of positive cases, or even deaths. Positive cases shouldn't be a surprise. It's a highly infectious virus, of course there will be millions and millions of positives. Covid-19 deaths are not all the same. Yes a life is a life, but a healthy 30 year old dying of Covid-19 is a lot different than an 80 year old with stage 5 cancer. One died of Covid-19 and one died with Covid-19, that's an important distinction. The best indicator is the hospitals. If something is really bad, hospital beds are full, ICUs are full. Bad flu seasons have overwhelmed hospitals. As long as the health care system is in good shape, opening the economy should proceed. If hospitals are swamped, lockdowns have to remain in place.

The NFL is going full speed ahead. Unless it's strictly prohibited in that state, they will have crowds.

Looks like MLB is trying to beat NBA to the punch.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29143923/nba-all-player-call-set-friday-sources-say

I think our team with have been in deep trouble with the physical play of the 90s, especially in the playoffs.

The execs who want the season cancelled are probably all from non-playoff teams.

No, many players want to return. Especially those on winning teams. Golden State has checked out, but most of the winning teams are looking forward to returning.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-considering-using-disney-world-as-a-venue-to-resume-the-season-report-says/

Solid meat and potatoes draft. Falcons were hoping Henderson or Kinlaw would fall to them, didn't happen. They tried to trade up, but unwilling to give up their 2nd, fish weren't biting.

Thank you NBA. They are preparing behind the scenes. I have been bullish from the start about the likelihood of a resumed season. It always darkest before the dawn. Cali and New York will be the last hold outs on shelter in place orders, those players might have to temporarily relocate if other players begin practicing. Of course the how and when is still up in the air, but clearly they would not be opening facilities unless there was reason to believe the season will resume.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29099194/nba-reopening-team-practice-facilities-friday-where-local-restrictions-eased-sources-say

Liverpudlian, I'm a Beatles guy.

So it's a matter of being tactful? Before I deliver the damning results, next time I will start it with "if I may interject, my good sir."

If it's 0.5% in New York, where half the Covid-19 deaths are, then what it would be nationally? I think my 0.2 to 0.3 number is still on target. If I'm wrong I will concede as such.

Who's psyched about the NFL draft tonight! I love the NFL draft, much more interesting than the NBA draft, with more players and more chances to find hidden gems. NBA draft seems like it's mostly luck.

People don't like being told their wrong, especially when it's an opinion that is contrary to popular belief. They inevitably resort to ad hominems and strawmans. Then when it's all said and done, when the evidence shows I'm right after all, be ready for rationalizations, deflections, obfuscation and denial.

Nearly half of all Covid-19 deaths are in New York.

I do. Sorry If I'm taking this a little personally. But literally everyone has told me I'm wrong. I have been banned from facebook groups for posting "misinformation" about fatality rates. I have been given a month long ban from the Atlanta falcons message board for similar reasons. Now the evidence is suggesting I was actually right about those fatality rates.

Yes, I have consistently said it's likely 2 to 3 times deadlier than flu. 5 times in New York would not be surprising at all. But you are adjusting your number down in half from 2% to 1%, that's clearly a concession. If the number is O.5% in New York, I don't see how it gets to 1% nationally.

That's the rate for New York. They were hit the worst in the nation. Of course it's a little higher than my 0.2 to 0.3% national projection. A rate 0.5% in New York, ground zero for Covid-19, would be a validation of everything I have been saying. A disproportionate number of Covid-19 deaths are in New York. Still think it's 2%?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html 21% of New York City residents tested positive for Covid-19 antibodies in a study. Far higher than the numbers in the California studies, as I correctly surmised.

I'll be sure to keep you abreast of the latest news Spud!