REHawksFan

They are Top 5 in Defensive efficiency which helps.  It also helps that there's not a great team in the division and Charlotte has been on a slide recently (lost 6 of 10).  As for the 7 game win streak, other than SA there haven't been a lot of potential playoff teams in the streak.  But hey, 7 in a row is 7 in a row and I ain't complaining. 

The interesting thing to me is looking at the whole season:

Start 9-2 with wins over (playoff potential teams): Washington, Houston, Cleveland, Chicago, and Milwaukee

Then go 1-10 with bad losses to (non-PO teams):  NYK, NO, LAL, Phx plus blowout losses to Utah, Detroit, and Toronto

Then go 12-4 with wins over (PO teams):  Mil, Tor, OKC, and SA

The roller coaster is real.  Take out the 11 game stench and they are 21-6 (.778) with a lot of quality wins.  That's a good enough trend to be leading the East.  Crazy team and crazy season so far. 

4 minutes ago, kg01 said:

This is the national narrative ... which is flat out wrong (as usual).

Trading Korver had no impact on winning.  None.  Should we hang onto him, play him off the bench and continue to block the rookies when they may actually help us more?  As is, we actually were able to flip a 36yo expiring for a 1st round pick.  Oh and we picked up a guy who's probably a better fit than Kyle.

Getting a sense of the market for Sap and/or Thabo was the right thing to do considering their contract status.

The Korver trade was unrelated to this action IMHO.  National folks are combining the two and assuming we, as the #4 seed/potential 2seed, are throwing in the towel.  That doesn't even sound right.

You are correct that the narrative that is being played out doesn't make logical sense.  I agree KK was not helping the Hawks win (his win share is 0.37 and RPM is -2.46) but statistically Dunleavy is worse than KK.  I know he wasn't the "get" of the deal, but here we are stuck with him.  Maybe Bud won't play him? 

If this means seeing more Prince and Bembry I'm all for it, but it doesn't SEEM like the KK move and the SAP/Thabo/THJ rumors fit together logically. 

Just trying to follow the logic here.  A week ago it is reported that they are actively trying to trade Sap and Thabo and then they actually DO trade KK to Cleveland for a lesser player (Dunleavy) and a future pick.  Then a week later they take Sap off the market and Bud says he really likes the team.  And now ESPN reports that Bud told Sap he won't be traded prior to the deadline. 

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/18445455/paul-millsap-says-atlanta-hawks-told-dealt-trade-deadline

So what's the deal?  Trading KK (even as his role and effectiveness had diminished here) doesn't make the team better and signals the start of a reboot but keeping Paul is doubling down on the current roster.  If they are trying to win now, why trade KK to the team they are trying to beat and get nothing of current value in return? 

It sure looks like they were all about a rebuild last week and now they are back to trying to win now.  Am I missing something?  Is there any real value in the future 1st that can be swapped for current value to help this team? 

53 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

The biggest issue is value. We get value, Sap might get traded, we don't, we don't trade Sap

Agree but that begs the question.....What is value?  Is Bud's definition of value the same as the fanbase?  Are future 1sts plus some expiring contracts to create Cap Space considered value?  Or is value young players still on their rookie deals that can grow in Bud's system?  OR is value actually experienced, vet players that are high quality that can help immediately? 

Bud looked at THjr and saw "value" when nearly everyone else said "WTH?"

Bud looked at Prince and saw "value" at 12 (or whatever the pick was) when a bunch of folks said that was too high. 

The likelihood of Bud's definition of value and our definition of value matching seems pretty low. 

34 minutes ago, Lurker said:

There is a reason for this and its a continuation of last season. Kyle Korver and Kent Bazemore can't put the ball down and it makes it EXTREMELY difficult on the PG. Until March, Jeff was struggling a lot when he played with Kyle last season.

Playing. With. Wings. That. Can. Put. The. Ball. Down. Makes. The. Game. Easy.

Good point, but that's not all of the issue.  According to BBall Reference, Dennis and Delaney have played with two common lineups (that I've found so far).  

Lineup 1:  Hardaway, Moose, Millsap, Thabo - With Delaney that lineup is +34.4 and with Dennis it is -33.3

Lineup 2:  Hardaway, Moose, D8, and Thabo - With Delaney that lineup is +26.0 and with Dennis it is -58.8

It sure seems like the team plays better with Delaney on the court rather than Dennis.  Tonight Delaney was +26 while Dennis was -16.  Interesting factoid...Dennis has had a better +/- than Delaney ONE time this year (Sacto game) while Delaney has been better in every other game.  I'm not suggesting Delaney should start or anything but the lesser play of the team with Dennis on the court is or should be a little concerning, imo.  I just hope it gets better with time. 

