Insider (Ford): West Playoff Preview

[Weez]

Are the Spurs cooked without Duncan?By Chad Ford, ESPN Insider

Chad Ford Archive

Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

And the meek have inherited the West.

Last year, the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves ruled the West. This year, they're scratching lottery tickets.

Last year, the Phoenix Suns and Seattle SuperSonics had the second- and third-worst records in the West respectively. This year, according to our projections, the Suns will likely finish with the best record in the West and the Sonics will finish with the third-best record in the conference.

And how about the lowly Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies? Both teams were left for dead in December, but two new veteran coaches have turned these two disappointments into the teams no one wants to play in the first round of the playoffs.

Who will make the playoffs? Who will be playing the lottery?

On Monday, we broke down the Eastern Conference playoff race.

Today, Insider takes a look at the schedules and recent trends and, based on the evidence, projects how things will fall out in the West.

Here's how we break it down:

WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF WATCH

1. Phoenix Suns

Current record: 49-16

Projected record: 62-20

Skinny: The Suns are sprinting to the finish line in an effort to grab the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. With Tim Duncan out for at least the next two weeks, they should be able to grab it. The team has a fairly soft road schedule coming up, and Phoenix has been strong at home. Finishing with 62 victories isn't as impressive as the 70 triumphs some projected, but it should be enough to give the Suns the best record in the NBA this season. Come playoff time, will their high octane offense be enough to propel them to a title? While many claim that the Suns don't play enough defense to win a title, their unpredictable offense is extremely difficult to prepare for, taking away an advantage most teams have in a seven-game series. Usually, good teams will take away the two things you do best in a long series. With the Suns' not running set plays and winging it on the offensive end, constantly adapting to what the defense is giving them, they'll be tough to nail down. Meanwhile, the Suns' defense has been improving of late. We still like the Spurs to win it all (as long as Duncan is 100 percent healthy), but expect the Suns to push them into a seven-game series in the Western Conference Finals.

2. San Antonio Spurs

Current record: 50-17

Projected record: 58-24

Skinny: The Spurs have been the most efficient team in the NBA this season, playing great defense and running a well-oiled machine on the offensive end. But with Duncan out two to four weeks (bet on the latter) with a serious ankle sprain, the Spurs aren't going to be their usual dominant selves. That was evident Sunday and Monday against the Pistons and Knicks, and the trend will likely continue with tough home games against the Rockets and Sonics and difficult road games against the Nuggets, Mavericks, Grizzlies and Pacers. If Duncan is 100 percent healthy come playoff time, the rest might actually have enhanced the Spurs' chances. However, if the injury is more serious than the Spurs are letting on (it sure looked serious in the replays), the Spurs can kiss their title chances goodbye. They're going to need Duncan at 100 percent to beat Phoenix.

3. Seattle SuperSonics

Current record: 45-20

Projected record: 56-26

Skinny: After a red-hot start, the Sonics are slowly starting to fade a bit in the West. Injuries are Seattle's biggest problem right now. Vladimir Radmanovic is likely out for the rest of the season with a broken leg. Radmanovic actually injured the leg just after the All-Star break, which might explain why he has struggled the last few weeks. Radmanovic was the leading contender for the NBA's sixth man honors. His absence is a major loss. He's not expected back for four to six weeks, which means he could miss the first round of the playoffs. Meanwhile, All-Star shooting guard Ray Allen and Danny Fortson are out with injured ankles, valuable guard Antonio Daniels has a torn meniscus in his left knee and All-Star forward Rashard Lewis is battling tendinitis. "We're banged up, but you've got to play," head coach Nate McMillan said. "Most teams, most players this time of the year, [have] got something that's sore on them." The good news for the Sonics is that in Allen's absence, Ronald Murray has re-emerged as the dynamic scoring threat we saw last season. Murray dropped in 25 points Sunday and likely will be in the starting lineup until Allen returns. "He's deferring to Ray when Ray is in the lineup, and when Ray is out of the lineup, like [sunday] night, he knows that he has to provide some scoring," McMillan said.

4. Dallas Mavericks

Current record: 44-22

Projected record: 55-27

Skinny: Everyone knows by now that Mark Cuban and Don Nelson didn't always see eye to eye. Their latest ongoing beef had been about defense. Cuban thought the Mavs should be playing more of it, and Nelson agreed this summer to give it his best shot. But clearly, it's assistant Avery Johnson who lives and breathes defense. Nelson used to pull players out of games when they made a mistake on the offensive end. Johnson, who credits Gregg Popovich as his coaching inspiration, pulls them when they miss a defensive rotation or fail to keep opponents in front of them – which is why the first guy he benched after getting the job was Dirk Nowitzki, even if it was for just 33 seconds. "I didn't do my job defensively," Nowitzki said. "I let the guy get the ball too close in, and he scored. It was a message he [Johnson] was sending to me and everybody. We have to believe in Avery and in the system. He wants to treat everybody the same, which we know is not really possible. But he made a nice little stand for me and the team." Johnson also apparently knows how to play Erick Dampier. Dampier's best stretch of the season came with Johnson as the head coach. Put those two together and we can expect to see a different Mavs team in the playoffs – one that cares just as much about defense as it does about jump shots. That could make the Mavs very dangerous come playoff time.

