Walter's question: Odds of getting a big man

[CBAreject]

...caliber without going through the draft lottery? Just curious. First you must ask yourself how many players or prospects of this caliber exist in the league. I'd say no more than 8-10. Since the new CBA how many times has a top 8-10 player (not AI) left his original team through FAcy or a trade? If there are any, what is the ratio of trades or transaction overall to that deal or deals and what did it cost the other team?

In short, given the generally good odds of getting a franchise player/franchise center, let's say its an average of a 40% chance of winning a top 2 draft position if we finish bottom 3, how can these other odds of "craning" our way to a superstar not utterly pale in comparison if not be negligable?

W

Above is text from his post which was deleted

[CBAreject]

Don't ask innumerates about odds and percentages. They might answer you, but their answers will be garbage.

Most likely, their answer will not involve numbers. They'll say things like "pretty good" and "if you play your cards right".

The problem is, this team has exactly 1 fringe all-star player (JJ). That has never been enough to compete for a title. Most title winning teams have 2 all-stars, with one of them being an MVP caliber big man. That's where we're short.

Who was the last MVP caliber big man to leave his team?

Shaq. He was traded to Miami (for a huge package, mind).

Before Shaq?

Shaq (1996). He signed with LA.

Mourning (1996). Traded for all-star Glen Rice, et al.

Barkley (1992). Traded for large package

Some might argue Webber, but he wasn't an MVP candidate until after he was traded to Sac.

That's about 3 cases in 15 years. Two involved the same player (Shaq). Two trades involved the same man (Pat Riley).

In comparison to MVP caliber bigmen acquired through the draft in the last 15 yrs (KG, Duncan, Nowitzki, Yao, Stoudamire, Shaq, Mourning, Robinson) that list is pathetic

What about other all-stars and big men?

Steve Nash signed as max FA

Ray Allen traded for another all-star

Tracy McGrady traded for another all-star

AI traded for a huge package including a star point

Brand traded for #2 pick

Kidd traded for all-star Marbury

Grant Hill signed as max FA

Ben Wallace signed as max FA

Peja signed as max FA

Artest/Peja traded for eachother

Glen Rice traded for huge package and all-star Eddie Jones

I'm sure I'm forgetting someone, but in all these cases (and there are few over the last 10 years), when an all-star moves, it's either for another all-star (we have none), a MAX FA contract (we have no room, and it's rare anyway), or a huge package of semi-stars and picks

[Lascar78]

I didn't know we had to get an MVP caliber big man. I also didn't know Oden had won an MVP. We're not screwed if we don't get an MVP caliber big man.

How many MVP caliber big men are there in the league anyhow? Shaq no longer qualifies. Duncan and Nowitski if you include PFs? Yao? (I don't think so)

[CBAreject]

I didn't say we needed an MVP caliber big man, but finals teams usually have one. We need at least an all-star at the 4 or 5 to come close.

Look at championship winners for the last 15 years. Except for the Detroit teams (with 2 defensive studs at 4/5 including DPOY Big Ben) and the Chicago teams (with best player of all time) have won titles without MVP caliber big men.

For last 15 yrs...

Miami (Shaq)

Detroit (no MVP threat, but Wallace bros.)

LAL (Shaq)

Spurs (Duncan/Robinson)

Rockets (Olajuwon)

Bulls (no MVP big, but Michael freakin Jordan)

Even when you look at teams with just Finals appearances, you see MVP big men on most of them.

Dallas (Nowitzki)

Orlando (Shaq)

Knicks (Ewing)

Jazz (Malone)

Even the Sonics had Kemp when he was one of the best.

The Knicks (of spreewell), Nets, and Philly teams who didn't have that dominant big man were some of the worst finals teams out of the last 15 yrs. The Blazers of 1992 also didn't have a dominant big (and didn't stand a chance).

That's like 4 teams who made the finals out of 30 spots in 15 years with out a dominant big. All of them failed to put up much of a fight.

You're right. Those are lousy odds. Oh wait, that was my position.

[Guest Walter]

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I didn't know we had to get an MVP caliber big man. I also didn't know Oden had won an MVP. We're not screwed if we don't get an MVP caliber big man.

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I'd say we are. Should we not get at least an All-star caliber big man/post presence, preferably at center this team will never and I mean NEVER contend. Even if you don't agree with certainties, an otherwise equal team WITH an All-star caliber post player will much more often than not beat one without one. Simple enough for you? Goes double for an otherwise equal team with an MVP caliber big over one without an All-star caliber big and at least single over a mere all-star caliber big.

