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Playoff studs and duds

By Chad Ford

NBA Insider

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Today, Insider takes a look at the top playoff performers and the unfortunate choke artists ...

Playoff studs

Isiah Thomas may laugh off all the backseat coaches who screamed incredulously at the TV screen as the Pacers let a 13-point lead slip away in the fourth quarter of Game 1. Of all the errors Thomas and the Pacers made in that game, only one was unforgivable.

Reggie Miller

Shooting Guard

Indiana Pacers

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

70 12.6 2.5 2.4 .441 .900

Reggie Miller should never be waving towels from the end of the bench during the fourth quarter.

"You don't mind the second-guessing when it makes sense, but when you're asking me to take certain people out, that's something different,'' Thomas said. "I can understand in Reggie's situation where you would have some questions, but I think (Ron) Artest and (Al) Harrington are two of our better defenders. And at the end of the game, when you have a lead, you want to have your best defenders out there.''

Whatever.

Yes, Reggie's limping and yes, at the age of 37, he's finally slowing down. But you never sit the NBAs premier postseason player with the game on the line.

Of all the accomplished players in the playoffs this season, none of them has anything on Miller.

In 111 playoff games, Miller has averaged 23.4 ppg. That's an astounding jump from his 18.9 ppg career regular-season average. In fact, no one in the NBA with at least 30 playoff appearances has a more impressive statistical increase than Miller.

"You have no idea how impressive that statistic really is," one GM told Insider. "Most guys struggle to take their game to the next level in the playoffs, because defenses are so much better. Teams love to take away what you do best. You just don't get the same looks in the playoffs that you get in the post-season. It's really an amazing feat."

He's right. Most veteran players perform equal to or slightly below their career averages in the playoffs.

Shaquille O'Neal's postseason average improves only slightly from 27.6 ppg in the regular season to 28.2 ppg in the playoffs. Kobe Bryant's numbers actually slip from 21.5 ppg on 45.6 percent shooting in the regular season to 21.1 ppg on 44.1 percent shooting in the playoffs.

And while ultimately it's the rings that matter, no one steps it up quite like Reggie.

There are, however, a handful other veteran stars whose numbers take an impressive jump in the playoffs.

Iverson

The Sixers' Allen Iverson's 55-point performance against the Hornets on Sunday goes a long way toward cementing his status as a top playoff performer. Iverson has averaged 30.8 ppg in 46 playoff games for his career. His regular-season average is 27 ppg.

The Hornets' Baron Davis has played in only 24 playoff games. But his 17.3 ppg average in the playoffs vs. his 13.9 ppg average in the regular season bears noting.

There's always one guy on these lists who shock you. The Suns' Penny Hardaway is that guy here. Hardaway averages 16.9 ppg and 5.7 apg during the regular season. However, that number jumps to 21.3 ppg and 6.3 apg in the playoffs. Of course, there's a caveat there. Most of those big numbers came early in his career with the Magic, when he averaged nearly 20 ppg. However, during his only playoff series with the Suns in 2000, he averaged 20.3 ppg (up from his 16.9 ppg that year). So far, in the Suns' two playoff games this season, Hardaway is averaging 14 ppg, up from his 10.6 ppg average during the season.

He's not in the playoffs this season, but Seattle's Ray Allen is another top playoff performer. His 19.9 ppg on 45 percent shooting and 40 percent 3-point shooting inthe regular season pales in comparison to his playoff numbers of 24.2 ppg on 47 percent shooting and 46 percent shooting from beyond the arc.

Playoff duds

Ben Wallace may be the heart and soul of the Pistons' defense. Richard Hamilton and Chauncey Billups may be the engine that drives their offense.

But if the Pistons plan on getting past the Magic in the first round, the guy they'll need more than ever is Cliff Robinson.

Clifford Robinson

Forward-Center

Detroit Pistons

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

81 12.2 3.9 3.3 .398 .676

The Pistons are paging Robinson. "Mr. Robinson, please report to the playoffs."

It's a familiar call for Robinson, who has never missed the playoffs in his 13-year career. Unfortunately for the Pistons, the call is usually followed up by the following statement: Uncle Cliffy, where are you?

Robinson's 19-point performance in Game 1 was encouraging. But the Pistons are bracing themselves for the inevitable.

There isn't a worse career playoff performer in the NBA right now than Robinson. We crunched some numbers, using players with at least 30 playoff game performances, and when it comes to playoff futility, no one stinks quite the way Robinson stinks.

