h4wkfan

Here comes the patented 4 trae-less minutes to start the 4th. can our offense do enough to maintain a lead?

Offense looked good. Defense needs to act like they care and not sleepwalk through the 2nd half. and our offense - pace be damned - looks nothing late in the 4th quarter like it does early on in games.

Excited to Sochan play. Was my draft crush this year. oh and also see us cruise to a victory! The climb to 5 continues.

This is good stuff. The starters performance in terms of net rating + TS% worsens as the game goes. Interesting … I know pace is pretty consistent, but my hypothesis is that our offense tightens up in the 4th and we play EVEN more iso and less in the flow of the game. I think going away from our play style in the first negatively impacts our offense a lot and, in turn, it puts a lot more pressure on our d. So both suffer. maybe teams are tightening up on d, and you’re right - it’s a fit issue in crunch time could it be tired legs and we need to adjust substitution patterns? Should we run out smaller lineups with JC @ the 5 (depending on matchup) to try to run the other team out of the gym down the stretch? Running JC at C with Trae/DJ/Hunter has been an effective 4 man lineup combo.

Also - does anyone know of any sources that show lineup performance comparing 1H/2H of games? I wonder if our starting 5 out performs their norm in the first half and under in the 2nd as they get worn out? Particularly DJ with the amount Nate runs him.

The problem, to me, is Nate, depth and lineups (which is largely driven by depth). first - whoever coined iRobot nailed it with Nate. He is stuck with a process and he is unwilling to come off of it. Even if it means not riding the hot hand. next. look at all lineups that have Trae, DJ, Hunter + JC on the court together (and no Bogi). 1550+ possessions gets you +11 with 107.2 defensive points/possession. For comparison (possessions / Def Pts/Poss) … - BOS - Smart, White, Brown, Tatum, Horford (587 / 106.6) -PHI - Harden, Melton, Harris, Tucker, Embiid (784 / 115.0 - replacing Melton with Maxey does improve to a 105.4 rating across 327 possessions) -MIL - Jrue / Allen / Connaughten, Giannis, Lopez (367 / 110.4 - although replacing Pat with Jevon is elite … 346 / 96.9) so looking at points/poss - our starters have a *similar defense than a lot of the primary lineup combos of the top 3 seeds in the East. But their bench / secondary lineups are far more effective than ours. when you play bogi and trae together, across all lineup combos - nearly 1000 possessions - the team is a -5 and the Defensive Pts / Possession BALLOONS to 124.5. (There are some net positive lineups with the 2 together, but largely it is a bad pairing). Moral of the story - you can overcome Traes defense and actually put together a good defensive team if he’s playing next to 4 average to + defenders. But you can’t pair him with another very weak defender. the issue is once the starters come out - what is Nate doing and how does the bench unit fit together? Offense will take a hit without trae - but your defense can’t be even worse with him off the court. Bringing in Bey (I really hope the trade goes through) and Matthews will hopefully let us ride the more productive lineup combos and not the ones that Nate seems to play every game that let us blow leads/get out of games real quick. @JayBirdHawkis right in that I think the argument is coaching decisions are the largest driving force in how we have performed YTD … so fit is the problem BECAUSE of Nate!

Let’s not get carried away with this take. It’s not like I said something wild like Cam Reddish was Randy Moss, Horford was Karl Malone or Bagley was the 2nd coming we can have a discussion without the knee jerk responses. I was clear on my overall view of Hunter and what he can become. Not sure how that screams hater, but ok. With that said, Dre has never sniffed an all defensive team. Because you know, he’s above average, not elite … he’s not a stopper. He’s probably a top ~12 defensive/overall SF. That’s above average. He’s not what I’d consider great. If you think he is - I do like reading your opinions - what’s your top sf list look like? And just for clarity … when it comes to how I rate players. Above average > solid = average. when did I say huerter was > Hunter? I tried to explain there is a nuance to stats and what role you are playing … you know … not just looking at stats in a vacuum like those Reddit dweebs we are far better off with Hunter in his role than Huerter trying to fill Hunters shoes, BUT huerter can still be more impactful at his role than Hunter is at his yet Hunter would have a larger impact on the Atlanta Hawks as a team …

New generation of fan? I’m not 12. The passive “new generation” shtick isn’t necessary. Hunter is a big wing with above average defense. That’s the best thing he has going for him. He’s average-ish on offense. That’s not hate. That’s realistic. I can say that and still recognize his importance to our team. The two aren’t mutually exclusive. I literally can be quoted on here believing that he can become a #3 player on a championship team. He’s still young in terms of pro basketball played so he has room for growth. bey will play a different role. For the 3rd time. And in his role (which was still too much for my liking) in Detroit, He statistically had a larger positive impact than Dre has in Atlanta. What you quoted from me literally says that if he were put in the starting lineup it would hurt him. Would you rather have Huerter than Hunter start for us? No, obviously not because of fit/what role they should play to maximize team performance. huerters efficiency / impact stats > Hunter because they play a different role (and huerter is better at his role). But Hunter is far more important to us which is why he isn’t in jeopardy of losing his job. That’s my point, and I stand by it.