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How many MVP caliber big men are there in the league anyhow? Shaq no longer qualifies. Duncan and Nowitski if you include PFs? Yao? (I don't think so)

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Which is one reason you shouldn't question Oden's capacity to be one. Currently with one hand he's averaging Shaq's LSU freshman stats in the same MPG. Like I said we may not need an MVP, but certainly an All-star. I'd rather hedge my bet with an MVP potential prospect like Oden.

W

[Lascar78]

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Look at championship winners for the last 15 years. Except for the Detroit teams (with 2 defensive studs at 4/5 including DPOY Big Ben) and the Chicago teams (with best player of all time) have won titles without MVP caliber big men.

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In the past 20 years, those "exceptions" account for 9 of the 20 titles, or roughly half. And I'm not including Miami last year even though Shaq last year was nowhere near the MVP candidate he was in his prime. Wade won that title.

Anyhow, Detroit didn't have an MVP big (1 title). Chicago didn't have an MVP big (6 titles). Detroit in the 80s didn't have MVP bigs. As a matter of fact, in those 20 years, only 5 saw a C get a finals MVP (Shaq, Hakeem). 2 went to a PF (Duncan). 13 of the 20 finals MVPs went to non-bigs.

The bottom line is you need studs to win. You can win with MVP caliber guards (MJ, Magic, Isaiah, Dumars, Billups), you can win with MVP caliber bigs (Shaq, Hakeem, Duncan). You can especially win if you've got studs inside and outside. There is no rule that only MVP centers win titles.

If every team that didn't have an MVP caliber big tanked, there would be about 27 or 28 teams tanking every year.

Tanking when our team is trying to turn the corner, and we lose anything lower than the 3 pick makes no sense to me. It would be different if there were 15 games left and we're in the bottom 2. We've got 60% of the season left and we're 4.5 games out of the playoffs when damn near every player has had a major injury.

[Guest Walter]

In which case every single NBA champion in the last 20 or so years had one at this relatively meager level. Of course, you much prefer an MVP-level big and as rare as they are, when you potentially can get one you try and do so.

Play the odds. They get better the better your post players are. What are the odds of getting Oden, Thabeet, or even Durant? Avg. of 50-60% if we're bottom 3. What are the odds of getting a similar caliber player/prospect in general and with our ownership? Pathetic.

W

[Lascar78]

Yeah if only we had a Bill Wennington we'd be good to go!

If you're going to include guys like Kemp, one of Josh Smith / Marvin / Shelden could easily become an all-star PF. Just not when they're 20

[Guest Walter]

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If you're going to include guys like Kemp, one of Josh Smith / Marvin / Shelden could easily become an all-star PF. Just not when they're 20

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snicker.

I simply won't entertain SW as an All-star big. It does not compute.

W

[CBAreject]

Um, you're counting Chicago's 6 titles to support your point, which is just fine....as long as you find me a MICHAEL FRIGGIN JORDAN to dominate from the guard position. Joe Johnson can be our Scottie Pippen, so we're fine as long as we get freaking MJ (in his prime, no less).

There are only two guards in the NBA special enough to *possibly* win a championship without a dominant big: Kobe Bryant and LeBron James...and they have yet to do it. Wade is awesome, too, but his team is mediocre without Shaq.

You are not impressing me by citing Michael Jordan's team 6 times.

Also, by citing the Pistons teams, you are saying we can somehow bring in two stalwart defensive bigs to play the 4 and 5. OK, so we get Thabeet. That's what I've been saying all along. We don't HAVE to get Oden. We do, however, NEED this pick to hope for a finals appearance with the current roster. Otherwise, we'll be blowing it up again after sustained mediocrity. We have virtually no mechanism for acquiring a dominant bigman (offensively or defensively) without tanking this year.

I love JJ, but he'll be needs to either be the 2nd option or a co-star with a dominant big (see Shaq/Kobe).

[CBAreject]

Wait, wait. If Shelden is the 12/11 PF that I projected, he is just fine. BUT, you need him to play beside a DPOY caliber center. See, in that case, you're going for the Detroit model: two stalwart defensive bigs instead of one all-star to mvp level big.

BUT, where do we get the center? I hope some don't think we can sign him with our cap committed to Speedy/Lo/Lue in the coming off-season. Besides, once the booby prize Kaman got locked up for 5 yrs, we lost our only shot at an acceptable C. And he has shown that despite being better than Zaza, he was not worth the big bucks.

[Lascar78]

No I'm not saying that we have to copy any of those teams to win. You are. I'm saying there are infinitely many different ways of winning a title. If you have enough talent, good chemistry and coaching, you can win a title. Hell the 5 last years saw 4 different positions get the finals MVP (PG Billups, SG Wade, PF Duncan, C Shaq).