Robinson, who has career averages of 15.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg and 2.4 apg on 44.4 percent shooting and 36 percent shooting from 3, falters when he gets to the postseason.

In 109 career playoff games, Robinson has averaged just 11.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg and 1.8 apg on 40 percent shooting and 27 percent shooting from 3.

That's awful.

Even Latrell Sprewell doesn't choke with that consistency.

Whether it was fizzling for the Suns or disappearing for the Blazers, Robinson is the game's most notorious postseason clanker.

Robinson's defense in the past has been, ironically, defense. "Defense. Defense. You've got to defend. You're not always going to make shots, but you've got to defend," he said last season after laying an egg in the first round of the playoffs. "That's what I'm all about. I'm all about doing what it takes to win. Some nights it might take offense. But you need defense every night."

Still, most nights, the Pistons need offense and rebounds, something Robinson hasn't been "all about" in his previous 109 playoff games.

Robinson shouldn't shoulder all of the ridicule of being a playoff choke artist -- but there aren't many. But there are a few other notable exceptions that bear mentioning.

Mashburn

The Hornets' Jamal Mashburn averages 19 ppg on 42 percent shooting for his career but slips to 14.5 ppg on 38 percent shooting in the playoffs. However, things seem to be changing. Mash averaged 24.9 ppg during Charlotte's 2000-01 playoff run. An abdominal injury last postseason limited him to just 10 minutes. Mash's 28-point effort versus the Sixers in Game 1 was nice, but his 38 percent shooting from the field was one of the reasons the Hornets stumbled.

Peja Stojakovic has gotten the reputation of getting cold feet come playoff time. An ankle injury last season contributed to his poor performance in the playoffs, but the numbers are tough to dispute. Peja averages 16.7 ppg on 46.5 percent shooting in the regular season. In the postseason? 13.9 ppg on 38 percent shooting.

The Bucks' Sam Cassell averages just 12.2 ppg on 40.9 percent shooting in 83 career playoff games. That's well below his career averages of 15.9 ppg on 45 percent shooting. The good news for Bucks fans is that Cassell is red hot this year, averaging 18.5 ppg on 64 percent shooting in the Bucks two games vs. the Nets. Will it last?

The Mavs' Nick Van Exel may be Mr. Clutch. But in the playoffs his 14 ppg on 36 percent shooting isn't up to his 15.9 ppg and 41 percent regular season stats.

The Blazers' Damon Stoudamire averages 14.6 ppg and 6.8 apg on 41.2 percent shooting during the regular season. During the postseason, Stoudamire slips to 10.7 ppg and 4.9 apg on 39 percent shooting. Last spring was his worst slip ever. Stoudamire averaged 33 mpg but could only muster 5 ppg and 3.3 apg on 22.7 percent shooting. No wonder the Blazers were three and done once again.

Good thing the Wizards aren't in the playoffs. Jerry Stackhouse is a glass house in the playoffs. His 16.7 ppg on 35 percent shooting average is well below his 21.3 ppg on 41 percent shooting average in the regular season.

McGrady's dunks do the least damage

By Terry Brown

NBA Insider

If I were the Detroit Pistons and playing the Orlando Magic today in Game 2 of their first-round playoff series, I would make Tracy McGrady count to 40 by 2s.

"You are not going to stop him from scoring," Chauncey Billups said in the Detroit News. "You can fool yourself and say whatever you want, but you are not going to stop that man from scoring. We just have to try and minimize it a little bit and do a better job on their other guys."

McGrady

It's really rather simple.

In the first game of the series, McGrady scored 43 points and the Magic won by five points.

On Dec. 25 against the Pistons, he scored 46 points and the Magic won by five.

But on Feb. 13, McGrady scored 35 points and the Pistons won by 10.

On Jan. 13, he scored 20 and the Pistons won by 15.

In the 12 games in which McGrady went over the 40-point plateau this season, the Magic were 10-2.

When he didn't score 40 points, the Magic were 32-38.

If McGrady scores 40, the Magic usually win. If McGrady doesn't score 40, the Magic usually lose.

The Pistons seem to think that the easiest way to stop McGrady from scoring this 40 points is to clog up the middle, hit him once he enters the paint, hit him again when he takes the shot and hit him once more when he comes down.

