Insider Special: Best/Worst ~ Wizards

[Weez]

By David Aldridge

Special to ESPN.com

Editor's note: Here's a glimpse of the good -- and the bad -- that could happen to the 2003-04 Washington Wizards.

Perhaps Kwame Brown can finally stand tall with Michael Jordan not around.

Best Case Scenario

For the Wizards to break their pattern of mediocrity (one playoff appearance since 1988) and finally reach the postseason, the following three things must happen.

1. One of their young bigs must grow up. Not literally, though Kwame Brown is now a legitimate seven feet tall. Whether it's Brown, Jared Jeffries, Brendan Haywood or Etan Thomas, the Wizards need somebody to give them consistent presence at both ends in the middle. The best bet, it says here, is Jeffries, who's coming off an ACL tear that ended a promising rookie season. Washington's brass is toying with the idea of a lineup that would feature Jeffries at the four and Brown at the five.

2. Defensive disruptions. Yes, Gilbert Arenas is a blur with the ball, and he and Jerry Stackhouse will have their explosive scoring nights. But Arenas, Larry Hughes and Stackhouse have to get it done at the defensive end. The 6-foot-4 Arenas and the 6-6 Hughes are long and fast, and have to be active in the passing lanes. The more Washington disrupts its opponents in the halfcourt on defense and produces steals, the more the Wizards will be able to create early offense and take advantage of their young legs.

3. Create a real home-court advantage. The Wizards were a pedestrian 23-18 at MCI Center last season, following home marks of 22-19, 12-29 and 17-24 the previous three seasons. With their very young roster, and lack of stars that will get calls down the stretch, it's not likely the Wizards will be formidable on the road. To get anywhere near .500, they'll have to clean up when they're wearing the home whites.

Worst Case Scenario

If the Wizards struggle again this season, it will likely be because these three things happen.

1. More turnovers than J Lo. Despite his offensive skills, there's still a question of whether Arenas (1.86 assist/turnover ratio last season) is a true point guard. The lack of a pure ballhandler is one reason Washington brought veteran Chris Whitney back late in the offseason (second-round pick Steve Blake may be the best of the bunch in time). And none of Washington's bigs has great hands. The Wizards' biggest problem will be keeping the ball out of the opposition's clutches.

2. Growing pains. With nine of Washington's likely 12 players younger than 27 (Stackhouse, Christian Laettner and Jahidi White are the graybeards), the likelihood of the Wizards picking up Eddie Jordan's system quickly and without error is almost nil. That means lots of busted assignments on offense and late rotations on defense -- which get a team killed -- and lack of respect from the striped shirts.

3. MJ hangover. The Wizards sold out all 41 of their home games last season and led the league in regular-season attendance. A lot of those butts in seats came to see one Michael Jeffrey Jordan. Without his presence, will Washington return to its familiar pattern during the pre-Jordan decade, when there were as many people rooting for the opposition as the home team?

David Aldridge, who covers the NBA for ESPN, is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.