1. It's obvious Paul and D8 haven't figured out how to play well together.  As someone else posted the other day, their +/- is -2 with both on the court but are significantly higher for each when on their own.  That should improve over time.

2. Hawks are 29th in the NBA in TO / Game at 17.6 and 28th in TO% as 15.8% of all possession end in a TO.  The only teams worse are Denver (TO/G) and Phi / Hou (TO%).  Again, it seems reasonable to expect that to improve as Sap and D8 (and DS17 and D*) get more comfortable together.

3. Hawks are 9th in the NBA in Offensive efficiency DESPITE the above two points.  They average 106.1 pts / 100 possessions. 

4. Hawks are 6-2 on the season while beating Cleveland, Chicago, and Houston (all quality teams).

Given the above, I'm not sure what there is to be concerned about?  I'm equally unsure why anyone would NOT be really excited about the prospects of this team.  As the TOs go down, the Offensive Efficiency should continue to go up.  The FG% may drop some over time but Hawks could still end up top 5 in offensive efficiency. 

Defensively, the Hawks are already top 3 and rank 2nd in the NBA in Net Rating. 

Also, of particular interest to a lot of us, the Hawks rank 3rd in the NBA in Reb Differential at +6.8 per game.  Last year they were 28th at -4.4.  That's an improvement of 11.2 per game.  Just makes a HUGE difference. 

Fun times ahead folks. 

Call me petty but I'm loving that Boston is ranked 18th in Def Eff and 24th in DefReb% .  I've read all too many articles about how great Boston will be this year.  And about how Alice will make them elite.  Seeing them struggle on defense and reading about their lack of rebounding just makes me smile.  I know, I know....I'm petty and childish.  But oh well.  F Boston, imo.  

I agree with a lot of what you are saying about D8.  I will be very interested to see how the defensive efficiency numbers shake out over the course of the season.  They were top 2 in preseason (means nothing) but they were very strong last night as well.  Howard's rebounding rate can make up for some other deficiencies and I hope / believe that Atlanta can be just as strong this year as the past few.  The real difference to me is the impact D8 will have on the offensive end.  Even if he doesn't get the number of attempts I think he will, just just opens everything up for all the other guys.  I think we will see a big jump in offensive efficiency this year, especially as the year goes on and the guys get into a good rhythm.  They were 18th last year at 103.0 pts per 100 possessions.  I think with Howard they can jump up closer to 105-106 pts which would be top 10. 

Al was an extremely good player for the Hawks, but he caused problems on the boards and sort of forced the team into playing a certain way that didn't always translate in the playoffs.  I think D8 solves that problem. 

My opinion after watching the game and some of preseason is that the team is much more well rounded that it ever has been.  Howard's strength (rebounding, defending) is a HUGE upgrade over what we've had and while he may not score in the same ways, he'll still get his.  Get Howard 12-14 shots a game at the rate he has always produced (1.5-1.6 pps) and he's looking at 20 pts/gm.  That's more than AL and that's before even considering how D8 opens the floor for Sap and others.  IF he stays healthy, the Hawks SHOULD be an overall better team than in years past.  Howard may or may not be a better player than AH at this point in his career, but his impact on the team should be far greater than AH could do. 

The concerns I have are not with D8 but with the PG position and seeing how DS17 handles being the starter.  I have no doubt he can do it, but sometimes I wonder if he's willing to hang back and be the distributor instead of the scorer. 

Prince better be playing a big role for the team this year.  We don't need a DLeague phenom, we need depth and/or a starter at the 3 (I prefer moving Baze to the 2 and KK coming off the bench). 

Ok so I'm a numbers guy and I'm intrigued by the idea that the improvement in team Rebounding by adding D8 (and losing AH) will ultimately increase Atl possessions and decrease opponent possessions and will therefore lead to increased point differentials for the Hawks which would presumably lead  to more wins.  That's my premise anyway. 

Just last year D8 avg 1.6 offensive Reb more than AH (3.4 / game to 1.8/game) and 2.9 defensive Reb more (8.4/game to 5.5/game) so that's a net of 4.5 more Hawk Reb per game.  Now if all of those came from the other team (as opposed to stealing some Reb from teammates) then theoretically the number of Atlanta Poss would increase by 4.5 while the number of opponent Poss would decrease by the same.  But let's assume that half of D8's incremental increase in Reb over AH  comes from a reduction in other Hawks rebounding (like Paul or Kyle or Baze) then that puts the overall increase for Hawks Rebounding per game at 2.25 and the decrease in opponents Rebounding at 2.25.  So theoretically this will increase the Hawks possessions by the same and decrease the opponents possessions.   Coincidentally, an increase of 2.25 Hawks rebounds per game with a corresponding decrease in Opponent rebounds would put the Hawks at a 50% RebRate which would rank about 14th in the NBA this past season.

