Interesting article in the NYTimes about the draft

[flava]

West Guarding His Draft Move

By MIKE WISE

hat will Jerry West cull this year? An Eddie Jones, his first-round pick in 1994, or Earl Jones, West's 1984 ill-fated attempt at draft-day ingenuity? Will he pull a deal for a Kobe Bryant at No. 13 as he did with Charlotte in 1996? Or mortgage the franchise for that one special franchise center?

With about 72 hours left before the 2002 N.B.A. draft begins at Madison Square Garden, some things never change. West, the best personnel man in the league, is not tipping his hand, and 28 other executives are waiting so they can make their move.

West, recently named the Memphis Grizzlies' team president, has not spent much time scouring the world for talent the past couple of years. Semiretired from his presidency with the Los Angeles Lakers in the summer of 2000, he said he missed the competition.

Not that it missed him. With the first three selections almost set in stone — Yao Ming to Houston, Jay Williams to Chicago and Mike Dunleavy to Golden State — many general managers will alter their plans based on West's decision at No. 4. He is the last man to raise the ante at the poker table, and his eyes and lips are not moving.

West is said to be deciding between Kansas' Drew Gooden, Connecticut's Caron Butler and Nikoloz Tskitishvili, the 7-foot 19-year-old from the Republic of Georgia.

Evaluating the Drafters

In preparation for the coming draft, the Atlanta Hawks staff delved into their draft reports over 10 years, evaluating what they did right and where they went wrong.

"The benchmark was three years after the draft that you judged a player," said Pete Babcock, the general manager. "That was pretty much standard. But now with the number of young players coming in, you don't know anymore. I mean, how long is it going to take an 18-year-old to find his niche? Five years, maybe?"

One of Babcock's all-time miscalculations happened to be a high school player, Tracy McGrady in 1997.

"I was very wrong about McGrady," he said last week. "I didn't think he was special. From what I saw of him in high school, he didn't cross halfcourt regularly, his effort wasn't terrific, he didn't understand how hard he had to work.

"His rookie year bore some of that out in Toronto. Three years later, he's a big-time player. That's a guy I was wrong on, all right."

McGrady was taken No. 9 that season by Toronto.

Layden Emerges

Hyperbole is building up in Midtown Manhattan, where Scott Layden is getting ready for another round of hits unless he strikes it big in the draft lottery. The thinking is, he needs to find an Andrei Kirilenko or a Bryon Russell, two of his finds in Utah, to avoid more scathing criticism.

But whatever happens Wednesday, a more visible and vocal Layden has emerged from the hermit general manager who rarely spoke candidly about the Knicks.

Anyone notice Layden's glowing praise of Chris Wilcox last week? Layden was also host of a chat session with fans and spoke at length about the draft with a talk-radio host on Friday afternoon. Chris Russo of WFAN radio was so shocked by Layden's frankness, he said, "Good job, Scott, you must have got some help," at the end of the interview. To which Layden replied, "It's been an honor, Chris."

Next to Jerry Krause, this was the Greta Garbo of team executives.

What gives?

Grievance Ruling Awaited

It may not be labor Armageddon, but the outcome of a grievance hearing next month may go a long way toward how many teams go over the luxury tax to sign players.

The grievance filed by the players union against the league nearly a month ago challenges the N.B.A.'s method of distributing tax and escrow proceeds.

The union claims the luxury tax is supposed to be dollar for dollar above a certain threshold. If teams could spend no more than $55 million, then a team spending $60 million would have to pony up a $5 million tax. The union contends the league is making the penalty significantly harsher, claiming that more penalties are actually levied against teams.

At issue is the notion that any team over the luxury tax will not share in the pool-tax proceeds going back to teams that keep their payrolls down. So a team $1 million over the threshold — which could have perhaps gotten back $3 million in proceeds — is really penalized as much as a team $20 million over the threshold.

The second part of the penalty involves the 10 percent of escrow money put away by teams. The league does not want any team over the luxury tax to have all of its escrow money returned in the same year, thereby prohibiting the most exorbitant owners from overspending the competition.

Milwaukee General Manager Ernie Grunfeld last season bemoaned the fact that if he signed Anthony Mason for $5 million, breaking the threshold would cost the Bucks $10 million with the tax.

The league thinks it has a language provision in the collective bargaining agreement that allows it to use the tax and escrow proceeds any way it sees fit. The union thinks the process is a disincentive to teams for signing players, that the league will use the luxury tax as a stick to threaten teams financially.

Either way, the luxury tax is affecting many teams heading into Wednesday's draft. Many general managers are speculating that a lot of young foreigners will be taken in the late first round and second round for the sole purpose of keeping them in Europe for a couple of seasons so they can get away without having to pay a tax on their salaries.