"They hit us first, and that's not typical of what's gone on here the past couple of years," said Detroit guard Chucky Atkins in Florida Today on the first game of the series. "It's not just Tracy that has to hit the floor. A lot of those guys over there have to hit the floor."

The problem, though, is that when the Pistons tried to do that before, McGrady shot a career-high 21 free throws against them, making a career-high 18 and scoring 46 in the Christmas Day win.

On average, he goes to the line fewer than 10 times a game and makes almost eight of them.

That would only make it easier for him to reach 40.

"Whatever they want to do is not going to bother me," said McGrady. "I'm still going to play my same game. If they want to be physical, let them be physical. I know how to do the same thing. I know how to prevent myself from getting caught up in whatever they're trying to do to me."

Wanna know how?

Perhaps the best-kept secret in the NBA is the fact that McGrady is gradually becoming one of the most prolific three-point shooters in the game today.

In 2001, McGrady averaged 26.8 points per game and shot 35 percent from three-point range. Triples made up 9 percent of his shot attempts.

In 2002, he averaged 25.6 points per game and shot 36 percent from three-point range. Triples made up 17 percent of his shot attempts.

In 2003, he averaged a league-leading 32.1 points per game and shot 38 percent from three-point range. Triples made up 24.7 percent of his shot attempts.

For every four shots that McGrady took this season, one of the them was from long range.

For comparison, Kobe Bryant, the league's second-leading scorer at 30 per game, took a three-point shot every six attempts.

Allen Iverson, who has led the league in scoring three times, took a three-point shot every 6.6 attempts.

Vintage Michael Jordan, when he averaged 30 or more points per game from 1987 thru 1993, took a three-point shot every 15.6 attempts.

Paul Pierce, who scored more points than any other player last season, took a three-point shot every every four attempts like McGrady, but there was one major difference. When the Celtics won, Pierce averaged 1.5 made triples. When the Celtics lost, Pierce averaged 1.4 made triples.

But when the Magic won this season, McGrady averaged 2.6 made triples on 42 percent shooting from long range. When the Magic lost, he averaged only 1.9 made triples on 33 percent shooting from long range.

When McGrady scored 40 points this season, as mentioned earlier, the Magic usually won. And when the Magic won, McGrady usually made a lot of three-pointers.

In fact, in those 12 40-point games, McGrady averaged 7.8 three-point attempts and made 3.7 of them for a whopping 47 percent.

Here, let me make it as clear as possible.

DON'T LET TRACY MCGRADY SHOOT THREE-POINTERS.

Let him dunk. Let him make SportsCenter. Let him autograph the poster with your favorite Piston defender in the background with bitter beer face.

"The biggest disappointment to me," Curry said in Detroit News after the first loss, "was that in the big scouting report book that we have, it says McGrady averages three assists a game. When a guy gets that many touches in a game and he's averaging just three assists, that means when he puts the ball down, nine times out of 10 he's looking to shoot it."

This doesn't mean clearing a path to the basket with palm leaves and rose petals, but it certainly entails getting up in his grill on the perimeter and conceding his first step. Rotate. Double. Do whatever it takes to chase him off the three-point line and recover as best you can. As only the best defensive team in the NBA can. Turn him into a plain vanilla mid-range jump shooter if you have to.

Remember, this kid digs the spotlight. He ditched Toronto because he was the one person at the time who actually thought he was the best player in North America at a time when he was the second-best swingman on his team. He turned the All-Star Game into a nationally televised H-O-R-S-E contest by going glass to rim to prove that very point a year later.

McGrady wants to make a statement with three-pointers and dunks.

If it comes right down to it, let him have the latter rather than the former. He'll take the bait.

"If they double-team and my guys are making shots, then we still have a chance to win the game," McGrady said in the Detroit Free Press. "If they double-team and my guys are not making plays or making shots, then it's going to be a long night for us. But whatever they do, it won't be new to me and it won't be new to my team. It's not going to work whatever they're going to do."

Do the math.

If he dunks every shot he takes, that's still 20 attempts to reach 40. Even if he shoots a crisp 50 percent on the day, he shot 45.7 percent this season and 45.3 over his career, that's 40 attempts. In a 48-minute game, that's a shot every 72 seconds.

But if he gets his 40 exclusively by shooting triples, and he makes every one, that's less than 14 to get that 40 points plus.

And when the game gets squeezed down to seconds and single possessions, I'd much rather have a tired McGrady to guard who's shot the ball 40 times already rather than one who's shot less than 20 times because he's been drilling three-pointers and free throws all day.