Now, assuming the Hawks offensive and defensive efficiency ratings stay the same, their Avg Pts Scored and Pts Allowed should both improve as follows:

On offense:  Hawks Pts Per Possession = 1.03

Hawks Possessions = 99.4 / game , increased to 101.7 with D8 (99.4 + 2.25)  

Hawks pts scored increases from 102.8/ game to 104.8/ game (101.7 poss X 1.03 pts / poss)

On defense:  Hawks Pts per Possession = 0.988

Hawks pts / game allowed = 99.2 so Hawks opponents possessions = 100.4

With D8, Hawks opponents possessions reduced to 98.2 per game (100.4 - 2.25)

Hawks points allowed reduced from 99.2 / game to 97.0 (98.2 poss X 0.988 pts / poss)

SO......if these numbers held, the overall point differential would increase from +3.6 / game (102.8 scored vs 99.2 allowed) to +7.8 / game (104.8 scored vs 97.0 allowed).   I'm guessing that would yield more than 48 wins. 

Of course, the real question remains, will the Offensive and Defensive efficiency ratings stay the same with D8 instead of AH?  The answer is probably not.  In know D8's PPS this past year was not very good (or so I've read on one blog or another) , but it would seem like the offensive rating COULD improve a little with D8 taking more shots at the rim vs AH taking lower % shots this past year.  And the defensive rating could certainly improve a little with D8's superior shot blocking and altering ability. 

Thoughts?  

I think I'm looking at this correctly but feel free to correct me if I'm wrong regarding the premise of increased team Rebounding leading to Increased Possessions.   

EDIT:  I just looked it up and D8 was actually 2nd among qualified C with a 1.63 PPS so that's really good. The problem in Hou is he only attempted 8.5 shots / game. AH attembed 12.8 in Atl with only a 1.19 PPS. 

7 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

It's way too early, I know that.  Hawks don't usually play rookies and they certainly don't start.

With all this in mind, what would you think if Bud put these five out as starters?  I suppose we

would all think that he must have dropped his toast, butter side down, that morning.

1- Howard

2- Millsap

3- Prince

4- Blaze

5- Dennis

All this wild thinking after our first round pick has played but one summer league game.  I like the idea.

Just think of all the firepower we would have on the bench.  Everyone else would be better than our 13

win season team of several years ago.

Another thought:  Wouldn't it be so sweet if Atlanta had their own D league team and sign all the summer league

players to a D league contract. 

Please share your thoughts!!!

 

If Howard starts at 1 I'll definitely think Bud's lost his marbles...

In all seriousness, this is the lineup that I've favored for a bit now.  It allows KK to come off the bench in the sniper role with Thabo playing his excellent defense.  Add in Hump and I guess Splitter and Jack/Delaney and it's a good second unit.  I'm still not sure what to do with THJ. 

4 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

There's more to basketball than just offense. 

That's true, and it's a moot point now anyway.  BUT....I will point out that Alice had a DRPM of 2.08 while Sullinger was 2.48 last season so it's not like Sullinger was a huge liability.  And again, I was talking about Sullinger being a backup so it limits the exposure to his deficiencies. 

EDIT:  I had the numbers wrong.  Sullinger actually has a better Defensive RPM compared to Alice.

2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Fatty Sullinger and 'work into shape' should never be in the same sentence. The only shape is 'blob'

If Fatty Sullinger couldn't get in shape in a contract year what makes ypu think he will now. You dissapoint me @kg01. Smh.

It's interesting to me that even in bad shape Sullinger put up numbers that compare favorably to Alice. 

Alice is the better player, but if the Hawks had Sullinger in a backup role, he'd play less minutes so the out of shape problem wouldn't be as big an issue.  Seems like an upgrade to Splitter anyway. 

I know he's not a great outside shooter but he seems like he'd make a decent backup big.  Have no idea what the cost would be.  I've never been a huge Splitter fan and there's no telling what Scott's future holds.  Any interest from the Squawk??

As an aside, now that the Celtics have moved on from Sullinger, I'm even less impressed with their roster moves adding Al and losing Sullinger.  They seem to have gotten less physical and more finesse.  They take a big step back in rebounding (Alice's 10.6 per 48 vs Sullinger's 16.9) and only a marginal uptick in scoring (22.7 pts per 48 for Alice vs 20.9 for Sullinger). 

The reasons I think the Hawks will be better this year have probably been touched on already but I'll just put it out there like this:

1. I think they will be a more balanced team in terms of toughness down low (rebounding) versus shooting outside.  I don't know why but the idea of a Center taking more 3's and getting less Rebs just makes me sick.  I know the Hawks will be sacrificing some scoring by subbing in D12, but I think it will be a net positive as teams won't be as likely to get 2nd chances.  I also think D12 opens up shots for the wings, which can only help.

