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2003 NBA Free Agent Watch

by Chad Ford

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Also Below: Race for Arenas heats up | Is George Karl eyeing the Tar Heel job? | Peep Show

With seven teams now mathematically eliminated from the playoff race and the NBA draft debate already in full swing, it's probably time to take a step back for a second and survey the free-agent landscape. As great as draft picks are, few of them make a major impact these days. Jay Williams, Mike Dunleavy and Nikoloz Tskitishvili (the second, third and fifth picks in last year's draft) are role players, at best.

With teams like Chicago, Miami and Toronto losing their patience with the whole rebuilding thing, free agency, not the draft, is where they'll have to look to find impact players. The last thing the Bulls need is another lottery stud who thinks he's the center of the universe. There's been a lot of talk for the past year about the golden free-agent class of 2003. Tim Duncan, Jason Kidd, Jermaine O'Neal, Gary Payton ...

The names might be A-list, but the teams with enough cap room to actually lure them away are all small-time gigs. San Antonio, Utah, Denver and the Clippers have cash to burn. But would Kidd leave the bright lights of New York for the sleepy confines of the Alamo? Would O'Neal bolt the up-and-coming Pacers for the down-and-out Nuggets? And once the Spurs, Jazz and Nuggets get done spending (we're leaving the Clippers out of this right now) is everyone else going to have to settle for a mid-level exception?

Exclusive complete 2003 free agent list

Key = ® - restricted free agent | (PO) - player option

1. Tim Duncan, PF, Spurs (PO)

Outlook: All signs still point to Duncan staying in San Antonio next season. In fact, he may not even opt out of his deal. Given that the cap has actually dropped since he signed his last deal, Duncan would actually lose money if opted and out and went for a new deal in San Antonio.

2. Jason Kidd, PG, Nets (PO)

Outlook: Kidd is still determined to play the free-agent market. Sources close to Kidd have indicated that he'd like to finish his career on the West Coast with a contender. The only team he's interested in with enough cash to sign him straight up is the Spurs. The Clippers would probably fit in that category too, but unless Duncan agrees to come along for the ride and Donald Sterling gets a lobotomy, you know that isn't happening. A return to the Bay Area also isn't out of the question. The Warriors have enough young assets to work out a sign-and-trade if that's where Kidd wanted to land.

3. Jermaine O'Neal, PF, Pacers

Outlook: O'Neal was considered a lock to re-sign with Indiana until a late-season swoon put that into question. The Spurs, Jazz and Nuggets would all love to have him. However, Pacers sources continue to insist that O'Neal has not wavered in his commitment to re-sign with the organization. Why would he leave the comfortable East Coast (where he's clearly the best power forward in the conference and a perennial all-star) for the harsh and cruel Western Conference? Playing against Kevin Garnett, Chris Webber, Dirk Nowitzki, Karl Malone and Pau Gasol every night isn't a piece of cake.

4. Elton Brand, PF, Clippers ®

Outlook: Everyone has interest, but so do the Clippers. Brand doesn't want to re-sign with L.A. unless Sterling also forks over some cash for Michael Olowokandi and Lamar Odom. Expect the Jazz and Spurs to flirt with him, but in the end, he'll probably take the Clips' one-year tender and hit unrestricted free agency next summer.

5. Gilbert Arenas, PG, Warriors ®

Outlook: He's the hottest free agent on the market. The Warriors desperately want to keep him, but the most they can offer him is $4.5 million next season. Expect teams like the Nuggets and Heat to offer him a contract starting at around $7 million a year. That may be just too much for Arenas, or anyone else, to pass up.

6. Michael Olowokandi, C, Clippers

Outlook: His stock has dropped considerably since last summer. Olowokandi held out for a max contract last summer, and right now it doesn't appear that the gamble has paid off. Injuries, a bad attitude and a terrible Clippers squad will haunt him as he tries to find another team willing to pony up the cash. The Heat, Spurs and Nuggets are all interested in Olowokandi, but at what price?

7. Andre Miller, PG, Clippers ®

Outlook: The Clips can't afford to pay everyone and most feel that Miller will be the casualty. Despite a terrible season, after Kidd and Arenas, he's the best point guard on the board. Expect the Jazz to make him a big offer. He wants to return to Utah and the Jazz would love to have him. He's a perfect fit in the Jazz's system and a great heir to John Stockton.