Simply smile, say cheese, and think second round when the flashbulbs start popping under the basket.

Pistons ready to stop McGrady

Chris McCosky / Detroit News

Pistons must make McGrady work for points

Terry Foster / Detroit News

Pistons put McGrady on notice

John Denton / Florida Today

Pistons: Let's get physical

Chris McCosky / Detroit News

Magic plans to keep up attack on Pistons

Helene St. James / Detroit Free Press

Lakers unfazed by Game 2 drubbing

By Terry Brown

NBA Insider

"No need to panic yet," writes the LA Times J.A. Adande after the Minnesota Timberwolves defeated the three-time defending champs, 119-91, to even their first round series at 1-1.

"And maybe that's the problem for the Lakers. They need to see the train coming before they bother to do anything about the damsel tied to the tracks."

Okay ... here's the smoke plume.

On November 5, the Lakers lost to the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers 89-70. They then lost three in a row immediately following that game.

On November 19, they lost to the Dallas Mavericks 98-72 and then lost three of their next five games.

On December 13, they lost to the New Orleans Hornets at home, 98-82, and then proceeded to lose three of their next four games.

These weren't just loses, mind you. These were double-digit blowouts that carried over.

Last year, the Lakers lost three in a row only once all season. The year before that, it never happened. And the year before that, the Lakers lost back to back games only three times.

This year, they have lost three in a row twice and four in a row once.

The Lakers are refusing to panic.

No, the Timberwolves aren't going to shoot 63 percent from the field for the first three quarters of tomorrow's game, as Adande points out. Troy Hudson isn't going to outscore Kobe Bryant on a nightly basis and Shaq isn't going to travel cross country before and after every playoff game.

But, then again, we didn't think the Lakers were going to be without Shaquille O'Neal for the entire season, either, and believed that when he returned from foot surgery everything would be fine.

But on January 22, long after the Lakers had been declared back to their old selves, they lost to the Golden State Warriors. In their very next game, they lost to the New Jersey Nets.

They didn't lose again until February 14, but directly after falling to the San Antonio Spurs, they lost to the New York Knicks.

And on March 12, after losing to the Chicago Bulls the day before, the Lakers lost to the Detroit Pistons.

"I don't think we're supposed to sweep every series," Jackson said in the LA Times.

"None of it will really matter come Thursday," said veteran Rick Fox. "It's home-court advantage. We go home and play two games."

"Nah," Robert Horry was quoted in the Minnesota Star Tribune after being asked if he felt threatened by the Timberwolves. "You'll see on Thursday."

So the Lakers lose a playoff game by 28 points in a season in which they were, at one point, 11-19 and you still can't see the worry on their faces?

Remember, this is the postseason. Lose three of their next five and they get eliminated. Lose three of their four and everyone outside of Hollywood forgets about the last three titles. Lose even one more in one more day and thoughts of a fourth title could go up in smoke.

Let's remember, too, that Shaquille O'Neal hasn't won an MVP award in three seasons now. Kobe Bryant didn't win it this year when Shaq's surgery made it a definite possibility. Horry is older. Derek Fisher is slower. How many times can Fox remind us that he's still married to Vanessa Williams? And when, exactly, was the last time the Lakers started the playoffs in their purple jerseys?

"It's always disappointing to lose," said Bryant in the St. Paul Pioneer Press. "But I can't wait to get home and play Game 3 in front of our fans."

No Time to Panic, but Maybe That's the Big Problem

J.A. Adande / Los Angeles Times

Blown-out Lakers happy to be headed home

Michael Rand / Minneapolis Star Tribune

Mighty Lakers falter

Greg Johnson / St. Paul Pioneer Press

Peep Show

Los Angeles Lakers: Will Kobe Bryant opt out of his contract in 2004? An L.A. Daily News piece on Monday said yes. An L.A. Times story on Tuesday said no. Now, on Wednesday, Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak tried to clear up the mess. "What's been passed on to me is there's been no decision at this point to opt out, and that it's something he'll address at a later date," Kupchak told the LA Daily News. But Bryant's camp also gave no assurance Bryant would fulfill the final year of his deal, in 2004-05. "Nobody came up to me and said, 'We're not going to opt out,' " Kupchak said. "That option continues to be there." Now that that's cleared up . . .