2. I think the injury to Kyle last summer was really undersold last season in terms of how it impacted his preparation.  I know he's old, but Ray Allen is pushing social security and he can still shoot.  There's a place for guys like Kyle in this league and I think he can excel next year if put in the right situation.  Shooters shoot and Kyle is every bit the sharp shooter that others are.  Give him a full summer of good workouts and I think we'll all see a lot closer to 2014-15 Kyle rather than 2015-16 Kyle.  Hopefully, he comes off the bench and is used as a specialist rather than a 35+ min guy. 

3.  I'm optimistic about Baze and Prince from an offensive standpoint.  I'm hopeful they will start Baze at SG and that Prince will eventually work into starting at SF.  A lineup of D17 / Baze / Prince / Sap / D12 is very intriguing to me. 

So basically, the increased toughness, a healthy and prepared Kyle, and the potential of Baze and Prince give me reasons to think this team will be better than last year.  The first two points are what I'm really hanging my hat on.  The 3rd pt is more hopeful. 

7 minutes ago, Ebert said:

Horford has put himself in a pretty dangerous position. He has lost any love from Hawks' fans. He will be hated in Atlanta now. And no one can guarantee he will success in Boston, their fans will expect a lot from their new "star". 

I was looking over some stats from this past season earlier today and it remarkable how Alice was basically just marginally better than a lot of their Bigs in Boston.   He's obviously a better player than Sullinger and Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk but statistically, he's not a HUGE upgrade.  It will be interesting to see if Steven's system increases his productivity compared to Bud's system.  If not, they may have some upset fans in Beantown. 

1 hour ago, hylndr11 said:

I think we are set, at this point - if we trade anything its going to net us nothing better - we have to think splitter will be healthy and baze and Dennis get better, getting rid of scott or tiago totally kills the frontcourt depth - we cant sign anyone like scott for what hes at, or Tiago, ideally we want another scorer but for us we dont have the assets to give.   If things are shitty and not coming together by the deadline, OK

Trade Paul and try to get picks and young talent, probably try and trade Dwight too especially if it looks like we are making progress with him, his contract will look like a steal - AT LEAST get some quality picks and young talent to build with; 

That would be the ideal "tanking" strategy - as mentioned before this new latest dynamic really doesnt bode well at ALL for tanking in a traditional sense too many teams trying to do it, if Boston is kicking ass or CLE or any other teams do better than expected we might be able to pull some serious building blocks from them at the deadline, although when you have two teams that are so far superior to every other one it will be a challenge. 

Here is my question - does anyone here really keep up with college and what the next couple drafts would look like,  is there anyone up and coming that looks to be a talent we should target?  I guess well find out by the deadline, if the staff thinks there is. 

That said the team will be very interesting to watch to see how bad this gets or if by some miracle this actually works. 

PS - is AL horford fking serious not even saying farewell to the fans, hes said a million times how well he was treated here - Im looking at all these players that left there teams and its all respect.  What did we do to really piss this guy off - all this bullshit out there about Howard, OK but he wanted to play with another bigger guy - none of it adds up at all.  I hope one day we get the full story,  Im sure it wasnt just one thing but do you really let ur agent have that much control in changing towns for endoresments and ur family in ur ear - this isnt the NFL. but both KD and Horford got articles out there about making a big splash to shake things up. 

CAN NOT WAIT to play Boston,  and would pay big money to see Dwight throw alice down to the floor. 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm sorry.....I can't seem to get past this statement.  Maybe I'm misreading it cuz, you know, it's Tuesday after the 4th and I'm back at work and not really fully with it today, but ARE YOU REALLY FREAKING CLAIMING THAT BOSTON IS FAR SUPERIOR TO EVERYONE ELSE NOT NAMED CLEVELAND?????

I mean, like, REALLY? 

They sub out (of starting) 10.3 pts / 8.3 Reb / 2.3 Ast / 0.6 Blk per game in Jared Sullinger and sub in Alice and his 15.2 pts / 7.3 Reb / 3.2 Ast / 1.5 Blks per game.  It's a net gain but it's marginal for a team that was middle of the pack in offensive efficiency last season.  They also lost Evan Turner and his 10.5 pts a game. 

PG: Thomas

SG: Bradley

SF: Crowder

PF: Jerebko

C: Alice

How is that "far superior to every other team"??? 

I'd  go with :

Dennis / Delaney

Baze / KK / THj

Prince / Thabo

SAP / HUMP / Moose

D12 / Splitter / Edy

I'd love to swap out Tiago, moose, and Scott for better pieces but not sure who right now.