Insider Special: Best/Worst ~ Raptors

[Weez]

By Marc Stein

ESPN.com

Editor's note: Here's a glimpse of the good -- and the bad -- that could happen to the 2003-04 Toronto Raptors.

The play of rookie Chris Bosh has been a pleasant surprise.

Best Case Scenario

Three things need to happen for the Raptors to rejoin the clutch of teams trying to snare one of the last playoff spots in the East ... or at least re-establish themselves as a .500 team.

1. Stay healthy. That's not exactly a news flash, and certainly not exclusive to the Raptors, but it applies to Toronto maybe more than any other team in the league after the Raps set an NBA record with 519 man-games lost to injury last season. Vince Carter, for starters, is said to be healthy again, and Lamond Murray is back after missing all of last season. Those two should restore some juice to Toronto's offense. Trouble is, Toronto has been plagued by injuries for so long that there is now an expectation that Vince (or someone else important) will go down long-term. It got so bad last season, remember, that the Raptors never had 12 healthy bodies to dress for a game. Perhaps a spell of sustained health early in the season will get the injury stuff out of the Raptors' minds and allow them to focus on everything else important.

2. Chris Bosh looks as good during the regular season as he has during the exhibition season. Raptors general manager Glen Grunwald wasn't wrong last May when he said that the draft starts at No. 4 -- meaning that the team with the fourth pick, which turned out to be Toronto, had the first tough choice to make after the inevitable selections of LeBron James, Darko Milicic and Carmelo Anthony. The good news? Toronto appears to have made the right choice. You never want to get too excited about what happens in the preseason -- either way -- but Bosh has not looked out of place in the pro game. Not at all. He's a shot-blocking presence already and his offensive game is developing ahead of schedule. If the Raptors continue to get what Bosh has given them in the exhibitions -- 14.5 points and 7.5 rebounds through the first four -- their otherwise unimposing front line starts to look passable. And it should only help Bosh that he's playing north of the border -- out of the rookie spotlight, in other words -- while all the attention is focused on LBJ, Darko and Melo.

3. The Vinsanity prevails for 82 games ... or close to it. Again, not exactly a news flash here. The Raptors will only be as good as Carter is this season, and Vince has two injury-filled seasons to make up for. If a summer with Team USA was the spark Carter claims it was, Toronto could certainly rejoin the race for No. 8 in the East. If he goes down again, the Raptors figure to reclaim last place in the Central.

Worst Case Scenario

The Raptors will continue to be lottery-bound and win less than 30 games if the following three things happen.

1. They have to rely on their depth. Reason? Because they really don't have any depth. We're actually fans here of the athletic Jerome Moiso, but you've got to stretch considerably more than Moiso's impressive wingspan to label him a marquee free-agent addition. Toronto, sadly, had to label Moiso as such. Pick almost any position and the Raptors are undermanned, meaning that they're relying heavily on the returns of Carter and Murray, the hiring of coach Kevin O'Neill and the potential of Bosh to create a new atmosphere.

2. The Raptors are swallowed up by the two big holes in their lineup. Remember that saying about point guard and center being the toughest positions to fill? Don't have to tell it Toronto. Alvin Williams isn't a pure point, but he's the Raptors' best option there. Antonio Davis is a power forward, but O'Neill will have to play either Davis or Jerome Williams -- or maybe Bosh -- at the five. All those guys are really power forwards. You can get by without significant size in the East, but the Raptors aren't just small. Struggling to fill those two key positions, Toronto also ranked as one of the league's worst defensive teams last season: 29th in opponent field-goal percentage (.461), 28th in 3-point defense (.375). O'Neill will fix some of that, but the personnel hasn't changed significantly.

3. Personalities clash. O'Neill, again, is certain to improve the defense, but he's a rookie head coach with a well-known temper. As much as Toronto needed a disciplinarian after the laid-back Lenny Wilkens era, it remains to be seen how the Raptors' veterans respond to O'Neill's prodding. Williams, just to name one vet, has struggled for minutes in the preseason, even though his rebound-and-hustle package would figure to appeal to O'Neill as much as anyone on the Raps' roster. It's also no secret that Davis would prefer to be traded to a contending team, and we're still a bit shocked that Carter admitted publicly that he wanted Toronto to trade the pick that begat Bosh for a veteran. For a guy who hasn't appreciated the constant criticism over the past couple of seasons, Carter didn't exactly offer the rookie a warm welcome. Bosh appears to have silenced any doubters already, inside and outside of the locker room, but stay tuned. T-Dot, as the e-mailers love to call it, hasn't been the happiest place for hoops lately. Winning is the fastest way to change the mood, but the skeptics (hello) don't see a roster that can win (or lift the gloom) this season.

Marc Stein is the senior NBA writer for ESPN.com. To e-mail him, click here. Also, send Stein a question for possible use on ESPNEWS.