Insider Special: Breaking Down the Lottery

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Lottery madness:

Cavs blow 25 shots at LeBron

by Chad Ford

Thursday, April 17 Updated 10:48 AM EST

In a season where almost everything that could've gone wrong did, the Cavs had one last trick up their sleeve on Wednesday night -- the perfect ending for a miserable season.

Their 96-86 victory over the Raptors put them into a tie with Nuggets for the worst record in the league. The Warriors pulled the same stunt last season and it meant the difference between Jay Williams (who would've been much better in Golden State's up-tempo system) and Mike Dunleavy.

Now both the Cavs and Nuggets will have a 22.5 percent chance (or 225 pingpong balls) of winning the top pick. In case both teams fall out of the lottery, the league will flip a coin to decide which picks fourth and which picks fifth.

The Cavs and Nuggets also will have a 20.3 percent chance at the second pick and a 17.63 percent chance at the third pick.

The Cavs did their best to tank the game. Leading scorer Ricky Davis sat out with a "ankle sprain." Cavs players were defiant after the game.

"Winning," Milt Palacio told the Cleveland Plain Dealer. "I heard that some fans wanted us to lose [to guarantee the league's worst record], but I'm not going to tank any games. I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm out here to play my best and to win games."

The loss probably came as a relief to the Raptors, however. The draft is widely considered a three-horse race with LeBron James, Darko Milicic and Carmelo Anthony, and the Raptors locked up the third seed by losing to the Cavs.

They'll own a 15.7 percent chance at LeBron, a 15.8 percent chance at the second pick and a 15.66 percent chance at the third pick in the draft.

The Heat fell to fourth place and hold a 12 percent chance of winning the lottery, a 12.68 percent chance of getting the second pick and 13.39 percent chance of getting the fourth pick.

The Clippers are in fifth place with an 8.9 percent chance of winning. The Grizzlies are in sixth place with a 6.4 percent chance of hitting the jackpot. If they don't win the No. 1 overall pick, they must send their pick to the Pistons this year in fulfillment of the Otis Thorpe trade back in 1998.

The Bulls are in seventh place with a 4.4 percent chance. The Hawks are in eighth place with a 2.9 percent chance. If the Hawks do not get one of the top three picks (they have a 3.37 percent chance at No. 2 and a 4.02 percent chance at No. 3), they must send their pick to Bucks to complete the Glenn Robinson-for-Toni Kukoc trade.

The Wizards and Knicks finished tied for the the ninth-best shot at LeBron. The NBA will flip a coin to determine who gets a 1.5 percent and who gets a 1.4 percent shot at James.

The Warriors have the 11th-best shot at 0.7 percent. The Sonics have the 12th-best at 0.6 percent. And the Rockets round out the lottery group with a 0.5 percent chance. However, the Rockets must send this pick to the Grizzlies to fulfill the Steve Francis trade in 1999.

A few other draft situations were cleared up on Wednesday.

The Bucks will send their first-round pick (No. 15) to the Sonics as long as the Hawks' pick falls somewhere between No. 4 and No. 13. If the Hawks' pick is in the top three, the Bucks will send the Sonics two second-round picks.

The Sixers will send their first-round pick (No. 20) to the Celtics.

The Pacers will send their first-round pick (No. 21) to the Hawks.

The Kings will send their first-round pick this year (No. 27) to the Magic.

Here's a look at how the entire first round will likely play out.

1 (tie) Cleveland Cavaliers (22.5% chance)

1 (tie) Denver Nuggets (22.5% chance)

3 Toronto Raptors (15.7% chance)

4 Miami Heat (12% chance)

5 Los Angeles Clippers (8.9% chance)

6 Detroit Pistons (via Grizzlies) (6.4% chance)*

7 Chicago Bulls (4.4% chance)

8 Milwaukee Bukcs (via Hawks) (2.9% chance)**

9 (tie) Washington Wizards (1.5% chance)

9 (tie) New York Knicks (1.5% chance)

11 Golden State Warriors (.7% chance)

12 Seattle Supersonics (.6% chance)

13 Memphis Grizzlies (via Rockets) (.5% chance)

14 Orlando Magic

15 Seattle Supersonics (via Bucks)***

16 (tie) Phoenix Suns

16 (tie) Boston Celtics

18 (tie) Utah Jazz

18 (tie) New Orleans Hornets

20 (tie) Atlanta Hawks (via Pacers)

20 (tie) Golden State Warriors (via Sixers)

22 New Jersey Nets

23 (tie) Detroit Pistons

23 (tie) Portland Trailblazers

23 (tie) Los Angeles Lakers

26 Minnesota Timberwolves

27 Orlando Magic (via Kings)

28 (tie) Dallas Mavericks

28 (tie) San Antonio Spurs

* -- Grizzlies must send their pick to the Pistons unless it is the No. 1 pick in the draft

** -- Hawks must send their pick to Bucks unless it is the No. 1, 2, or 3 pick in draft

*** -- Bucks will send their first-round pick (No. 15) to the Sonics as long as the Hawks' pick falls somewhere between No. 4 and No. 13. If the Hawks' pick is in the top three, the Bucks will send the Sonics two second-round picks.