bleachkit

At least we got the NFL draft. I love doing mock drafts. Tomorrow is going to be awesome. Real sports content.

Big man, bad foot. That's never good. Houston played us like a fiddle.

Speedy Claxton part 2

You think this study will be an outlier? Ok, go ahead and think that. This is just one of many antibody studies that are on the way. The one they are doing in New York will be the most extensive yet.

It's a very fluid situation. MLB and MLS have openly talked about June. Nothing definitive. But I think once one league starts that might open up the flood gates, assuming testing and other measures are available.

I have been arguing over fatality rates. That has been my theme. I don't know when the NBA will start back up, but I think that it will. Mark Cuban himself said May, but that seems to aggressive right now. I said May if widespread testing was available, and it's not.

I'd prefer to characterize it as a cool, understated confidence.

Oh no, I made no bets on when the NBA comes back. A lot of factors there, and Covid-19 data is not necessarily chief among them. Optics, public policies, logistical, legal and otherwise. I am confident a season will resume, but when or in what capacity I have no clue. But I do think the NBA is trying to prepare for multiple scenarios behind the scenes.

I never lose bets Spud, you should know that.

Trillions of dollars (stimulus, small business, payment protection, etc) being quickly dolled out with limited oversight, this is so ripe for massive fraud and corruption.

We have had an ongoing debate about this. Nearly everyone has told me I'm wrong. The chances of these California studies being anomalous is very slim. Sort of like early returns on election night, it often portends the final result. But ok, let's wait for additional studies. Several more are coming soon.

Immunity that is conferred is probably partial for most, but maybe none for some. It's a complicated multi factorial question, with quite a bit of variation. Not to beat a dead horse, but as I correctly predicted, antibody testing is going to dramatically reduce Covid-19's true fatality rate by increasing the numerator in the equation 50x or so.

California locked down early. One of the earliest in the country. Atlanta will probably be higher than Los Angeles honestly.

I think it's going to come as a surprise to many to find out 5 to 10% of the population had Covid-19. Probably some of us on this board had it, hopefully we'll all take an antibody test soon.

@macdaddy @AHF @thecampster https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-antibody-testing-shows-la-county-outbreak-is-up-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html Is anyone still going to say I'm wrong?

Immunity is a still an unanswered question. There hasn't been a lot of antibody testing yet, it's finally ramping up now.

The Abbot antibody test has very high specificity, close to 100%. Tests from China were largely junk, many states and municipalities are having to scrap then. UK wasted millions on bogus Chinese tests. New York is using quality tests.

Well New York is beginning extensive antibody testing this week, testing thousands per day. It's going to be an eye opener.

Thank you. Geez.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective

Ok man. Be ready for some compelling antibody data, it's coming.

Trae cant jump either. And if the Hawks had taken Luka, half the board would have Luka avatars. Arguing basketball is more fun.

My angle isn't political. Are you a conservative? Most conservatives don't trust CNN. Like liberals don't trust Fox news, etc. I personally am non-partisan. My final link will be from the CDC or NIH. Right or wrong, they have the last word on this.

My sources are all above board. I cited a Stanford University study, published in Nature. One of the premier Universities, and the premier scientific journal.

Dude, first of all. I never said EVERYONE has/had it. I said a sizeable percentage of the population has/had it. I dont know the exact number. But it is far, far greater than the number of confirmed cases. To support your case, you are a using nursing home from a month ago. The articles I cited are not propaganda. They are not from some bogus right wing conspiracy type website. Nature is the most widely read and respected scientific journal. It is using a serological study of thousands of people, conducted by Stanford University. Bottom line is, the fatality rate I am claiming, (0.2 to 0.3%) versus the fatality rate you are claiming (5%), are an ocean apart. So I will let the facts play out. But please do not dismiss findings as I post them as "propaganga". I will only report links from governmental agencies, like the CDC or NIH, or an established universities (Stanford, Johns Hopkins, etc).