8. Corey Maggette, SG/SF, Clippers ®

Outlook: No one's stock has risen more this season than Maggette's. We've known for a while that he's one of the best athlete's in the league. But his development of a consistent long-range jumper has really opened up the game for him. Again, he's likely to be another casualty of the Clippers' salary-cap woes. The Nuggets look like they're the most interested in bringing him into the fold.

9. Juwan Howard, SF/PF, Nuggets

Outlook: Howard will likely go from being one of the most overpaid players in the history of the league to one of the best bargains. He's gained a huge amount of respect for the way he handled himself on the lowly Nuggets this year. The Nuggets want him back, but expect him to try to work out a sign-and-trade with a team in a better position to win now. The Pistons, Bulls, Sonics, Spurs, Heat and Magic all remain good possibilities.

10. Gary Payton, PG, Bucks

Outlook: The Bucks still maintain that they want Payton to re-sign this summer, but with the way they're playing, it may not be an easy sell. If the Bucks miss the playoffs, there's a chance George Karl will be gone, which of course means Payton will be out the door, too. However, it isn't like the Glove has a lot of other options. No one is going to spend a huge chunk of their cap on a 35-year-old point guard, no matter how good he is. If he decides to bolt Milwaukee, the best he can hope for is a mid-level exception contract with a team like the Pacers, T-Wolves, Warriors or Heat.

11. Karl Malone, PF, Jazz

Outlook: He turns 40 in July but the Mailman continues to deliver. It will be interesting to see what the Jazz and Malone do this summer. The team would like to start rebuilding, but it also wants to see him retire in Utah. Malone couldn't command a huge, long-term contract anywhere, but he can still help a playoff contender if he's willing to settle for the mid-level exception. But can Malone really leave Utah?

12. Lamar Odom, SF, Clippers ®

Outlook: If he's healthy and gets his head on straight, he's a top-five talent. Pat Riley loves him. But so does Elgin Baylor? Will the Heat give him some love? If they do, will the Clippers match? Odom's not in a bad situation either way.

13. Brad Miller, C, Pacers

Outlook: It's not a great year for big men in free agency or the draft. That could mean very big things for Miller despite a so-so year. Indiana wants to re-sign him, but don't be surprised if the Spurs come after Miller if Kidd and Olowokandi don't pan out.

14. Rasho Nesterovic, C, T-Wolves

Outlook: Next to Maggette, no one has helped his stock more this year than Nesterovic. He's been a solid force in the middle for the T-Wolves. This time, agent Bill Duffy's gamble, he turned down a six- year deal from the Wolves last summer, paid off big time. The Wolves want him, and they'll have to pay handsomely to keep him.

15. Jerry Stackhouse, SG, Wizards (PO)

Outlook: Stackhouse won't opt out of his contract unless he gets a guarantee of a big extension from the Wizards. Either way, he's in Washington next season.

16. Richard Hamilton, SG, Pistons ®

Outlook: He had a big year in Detroit, meaning that the Pistons are trapped in the same dilemma they faced with Stackhouse. They really want to re-sign him, but what is he worth? Hamilton can play the free-agent market all he wants, but with the free-agent talent pool so deep, there may not be any money left by the time Rip bubbles to the top. Look for the Pistons to get a real bargain on Rip.

17. Keon Clark, PF, Kings (PO)

Outlook: Slender star was on his best behavior this season in Sacramento. But will there be any money for him this summer? Clark may be better off sticking with the Kings next season and then trying things again in 2004 when the free-agent field isn't so crowded.

18. Jason Terry, SG, Hawks ®

Outlook: 6-foot-2 shooting guard anyone? Anyone?

19. P. J. Brown, PF, Hornets

Outlook: He's not the flashiest player on the list, but his toughness in the paint could really help a team like Dallas, Seattle or Boston. If he wants to bolt New Orleans and he's willing to play for the mid-level exception, he should be very popular this summer.

20. Alonzo Mourning, C, Heat Outlook: Mourning said he thinks he can play next season. No one is going to risk big money on him, but he'll make more than you think if he can pass a physical. Can Mourning really desert the Heat after all they've done for them. In our book, after two years of paid vacation, Mourning owes them a season or two at the veteran's minimum.