You may be on to something ... DJ / Bogi / AG / JJ / OO = 188 Possessions / +6.9 DJ / AHol / JHol / JJ / OO = 84 / +23.9 DJ / AHol / AG / JJ / OO = 81 / +1.2 Trae / AHol / JHol / JJ / CC = 76 / -10.0 Trae / AHol / AG / JJ / CC = 75 / -16.0 Trae / AHol / JHol / JJ / OO = 51 / -4.0 So it seems he plays much better with DJ than Trae. Perhaps he gets more touches and the ball moves better with Trae off the court. So listen up Nate. Stop pairing JJ with Trae. Doesn't work. Also that adds to the complication of getting enough time for AG / JJ / Bey. How do you split the minutes without reducing Bogi's .... because I will stand by that's not happening (Until Nate proves me wrong). Unless Bey draws the short straw.

It's closer than you want to believe. If you replaced Bey with Hunter on the Pistons team. How many more wins do they have? It's pretty dang close to 0 (maybe less since Bey played in +7 games). I also said Dre is the starter. Bey is not going to replace him ... period. But the again. #s are #s. There are some ways that Dre is more efficient (higher TS% + TS Add among them), but there are many stats that point to Bey have a larger impact to winning. I think the right role will really amplify this for Bey, but if you put him in the starting line-up with different expectation - it would hurt him as that's not his best fit. I completely agree with the analysis you shared from Reddit. Lines up pretty much with my exact belief. He could be huge boost to the offense if he plays within his role. Didn't know that he was the solo-type guy, but that doesn't concern me.

I think I know what part you are talking about. And I didn't think it was right. it's arguably close, and I could potentially be swayed 1 way or the other - but #s are #s ... His efficiency really should pick-up if he focuses in on the role that fits his skillset best. But despite the below ... he's not a Hunter replacement to me. Hunter is far too important for what his strengths are. But the 2 big wing combo of Bey / Hunter is an intriguing pairing. Season (Age) G Per 100 - Ortg Per 100 - Drtg PER WS/48 VORP Net Rtg Raptor - Off Raptor - Def WAR Dre 3rd (24) 53 106 117 10.6 0.034 -0.8 -1.6 -1.9 -0.2 0.5 Bey 3rd (23) 52 115 120 14.5 0.072 0.5 -0.1 1 -2.2 1.2 Dre 4th (25) 45 112 118 11.8 0.063 -0.4 3 -1.3 0.7 1.6

I had some spare time so - went ahead and looked at some line-up combos this year. There are few things I'd love to see us do - and also NEVER do again. Hopefully someone in the analytics department has delivered the message to Nate, he listens and the additional depth of Bey + Matthews will give us flexibility to maximize talent/fits. According to "Cleaning the Glass" ... Our starters are not the problem. 12.4 +/- when on the court together. It's when Nate has to put the bench out there / not recognize the flow of the game / ride the hot hand when things fall apart. The additions @ the deadline have improved our depth to what I think could quickly turn into a strength ... so long as iRobot learns. BOGI SHOULD NEVER PLAY NEXT TO TRAE + DEJOUNTE AT THE SAME TIME. All caps for effect. In 439 possessions - that pairing is a solid -14.8. AJ should be limited in who he is paired with - particularly as a SG. In 412 possessions as a SG, we are -18.8. However, when he is in a role where he is not creating offense - the team seems to perform better. I honestly think at this stage in his career he is not a creator. I really think he should model his game after Klay. Bogi + AJ is actually a nice pairing. We should ride that combo off the bench more often. They are +4.6 in 874 possessions. This is my hang up with how Saddiq fits since we kept Bogi. Bey is most effective as a SF. So you either put him in his worse position or you take away AJ's minutes. Unless Nate will play Bogi less. Not betting on it. I'd honestly play more combos with Bey @ SF and DH @ PF and limit JJ's minutes. I know he needs to develop. But we are a fringe playoff team, and when JJ is on the court the hawks are -4.8 and +.8 with him off. A 5 point swing to a .500 team. With the addition of Bey, hopefully we see more Dre at PF. In 2298 possessions at SF he is a +0.9. In 782 possessions at PF we are +2.8. Hoping the continued development of AJ + addition of Bey let's us see more of him in this role - even if it means squeezing JJ out (which for a team looking for playoffs ... JJ probably should play less). You know what line-ups we really should see more? Very small sample sizes, but the results speak for themselves. The fits also make sense ... Trae - AJ - Hunter - JC - Cap --> 28 Possessions + 36.4 (151.4 OffRtg - 108.8 DefRtg) Trae - DJ - AJ - Hunter - Cap --> 37 Possessions +42.5 (117.9 OffRtg - 81.5 Def Rtg) And you know what line-up I'd really like to see added to this list? Trae + AJ + Bey + Hunter + Cap With the additions, riding the hot hand/recognizing the flow of the game and making some simple line-up tweaks ... I see no reason this team shouldn't end up a top 6 seed this year. Big if's though ... For his first deadline - I think Landry nailed it.