New Jersey Nets: David Stern isn't so concerned about the state of the Nets as he is about the state they're in. "My understanding is that there is going to be a new situation for this team one way or the other in the next several years and hopefully, it will be an arena in Newark," Stern said to the NY Times. "It strikes me that this franchise has a number of decisions that it has to make and they have to make it at the close of the season and during the course of the summer. I'm not concerned in the short term because I think we're in a situation where this arena is fine in the intermediate term, but not a long-term solution.There is a lot of interest in N.B.A. franchises. These current times, economic downturn or not, are no exception. I would like to focus on the New Jersey Nets staying with the name and the location in the state of New Jersey."

Camby

Denver Nuggets: Marcus Camby loves the Nuggets. Marcus Camby loves them not. "I think, when he first came, he was skeptical," Denver GM Kiki Vandeweghe said in the Denver Post. "As time went on, he became much more positive. I said all along, 'When he gets on the court, his whole demeanor will change,' and it did. By the end of the year, he could kind of see the vision. He's excited, he wants to be involved. I've never had any doubt about him as a player. If you can keep him on the floor, he's awfully talented." Camby, who has been mentioned is almost as many trade scenerios as injury reports, enters the option year of his contract next season.

New York Knicks: This is what the New York Knicks said about Antonio McDyess' surgery on his left knee yesterday. "There were no surprises during the surgery. We are very optimistic that Antonio will have a full recovery and be able to play again next season." This is what New York Post columnist Marc Berman thinks they meant: "Medical experts say full healing from a bone-graft procedure takes from three months to six months, depending on the patient. This patient -- the Knicks' franchise player -- was not fully healed six months after his Oct. 16 surgery to repair the cracked patella bone. It's still very much in doubt whether McDyess will be ready for training camp or ever play a full season again."

Parker

San Antonio Spurs: Tony Parker has fallen. San Antonio head coach Greg Popovich is wondering when he's going to get back up. "So far it hasn't gone his way and he hasn't played well," Pop said to the San Antonio Express-News. "It's a matter of just mentally not getting too down on himself, us having faith in him and him not worrying about what's happened to date, but what's ahead of him. It's kind of like a hitter who's in a slump. You just have to come back at it, pick the bat up and keep swinging." His biggest teammate agreed. "Tony's fine," Tim Duncan said. "He hasn't played well against these guys. That's no secret. Is there anything we can do to get him going? Not really. He's going to find his own way. He's going to fight through it. He's smart. He's going to figure out a way to hurt them. He's going to stick with it. And we're going to stick with him."

New Orleans Hornets: Tomorrow is today and Baron Davis has a decision to make about his game against the Sixers tonight. "I am feeling better," he said of his left knee to the New Orleans Times-Picayune. "Each day of rest, it's going to get better. Tomorrow, it will probably feel better than it does today. It's out of my hands to determine whether I'm going to play. It's in the doctor's hands." Head coach Paul Silas agreed. Kind of. "We kind of leave it all up to Baron and the doctor," he said. "Right now, the thing is still swollen. He needs another day's rest and he'll be evaluated. I'm not going to make that call. Ideally, if he could play at somewhat full strength, we'd be a better club. But if he's going to re-injure the thing because we didn't give it enough time to rest, I don't want that either. We'll make do until Saturday and have him ready on Saturday."

Utah Jazz: Two days after being blown out by the Sacramento Kings, Karl Malone still isn't talking. "I'm not a guy who's going to make a speech," he said to the Salt Lake Tribune. "Every time one needs to be made, something needs to be said, it always seems to be Karl who has to say it. There's other guys on the team as well." But ousted swingman DeShawn Stevenson is. "He said he'd like to talk to me, and I said OK," head coach Jerry Sloan said of the player he sent home early from Sacramento after suspending him from Game 2 because of an argument over his playing time. "We'll sit down and see where DeShawn is coming from."

Lakers: O'Neal has his laugh

Howard Beck / Los Angels Daily News

Stern Backs New Arena for Nets

Steve Popper / New York Times

Camby likes Kiki's vision

Jim Armstrong / Denver Post

Knicks Upbeat After McDyess Knee Surgery

Marc Berman / New York Post

Parker struggling against Suns' Marbury

Johnny Ludden / San Antonio Express-News

Injured Davis is feeling better

Jimmy Smith / New Orleans Times-Picayune

Stevenson to Meet Sloan About Suspension

Phil Miller / Salt Lake Tribune