Best of the Rest: Dion Glover, SG, Hawks ®; DerMarr Johnson, SG, Hawks; Jumaine Jones, SF, Cavs ®; Donnell Harvey, PF, Nuggets; Jon Barry, SG, Pistons; Earl Boykins, PG, Warriors; James Posey, SG, Rockets ®; Reggie Miller, SG, Pacers; Eric Piatkowski, SG, Clippers; Travis Best, PG, Heat; LaPhonso Ellis, SF, Heat; Darrell Armstrong, PG, Magic; Kenny Anderson, PG, Hornets; Kenny Thomas, SF/PF, Sixers ®; Tyrone Hill, PF, Sixers; Derrick Coleman, PF, Sixers; Scott Williams, C, Suns; Antonio Daniels, PG/SG, Blazers; Scottie Pippen, SF, Blazers; Jim Jackson, SF, Kings; Stephen Jackson, SF, Spurs; Speedy Claxton, PG, Spurs; Elden Campbell, C, Sonics; Predrag Drobnjak, PF, Sonics; Rafer Alston, PG, Raptors; Voshon Lenard, SG, Raptors

Race for Arenas heats up

Speaking of hot free agents, Warriors fans are coming up with new ways to convince Gilbert Arenas that he should re-sign with Golden State this summer.

Gilbert Arenas

Point Guard

Golden State Warriors

Profile

2002-2003 SEASON STATISTICS

GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%

75 18.5 4.7 6.1 .438 .791

Clearly, after years of questionable moves, fans are leery that the Warriors will botch things up this summer and let Arenas slip away. The front office may not have much of choice. Because of restricted free agency rules relating to players with two years or less experience in the league, the Warriors need to either dump around $20 million in payroll this summer or convince Arenas to sign a $4.5 million deal with an opt out after next season.

Unfortunately for Warriors fans, several teams, including the Heat and Nuggets, have much more money to offer Arenas. Right now, according to several league sources, the going rate for his services will probably be around $7 million a year. That's a lot of money to leave on the table just to re-sign with the Warriors.

Still, fans are trying. There is a Web site -- www.SIGN-ARENAS.20FR.COM -- that allows fans to sign a petition encouraging Arenas to stay. The Web site also has links to a list of reasons why Arenas should stay in Golden State (replete with picture of it snowing in Denver), articles (the best contains a look at the worst Warriors ever), and an e-mail link to the team

So far, Arenas has liked what he has seen. "It's great that the fans are so fired up to keep me here, and I'm gonna keep playing my butt off for them and see what happens," Arenas told the San Francisco Chronicle.

Not to be outdone, fans in Denver have created their own site -- gogilbert.com -- imploring the soon-to-be-free agent to take the Nuggets' money and run. The site also has their own top-10 reasons why Arenas would be happy in Denver. They include this classic: "Which side of the San Andreas fault do you really want to be on?"

So where will Gilbert end up? His father recently said that he can't imagine Arenas wanting to leave California. However, I think the Nuggets could give Arenas, and his agent, Dan Fegan (who always follows the money), about $20 million extra reason to bolt the bay. If the Nuggets land a top-flight pick in the draft (like LeBron or Carmelo) and then let Arenas pick another running mate (what about Corey Maggette), would the Nuggets' offer be too much to pass on?

The clock is already ticking.

Weaving a Web of support for Warriors' Arenas

David Steele / San Francisco Chronicle

Is George Karl eyeing the Tar Heel job?

With Matt Doherty out at North Carolina, Kansas coach Roy Williams may be the frontrunner and Sixers head coach Larry Brown may be the sentimental favorite to replace him, but when the smoke clears from the smoldering ruins of the North Carolina basketball program, don't be shocked if Bucks head coach George Karl is wearing Carolina blue.

A well placed league source told Insider late on Monday that Karl, who once called the gig his "dream job," may attempt to bolt the Bucks for Chapel Hill.

"He's wanted this for a long time," the source told Insider. "I think he would've taken the job three year ago if [owner Herb] Kohl, would've let him. But with the way things are going in Milwaukee -- from a possible sale to the team to [GM] Ernie [Grunfeld] possibly leaving for Charlotte, I think he'll make the jump if they ask."

That's a distinct possibility, according to the source. Williams has indicated in the past that he's happy at Kansas, Brown, who turns 63 this summer, is winding down and Olympic commitments the next two years will hurt with recruiting. Other top college coaches will surely be mentioned, but none of them are as loyal as Karl.

"He'd be really great there," the source continued. "I think he's grown disenchanted with the NBA game. He feels guys just don't play the right way. He'd have much more control over that in college. I think it's just a great fit."