5. Houston Rockets

Current record: 39-27

Projected record: 51-31

Skinny: The Rockets have run hot and cold all season. Expect them to get hot again as the season winds down. The team has one of the softest schedules left of any team in the West. It couldn't come at a better time for the Rockets. After Houston started off the season poorly, coach Jeff Van Gundy found a way to light a fire under his team during the middle of the season. But lately the effort has been lacking again. Expect him to fix that by the playoffs. When Van Gundy does fix things, the Rockets should roll into the fifth seed in the West and be a dangerous threat come playoff time. The Rockets have done a nice job of adding depth during the season, bringing in David Wesley, Jon Barry and Mike James to bolster a weak backcourt. If they can get Juwan Howard back in time for the playoffs, they could make some noise.

6. Sacramento Kings

Current record: 41-27

Projected record: 50-32

Skinny: Media pundits ridiculed Kings GM Geoff Petrie when he traded Chris Webber for Kenny Thomas, Corliss Williamson and Brian Skinner. Who's laughing now? With Brad Miller out the rest of the regular season with a broken leg, it has been Thomas and Skinner, along with Darius Songaila, who've made a major impact. The newcomers have kept the Kings afloat. Meanwhile, back east, Webber is running Philly into the ground. Think Petrie knew something we didn't? If Miller gets healthy and Peja Stojakovic can find his shot, the Kings should have the juice to knock the Sonics out of the first round.

7. Memphis Grizzlies

Current record: 38-28

Projected record: 48-34

Skinny: When Hubie Brown resigned on Thanksgiving, it was the Grizzlies who looked like an overdone turkey. But thanks to Mike Fratello, the team is actually back in contention in the West. Had Pau Gasol not missed two months with a foot injury, the team probably would have been a fifth seed in the West – pretty amazing given its 5-11 start to the season and the rash of injuries Memphis has suffered. Now that Gasol is healthy, the goal is to get Stromile Swift back on the court. Swift has been out a month with an ankle injury. Doctors cleared him to play two weeks ago, but Swift is refusing, claiming he has no lift. Swift is a free agent this summer, and some in Memphis are quietly questioning whether he's protecting himself. If Swift doesn't come back, the Grizzlies will still be solid, but if he does return, the Grizz will be very dangerous at full strength for the first time this season. But even at full strength, will the Grizzlies fare any better this year against the Spurs, their likely opponents in the first round? The Spurs blew them out in four straight games last season. But if Duncan isn't at 100 percent, it could be the Grizzlies exacting revenge this year.

8. Denver Nuggets

Current record: 35-30

Projected record: 47-35

Skinny: The Nuggets are the hottest team in the West right now, winners of 11 of their last 12. Credit head coach George Karl, who has gone 18-5 in Denver . Great coaching can make a difference. The Nuggets looked hopelessly lost before Karl arrived. Since he came on board, they've been as good as any team in the West, and they keep getting better. Their defense and offense have improved under Karl. Now they're getting healthy. Nene returned to the team Sunday, and Karl is cautiously optimistic that sharp shooter Voshon Lenard, who tore his ACL on opening night, could be back sometime in April. If that happens, the Nuggets will be able to put a scare into anyone in the West. Anyone.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves

Current record: 34-34

Projected record: 43-39

Skinny: While George Karl is proving in Denver that great coaching still makes a difference in the NBA, Wolves GM – and new coach – Kevin McHale has learned that coaching alone can't help a fatally flawed team. The Wolves' decision to let Flip Saunders go was a joke. Saunders wasn't the problem in Minnesota, and McHale isn't the solution. In fact, McHale is probably the Wolves' biggest problem. Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell are too old and too volatile (which makes you wonder why he was offering both players extensions last summer), and the Wolves just don't have much of anything in the middle. Kevin Garnett continues to be awesome, but he's back to carrying the team by himself every night. Expect more changes in Minnesota this summer, starting at the top.

10. Los Angeles Lakers

Current record: 32-34

Projected record: 40-42

Skinny: Lakers fans went crazy last fall when Insider predicted the Lakers would narrowly miss the playoffs this season. Turns out that we oversold the Lakers. Given their projected record, they might miss the playoffs by seven games. Kobe Bryant proved that he can't do it by himself while Shaquille O'Neal proved that he's totally willing to share the spotlight with a high scoring guard – as long as that guard is someone who's team oriented. With Rudy Tomjanovich out and the Lakers treading water, look for big changes in L.A. this summer. Now that Bryant's signed to a long-term deal, owner Jerry Buss no longer has to tiptoe around Kobe's feelings. The Lakers need a new GM, a new coach, a real point guard and some tough love for Bryant. They have the building blocks for success with Bryant, Lamar Odom and Caron Butler. Put in the right leadership at the top, a high profile coach such as Phil Jackson or Pat Riley, a great draft pick and a key free-agent signing, and the Lakers could get back to winning 50 to 55 games next season. Stay with the status quo, and they'll be mediocre for a long time.

Chad Ford covers the NBA draft for ESPN Insider.