I am overly optimistic about this addition. I think he will be a fantastic fit and I fully expect a sizable increase in his efficiency IF he buys into his role. He took on a larger role than what his skillset is built for in Detroit out of need. I'd expect his USG comes down a point or 2 in ATL. Even at that - the team was better with him in that role - poor efficiency and all. The Pistons were -8.2 with him off the court. With him on? -8.2 .... BUT look at his splits when he plays SF vs PF. -5.9 @ SF and -8.8 @ PF. The team was 2.3 points better with him in that role. He should come in as the primary back-up SF with emergency PF capabilities. The role he should be in Atlanta? Catch & shoot specialist with limited playmaking upside. If someone closes out on him over aggressively? Straight line drive - I'm good with that. Otherwise ... catch it and let it fly. BUT HE IS A 34.5% SHOOTER - WHY WOULD WE WANT THAT?! He's 37.2% on catch & shoot ... and a 43.2% 3P shooter from the corners this year. That should be his home - particularly with Trae on the court. He'll get far more good looks. I fully expect his time in ATL to be a 38%+ shooter on 5+ attempts / game. His defense has not lived up to expectations coming out of the draft. But I would not be surprised see that also improve with him actually playing for something + playing with a more competent overall defense. The Pistons defense is absolutely trash. If you actually look at his impact stats (with him playing above what I believe to be his most suited role) he's a more impactful & efficient player than Dre. However - Dre brings better defense - and when it comes to the starting 5 - we need that more. So I don't see him as a replacement in the least. Just a fantastic complement to the team. He should be one of the first guys off the bench, but he will need to adjust his role now that he is on a team that is competing for something.

So the addition of Saadiq will essentially take minutes away from AJ and JJ …. That’s excellent. I should add I’m probably higher than most on the addition of saadiq. But not sure why we kept bogi.

I defended nobody. I simply stated my observation of a pointless back and forth. If that makes you feel like I’m defending somebody, then perhaps we should refer to the bolded above and move things along.

Jay gave a few examples of trades that we see every single year for teams to cut salary. Her examples are rooted in historical facts. And to claim victory that Dedmon + a second is more considerable than JHol + a 2nd? Read the bolded above, please. Now let’s get this thread back on track! Who wins the trade deadline lottery and lands Korkmaz?!?

I would love to bring Beverly in while increasing AJ’s role. beverly has the kind of attitude we are missing.

lol. The Raptors don’t care about shooting too much i guess. 14.3% … 14.3% … 30% 0.1 … 0.1 … 2.0 That is the career 3P% and the 3PA/G of Nic Claxton, Ben Simmons and Scottie Barnes. that’d be fun to watch.

But that’s just it. His supporting cast didn’t get it done and then he didn’t get it done by himself because 1 man can’t carry a team to a chip. Not to mention the OKC choke. so do you expect murray / dre to do what kyrie and harden couldn’t? I’m not willing to trade my superstar and future to lose in the conference finals. Trae has already shown us he’s capable of getting us there … and almost winning … with less help. pairing trae / KD? Yes trading trae for KD? No

How many rings does KD have outside of his years with golden state? How did he do Kyrie + Harden? What about Harden + Westbrook? How many rings again? why do we think bringing him here would make us a contender if it costs us our offensive engine in the process? Jc + Murray or something? Sure. But not at the expense of our lone superstar. That’s crazy talk. He’s played 35 / 55 / and on pace for 62 games. At 34. He’s not getting younger. That’s not someone you trade your future for.

Vanderbilt is an excellent PF off the bench. Nothing more.

Start AJ! Line jumped quickly with Trae out … the wrong way. Hawks by 7.

This would seem more plausible. And I’d be all for it given Siakam has been the guy I’ve wanted for the last ~3 years. ATL IN: Siakam, Birch, Crowder PHX In: Cap, Bogi, Thad Young TOR IN: J Collins, Ayton (or re route JC to get them a PG) leave us at … Trae / DJM / Hunter / Pascal / OO Ahol / AJ / Crowder / JJ / Birch Also don’t like having both DJ and Pascal expire the same year but because it’s pascal … I’ll overlook it

The Holiday bros for George Hill + Serge is fine by me.

Bunch of mental midgets on this team. SMH. Careless careless careless. then Nate is sitting there doing nothing to help without even the slightest hint of a scheme outside of take turns 1v1.