That could make things interesting for the Bucks. If Karl's gone, free agent Gary Payton will almost certainly follow him out the door. That wouldn't be the end of the world for Milwaukee if it happened. Clearing Payton's $12 million contract off the Bucks would put the team well below the luxury-tax threshold. And with Michael Redd, Desmond Mason, Tim Thomas, Marcus Haislip, Joel Przybilla, and Dan Gadzuric, the team still would have a young nucleus to build around.

Who'll be new head over Heels?

Tom Enlund / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

And again at No. 1: Williams

Caulton Tudor / Raleigh News & Observer

Brown says he's happy with Sixers

Ashley McGeachy Fox / Philadelphia Inquirer

Sources: Williams, Brown top picks to take over

Leonard Laye / Charlotte Observer

Peep Show

Portland Trail Blazers: Should the Blazers dump Rasheed Wallace this summer to make way for second-year power forward Zach Randolph? Randolph has been awesome this season for Portland, causing the Portland Tribune's Kerry Eggers to wonder if the team isn't better of trading Wallace (a free agent in 2004) and his $18 million a year contract while they can.

Chicago Bulls: GM Jerry Krause continues to insist that Jamal Crawford is in the Bulls' plans for next year. "We know what we have in Jamal," Krause told the Seattle Times. "We want Jamal here. He and Jay can live together. ... People say this guy is Jerry's guy and or that guy is Jerry's guy. Jamal knows how I feel. We've had some tough sessions. I've had some sessions where I've gotten very annoyed with him. But he responds. He's grown up. He doesn't sulk." Krause does expect Crawford to spend his summer in Chicago working out with the team, however. "Jamal has told me he's going to be here this summer and I believe it," Krause said. "Did I believe him last summer? I had my doubts. Do I believe him now? I think he'll be in our strength and conditioning program all summer long. If he does that, he doesn't have a worry in the world."

Washington Wizards: For a guy averaging 1.8 ppg, Charles Oakley had some awfully critical remarks of his teammates. "The same thing has been going on all year," Oakley told the Washington Post. "We're struggling and we shouldn't be struggling. We've got a lot of talent. Michael and [Jerry Stackhouse], a lot of veterans. Guys just aren't getting it. I don't know why. This late in the season, we're trying to make a run for the playoffs. Then if you [back into] the playoffs you're still going to lose because you don't know [what it takes]. When you get in the playoffs under .500 that means the league is weak. I think the team should be a lot better and the fans have been short [changed], cheated out of a lot this year. They've been really loyal, selling out. We should be in the playoffs, a fourth or fifth seed. We shouldn't be struggling to get in the playoffs. The fans have been behind us all year and we owe them that."

Dallas Mavericks: Is Eduardo Najera the key to the Mavs' success? According to the Dallas Morning News, the Mavericks are 9-1 when Najera starts and 24-3 when he plays 20 minutes. They also are 13-0 when he scores 10 or more points, 9-0 when he grabs at least eight rebounds and 15-1 when he gets three offensive rebounds. "That's what he does, he's our garbage-can man," guard Nick Van Exel said.

New York Knicks: GM Scott Layden gave coach Don Chaney a strong vote of support on Monday. "Coach Chaney is our coach," Layden told the N.Y. Daily News. "We've said that. That hasn't changed. Through the tough parts of the season and the good parts, he's kept this team together and kept them focused and got us through tough times."

New Jersey Nets: 2002 first-round pick Nenad Kristic will sign with the team early this summer, his agent, Marc Feingold told the N.Y. Post. "The Nets definitely want to bring him in for next season," Feingold said. "I'm confident that in the end he'll be a Net very soon." Kristic had a breakout year in Yugoslavia this season. He's grown to 7-foot-1 and gained 15 pounds this season. While Dikembe Mutombo may be on the way out, Kristic, who has been compared to Vlade Divac, could be the team's center of the future.

Houston Rockets: Yao Ming had a nice chat with David Stern on Monday. Our guess is that Stern did most of the talking but Yao did raise a concern with the commissioner about the over expansion of the game. "I wanted to ask," Yao told the Houston Chronicle, "if he planned to expand NBA basketball to the moon." Give him time Yao.

Two good players, one big position

Kerry Eggers / Portland Tribune

Krause says they want Crawford to be here

Percy Allen / Seattle Times

Oakley: Wizards Shortchanged Fans

Steve Wyche / Washington Post

Finley could return Thursday

Eddie Sefko / Dallas Morning News

Layden looks in on Don

Frank Isola / New York Daily News

Top Draft Pick Near Deal

Dave Curtis / New York Post

Rockets summary

Jonathan Feigen / Houston Chronicle