I do think that JJ needs help. But it doesn't HAVE to be a big. I'm pretty sure we'd be looking great right now if JJ had pippen starting at the 3.

[Lascar78]

A) We don't have to follow someone's model

B) We have a ton of young talent that the rest of the league would LOVE to have. At some point we're going to have to trade some of it to adress the weak areas of our team. That's nothing new.

[CBAreject]

I agree we don't have to follow a model, but what kind of championship plan is a team worst at the 1 and 5 (the most important positions).

We don't have to follow a particular model, but there are only 5 positions in basketball. The positions that are capable of dominating the game are the 4/5. Post scoring is just so much more efficient, and for that reason, post defense is so much more important. This is the best way to win, but you are right! It isn't the only way.

The point is, if you aren't going to follow the dominant-big model, you have to do something extraordinary.

Chicago had the best player of all-time (and they tanked and drafted him)

Detroit played the best defense of all-time.

I guess you might think Phoenix (when and if they win it) will be some exception. Sure, they have a great system with a PG who's the best of his era in that system...but they have a dominant big.

There just aren't many iterations with only 5 players. It seems like a lot higher percentage move to try for the dominant big. You can try for your MJ, I guess. There was a potential MJ in the draft a couple of years ago, but we were too busy trying to win 33 games with SAR/Big Dog. Otherwise, you need some great system like Detroit had, and I have yet to hear an idea for a great system that doesn't include a great PG and at the very least a dominant defensive C.

[Guest Walter]

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No I'm not saying that we have to copy any of those teams to win. You are.

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It's not copying a team to say teams are historically significantly better off WITH a dominate post presence. But I get it. You're back to saying nothing.

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I'm saying there are infinitely many different ways of winning a title.

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More nothing.

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If you have enough talent,

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We don't come even close. We have no other means to acquire significantly more talent than through the top 3 of this draft. Must I continue?

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good chemistry

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Chemistry....like selling the current team's players on their obvious better prospects with Oden than without. Nothing like an instant 3,000-5,000 person spike in attendence to assist with chemistry. Nothing like Joe-fan coming up to them on the street and saying "You guys look like a definate team now!" Nothing like Oden standing behind them or Thabeet wagging his finger "NOT IN OUR HOUSE"! Chemistry does not make success without it first taking success. It's circular. Not mere 12-18 season ending pathetic rays of false sunshine, but REAL success. Success you can feed off.

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and coaching, you can win a title.

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Yes, coaching is obviously one of the many important things that lead to a title, however,...

There are a whole lot more things that win you a title than those 3. Your talent (remember, we don't have near enough as it is) has to be across positions, you have to have experience, free of or a reduced number of injuries at least in the playoffs, you generally need at least two star to super-star players, one of them a superstar, preferably not with overlapping skill-sets or positions.

All that being said "copying" successful teams you can reasonably expect to copy is following a proven strategy. Again, MUCH better odds. You don't have to reinvent the wheel AND win the title. Just win the title. You don't have to win the title with all 6'8" players. Just win the GD title. The odds are, following a proven strategy you can follow will get you there MUCH more often than a team full of 6'8" players will or any other gimmick.

W

[Iman]

I'd look at another way. If we finish with a bottom two record, it's still only around 50/50 that we get to keep the pick and less than 50/50 that we get Oden if we did keep the pick. That's more like a 20% chance of geting Oden if we finish bottom two, and I'm sure it's gonna be hard to be worse than Philly unless Iguodala become Bobby Sura II.

And I dont think it's that hard to get a good player today since so many are overpaid and teams are stuck with them. Utah snatched up a few good players when they had capspace, why cant we? Jermaine O'Neal is very good and it seems that he's obtainable for two prospects and the capspace. Same goes for KG. The Clippers will be dumping soon if they dont turn it around. Brand would be nice and shouldnt cost that much. Bosh or Gasol or Randolph might be let go if their teams dont turn around. Smaller deals that might get us a good player might be getting Channing Frye from NY for not much more than capspace or Lamarcus Aldridge from Portland for a Chillz type player. Then you have free agent signings which we should have a better than normal shot at given our capspace. I easily see 6-8 "put us into contention players" moving in the NBA in the next 2 yrs which gives an average NBA team around a 1 outta 5 or 20% chance. Maybe you'd say much lower for us given BK's history, I'd say higher given our assets, either way, close to tanking odds in my mind and not so disruptive to our young talent.

I'd actually give us about a 10% chance of getting Dwight Howard. I know that sounds ridiculous, but he impresses me as a person that might just decide he wants to use his home of Atlanta as the place for him and his mission and he might refuse to resign with Orlando.