Insider (Hollinger): 3pt shooters

[Weez]

Six gunners among summer's free agentsBy John Hollinger

ESPN Insider

Archive

Naming the game's best 3-point shooter isn't as easy as that little contest at All-Star Weekend would have us believe.

Take last season's Phoenix Suns, for instance. Joe Johnson shot 48 percent on 3-pointers last year, which would seem to make him one of the game's best. On the other hand, he didn't shoot that many on a per-minute basis (just two made 3s per 40 minutes). Was he really a better 3-point shooter than his teammate Quentin Richardson (the 3-point champ), who made a much larger number of attempts but shot a lower percentage? And is either that great, when one considers that neither had done much the year before?

To resolve these questions, I developed my "Top Gun" ranking of the game's 10 deadliest 3-point shooters. I wanted to find out which players had done the most to increase their team's scoring. And I wanted to find out at what rate their 3-point shooting helped the team, so I measured every player's output per 40 minutes of playing time.

For each player, I determined the number of points a team gained from a player's 3-point shooting expertise. To do this, I figured out the the difference between the player's shooting accuracy and what a mediocre (or "replacement level") player would shoot. I computed the "replacement level" figure by taking 90 percent of the league average in 3-point shooting, ending up with 32.0 percent in 2004-05.

Then I took the difference between the player's percentage and "replacement level" and multiplied it by the player's 3-point attempts. That resulted in the number of points the player added to (or subtracted from) his team's total with his 3-point shooting, compared to the "replacement level." Finally, I divided that result by the player's minutes and multiplied by 40. That produced a per-40-minute rating for the value of each player's 3-point shooting. (For instance, as shown in the chart below, the 3-point shooting of Damon Jones added .90 points per 40 minutes he played to the Miami Heat's scoring in 2004-05.)

However, the examples of Johnson and Richardson show that 3-point percentages aren't as consistent from year to year as some other numbers. Thus, I looked at two seasons' worth of data. I weighed the 2004-05 season twice as heavily as the 2003-04 season, although in the case of rookies I could use only the 2004-05 data. Once that was done, I had a final score for each player.

Before I introduce the top 10, let's discuss a few surprising names who didn't make the list. Reggie Miller, for instance, had a horrendous 3-point year last season, making only 32.2 percent. Steve Nash is a great shooter (41.8 percent career) but hasn't shot the long ball with nearly the frequency of many other top shooters, so he didn't qualify either. And Johnson, despite his 47 percent mark a year ago, didn't come close. His low frequency of '04-05 attempts and his inaccuracy in '03-04 combined to keep him well behind the leaders.

With that said, let's take a look at the top 10:

10. Mike Miller, Memphis Grizzlies

Miller has one of the most gorgeous strokes in basketball, but until last season he hadn't found the net particularly often. Miller made 43.3 percent in 2004-05, however, to rank fourth in the NBA. That helped make up for an unspectacular showing the previous year, when he barely made one 3-pointer a game while hitting at a 37 percent clip.

9. Eric Piatkowski, Houston Rockets/Chicago Bulls

A lot of the players on this list aren't stars in the traditional sense, because they're guys who are in the league only because of their shooting. The Polish Rifle is a good example, hitting 42.5 percent from downtown last year but still rarely playing because his other weaknesses were so pronounced.

8. Ben Gordon, Chicago Bulls

The only rookie to make the list, Gordon was nearly as accurate on 3s (40.5 percent) as he was on 2s (41.4). Some might argue that Gordon should have been excluded from the study because he didn't have a two-year sample like the others, but based on his shooting exploits in college, his season hardly seems surprising. Incidentally, Gordon's inclusion bumped Jim Jackson out of the top 10.

7. Cuttino Mobley, Houston Rockets/Orlando Magic/Sacramento Kings (signed with Los Angeles Clippers)

Only two players finished in the top 10 in both 3-pointers per game and 3-point percentage last season. One was Damon Jones, and the other was Mobley. Mobley's 43.9 percent shooting ranked third in the NBA, while his 2.3 bombs per game rated 10th. He wasn't quite as strong in 2003-04, hitting 39.3 percent, but his long-range shooting ability will be a big boost to a Clippers team that was last in the NBA in 3-pointers.

