Insider Report: MVP Watch - Top 10

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NBA MVP Watch: Will the winner find happiness at the end?

by Terry Brown

Thursday, October 17 Updated 10:46 AM EST

Who fits the costume this year?

Allen Iverson won the MVP two years ago after averaging 31.1 points, 3.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 2.5 steals. A year later, he averaged 31.4 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 2.8 steals and David Stern wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot sound byte.

And maybe it had something to do with the Sixers going from 56 wins and the Eastern Conference Title in 2001 to 43 wins and first-round elimination in 2002.

Which means that Jason Kidd, who boosted his team's win total from 26 and the draft lottery in 2001 to 52 and the Eastern Conference title in 2002, won it last year . . . right?

Or maybe it had something to do with the fact that he averaged 16.9 points and 9.8 assists on 41 percent shooting two seasons ago but only 14.7 points and 9.9 assists on 39 percent shooting last year.

Proving that Tim Duncan was, indeed, the rightful winner of the MVP award after improving his averages of 22.2 points and 12.2 rebounds on 49 percent shooting two seasons ago to 25.5 points and 12.7 rebounds on 50 percent shooting last season.

But his team won 58 games two years ago and went to the Western Conference Finals, losing to eventual champion Los Angeles and then won 58 games again last year but was eliminated in the second round by those same Lakers.

Which means Shaquille O'Neal should have been the MVP after pushing the Lakers from 56 wins in 2001 to 58 wins in 2002 and then putting up 30 points and 13.6 rebounds per game against the Kings in the Western Conference Finals and 36.3 points and 12.3 rebounds per game against the Nets in the finals.

But the votes were already cast by then, and Shaq averaged only 27.2 points, 10.7 rebounds and 2 blocks per regular-season game on 58 percent shooting compared to his MVP season of 2000 when he averaged 29.7 points, 13.6 rebounds and 3 blocks on 57 percent shooting.

Tomayto. Tomawto. Ketchup or catsup. But shouldn't we be talking steak sauce.

In the last five seasons there have five different MVPs (Duncan, Iverson, O'Neal, Karl Malone and Michael Jordan). This has happened only one other time in NBA history. And that was rather recently, beginning in 1993 with Charles Barkley followed by Hakeem Olajuwon then David Robinson then Jordan then Malone.

In that 10-year span, there have been eight different MVPs, six of them not winning the title the year of their ascension and three of them not even qualifying for the biggest set of games of the year which we casually refer to as the NBA Championship.

But in that same amount of time, there have been only four different Finals MVPs. That list reads: Jordan, Olajuwon, Duncan, O'Neal.

You pin the tail on the donkey, flip a coin, eenie, meenie, minnie, moe . . . and tell me which list is watered down and losing integrity the next time the award comes pre-packaged with a butterfly collar and flared pants.

The Top 10 Contenders

Shaquille O'Neal, Los Angeles Lakers

Last year's numbers: 27.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 3 apg, 0.6 spg, 2 bpg, 58% field, 0% three, 55% line

Beef: With his own two hands, Shaq has destroyed every player who has won the MVP award beside him on his way to three consecutive NBA Finals MVP crownings. We may write the headlines but he takes care of the history. Expect a 60-game tear the likes of which few of us have seen and the voters to make amends.

Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs

Last year's numbers: 25.5 ppg, 12.7 rpg, 3.7 apg, 0.7 spg, 2.4 bpg, 50% field, 10% three, 78% line

Beef: Now comes the hard part. Not only did he win last year's MVP award from the semifinal scarp pile by default, but he could be defending it from the very same place. That's too bad. He's only going to get better as will his team . . . then what?

Jason Kidd, New Jersey Nets

Last year's numbers: 14.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 9.9 rpg, 2.1 spg, 0.2 bpg, 39% field, 32% three, 81% line

Beef: What can he possibly do for an encore this side of reality except re-sign? Then, again, the voters for this thing often confuse historical perspective with lifetime achievement so the All-Star turned All-NBAer turned MVP runner-up need only be present for the canned applause.

Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers

Last year's numbers: 25.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 5.5 apg, 1.4 spg, 0.4 bpg, 47% field, 25% three, 83% line

Beef: LeBron James. LeBron James. LeBron James. For six seasons now, Bryant has fought off the image of the brash and cocky youngster. Next year, he does so in physical form as a decorated veteran. As the alpha shooting guard in the NBA, he either sets precedence or prepares to get pushed aside. There can be only one.

Tracy McGrady, Orlando Magic

Last year's numbers: 25.6 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 5.3 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.9 bpg, 45% field, 36% three, 74% line

Beef: Everything Kobe wanted to be when he grew up until he actually grew up. Now, McGrady need only affect the game beyond his numbers as he has obviously done everything physically possible with them. That's easier said than dunked. But I bet you thought he couldn't get any better.

Chris Webber, Sacramento Kings

Last year's numbers: 24.5 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 4.8 apg, 1.6 spg, 1.4 bpg, 49% field, 26% three, 75% line

Beef: For the man who has everything, he now plays on the verge of losing it all. Who knows? This could be the very thing that motivates him beyond palm leaves and rose petals and into calluses and elbow grease.

Kevin Garnett, Minnesota Timberwolves

Last year's numbers: 21.2 ppg, 12.1 rpg, 5.2 apg, 1.2 spg, 1.5 bpg, 47% field, 32% three, 80% line

Beef: After seven seasons in the NBA, you'd think we'd be able to tell if this kid is either the greatest complementary player in the history of the game or just another proverbial superstar never to win a dang thing. Or maybe the stars will align, Minnesota will be moved to the East, KG'll leave boxscores with stretch marks and all this whole thing will be moot.

Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics

Last year's numbers: 26.1 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 3.2 apg, 1.8 spg, 1 bpg, 44% field, 40% three, 80% line

Beef: Perhaps the game's most complete player teeters on becoming a three-point shooting sideshow if he isn't careful. He just got a glimpse of Celtic glory past, but knows darn well that the team needs more points, more rebounds, more assists, more steals and more blocks for a full return. But often in the heat of battle, all that gets through is more points. The World Championships as Exhibit A.

Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks

Last year's numbers: 23.4 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1 spg, 1 bpg, 47% field, 39% three, 85% line

Beef: Simply a player not thought possible a few years ago, on the brink of nightly double-double numbers while hitting almost two three-pointers a game at 40 percent. If this 7-foot stormtrooper gets remotely as good defensively, we'd all better run for cover.

Vince Carter, Toronto Raptors

Last year's numbers: 24.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 4 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.7 bpg, 42% field, 38% three, 79% line

Beef: He is not the broken-down, one-trick pony made out to be at the end of last season. But it sure does feel that way. He remains one of the most gifted athletes on the planet but he has one year to satisfy those fickle fans or risk losing them forever. Or what sure feels like forever. Being last on this list is the proper and fitting backhanded compliment if he thinks some double-reverse, triple-half ganor flush is all it's gonna take.