6. Peja Stojakovic, Sacramento Kings

Peja shot the lights out in 2003-04, hitting 43.3 percent while raining in three a game, but couldn't keep up the pace in 2004-05. His numbers still were outstanding (40.2 percent, 2.6 triples per game), and he had the best 2003-04 of any player on this list. Last year's "slump" kept him out of the top five.

5. Wesley Person, Memphis Grizzlies/Portland Trail Blazers/Atlanta Hawks/Miami Heat/Denver Nuggets

Person is similar to Piatkowski -- a veteran, 6-foot-7 swingman bouncing around the league, but using his shooting to stay afloat. Person got especially hot when he went to Denver last season, hitting 48.5 percent, and that performance should earn him another contract for this season. His career 41.8 percent mark is the best of anyone's in the top 10.

4. Fred Hoiberg, Minnesota Timberwolves (now a free agent)

The Mayor led the NBA in 3-point shooting last season at 48.3 percent and was no slouch the year before (44.2 percent). If we were just looking at percentages, he'd be in the top spot, but because Hoiberg doesn't shoot the rock as often as the top three guys, he falls short. Hopefully we'll get to see his sweet stroke again -- his career is in question after offseason heart surgery.

3. Damon Jones, Milwaukee Bucks/Miami Heat (now a free agent)

Jones exploded onto the scene last season by leading the NBA in 3-pointers -- of course, that might have something to do with the fact that he played alongside Shaquille O'Neal, after signing with the Heat in the offseason. But Jones also earned plenty of those 3s on his own, shooting off the dribble in transition or coming off a high screen. He became the first player since Larry Bird to lead the league in 3-pointers while finishing in the top five in percentage (43.2 percent).

2. Donyell Marshall, Chicago Bulls/Toronto Raptors (signed with Cleveland Cavaliers)

Surprise, surprise. Though nominally a 6-9 power forward, Marshall has become an assassin from the corners. He hit 41.6 percent on 3s last season and set an NBA record with 12 bombs in a game. Believe it or not, Marshall had the best rate of made 3-pointers in the NBA last year, making 2.3 per game in just over 25 minutes of action. His offseason move to the shooting-starved Cavaliers should be a perfect match.

1. Kyle Korver, Philadelphia 76ers

He doesn't rank No.1 in either percentage or frequency, but over the two seasons Korver has been the most consistent (39.1 and 40.5 percent) while hitting at a prolific rate (one every 11.4 minutes in his two seasons). Overall, he ranked fifth in 2003-04 and sixth last season, which doesn't seem like it should add up to No. 1. But most 3-point shooters see their percentages go up and down like yo-yos, which is why several of the top players from 2003-04 (Brent Barry, Anthony Peeler, Rasual Butler) and 2004-05 (Joe Johnson, Eddie House) don't cut the mustard when we combine the two seasons.

Plus, Korver should continue to be among the most deadly shooters for some time. The results are based on his first two seasons in the league, but most players need a year or two of adjustment to get used to the NBA's longer 3-point line. If this is how Korver's "adjustment period" panned out, I can only imagine how many nets he'll be ripping in future seasons.

"TOP GUN" RATINGS (Points added per 40 min.)

Player 2003-04 2004-05 Overall

Kyle Korver .61 .71 .679

Donyell Marshall .34 .85 .678

Damon Jones .18 .90 .66

Fred Hoiberg .44 .74 .64

Wesley Person .39 .75 .63

Peja Stojakovic .73 .56 .62

Cuttino Mobley .34 .68 .57

Ben Gordon N/A .56 .56

Eric Piatkowski .18 .67 .51

Mike Miller .22 .64 .50

John Hollinger, author of "Pro Basketball Forecast 2005-06," writes for ESPN Insider.